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By Bob Sturm Dec 14, 2021
Family meeting time. We need to have a dialogue about Dak Prescott.
This isn’t about fueling the haters and the folks who love nothing more than Dallas in a funk. It is about acknowledging an issue and then trying to trace back to the source of it so we can gain an understanding.
It is time to discuss what is going on with QB1. I don’t think it is wise for us to act like everything is fine anymore. It clearly is not.
Nobody has ever said he was the best quarterback in the business and that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers better slide over and make room for the new QB genius. But, for the first six weeks following his contract being signed and his leg being healed, he would happily go toe to toe with either. In fact, he did with Brady for all the world to see in Week 1.
Then the next week he pulled a win out in Los Angeles. He then rolled through a three-game home winning streak where he was simply dominant. Following that, he put up 445 yards on a Bill Belichick defense and again showed a national audience that he had arrived.
After six weeks, you could make a case that he was the league’s MVP. You can see for yourself both above and below the double-red lines that signify both the Cowboys bye week and his calf injury that caused him to miss the Sunday night win in Minnesota (courtesy, ProFootballReference.com):
The differences are stark. He has been a fantastic QB and a very below-average one in the same season with two subsets of numbers that range six starts apiece
I mean, look at these splits from TruMedia:
Where do we start? The passer rating dropped from great to lousy. As did the completion percentage, yards/attempt, TD/Att, INT/Att, Sack%, TD/INT differentials and 1D/attempt.
The last column shows how much blitzing has also dropped. We will touch on that in a minute. But, man …
We all want an easy answer. Preferably in as few words and clear definitions as possible.
Here were some of the comments from Monday’s Morning After piece:
Again, like last week, I am not going to sit here and tell you I have all the answers. I have theories and none of them sound great to me. I can do segments on this on the radio and present to you my best thoughts and I can write a piece like this one. But, I am not an offensive coordinator and there are a million things I probably don’t see that they do. I want to acknowledge all of this. Complex questions require complex answers and I cannot offer much above what you see here each week.
These are league rankings for many metrics from NFL Next Gen.
First, here are league rankings for QBs who qualify for Weeks 1-6:
Weeks 1-6
Weeks 9-14
I am not expecting you to understand all of these numbers, but the two I highlighted with red arrows will get a little time here.
EPA RANK: Pass Expected Points Added. Derived from the Next Gen Stats Expected Points model, which measures how each play potentially affects the score of the game relative to the situation. EPA is the change in the expected points value from pre-play to post-play.
SR RANK: Dropback Success Rate. Percentage of dropbacks resulting in positive EPA. This can be thought of as plays that “keep the offense on schedule.”
Before the bye week, Prescott was second in EPA rank and No. 1 in SR Rank. After the bye, he is now 21st and 25th. Again, words cannot describe how disturbing this all is and how impossible it is to have a great explanation of how someone goes from in the MVP discussion to where these past six weeks have been.
The Cowboys can win a Super Bowl with where they were and probably can’t now if this continues. The killer detail in all of this is that now the defense looks serious about doing its part. In other words, this defense and that pre-bye week offense might be the best team in the sport.
Is that simply the tease of all teases? You might find that only Prescott can handle that.
I have a bunch of theories. We will not have a Film Study this week because I want to use our space for this. Let’s go through each of them:
1. Is it all about the calf injury and is he playing too hurt to play well?
I would never say it is all the calf, but I also would not say it is not the calf at all. He strained his calf at the end of the New England game and obviously those before and after stats could be tied to the injury, but he continues to say he is fine and he can play through it. He has made some exceptional throws since the injury and if we give the calf muscle all of the blame, then he should not and would not be playing at all.
He is able to play, but is it ruining his mechanics and causing him some doubt? Almost certainly. The pick six on Sunday was a great example of a player not showing the confidence to throw off one foot while on the run because he doesn’t believe that the muscle is strong enough. We have seen more than a few errant throws from running to his right – which is something Prescott used to do at a very high level.
He also is not helping himself by running when the secondary is too populated. Again, is that an issue where he can but he has to convince himself that he can risk himself more as a runner? Where the mental blocks are more than physical blocks is pure speculation, but I do think there is merit. If once or twice a game deal he could deal with coverage by using his feet to move the chains, everything might fix itself quickly.
Is it the calf? To some extent. But, that doesn’t answer it all or even close to it all.
2. Did Vic Fangio really release the “secret” of how to defend Dallas — or, asked another way — is Dallas’ offense seeing different tactics than it was?
Those are probably two different things. Fangio was quick to pat himself on the back, but in our study of that game, it was not very clear that he did much differently and as you may recall, they just traded Von Miller and were in a real pickle for edge rushers, so their defense was pretty basic and vanilla. The Cowboys were “off” in that game and to give it more credence than that would require a clear indication that future opponents would copy what they did and I think that is a massive stretch — but it makes for a more entertaining and simple narrative.
It did certainly lend an idea that maybe blitzing Prescott is a bad idea — he is destroying it! — and maybe we should do just the opposite. When you consider how much he is blitzed, it is worth noting that he was up at 32.4 percent in the league (5th) in the first six weeks and since has been blitzed 21.4 percent for 22nd. For the season he is at 20th in frequency of blitzes — he is being blitzed less, which is putting more players in coverage.
But, the blitzes are still happening. As much? No. But, Washington sent 14 blitzes which is a pretty healthy number.
3. Are the coverages the same?
In the first six weeks, Prescott saw a number of different coverage looks. New England plays all man coverage and Philadelphia plays none. The Panthers played a lot of man and the Chargers didn’t do much. Prescott obliterated all of them.
In the past six weeks, Washington and the Raiders played all zones while the Broncos, Chiefs and Falcons played almost all man. The Saints tried to play everything.
In total, it would be difficult to say they are seeing “much more man” or “much more zone.” However, I do think teams are doing a better job of mixing things up and more importantly rolling into coverages post-snap so that Prescott doesn’t totally know what he is seeing. The disguises are definitely doing the job.
4. How much is the run game causing all of this? What about what the Cowboys are facing defensively by deployment?
Stay with me here, because this all matters.
Is Dallas seeing more 2-high safeties? I put up the two looks below from Next Gen about where defenders are deployed at the snap. The box count is now lighter, but the safeties are similar. Take a look:
Weeks 1-6
Weeks 9-14
Light Box % has dropped plenty: Percentage of carries against six-or-fewer defenders in the box.
Loaded Box % has stayed the same: Percentage of carries where there are more defenders than blockers in the box.
Here might be where it is all happening. If you are disguising coverages on the back end, you are making a choice to defend the Cowboys differently. Defenses are telling the Cowboys that they are no longer feared in running the ball and opponents are going to make them one-dimensional. Dallas laughed before because the passing game would suffice.
Now there are too many players in coverage and Dallas never makes them pay up front. Prescott doesn’t run and the running back can’t run, which brings us to where Ezekiel Elliott is right now.
Here is TruMedia with the full team run numbers during this slump:
Elliott is hurt. Tony Pollard is hurt. Dallas doesn’t really have options behind that. The offensive line has been unstable and definitely not up to grade. But, the real killer is that teams are not stacking the box. They are actually stopping the Cowboys easier with less deployment of troops. That is a bad combination.
5. What about all of the injuries?
This one might be too obvious, but yes, having your pieces would help. Of course, about 31 other teams would sign up for this solution, too.
Elliott, Pollard, Prescott, Tyron Smith and Blake Jarwin are all hurt. Those are the ones we know about. There are probably more.
Health would help for sure. But, nobody has time right now for all of this.
The Cowboys have to run the ball better and that will make the passing easier. Kellen Moore and Prescott know this, but when the game is happening and when Elliott is running into the line and falling down because he isn’t right and Pollard is inactive … well, here we are again.
Ezekiel Elliott Next Gen run chart
By now your head might be spinning, but this is the deal.
You are being pushed into uncomfortable spots because you are proving to struggle. When you struggle in the NFL, opposing coaches make you prove it to them that you have a solution. But, through it all, you can see Moore and Prescott try to push through all of this on the fly.
Prescott is forcing the ball because he knows he has to make the opponents pay. That often compounds the issues because now you are trying to make it happen and then make a mistake. Your confidence is shaken, you try extra hard the next time, and before long you are chasing your tail.
What is the issue? It’s 10 things. This is what a slump feels like. On top of it, people begin to question whether you were ever that good in the first place. Mental gymnastics make the battle even harder.
Are we having fun yet?
Again, this is why I come back to this continuously — the Cowboys are 9-4. Not 4-9. Remember this. Remember the point is winning games and the Cowboys are winning 70 percent of them. That might not be the best, but it is a spot most would love to trade spots with you on.
Embrace the struggle and the grind. It isn’t easy, but it has to be what gets you out of bed every day. Get better. Control what you can control.
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
Weekly data: Week 14 — at Washington
No team is winning anything with six trips into the red zone and one touchdown. This was a problem that seemed fatal earlier, got fixed, but only temporarily.
The NFL averages 5.5 yards per play. You shouldn’t win games at 4.1, but the defense did you a solid.
Dak Prescott throw chart
Yikes.
The throw chart is very bad and a sign of an offense that is simply lost. The two red dots were two of four passes that were turnover-worthy and that number is maybe the most disconcerting of them all.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse with a film study. You saw the game. It is not good right now. But, we have established that for 2,200 words.
I am interested in your theories, but like mine, they will take you all over. I think his legs will unlock many solutions, but that might be as big a mental hurdle as everything else.
We have complimented Prescott for years about his mental toughness. Now is where he can demonstrate it because it would be easy to make things worse by just watching film.
And yes, this is where Moore needs to prove he has made progress, too. Fixing this is his only job.
