The Coronavirus Thread...

[L.T. Fan]

Nothing wrong with calling it the Chinese flu because the reference is not ethnicity rather the nation it was from.

 

[boozeman]

You can go fuck yourself. Period. And without reason. I'm not kidding. We have known each other for a long damn time, and this is the very first time I have seriously meant you can fuck off. Dead on..... FUCK OFF!

Somehow, I missed this.

 

[jsmith6919]

What people who claim calling it the Chinese virus is racist see Vs what Xi Jinping sees

 

[Genghis Khan]

Somehow, I missed this.

I believe getting an ode is an honor.

 

[Cotton]

I believe getting an ode is an honor.

 

[yimyammer]

 

[L.T. Fan]

Let's clarify this...if a country didn't respond at all to Coronavirus, let's say 60,000 people would die, vulnerable to health hazards and inevitable. If a country went full throttle lockdown, it'd reduce the rate infected then 35,000 would die.

From my original post, is that extra 25,000 lives worth the economy tanking for 99% population with year(s) of recovery for those that will lose their small businesses/jobs?

It’s a nice hypothesis but it cannot address the actions of a populous and how their actions reduced or extended a number statistically.. In the case of this country, actions were in planning before there was any victims of the virus. The activation of the various planning strategies seemed to create excess panic. It is next to impossible to know whether the timing of the announcement added any fatalities to the totals. It’s a practice in theory to even begin to make a determination rather than a factual conclusion.

 

[yimyammer]

anyone ever heard of this person, she's posting a lot of videos that appear to be leaked out of China

 

[NoDak]

This was right before his mandate to cease aggressive attacks.

Right?

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Let's clarify this...if a country didn't respond at all to Coronavirus, let's say 60,000 people would die, vulnerable to health hazards and inevitable. If a country went full throttle lockdown, it'd reduce the rate infected then 35,000 would die.

From my original post, is that extra 25,000 lives worth the economy tanking for 99% population with year(s) of recovery for those that will lose their small businesses/jobs?

These are all fair questions, but we can't let Italy happen here if at all possible. What if you don't die, so obviously aren't counted in that statistic, but you go through hell not being able to breathe and suffer permanent damage?

In fact, changing gears for a second -- and I hope I haven't posted this here before, don't think I have -- anyone remember a thread I made about the worst case of the flu you've ever had? It's weird looking back how similar the symptoms were/are: Sudden inability to draw a full breath with a slight dry cough but no other symptoms, followed a few days later by violent cough that no med seems to tame, temperatures increasing daily up to 103.5+, inability to eat, almost surely a cytokine storm (according to my amateur reading), dizziness, and a trip to an ER facility and a pneumonia diagnosis. And my lungs still aren't right even months later. This from a healthy, active, health-conscious person with no smoking ever, no bad habits, no underlying medical conditions at all, who is only sick a few times per decade. Oh, and I tested negative for the flu, and antibiotics didn't seem to dent it. I have no doubt it would have killed someone older like my mom and dad, which is pretty scary.

I'm not saying I had this virus, but I am saying it sounds very similar and I wouldn't wish that on anyone even if it doesn't take their life.

 

[Angrymesscan]

Let's clarify this...if a country didn't respond at all to Coronavirus, let's say 60,000 people would die, vulnerable to health hazards and inevitable. If a country went full throttle lockdown, it'd reduce the rate infected then 35,000 would die.

From my original post, is that extra 25,000 lives worth the economy tanking for 99% population with year(s) of recovery for those that will lose their small businesses/jobs?

I think you should run those Numbers Again ...

 

[Angrymesscan]

These are all fair questions, but we can't let Italy happen here if at all possible. What if you don't die, so obviously aren't counted in that statistic, but you go through hell not being able to breathe and suffer permanent damage?

In fact, changing gears for a second -- and I hope I haven't posted this here before, don't think I have -- anyone remember a thread I made about the worst case of the flu you've ever had? It's weird looking back how similar the symptoms were/are: Sudden inability to draw a full breath with a slight dry cough but no other symptoms, followed a few days later by violent cough that no med seems to tame, temperatures increasing daily up to 103.5+, inability to eat, almost surely a cytokine storm (according to my amateur reading), dizziness, and a trip to an ER facility and a pneumonia diagnosis. And my lungs still aren't right even months later. This from a healthy, active, health-conscious person with no smoking ever, no bad habits, no underlying medical conditions at all, who is only sick a few times per decade. Oh, and I tested negative for the flu, and antibiotics didn't seem to dent it. I have no doubt it would have killed someone older like my mom and dad, which is pretty scary.

I'm not saying I had this virus, but I am saying it sounds very similar and I wouldn't wish that on anyone even if it doesn't take their life.

So you’re saying it should be the “chocolate lab virus?”

 

[jsmith6919]

 

[bbgun]

 

[Angrymesscan]

60,000 - 35,000 = 25,000.
60,000 - 35,000 = 25,000.
60,000 - 35,000 = 25,000.

Yup, I ran it three more times.

Not the equations the numbers, I think you’ll see that the number of fatalities goes much higher if you don’t take measures to “flatten the curve”

 

[Angrymesscan]

https://link.medium.com/JdJbUXJfO4

 

[yimyammer]

These are all fair questions, but we can't let Italy happen here if at all possible. What if you don't die, so obviously aren't counted in that statistic, but you go through hell not being able to breathe and suffer permanent damage?

In fact, changing gears for a second -- and I hope I haven't posted this here before, don't think I have -- anyone remember a thread I made about the worst case of the flu you've ever had? It's weird looking back how similar the symptoms were/are: Sudden inability to draw a full breath with a slight dry cough but no other symptoms, followed a few days later by violent cough that no med seems to tame, temperatures increasing daily up to 103.5+, inability to eat, almost surely a cytokine storm (according to my amateur reading), dizziness, and a trip to an ER facility and a pneumonia diagnosis. And my lungs still aren't right even months later. This from a healthy, active, health-conscious person with no smoking ever, no bad habits, no underlying medical conditions at all, who is only sick a few times per decade. Oh, and I tested negative for the flu, and antibiotics didn't seem to dent it. I have no doubt it would have killed someone older like my mom and dad, which is pretty scary.

I'm not saying I had this virus, but I am saying it sounds very similar and I wouldn't wish that on anyone even if it doesn't take their life.

do you mind saying how old your are?

if so, no worries, ignore my question

 

[yimyammer]

Not the equations the numbers, I think you’ll see that the number of fatalities goes much higher if you don’t take measures to “flatten the curve”

what's weird is I was completely oblivious to the H1N1 virus in 2009.

Here are some numbers from the article linked below:

It's been a little over a decade since the world experienced its last pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 swine flu. Between the spring of 2009 and the spring of 2010, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the Centers for Disease Protection and Control <2009 H1N1 Pandemic>.

also from the article:

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1) virus.

using the numbers above, H1N1 had a rate of 0.000205082236842% which is 1 death for every 4,876 people. The current estimate of C19 is anywhere from 1.5% to 7% or 1.5 per 100 people up to 7 people per 100. Lets say we use 1.5% and apply that to H1N1 cases in the US and we would have had 912,000 deaths in the US alone or 73 times the number of fatalities. Obvious these figures aren't exact but even dropping it to 1% creates +600,000 deaths in the US.

perhaps the fatality rate is the difference?

 

[Angrymesscan]

what's weird is I was completely oblivious to the H1N1 virus in 2009.

Here are some numbers from the article linked below:



also from the article:



using the numbers above, H1N1 had a rate of 0.000205082236842% which is 1 death for every 4,876 people. The current estimate of C19 is anywhere from 1.5% to 7% or 1.5 per 100 people up to 7 people per 100. Lets say we use 1.5% and apply that to H1N1 cases in the US and we would have had 912,000 deaths in the US alone or 73 times the number of fatalities. Obvious these figures aren't exact but even dropping it to 1% creates +600,000 deaths in the US.

perhaps the fatality rate is the difference?

It is and the problem is if you don't flatten the curve the fatalities go way up. It's a numbers game, you can only treat so many at a certain time, and don't fool yourself, no one has the resources to take this on full strength. There are 300 million in the US, run your projected numbers (you had something like a 35% daily increase iirc) something like 10% of the cases need a ventilator for up to 2 weeks. You'll run out of ventilators at some point and the new severe cases move directly to the fatalities column.

 

[L.T. Fan]

Yet you will assume that Romo on the 90s Cowboys would win at least 3 Super Bowls.

I am comfortable in saying that inaction to coronovirus would have more deaths than with action to flatten the curve.

You are just making up stuff. Have you ever heard me say anything about Romo winning Super Bowls? And what inaction are you referring to? Do you think the CDC and the administration are guilty of inaction and caused nearly twice as many deaths as would currently be. Let see the process has been engaged for about 3 Weeks. Currently there are about 290 deaths. The numbers you are shaking around are unrealized numbers and may or may not ever be reached so for now are just conversational numbers. There is no basis currently for any slant about what ifs and blame innuendo. Maybe we can sit on it until something resembles what you are trying to postulate.