2021 Random Cowboys Stuff Thread

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Simpleton said:
Their objective hard stats/formation tracking are way different than their subjective (often stupid) rankings.
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Even though PFF states that they further penalize completions giving up first downs, but seeing their grade scale is only -2 to 2 per play, I think there's not enough distinction between a successful vs failed play.

For example, if it's 3rd and 12 and cornerback gives up 9 yard pass and makes immediate tackle to force 4th and 3 (assuming a punt in a normal game situation), does PFF give CB a negative score? To me, that's a successful play and CB should be rewarded, let alone penalized...say PFF gives a neutral to positive 0.0 to 1.0.

Alternatively, if a CB gave up a 9 yard pass on a 3rd and 7, PFF probably assigns -1.0 or -0.5.

Is -1.0 failure vs a 1.0 success enough of a variance? One play ended a drive. The other gave up a first down, sure, but didn't necessarily give up points; The opponent may only be at their own 40. In this hypothetical, the two plays shouldn't cancel each other out. The 'successful' play should be worth several times more than the 'failed' first down.

Just way too many game situations - field position, score, time remaining - to factor, in addition to the quality of the coverage, for there to only be a -2 to 2 scale.
 
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They talked about this very subject on the break yesterday and even specifically called out PFF.

I think the Break guys made some good points that we haven't mentioned (some of this is me extrapolating on their points).

1. PFF seems to think Diggs being targeted a lot is evidence that teams think he's vulnerable and not actually playing well

The truth is Diggs has mostly been mirroring the opponent's best receiver (and by the way often keeping that receiver pretty quiet - McLaurin for instance). Teams have been throwing at Diggs because the alternative is you take your best receiver out of the game.

2. If Diggs is being targeted more than your average CB, then it stands to reason that judging him by raw yardage doesn't make sense.

3. It would then make a hell of a lot more sense to judge him on something like opposing QB rating. And QB rating against Diggs is something like 55 (which of course is very low and makes Diggs look way better).

4. Diggs' raw yardage given up is skewed by just a couple big plays that probably shouldn't even be held against him (like the 70 pass from NE that could easily be on Kazee). Which calls into question PFF's methodology in the first place.

In short, they also think PFF is full of it.
 
Genghis Khan said:
They talked about this very subject on the break yesterday and even specifically called out PFF.

I think the Break guys made some good points that we haven't mentioned (some of this is me extrapolating on their points).

1. PFF seems to think Diggs being targeted a lot is evidence that teams think he's vulnerable and not actually playing well

The truth is Diggs has mostly been mirroring the opponent's best receiver (and by the way often keeping that receiver pretty quiet - McLaurin for instance). Teams have been throwing at Diggs because the alternative is you take your best receiver out of the game.

2. If Diggs is being targeted more than your average CB, then it stands to reason that judging him by raw yardage doesn't make sense.

3. It would then make a hell of a lot more sense to judge him on something like opposing QB rating. And QB rating against Diggs is something like 55 (which of course is very low and makes Diggs look way better).

4. Diggs' raw yardage given up is skewed by just a couple big plays that probably shouldn't even be held against him (like the 70 pass from NE that could easily be on Kazee). Which calls into question PFF's methodology in the first place.

In short, they also think PFF is full of it.
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Through all this micro-analysis of why grade is this or that, bottom line, no effin way is Diggs #45.

We can debate that without interceptions he could be #20 or something, but fucking #45?

…and #45 seems to be his highest grade of the season thus far. :lol
 
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boozeman said:
What PFF has done is arm morons with what they believe are legitimate numbers to use as fact as the basis for their idiotic takes. Like all stats, useful but only an imbecile uses them as basis.
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There it is.

PFF has given lazy writers an easy way to support decisions without doing the work themselves.Gives them moral superiority since it is a paid service it makes it "elite"

While i'm sure it is useful, people can stop acting like it is biblical.
 
Genghis Khan said:
I've heard people say this, but I have yet to see real evidence that this is true.
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I don't read it but I think Sturm uses their stats for like % of the time teams are in cover-2 vs. cover-3 vs. cover-1 or man vs. zone.

I have no idea if it's accurate but since they supposedly partner with AWS or whatever I assume it is.

That's what I mean by their objective stats, the subjective "grades" are horse shit.
 
Simpleton said:
I don't read it but I think Sturm uses their stats for like % of the time teams are in cover-2 vs. cover-3 vs. cover-1 or man vs. zone.

I have no idea if it's accurate but since they supposedly partner with AWS or whatever I assume it is.

That's what I mean by their objective stats, the subjective "grades" are horse shit.
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Given how bad their grading system is, I'd question the accuracy of those stats. I'm sure you can get those types of things elsewhere anyway.
 
Genghis Khan said:
4. Diggs' raw yardage given up is skewed by just a couple big plays that probably shouldn't even be held against him (like the 70 pass from NE that could easily be on Kazee). Which calls into question PFF's methodology in the first place.
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I also wonder if they take into account great coverage on plays like this.





Sure he was technically beat for a 43 yard TD but the coverage was outstanding. Cam Sims just made an incredible catch to wrestle the ball away from him.

Personally I'd still give a DB good marks on plays like this. IMO, criticizing Diggs' coverage on a play like this would be like blaming Rodney Harrison for David Tyree's helmet catch.
 
1bigfan13 said:
I also wonder if they take into account great coverage on plays like this.





Sure he was technically beat for a 43 yard TD but the coverage was outstanding. Cam Sims just made an incredible catch to wrestle the ball away from him.

Personally I'd still give a DB good marks on plays like this. IMO, criticizing Diggs' coverage on a play like this would be like blaming Rodney Harrison for David Tyree's helmet catch.
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I think he’s been beaten badly twice this year if I remember correctly. Other than that, he’s pretty much contested every big play a wr has managed to come down with.

The guy is playing great football, even if he didn’t have all the interceptions, say he had 3 or 4, I’d still say he’s having a really good year.

PFF is wrong about this guy.
 
1bigfan13 said:
I also wonder if they take into account great coverage on plays like this.





Sure he was technically beat for a 43 yard TD but the coverage was outstanding. Cam Sims just made an incredible catch to wrestle the ball away from him.

Personally I'd still give a DB good marks on plays like this. IMO, criticizing Diggs' coverage on a play like this would be like blaming Rodney Harrison for David Tyree's helmet catch.
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PFF accounts for this. They brag about grading the performance, not play result.

“”
…the result of the play does not change the defender’s grade. If he’s beaten on a deep pass that is dropped, the grade remains the same as it would have been if it had been a 40-yard completion
“”

www.pff.com

How PFF grades coverage

PFF's Steve Palazzolo explains how PFF grades coverage.
www.pff.com www.pff.com
 
data said:
the result of the play does not change the defender’s grade. If he’s beaten on a deep pass that is dropped, the grade remains the same as it would have been if it had been a 40-yard completion
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Retarded. If a defender can get into an opponent's head and make him drop a pass, does that not count? Shit is too subjective.
 
Iamtdg said:
Retarded. If a defender can get into an opponent's head and make him drop a pass, does that not count? Shit is too subjective.
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and, again, they undervalue interceptions. If you read their grading system the maximum points of 2 would be awarded to a ‘skillful’ pick-six. That’s it. One of the most powerful plays in a game is 2. For perspective, an average play would be like a 0.0.

Furthermore, PFF won’t award a pick six the max 2.0 if INT came off a ‘luck’ deflection or bad pass.

Think about that…the value of a pick six, that’s three components in one play:
  • Ends opponent drive. You could have a shutdown corner play perfect coverage and knock down 5 passes in a single drive, but because the opponent converts third down after third down on the next play, the opponent scores 7 points. One pick six equates practically perfect play of the other 10 defensive teammates.
  • Saves field position by eliminating a punt (unless INT was on a bomb) to set up offense
  • Pick six replaces a practically perfect offensive drive, where offenses average 3-4 per game.
In essence, a pick-six replaces a guesstimate of 10 well-executed plays (three and out, blocked punt, 6-play TD drive by offense). How can you put an INT, let alone pick six, on the same grading scale as a pass defended?

It’s like reducing the destruction of an atomic bomb to an excellent gunshot.

I don’t know how they weigh/mix plays together, but it sounds like Diggs giving up two or three 15-yard completions would cancel out a ‘skilled’ pick-six. Insane.
 
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