Senior Bowl storylines to watch: Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.? Which juniors will impress?
By
Dane Brugler
Jan 29, 2024
Evaluators traveling to Mobile, Ala., for Senior Bowl week know to be prepared. Like where to find the best seafood (Felix’s Fish Camp is my go-to) or which BBQ joint is a must-visit (I haven’t had a bad meal at Moe’s Original BBQ).
That preparation also extends to the practice field, where more than 120 NFL Draft hopefuls will be auditioning for pro teams this week. Who has the most on the line? Who has something to prove?
Here are seven key storylines that evaluators will be tracking throughout the week:
7. Which juniors make the most of the opportunity?
For the first time, all underclassmen are now eligible for pre-draft all-star games — and several are taking advantage of that rule change at the Senior Bowl.
Before the season,
NFL scouts saw
Penn State cornerback
Kalen King as a rising prospect who could crack the first round. However, his 2023 tape didn’t match up with those expectations, and one-on-ones at Senior Bowl practices will be his chance to remind scouts of that first-round potential.
Staying in the secondary, Miami safety
Kamren Kinchens was receiving plenty of first-round buzz over the summer, but the 2023 season was a roller coaster. The current feedback from NFL scouts points to the third round for Kinchens, so he is making the right call to compete in Mobile. With a strong week, he can cement himself in the top 75 — and push for a spot in the top 50.
On offense, Oregon center
Jackson Powers-Johnson is one of my highest-graded players at this year’s event. With what he put on film this season, the junior is already in the mix to be the first interior offensive lineman drafted. But with
Duke’s
Graham Barton and West Virginia’s
Zach Frazier unable to participate due to injury, Powers-Johnson can make a strong statement in Mobile about why he is the draft’s top center.
Tennessee’s
Jaylen Wright is competing to be one of the first five running backs drafted. He is dangerous with the ball in his hands (FBS-best 7.39 yards per carry in 2023), but the focus this week will be on catching the ball and blocking drills. With his speed and contact balance, he reminds me a lot of
Jerome Ford.
6. Which “small school” prospects will receive the Senior Bowl bump?
From
Quinn Meinerz (
Wisconsin-Whitewater) and
Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington) in recent years to all-time greats like Terrell Owens (Chattanooga) and Larry Allen (Sonoma State), the Senior Bowl has a rich history of showcasing “small school” prospects. Last year, non-FBS prospects like
Cody Mauch,
Marte Mapu and
Andrei Iosivas boosted their draft stock in Mobile.
Pass rusher Jalyx Hunt played safety at Cornell before transferring to Houston Christian (FCS), where he switched positions and put himself on the NFL radar the past two seasons. He is still very raw with his leverage points and rush plan, but a team looking for a long, explosive pass rusher to mold will be very interested in him on Day 3.
A pair of FCS running backs who are projected Day 3 draft picks and could be standouts during Senior Bowl week: South Dakota State’s
Isaiah Davis and New Hampshire’s Dylan Laube. Davis has really good feet for a power back but doesn’t have a vast resume as a third-down back. NFL scouts will be focused on how he catches the ball and holds up during pass pro drills. On the contrary, Laube might be the best pass-catching back in the draft (see: his record-breaking 2023
Central Michigan performance). It will be interesting to see him match up with several of the draft’s top linebackers.
5. Underrated pass rushers will be a theme
There are numerous players from the two Super Bowl rosters who became better-known prospects at the Senior Bowl. The
San Francisco 49ers are a perfect example. Players like
Jauan Jennings,
Dre Greenlaw and
Kyle Juszczyk used the Senior Bowl stage to help their draft stock on Day 3 and get a head start on productive pro careers.
Several Senior Bowl pass rushers stand out as prospects who aren’t well-known names now but could make noise this week and rise.
If you only watched the Eastern Michigan tape, you would think
Western Michigan’s
Marshawn Kneeland was a first-round player in this draft. With his length, power and effort, he has the foundation of a pass rusher who will stick in the league. Don’t be surprised if Kneeland sneaks into the top-60 mix.
I’m intrigued by Michigan’s
Braiden McGregor. The words “fast” and “violent” showed up multiple times in my tape notes. He averaged fewer than 30 snaps per game as part of the Wolverines’ rotation, but he made a difference when he took the field. There’s something there.
Washington State’s
Brennan Jackson might never ascend to NFL starter status, but he can be a valuable worker bee in a rotation. His urgency and relentless hustle will show up during drills this week.
A late add to the Senior Bowl,
UConn’s
Eric Watts passes the eye test at 6 feet 5 1/2 and 270 pounds with 36 1/4-inch arms. A standout week can take him from borderline draftable to solid Day 3 pick.
4. NFL teams will be WR shopping — and the options are intriguing.
In several ways, the Senior Bowl has become a wide receivers showcase event. A year ago,
Tank Dell and
Jayden Reed were uncoverable, and
Michael Wilson and
Puka Nacua consistently performed at high levels each practice. Which receivers will jump out this year?
Considered by many to be the top senior receiver in the draft,
Western Kentucky’s
Malachi Corley has Deebo Samuels-like skills with his ability to work underneath and after the catch. He wasn’t consistently used as a downfield target, so his deep-ball tracking will be watched closely during drills.
Georgia’s
Ladd McConkey and Michigan’s
Roman Wilson are undersized, which puts a cap on how early they’ll be drafted. But good luck covering either of these guys. Both have big-time speed and an understanding of how to leverage that speed to get open. I’m a massive fan of both on Day 2.
One of the biggest “risers” since the summer has been South Carolina’s
Xavier Legette. He has outstanding size (6-1, 219) and straight-line speed, but scouts will be focused on how he does at the top of routes versus man corners. Right now, most NFL grades are in the third-round range.
Arizona’s
Jacob Cowing doesn’t have the same type of suddenness, but I’m betting he will receive Dell comps throughout the week because of their near-identical size and blazing speed. With a strong week, Cowing might get a Dell-inspired bump come draft time.
Rice’s Luke McCaffery is one of the draft’s best receivers at playing through contact.
North Carolina’s
Devontez Walker can run and has ball skills that will land him on Day 2.
Florida’s
Ricky Pearsall is very rhythmic in his movements and has sticky hands.
I could keep going, but the word count for this article would get out of hand.
3. The quarterback buzz will only get louder about a few Senior Bowl passers
The two most notable QBs this week are
Bo Nix and
Michael Penix Jr. (more on them later). But I’m betting there will be buzz on a few other passers coming out of Mobile.
The quarterback prospect who can make the greatest jump during the draft process is South Carolina’s
Spencer Rattler. In terms of pure arm talent, Rattler matches up with almost everyone else in the draft. His timing and sense of urgency were not NFL-level on tape, but he was also stuck with one of the worst offensive line situations in college football. With all of the baggage he brings to the draft process, Rattler will be the most interviewed player at this year’s Senior Bowl.
Tulane’s
Michael Pratt has the tools to be an NFL starter — and if he were drafted ahead of Penix, that wouldn’t be too surprising. The AAC Offensive Player of the Year is clean in his setup and delivers a quick, accurate stroke to layer the football between levels of the defense. He doesn’t have the high-level physical traits to carry an NFL offense, but he also doesn’t play with panic and knows where to go with the football. I don’t see a significant gap between what Pratt and
Kenny Pickett offer you in the NFL.
I’m not a believer in Tennessee’s Joe Milton finding consistency at the next level, but he has a truly special arm. There will be “oohs” and “ahhs” during Senior Bowl practices when he shows off his effortless velocity in distance and RPMs. For a sixth-year player, Milton’s shaky decision-making and ball placement remain concerns, but he has throws on every tape that give scouts hope — and I bet the Senior Bowl is similar.
2. Who will be the Senior Bowl’s highest-drafted offensive and defensive players?
On defense, I have to go with
UCLA pass rusher
Laiatu Latu with Toledo cornerback
Quinyon Mitchell as a close runner-up. Both can be top-20 picks in April. My guess would have been Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy, but unfortunately, he had to bow out as he rests some minor injuries.
Latu is John Wick. He doesn’t have overwhelming length or strength. He isn’t a super athlete. But he has a killer instinct and wins with feel, hand technique and determination. Over his 25 games at UCLA, he totaled 129 total pressures — which is a wild number. The medicals will play a substantial part in his draft grade, but at this point, Latu is still expected to be drafted somewhere in the top 20.
On offense, the answer almost certainly will be an offensive tackle (unless a team falls in love with Nix), but which one? My early guess is
Oklahoma’s
Tyler Guyton.
Oregon State tackle
Taliese Fuaga is the more NFL-ready prospect and arguably the best run blocker in the draft, but Guyton is a different level of athlete with exciting upside.
1. As Nix and Penix go head-to-head one last time, what will it mean for their NFL Draft projections?
The quarterbacks are always the stars of the show. At least one Senior Bowl quarterback has been drafted in the first round in five of the last six years, including a few who won playoff games this season (
Josh Allen,
Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield). This year, the two names at the top of the list — Nix and Penix — are very familiar with each other and will attract the most attention. Both will be on the National team, which presents a unique opportunity to evaluate one after the other during drills for immediate comparison.
Nix has as impressive a college resume as you can have, with more than 17,000 total yards. He also has NFL-starting traits. But the main question for the rest of the draft process: Does he project as a midlevel or low-end starter?
I mentioned this in my most recent mock draft, but the feedback from scouts on Nix’s draft projection is wide-ranging — some believe he’ll be drafted top-25; others think he should still be around in the third round. Nix enters the week as a possible first-rounder. He could leave the week as a concrete first-rounder.
The public narratives around Penix are interesting. He was considered a top-10 pick (and possible contender at No. 1) on social media after his playoff performance against
Texas. That quieted very quickly after his outing in the title game versus
Michigan’s defense, the closest thing he played to an NFL-level defense. Though Penix should perform well during Senior Bowl practices, his body of work is inconsistent, which is why he isn’t considered a lock for the top 50.
Penix led Washington over
Oregon three times the past two seasons. But right now, Nix has the edge over Penix as an NFL prospect for most in the league. Will Senior Bowl week change that?
