The Coronavirus Thread...

[boozeman]

You are just making up stuff. Have you ever heard me say anything about Romo winning Super Bowls? And what inaction are you referring to? Do you think the CDC and the administration are guilty of inaction and caused nearly twice as many deaths as would currently be. Let see the process has been engaged for about 3 Weeks. Currently there are about 290 deaths. The numbers you are shaking around are unrealized numbers and may or may not ever be reached so for now are just conversational numbers. There is no basis currently for any slant about what ifs and blame innuendo. Maybe we can sit on it until something resembles what you are trying to postulate.

Unless you are completely ignorant, there is plenty of evidence there was at least enough advance notice for politicians to start dumping stocks.

Not that I am expecting crooked elected officials to be honest, but there is enough to see that we could have got ahead of this if leadership with integrity to do what is best for the general welfare of the country.

 

[boozeman]

This is the first time in a couple of weeks to watch the local news and you see these guys reporting from their home.

One had to shoo off a dog and another their children.

This is going to become the new normal.

 

[jsmith6919]

 

[yimyammer]

It is and the problem is if you don't flatten the curve the fatalities go way up. It's a numbers game, you can only treat so many at a certain time, and don't fool yourself, no one has the resources to take this on full strength. There are 300 million in the US, run your projected numbers (you had something like a 35% daily increase iirc) something like 10% of the cases need a ventilator for up to 2 weeks. You'll run out of ventilators at some point and the new severe cases move directly to the fatalities column.

thats my understanding, its still strange when I look at the H1N1 numbers in retrospect and they look huge but it never crossed my mind

I wish we could count on the government to learn from this so we have a plan of action in place to act quickly that doesn't force us to shut the economy but like we do seemingly everything in this country, it'll likely be forgotten and the can kicked down the road until it bows up in our face again with the next one

 

[L.T. Fan]

Unless you are completely ignorant, there is plenty of evidence there was at least enough advance notice for politicians to start dumping stocks.

Not that I am expecting crooked elected officials to be honest, but there is enough to see that we could have got ahead of this if leadership with integrity to do what is best for the general welfare of the country.

The question of information availability isn’t what I am addressing. Rather what difference would it make in what will become the actual numbers by engaging the quarantine and shutdown of the country earlier. The shutdown process began with almost no fatalities and very little known cases. The issue was that the numbers of saved lives would be xxxxxx. The discussion was about how is it possible to know how many lives would be saved and when should the quarantine process should have started.

And you can discontinue being an asshole and referring to everyone you address as being super ignorant from your perspective. I would pit my intelligence level with being on the same level as many and quite possibly higher than others but I don have a need to tell everyone else how stupid I think they are.

 

[L.T. Fan]

@L.T. Fan

Im intrigued by how you seemingly resist forecasting and ‘what ifs’. You favor status quo as a result. Which is fine. Not a dig at you, but it’s intriguing.

You seem critical of CDC and admin changing status quo because coronavirus has not statistically proven that it’s worse than the seasonal flu, which kills 20k - 60k people, out of ~30M infected any given year (~0.15% fatality rate)

What stat or combination of stats are you waiting for before you feel it’s warranted for these public space lockdowns?

 

[L.T. Fan]

First of all I am fully in favor of lockdown scenarios for these situations as early as can be efficiently done. Its the panic and irrational behavior of the masses it causes that gets to me. Dealing in what if scenarios of deaths and forecasting same isn’t the same as working on a business budget. Projecting hundreds or thousands of deaths is something that makes people bonkers and creates havoc. The obvious proof is seeing what the population in the country does with just conversations about in via the news media even when the actual numbers are a fraction of what is being literally forecast by everyone who chooses to discuss the topic.

As far as a status quo, there simply isn’t a reason to go beyond reality when dealing with peoples mortality. It isn’t a good idea to tell them that the worst case scenario is what they should hear. The media and government officials should be trying to calm people and give them encouragement instead of going for sensationalism just because the prefer it that way.

This is my objection to looking at the worst case scenario and it really only extends the irrrationalization actions of normal times.

 

[L.T. Fan]

It’s the Stormwatch reports in the news. Year after year talking about a possible potential developing situation for a month, getting people to cancel weekend plans and stay indoors, some even boarding up windows and buying sandbags or flat out leaving the region...then, the storm hits at half the voracity forecasted.

I mean, how much was spared during Katrina vs all the other storms that didn’t do squat?

These situations have survival solutions by leaving the potential threat area. Not the same as the current situation. No where to run with this. You stay put and hope. News media skills are best suited for fear tactics in weather warnings. They create the need to escape.

 

[skidadl]

I've got two parts of my warring inside my head here.

One thing to do is to look at the trends in Italy, which are pretty scary. It is easy to dismiss things and pretend that its just the flu and the flu kills more. That's not the issue here. The issue is with how infectious this thing is. Apparently it is extremely infectious while spreading rapidly.

Italy had 793 die today, up 35% per day since the beginning. Run the number on that for 10 more days:

1075, 1445, 1951, 2633, 3555, 4800, 6480, 8748, 11810, 15944

That is the numbers for possible deaths PER DAY that could happen if it continues to rise the same amount each day. That is not really the entire story though. The real problem here is that is approximately 1.5% of those infected. 20% of the people infected need hospitalized, so we are talking staggering numbers that need help and will quickly overrun their medical system. That is where people who would have survived will die due to not being able to get treatment.

So I am watching NYC right now with intense interest. The are losing one per hour, let's do those numbers:

32, 43, 59, 79, 107, 145, 196, 264, 357, 482

So, if things keep tracking the way they are NYC could have up to 482 deaths per day within the next 10 days and continue upward. If that is true you better get your shit together because stuff is going to get bad under those circumstances. Hug your grandparents, old parents and respiratory compromised loved ones.

The point is, keeping your distance could slow the spread out enough to not overload the medical systems that we have. Cause we don't have 60 million respirators to help everyone.

Or, it could be nothing. Carry on.

 

[jsmith6919]

I've got two parts of my warring inside my head here.

One thing to do is to look at the trends in Italy, which are pretty scary. It is easy to dismiss things and pretend that its just the flu and the flu kills more. That's not the issue here. The issue is with how infectious this thing is. Apparently it is extremely infectious while spreading rapidly.

Italy had 793 die today, up 35% per day since the beginning. Run the number on that for 10 more days:

1075, 1445, 1951, 2633, 3555, 4800, 6480, 8748, 11810, 15944

That is the numbers for possible deaths PER DAY that could happen if it continues to rise the same amount each day. That is not really the entire story though. The real problem here is that is approximately 1.5% of those infected. 20% of the people infected need hospitalized, so we are talking staggering numbers that need help and will quickly overrun their medical system. That is where people who would have survived will die due to not being able to get treatment.

So I am watching NYC right now with intense interest. The are losing one per hour, let's do those numbers:

32, 43, 59, 79, 107, 145, 196, 264, 357, 482

So, if things keep tracking the way they are NYC could have up to 482 deaths per day within the next 10 days and continue upward. If that is true you better get your shit together because stuff is going to get bad under those circumstances. Hug your grandparents, old parents and respiratory compromised loved ones.

The point is, keeping your distance could slow the spread out enough to not overload the medical systems that we have. Cause we don't have 60 million respirators to help everyone.

Or, it could be nothing. Carry on.

Italy also went woke at the start and even had a "hug a Chinese" policy

 

[bbgun]

Hug your grandparents, old parents and respiratory compromised loved ones.

 

[bbgun]

I wonder when the National Guard will begin blocking roads out of NY.

 

[skidadl]

Italy also went woke at the start and even had a "hug a Chinese" policy

I don't know how Italy responded in reality but I bet they said, "f it, this ain't no big deal"

Pretty much like many of us are doing still.

 

[jsmith6919]

So the news is guilty of sensationalizing everything, but this news you believe true.

Take this with a grain of salt, but I’ve spoken with my Chinese-Italians community. Only 72,550 have been hugged.

 

[L.T. Fan]

So you recommend staying put. Do you think the news has been scaring people into going out and partying?

The news has been quicker to scare people into hunkering down and staying in faster than our respective local, state and fed govts. As of right now, I think only ~25% of the American population is under a govt lockdown decree.

For the news media and all their faults, they share as hell weren’t shouting at ppl to stock up on toilet paper.

You are completely off track now so it’s probably time to close it out.

 

[data]

Florence. Not Italy.

That’s like the Mayor of San Francisco representing the United States.

 

[boozeman]

This is kind of fucked up.

 

[L.T. Fan]

Congratulations. Just following your track to understand your rationale. You’ve led us off course.

I had only one opinion, that being projecting deaths by the media was a stupid thing to do because it caused more panic and added to the problem. You kept moving things around with different catastrophe examples so just own it.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

This is kind of fucked up.

That is pretty fucked up. I hate the bullshit god told me to do something excuse. Like god wants you to make the pandemic worse and have your workers suffer. I don't even care about the guys net worth but don't use god as an excuse. Just admit you like money.

 

[bbgun]

wonderful