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The Cowboys’ offense begins season searching for an identity: Decoding Kellen Moore
Bob Sturm
The depths of despair that the Cowboys produced Sunday night probably didn’t need a new low. After losing the game handily, scoring just 3 points, producing less than 250 yards of offense, and seeing Dak Prescott leave the game with a thumb injury, we have had about enough bad news for one game.
But, you know that it is my duty — as chief sports nerd — to show you something that you might not realize about the debacle because I am not sure I recall ever previously seeing this.
Dallas played an entire game of football Sunday without ever crossing the opponent’s 31-yard line. Not once. Nor did they have a long touchdown play that was able to bypass snaps in the final 30 yards of the field. In other words, at no point over four quarters of a home game did Dallas even flirt with a red zone opportunity.
This is about as rare as it gets.
In hockey, if a team is unable to visit their opponent’s zone, jokes are made about the ice being tilted and that the Zamboni does not need to resurface the ice on one end of the rink. In football, I am not sure I am familiar with this in the professional ranks, but here is the incredibly dubious possession chart from the official gamebook. The blue column will indicate the deepest penetration into enemy territory against the Buccaneers.
I had to know if this had happened before in recent Cowboys history because seeing a team go 0 for 0 in the red zone is rare. Then hearing that they never got within 11 yards of the red zone seems beyond rare. So I checked. We have seen some poor games over the years — especially when the starting QB gets hurt — but, none like this.
The search was an odd one because this isn’t the type of thing they keep handy for regular usage. I contacted a long-time statistical guru and old friend Bob Thomas. Thomas has been keeping the stats for Brad Sham and the Cowboys for 37 seasons, so I know exactly where to go when I need an oddity confirmed.
He didn’t let me down. “There are 53 Dallas games without a TD, so checked a few and looked at 0-0 Red zone. That stat only goes back to 1998. 6 games there, eliminated 4 where they scored TDs. 11/19/00 vs Baltimore where they got as deep as the BAL 28. 10/26/03 vs TB they got to the 23.”
We can only get back to 1998 for this search, but rest assured, in all the Cowboys’ games in the past 25 years, there has never been a game when they didn’t take a single offensive snap inside the opponent’s 31. Whether it goes back further than that — we assume it probably does by quite a bit — we will have to speculate wildly.
Imagine what that tells us. In a game we entered wondering what Kellen Moore might have planned to compensate for an outmatched offensive line and a wide receiver group that probably won’t be able to beat coverage much, we found how feeble this offense might be.
And that was before they lost Prescott.
Prescott had a very poor night and honestly, I had health concerns about him before the new injury. His passes had no zip and he also made puzzling decisions. As amazing as he appeared in last year’s opener against the same opponent in a more hostile setting, he was terribly pedestrian in all sorts of ways Sunday. Obviously, it is dangerous to speculate about someone’s condition simply because “he doesn’t look right”, but given how much we have seen him play football over the years, it wasn’t hard to see how poor he was playing. Perhaps he was affected by his circumstances, but the job needs much more from him than on this night without the injury.
From all of the red ink, this was a catastrophically bad performance from this offense. I want to be careful about how much I put on which desk, but yes, I do have to start with that the man who has the ball in his hands every snap did not look like he was feeling it.
And, to a certain extent, Tampa Bay did what teams have been doing against the Cowboys for a while. Tampa Bay does not need to comply with anyone else’s ideas because Todd Bowles has had that defense playing at a high level for a while and the Bucs are not short of talent on that defense.
They played more than 80 percent zones against Dallas and blitzed about 30 percent of the time. Even with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, you could frustrate Prescott and Moore by dropping into heavily populated zones, allowing your four-man pass rush to trouble the Cowboys’ O-line and daring Dallas to sustain drives on the ground.
Tampa’s four-man rush did not cause as many issues as San Francisco did, but it was still enough to get the QB thinking about it and then Bowles would hit the Cowboys with a well-timed blitz. I have always enjoyed that Bowles and his defense bring blitzes in early-down situations (defenses traditionally bring pressure on third downs). It often crosses up an offense to see blitzes on every down and distance.
According to the NFL Next Gen pressure numbers, Dallas could never find a solution.
Next Gen throw chart: Prescott, Week 1
Trying to see anything useful is difficult. The deepest green dot was an early third-down throw to Lamb in the middle of the field, but otherwise, Dallas hardly hit on a single throw of substance. It spoke to many things, but it starts with a QB who was not on his game.
Next Gen: CeeDee Lamb route chart
Here are Lamb’s 11 targeted routes with the green dots indicating the completions. The coverages on Lamb were pretty extensive, but getting him the ball must be an objective at all times. With plenty of help or no help, this offense must get the ball in the hands of its playmakers. In Dallas’ past two key games, Lamb has been targeted 16 times and has three catches for 50 yards.
16 targets and 3 catches!
We will suggest there have been two drops, too. That means 11 of the targets are either poor throws or a coverage win. This requires fixing quickly. We have seen countless teams scheme open their key weapons to create opportunities, despite the opposition keying on your guy. We do not see enough of that with Lamb and the Cowboys. This falls to Moore to keep working to fix.
Now, to the running game — we were pretty cynical entering the game — that turned out to be somewhat promising. You have to understand that Tampa Bay’s defensive front is very stout against the run. So much so, that teams abandon it during the week in many cases and do not bother much.
Dallas was true to its word and loaded up Ezekiel Elliott quite a bit early. The results were fairly encouraging:
Next Gen: Ezekiel Elliott rushing chart
We haven’t felt optimism about a running game centered around Elliott in a while and it remains to be seen if this is something the Cowboys can continue moving forward, but for one week it was solid. I see no negative runs — whether the O-line getting beaten badly or Zeke missing the hole. He was able to scratch out several runs of 5-plus and each time moved quickly through the hole.
I even heard many say they should have run him more and it’s been a while since we have heard that about Elliott. Now, we still need chunk plays and also need to see him sustain his speed when the bruises hit, but for one week, I am comfortable in saying he looks faster and the offensive line looks like it can move some bodies up front. More on that group in a second.
One of everyone’s big ideas in the offseason — one I have written about countless times — is figuring out a way to get Elliott and Tony Pollard out there at the same time. In this chart, we see that as 21 and 22 personnel groupings. Add those two groupings from the Tampa Bay game and it totals eight snaps for 10 yards. Given that Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season, we know that 1.2 yards per play is woeful. Just awful. It was not helped by some gadget plays that blew up in their face and got some in the stadium to mutter “too cute” under their breath.
Our objectives here at Decoding Kellen are not just to fire missiles at him when things go poorly, but to evaluate and study what they are doing. If there is a principle issue I have with his job performance, it is to design a cogent battle plan that has continuity throughout. You want plays that complement each other and look like each other. Then, you are starting to offer the complex simplicity that should be desired. Before a play starts, this looks like several other plays and the defense is caught guessing. There is nothing wrong with Moore’s designs of specific plays. The coordination of those specific plays into something grander is what we are seeking.
Now, he must do it without Prescott. That might actually make his task easier, but it also might make accomplishing the goals more difficult. We shall see. The Cowboys’ offense must stay on task and committed until it is falling out of a game. Do not abandon your plan too early and exchange it for desperation. Cooper Rush requires you to simplify what you ask of the QB and to expand what you ask of the group. That portion of the mission is not all bad at this moment.
Film study
You know the drill. We break down big plays and discuss what went right or wrong. In this edition, we regret to inform you there were no big plays that went right. But, I had a lot of questions about the individual play of each of the offensive linemen, so I studied that:
LT Tyler Smith – 69 snaps – C+
I thought Smith was very good at times. He will provide highlight snaps every game where we marvel at the strength of the young man as he learns this league with pancakes and such. For the most part, he played a solid game and if Dallas left him at left tackle a bit longer, I think he would figure it out. But, there were more than a few moments where he did not see what Tampa Bay was about to do and left a free-runner on his QB. Another time, he was slow out of his stance and Shaquil Barrett beat him. I think we can be pleased with his progress, but the recognition and adjustments are a huge part of this position and he will need to develop that aspect.
LG Connor McGovern – 7 snaps – C
McGovern had a big chance on this night and through no fault of his own had a collision land on his ankle and will miss a month. The injury occurred early and we were unable to see much from him, otherwise.
LG Matt Farniok – 62 snaps – D
Farniok came in when McGovern was hurt and was the target of many Tampa Bay stunts and games to try to confuse him. It worked and a few times there was a miscommunication between him and Smith about who had who or they both planned on help from the other in a double team. Again, play guys who have no experience and we quickly see how communication and continuity are everything. As far as the physical battles, he didn’t lose much. But, those mental busts are what plague this team and what Tampa keyed on to cause chaos.
C Tyler Biadasz – 69 snaps – B-
Overall, this was a bright spot. He had a very difficult assignment and physically he was very good. Of course, we know the value of a center is identifying blitzes and fronts and we aren’t sure how that went, but overall that was a promising start to Year 3 as center.
RG Zack Martin – 69 snaps – B+
Zack Martin is Zack Martin. He was pushed a few times to a stalemate by the impressive Akiem Hicks, but, in general, he did his normal fine work.
RT Terence Steele – 69 snaps – C-
Anytime a player picks up four penalties on three false starts and a hold, you already have to say it was a rough go. His pass protection is still a concern with some over-setting and getting beat inside or being susceptible to the power bull rushes, but there is no question they want him wrecking things on the run as a powerful run blocker. He was decent enough, but again, four penalties is an issue.
This one play was symbolic of the night.
First quarter, (13:48) T.Pollard up the middle to DAL 20 for -8 yards (S.Barrett).
This is the third play of the game. We are only one minute into the 2022 season and if you wanted Elliott and Pollard on the field together, here you go.
The dots don’t do this one justice, so I highly recommend the banana stand, but holy heck, what is Dalton Schultz doing here? Once Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (No. 9) gets inside Noah Brown because Schultz is basically just getting in the way, the situation is doomed. Lamb is going to flip it back to Pollard on a double reverse which smacks of desperation on the game’s first drive. The panic on Lamb flipping it to Pollard, who is so close that the same guy can tackle both, is not ideal.
My general view on gadget plays is that they usually don’t help the situation. Use them as a weapon, not a necessity. But, on this day, it sort of appeared the play calling was desperate when the game began.
That’s all for today, but from every angle, Dallas was not up to this task. Now, things get more difficult because their QB is healing in street clothes.
On to Cincinnati.
(Top photo of CeeDee Lamb: Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
Bob Sturm
The depths of despair that the Cowboys produced Sunday night probably didn’t need a new low. After losing the game handily, scoring just 3 points, producing less than 250 yards of offense, and seeing Dak Prescott leave the game with a thumb injury, we have had about enough bad news for one game.
But, you know that it is my duty — as chief sports nerd — to show you something that you might not realize about the debacle because I am not sure I recall ever previously seeing this.
Dallas played an entire game of football Sunday without ever crossing the opponent’s 31-yard line. Not once. Nor did they have a long touchdown play that was able to bypass snaps in the final 30 yards of the field. In other words, at no point over four quarters of a home game did Dallas even flirt with a red zone opportunity.
This is about as rare as it gets.
In hockey, if a team is unable to visit their opponent’s zone, jokes are made about the ice being tilted and that the Zamboni does not need to resurface the ice on one end of the rink. In football, I am not sure I am familiar with this in the professional ranks, but here is the incredibly dubious possession chart from the official gamebook. The blue column will indicate the deepest penetration into enemy territory against the Buccaneers.
I had to know if this had happened before in recent Cowboys history because seeing a team go 0 for 0 in the red zone is rare. Then hearing that they never got within 11 yards of the red zone seems beyond rare. So I checked. We have seen some poor games over the years — especially when the starting QB gets hurt — but, none like this.
The search was an odd one because this isn’t the type of thing they keep handy for regular usage. I contacted a long-time statistical guru and old friend Bob Thomas. Thomas has been keeping the stats for Brad Sham and the Cowboys for 37 seasons, so I know exactly where to go when I need an oddity confirmed.
He didn’t let me down. “There are 53 Dallas games without a TD, so checked a few and looked at 0-0 Red zone. That stat only goes back to 1998. 6 games there, eliminated 4 where they scored TDs. 11/19/00 vs Baltimore where they got as deep as the BAL 28. 10/26/03 vs TB they got to the 23.”
We can only get back to 1998 for this search, but rest assured, in all the Cowboys’ games in the past 25 years, there has never been a game when they didn’t take a single offensive snap inside the opponent’s 31. Whether it goes back further than that — we assume it probably does by quite a bit — we will have to speculate wildly.
Imagine what that tells us. In a game we entered wondering what Kellen Moore might have planned to compensate for an outmatched offensive line and a wide receiver group that probably won’t be able to beat coverage much, we found how feeble this offense might be.
And that was before they lost Prescott.
Prescott had a very poor night and honestly, I had health concerns about him before the new injury. His passes had no zip and he also made puzzling decisions. As amazing as he appeared in last year’s opener against the same opponent in a more hostile setting, he was terribly pedestrian in all sorts of ways Sunday. Obviously, it is dangerous to speculate about someone’s condition simply because “he doesn’t look right”, but given how much we have seen him play football over the years, it wasn’t hard to see how poor he was playing. Perhaps he was affected by his circumstances, but the job needs much more from him than on this night without the injury.
From all of the red ink, this was a catastrophically bad performance from this offense. I want to be careful about how much I put on which desk, but yes, I do have to start with that the man who has the ball in his hands every snap did not look like he was feeling it.
And, to a certain extent, Tampa Bay did what teams have been doing against the Cowboys for a while. Tampa Bay does not need to comply with anyone else’s ideas because Todd Bowles has had that defense playing at a high level for a while and the Bucs are not short of talent on that defense.
They played more than 80 percent zones against Dallas and blitzed about 30 percent of the time. Even with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, you could frustrate Prescott and Moore by dropping into heavily populated zones, allowing your four-man pass rush to trouble the Cowboys’ O-line and daring Dallas to sustain drives on the ground.
Tampa’s four-man rush did not cause as many issues as San Francisco did, but it was still enough to get the QB thinking about it and then Bowles would hit the Cowboys with a well-timed blitz. I have always enjoyed that Bowles and his defense bring blitzes in early-down situations (defenses traditionally bring pressure on third downs). It often crosses up an offense to see blitzes on every down and distance.
According to the NFL Next Gen pressure numbers, Dallas could never find a solution.
Trying to see anything useful is difficult. The deepest green dot was an early third-down throw to Lamb in the middle of the field, but otherwise, Dallas hardly hit on a single throw of substance. It spoke to many things, but it starts with a QB who was not on his game.
Next Gen: CeeDee Lamb route chart
Here are Lamb’s 11 targeted routes with the green dots indicating the completions. The coverages on Lamb were pretty extensive, but getting him the ball must be an objective at all times. With plenty of help or no help, this offense must get the ball in the hands of its playmakers. In Dallas’ past two key games, Lamb has been targeted 16 times and has three catches for 50 yards.
16 targets and 3 catches!
We will suggest there have been two drops, too. That means 11 of the targets are either poor throws or a coverage win. This requires fixing quickly. We have seen countless teams scheme open their key weapons to create opportunities, despite the opposition keying on your guy. We do not see enough of that with Lamb and the Cowboys. This falls to Moore to keep working to fix.
Now, to the running game — we were pretty cynical entering the game — that turned out to be somewhat promising. You have to understand that Tampa Bay’s defensive front is very stout against the run. So much so, that teams abandon it during the week in many cases and do not bother much.
Dallas was true to its word and loaded up Ezekiel Elliott quite a bit early. The results were fairly encouraging:
Next Gen: Ezekiel Elliott rushing chart
We haven’t felt optimism about a running game centered around Elliott in a while and it remains to be seen if this is something the Cowboys can continue moving forward, but for one week it was solid. I see no negative runs — whether the O-line getting beaten badly or Zeke missing the hole. He was able to scratch out several runs of 5-plus and each time moved quickly through the hole.
I even heard many say they should have run him more and it’s been a while since we have heard that about Elliott. Now, we still need chunk plays and also need to see him sustain his speed when the bruises hit, but for one week, I am comfortable in saying he looks faster and the offensive line looks like it can move some bodies up front. More on that group in a second.
One of everyone’s big ideas in the offseason — one I have written about countless times — is figuring out a way to get Elliott and Tony Pollard out there at the same time. In this chart, we see that as 21 and 22 personnel groupings. Add those two groupings from the Tampa Bay game and it totals eight snaps for 10 yards. Given that Dallas averaged 6 yards per play last season, we know that 1.2 yards per play is woeful. Just awful. It was not helped by some gadget plays that blew up in their face and got some in the stadium to mutter “too cute” under their breath.
Our objectives here at Decoding Kellen are not just to fire missiles at him when things go poorly, but to evaluate and study what they are doing. If there is a principle issue I have with his job performance, it is to design a cogent battle plan that has continuity throughout. You want plays that complement each other and look like each other. Then, you are starting to offer the complex simplicity that should be desired. Before a play starts, this looks like several other plays and the defense is caught guessing. There is nothing wrong with Moore’s designs of specific plays. The coordination of those specific plays into something grander is what we are seeking.
Now, he must do it without Prescott. That might actually make his task easier, but it also might make accomplishing the goals more difficult. We shall see. The Cowboys’ offense must stay on task and committed until it is falling out of a game. Do not abandon your plan too early and exchange it for desperation. Cooper Rush requires you to simplify what you ask of the QB and to expand what you ask of the group. That portion of the mission is not all bad at this moment.
Film study
You know the drill. We break down big plays and discuss what went right or wrong. In this edition, we regret to inform you there were no big plays that went right. But, I had a lot of questions about the individual play of each of the offensive linemen, so I studied that:
LT Tyler Smith – 69 snaps – C+
I thought Smith was very good at times. He will provide highlight snaps every game where we marvel at the strength of the young man as he learns this league with pancakes and such. For the most part, he played a solid game and if Dallas left him at left tackle a bit longer, I think he would figure it out. But, there were more than a few moments where he did not see what Tampa Bay was about to do and left a free-runner on his QB. Another time, he was slow out of his stance and Shaquil Barrett beat him. I think we can be pleased with his progress, but the recognition and adjustments are a huge part of this position and he will need to develop that aspect.
LG Connor McGovern – 7 snaps – C
McGovern had a big chance on this night and through no fault of his own had a collision land on his ankle and will miss a month. The injury occurred early and we were unable to see much from him, otherwise.
LG Matt Farniok – 62 snaps – D
Farniok came in when McGovern was hurt and was the target of many Tampa Bay stunts and games to try to confuse him. It worked and a few times there was a miscommunication between him and Smith about who had who or they both planned on help from the other in a double team. Again, play guys who have no experience and we quickly see how communication and continuity are everything. As far as the physical battles, he didn’t lose much. But, those mental busts are what plague this team and what Tampa keyed on to cause chaos.
C Tyler Biadasz – 69 snaps – B-
Overall, this was a bright spot. He had a very difficult assignment and physically he was very good. Of course, we know the value of a center is identifying blitzes and fronts and we aren’t sure how that went, but overall that was a promising start to Year 3 as center.
RG Zack Martin – 69 snaps – B+
Zack Martin is Zack Martin. He was pushed a few times to a stalemate by the impressive Akiem Hicks, but, in general, he did his normal fine work.
RT Terence Steele – 69 snaps – C-
Anytime a player picks up four penalties on three false starts and a hold, you already have to say it was a rough go. His pass protection is still a concern with some over-setting and getting beat inside or being susceptible to the power bull rushes, but there is no question they want him wrecking things on the run as a powerful run blocker. He was decent enough, but again, four penalties is an issue.
This one play was symbolic of the night.
First quarter, (13:48) T.Pollard up the middle to DAL 20 for -8 yards (S.Barrett).
This is the third play of the game. We are only one minute into the 2022 season and if you wanted Elliott and Pollard on the field together, here you go.
The dots don’t do this one justice, so I highly recommend the banana stand, but holy heck, what is Dalton Schultz doing here? Once Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (No. 9) gets inside Noah Brown because Schultz is basically just getting in the way, the situation is doomed. Lamb is going to flip it back to Pollard on a double reverse which smacks of desperation on the game’s first drive. The panic on Lamb flipping it to Pollard, who is so close that the same guy can tackle both, is not ideal.
My general view on gadget plays is that they usually don’t help the situation. Use them as a weapon, not a necessity. But, on this day, it sort of appeared the play calling was desperate when the game began.
That’s all for today, but from every angle, Dallas was not up to this task. Now, things get more difficult because their QB is healing in street clothes.
On to Cincinnati.
(Top photo of CeeDee Lamb: Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
