Week 2 Game Day Chatter | Giants at Cowboys| 9-16-2018

[Cowboysrock55]

Yeah, I get that guys who wing it around at 300 ypg can still be losers, no one is arguing that. But you can't really be successful CONSISTENTLY, year in, year out, at 200 ypg. The threshold to even being a bus-driver success story like Flacco or Wilson, kinda the lower-tier "good" QBs, is like 230-240 ypg.

You know Goff didn't average 240 YPG passing last year?

 

[Smitty]

You know Goff didn't average 240 YPG passing last year?

Yes he did.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Don't bother responding to any of the posts of substance. I know you can't really rebut them anyway.

Lol you pick random numbers out of your ass and bitch that Dak has to meet them to be acceptable. You claim that a QB has to have 240 YPG passing to win consistently. Yet have no justification for this. Look up the stats. You're just making stuff up to justify your opinion. No reason to rebut nonsense from you.

 

[Smitty]

Lol you pick random numbers out of your ass and bitch that Dak has to meet them to be acceptable. You claim that a QB has to have 240 YPG passing to win consistently. Yet have no justification for this. Look up the stats. You're just making stuff up to justify your opinion. No reason to rebut nonsense from you.

Find me a top QB who averages less than 230 ypg.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The missed TD to Rico was atrocious.

You'd expect any backup to make that play.

I don't know what his deal is, but if he can't start making easy plays with his arm then it is still going to be a long, lousy, boring season.

Expect a lot of 17-13 type losses.

Yeah even you can complete that pass. Not sure what the hell happened but it doesn't get much easier than that.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Find me a top QB who averages less than 230 ypg.

Cam Newton

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Find me a top QB who averages less than 230 ypg.

Or if you want to go back through history guys like Aikman

 

[Smitty]

It's not "random."

It's called, gee, let's look at all the best QBs. Here is a stat that they have in common: They all pass for like 240, 250, 260 ypg or more.

Now lets look at all the replacement level QBs, the Alex Smiths, the Tyrod Taylors, etc. Here is a stat they all have in common: They generally don't pass for like 240, 250 ypg. More like 220-230.

Now let's look at all the loser QBs who get drummed out of the league, the Tim Tebows and Colin Kaepernicks and Quincy Carters. Here is a stat they all have in common: Their ypg hovers around 200 or less.

Uh oh. Where is Dak Prescott falling on all this?

I'm being random, though.

But oh, Jared Goff didn't light the world on fire as a rookie. Yeah, no shit, it's called.... he was a rookie. By time these guys are in their 3rd, 4th, 5th years, they have generally ascended to better than 220 ypg, when they are in their primes.

Dak is regressing.

 

[p1_]

Booze said it last night, and the stat line says it this morning. Sean Lee had 3 tackles. You read that right.
Something is amiss with this guy, and Vander Esch had 7 tackles, good for send behind Cheesi Chido.

 

[Smitty]

Or if you want to go back through history guys like Aikman

No, I'd prefer not to go back to a different NFL era, considering I said "passing for 200 ypg is not a formula for success in TODAY'S NFL". Try again.

Cam Newton

Cam Newton averages 230 on the nose. He's also a borderline top 10 NFL QB whose team fluctuates in or out of the playoffs, and relies heavily on his defense to get him there and do postseason damage. Newton is also unparalleled in his athletic ability and ability to generate yards on the ground.

Prescott has some of those abilities but he's not as athletic or as good a rusher as Newton. That being said, I already said above that Newton was Prescott's closest comparable to having what we'd deem a "successful," NFL career -- but right now he's still nowhere close to Newton.

However, it still completely belies your ridiculous argument that passing yards are "random" or "meaningless." Newton still throws for 230 ypg (and has chipped in usually 40 ypg on the ground).

Dak averaged 207 last year and this year he's at 165. So he has quite the hill to climb to get to 230.

Which, if you recall me saying, I said he had to get back up to 230-240-250 to be ACCEPTABLE.

To be elite, which Newton really isn't, but he's ok I guess, he has to get to above 240-250. Which, essentially, at this point of Prescott's career, it's clear he's never going to do.

There is still hope he can develop and get into that 240 range and be a Cam Newton-ish type QB, but even that hope is fading fast.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

It's not "random."

Sure it is. It's why you have gone from 250 to 240 to 230YPG. You're just making up a target.

Cam Newton average 206 YPG last year. Considering he is also a running QB the comparisons make more sense.

Shit Carson Wentz only met your arbitrary standard like half the time last year. Does that mean every other game was a bad performance?

 

[Texas Ace]

The sad thing is the defense looks great. Garrett does nothing with the defense but they may win us enough games to save Garrett's job.

Agreed.

I made that same point to my dad. When we finally gave Romo a running game and O-line, the defense was in the middle of a 7 year run of being bad.

We're finally shaping the defense up, and now we lack a QB and passing game threats.

Such is life when you've got buffoons leading your organization.

 

[Texas Ace]

Booze said it last night, and the stat line says it this morning. Sean Lee had 3 tackles. You read that right.
Something is amiss with this guy, and Vander Esch had 7 tackles, good for send behind Cheesi Chido.

He didn't look particularly good last week as well.

The guy is 32, so it wouldn't be surprising if he started to decline.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

There is still hope he can develop and get into that 240 range and be a Cam Newton-ish type QB, but even that hope is fading fast.

You're still totally missing the point. You're setting a nonsensical benchmark.

What you should be bitching about is that he isn't hitting 7 ypa. That's a meaningful statistic. I'd prefer 70% completion percentage but 65% is good.

I'd like a 100+ qb rating. He was at 95 against the Giants which is good but not great.

These are stats that mean something in terms of wins. 240 YPG passing has no statistical evidence. It's arbitrary. You pulled it out of your ass.

 

[Smitty]

Sure it is. It's why you have gone from 250 to 240 to 230YPG. You're just making up a target.

You must have a reading comprehension problem.

240-250 ypg is GENERALLY the threshold for quality QBs. The best QBs generally are at that number or above. The ones who aren't so good are below that number.

I have trotted out 230 as a concession to Prescott, saying, maybe we can live with 230 given all the other things he does right, but he's not gonna be elite at 230 ypg.

Cam Newton average 206 YPG last year. Considering he is also a running QB the comparisons make more sense.

...which is why I already made the comparison.

Still, Prescott has a ways to go to duplicate Newton's career even.

Newton is the closest comparable to a top-10 ISH QB. And Prescott has a ways to go to get there.

Shit Carson Wentz only met your arbitrary standard like half the time last year. Does that mean every other game was a bad performance?

Wentz averaged 244 ypg last year.

Try again.

 

[Smitty]

You're still totally missing the point. You're setting a nonsensical benchmark.

No, it's not. Every time you say that, you are dead wrong.

There is almost unanimous correlation between being able to get over 240 ypg consistently and being a good NFL QB.

Cam Newton is the ONE guy you have been able to name who doesn't, and even he is still way above Prescott, he also runs the ball way more than Prescott, and he also is kinda not very good either at the end of the day. I mean, I can name 10 QBs I'd much rather than Newton at LEAST. Newton isn't a perennial regular season winner or playoff contender, which is where I'd like to be. To be that, you need an elite QB. The kind who always average over 240 ypg OR SO.

240 YPG passing has no statistical evidence.

I've already demonstrated it's evidence.

Good QBs average more than that.

You can't rebut it.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Passing yards had a 0.05 correlation to victory in 2015 (vs 0.6 for passer rating).

 

[Smitty]

If 240 ypg is "arbitrary" then why isn't a 95 rating arbitrary?

You cite 95 QB rating because that's generally what the good QBs have. That is generally reflective of a winning performance. Of course, you can still have a 95 QB rating and lose, and even be a losing QB, but generally 95 is good, because of correlation.

The same correlation exists for that 240-250 ypg barrier.

Generally, below that is bad. Generally, above that is good.

There are exceptions. Cam Newton is one.

But it's not arbitrary or meaningless.

Hey, tell us again how there's no meaningful difference between Prescott and Goff. That's a good one.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Wentz averaged 244 ypg last year.

Try again.

Lol so the individual performances don't have to meet 240 yards to be good. Your season average just has to? This argument is getting dumber and dumber.

 

[Smitty]

Passing yards had a 0.05 correlation to victory in 2015 (vs 0.6 for passer rating).

Meaning what? That the guys with the most passing yards didn't always win? Maybe, but that's probably comparing guys who throw for 270 versus 280, maybe the guy with 270 won more of the time.

I bet you see a real strong correlation with passing days of under 200 yards. Look at that stat and then tell me how often that QB wins.