Sturm: Is there an NFL player with more at stake in 2018 than Dak Prescott?

[Genghis Khan]

The only statistical flaw over his first 24 games that you can point out is YPG, that is my ultimate point.

If you want to sit here and say that, subjectively, he didn't impress you enough as a passer, great, you could be right. But to act like Wentz and Goff are head and shoulders above Prescott because of YPG is inane.

Almost as inane as pretending that Goff simply took a 2nd year leap as opposed to having the good fortune of going from one of the shittiest offensive schemes in the league in 2016 to one of the most innovative in 2017.

And it is arbitrary because literally nobody uses YPG as a definitive standard for QB play, you're only doing it because it's the only statistic where Prescott lags behind when taking the entirety of his first 2 years into account.

I would point out that splitting his stats 16 vs 16 makes much more sense than 24 vs 8.

 

[Smitty]

I read it as combining his numbers from 2016 and the first 8 of 2017 not being good enough, although over the first 8 of 2017 his completion % was 63% and YPA was 7. Certainly not great but that isn't "replace this guy immediately" bad either for a 2nd year QB, especially when he put up 20 total TD's to just 4 INT's.

I never said "replace immediately."

But his clock is ticking.

 

[Smitty]

YPG is the most useless statistic. Only an idiot would think that's an indicator of a QBs success or failure. Just being honest about it.

YPG is not useless at all, actually.

 

[Simpleton]

The combination of the two stats is what concerns me. If you aren't getting the ball down field at a high rate, you really should be completing at a high rate. He did both better in 2016 so I don't know what happened last year but it wasn't just the final 8 games.

I agree, I think it was a combination of complacency from Dak and perhaps many of the offensive cast, as well as on the part of the coaching staff who seemed to just roll out what we did in 2016 while teams spent all offseason figuring out specifically how to stop the offense/running game. Then you have to factor in that Elliott wasn't the same player over the first handful of games in 2017 as he was in 2016 either, he didn't seem to snap out of his funk until near the end of the Green Bay game.

At any rate, my overall point is that if you double his rate of production over the first 8 games you'd have a guy who put up 40 total TD's to only 8 turnovers, with about a 63% completion % and 7.0 YPA (Wentz only put up 60%/7.5 YPA, while Goff put up 62% but a far stronger 8.0 YPA), and pretty much nobody would be clamoring to replace him.

Of course you can't just assume that his production would double and obviously the last 8 games exposed plenty of warts, but I'm saying that he deserves way more benefit of the doubt than smitty gives him.

And that's why I say that the argument basically comes down to how much blame you place on Dak vs. the coaching staff/scheme, aside from this YPG obsession.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I agree, I think it was a combination of complacency from Dak and perhaps many of the offensive cast, as well as on the part of the coaching staff who seemed to just roll out what we did in 2016 while teams spent all offseason figuring out specifically how to stop the offense/running game. Then you have to factor in that Elliott wasn't the same player over the first handful of games in 2017 as he was in 2016 either, he didn't seem to snap out of his funk until near the end of the Green Bay game.

At any rate, my overall point is that if you double his rate of production over the first 8 games you'd have a guy who put up 40 total TD's to only 8 turnovers, with about a 63% completion % and 7.0 YPA (Wentz only put up 60%/7.5 YPA, while Goff put up 62% but a far stronger 8.0 YPA), and pretty much nobody would be clamoring to replace him.

Of course you can't just assume that his production would double and obviously the last 8 games exposed plenty of warts, but I'm saying that he deserves way more benefit of the doubt than smitty gives him.

And that's why I say that the argument basically comes down to how much blame you place on Dak vs. the coaching staff/scheme, aside from this YPG obsession.

I'd say equal parts. The fact that he hasn't had a proper coach or vet QB outside of his rookie season is mind numbing.

 

[JMech]

Sure, sure, and we'll just write off Goff's 2016 and attribute his 2017 success to natural progression and ability, whereas Dak's 2017 (last 8 games) is 100% his fault and has nothing to do with stale play-calling or offensive scheming.

Just what I was thinking. Thank you for verbalizing this.

 

[Smitty]

The only statistical flaw over his first 24 games that you can point out is YPG, that is my ultimate point.

Yes, his YPG is much too low. He is unable to move the ball at a high level through the air compared to his peers. And it is not enough to say "We are a running offense" when the offense fell off the 14th in both yardage and scoring and he was not able to up his game. He personally must improve his ability here. His YPG struggles are a reflection not just of offensive design and playcalls, they are reflective of personal struggles to make all the throws and find open receivers in this scheme (which, as has already been discussed, is obviously also partly to blame). But Prescott has to do what he can in this scheme; Romo was able to excel in it.

If you want to sit here and say that, subjectively, he didn't impress you enough as a passer, great, you could be right. But to act like Wentz and Goff are head and shoulders above Prescott because of YPG is inane.

Subjectively, objectively, however you cut it, Wentz and Goff are tangibly better than Prescott as passers. They may not be better protecting the ball. They may not have the 32 game track record of putting up points. But they have demonstrated mastery of being able to pick apart NFL defenses through the air; or at least "mastery" compared to Prescott's demonstrated ability of the same.

This is a "make or break a career" NFL skill. Colin Kaepernick once had many of the same positives going for him as an NFL QB.... running ability.... leading a winning offense..... etc. His inability to move the ball through the air at a high level, which was reflected by his low, low YPG (making the stat decidedly NOT irrelevant), eventually caught up with him.

Prescott must, MUST overcome that hurdle. He averaged 207 ypg last year. He was sub-200 yards passing in a game 8 times. Half the time! Four of those games were games we lost, and a fifth surely would have been a loss if the Eagles cared to compete that day. These are games were he personally isn't cutting it. 5 games out of 16, he's not even close. These aren't close, grind it out games. These are games where he needs to turn it on through the air and he can't.

Almost as inane as pretending that Goff simply took a 2nd year leap as opposed to having the good fortune of going from one of the shittiest offensive schemes in the league in 2016 to one of the most innovative in 2017.

Goff most certainly took a leap. His rookie year stats were abysmal and his second year stats were excellent. Coaching doesn't explain all that.

And it is arbitrary because literally nobody uses YPG as a definitive standard for QB play, you're only doing it because it's the only statistic where Prescott lags behind when taking the entirety of his first 2 years into account.

I'm not using it as a "definitive standard." It's one measurement that is in widespread use, so it's absolutely not arbitrary. And yes, it's the one very big statistic that he lags behind in. It's a fatal flaw of his to this point in his career. He is riding on this offense, not carrying it, to this point of his career. If he ever wants to carry the offense, he has to take a leap. And I can't commit a long term, hundred million dollar contract to a QB who can't carry the offensive load on his own shoulders.

This argument that just because he sucks in only one stat means he must be a great QB is mindblowing. What if he was throwing for 5000 yards, 40 TDs, but also 40 INTs? You'd say he has a pretty big flaw despite only sucking in one category -- interceptions.

One thing can absolutely be your huge weakness. With Prescott he's efficient, but in low volume. Unfortunately, he doesn't play in Troy Aikman's NFL. To win in today's league, you will have to be high volume at some point. 2014 Tony Romo should be his template with a strong running game. But he's not there right now. 247 yards per game, 34 TDs, 9 INTs. That's his goal.

 

[JMech]

We've already had this discussion, and you are wrong.

Yes, year-to-year progression for a rookie to second and then third year is natural and expected.

But both Dak's rookie, and second year PRE-SLUMP numbers, are not good enough for more than "bus driver" status because he's not proficient at moving the ball through the air.

You can throw out his entire second half slump, if you want to, though that would be stupid because there is definitely something about his own play to be read into it, but even if you do, you still are left with a QB who needs improvement.

It's the epitome of homerville to say that Prescott is the same as Goff and Wentz, which is why you'll basically only find that opinion on a Cowboys message board from the most homeristic posters.

No you are wrong. Different system, different coaches and different receivers. Making the case you are doesn't make a bit of sense.

 

[Simpleton]

I'd say equal parts. The fact that he hasn't had a proper coach or vet QB outside of his rookie season is mind numbing.

Jason Garrett has 10+ years of experience as a QB in the league, on top of all his coaching experience, so you can rest easy.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

YPG is not useless at all, actually.

Sure it is. Team A score on 5 of 6 possession. Team B scores on 5 of 12 posessions. In your book team B's QB is likely the far superior QB. But in reality team A's QB is far and away better. More passing attempts doesn't equal a better QB. It equals a different offense.

So actually on this subject you're just wrong. No matter what you claim.

 

[Simpleton]

Yes, his YPG is much too low. He is unable to move the ball at a high level through the air compared to his peers. And it is not enough to say "We are a running offense" when the offense fell off the 14th in both yardage and scoring and he was not able to up his game. He personally must improve his ability here. His YPG struggles are a reflection not just of offensive design and playcalls, they are reflective of personal struggles to make all the throws and find open receivers in this scheme (which, as has already been discussed, is obviously also partly to blame). But Prescott has to do what he can in this scheme; Romo was able to excel in it.



Subjectively, objectively, however you cut it, Wentz and Goff are tangibly better than Prescott as passers. They may not be better protecting the ball. They may not have the 32 game track record of putting up points. But they have demonstrated mastery of being able to pick apart NFL defenses through the air; or at least "mastery" compared to Prescott's demonstrated ability of the same.

This is a "make or break a career" NFL skill. Colin Kaepernick once had many of the same positives going for him as an NFL QB.... running ability.... leading a winning offense..... etc. His inability to move the ball through the air at a high level, which was reflected by his low, low YPG (making the stat decidedly NOT irrelevant), eventually caught up with him.

Prescott must, MUST overcome that hurdle. He averaged 207 ypg last year. He was sub-200 yards passing in a game 8 times. Half the time! Four of those games were games we lost, and a fifth surely would have been a loss if the Eagles cared to compete that day. These are games were he personally isn't cutting it. 5 games out of 16, he's not even close. These aren't close, grind it out games. These are games where he needs to turn it on through the air and he can't.



Goff most certainly took a leap. His rookie year stats were abysmal and his second year stats were excellent. Coaching doesn't explain all that.



I'm not using it as a "definitive standard." It's one measurement that is in widespread use, so it's absolutely not arbitrary. And yes, it's the one very big statistic that he lags behind in. It's a fatal flaw of his to this point in his career. He is riding on this offense, not carrying it, to this point of his career. If he ever wants to carry the offense, he has to take a leap. And I can't commit a long term, hundred million dollar contract to a QB who can't carry the offensive load on his own shoulders.

Using Kaepernick as a comparison is unfair. He spent his entire career hovering around 60% completion % (and was often under 60) and only barely cracked 200 YPG once over 5 years.

You also give Goff and Wentz way too much credit for "carrying the offense". Each of them had top-flight running games and passing games that schemed easy throws for them, very similar to what Prescott had in 2016. When either of them starts carrying their teams to the extent that a Rodgers or Rivers have without much around them then we can talk.

 

[Smitty]

Using Kaepernick as a comparison is unfair. He spent his entire career hovering around 60% completion % (and was often under 60) and only barely cracked 200 YPG once over 5 years.

He's much better than Kaepernick, but that doesn't mean the YPG weakness isn't a fatal flaw. It is. Prescott at 207 ypg is just unacceptably bad. 229 ypg, like in his rookie year, is ok..... for a rookie.

As has been maintained, he needs to get that number up into the 240-250 range. If he can do that, with his TD:INT numbers, he's a Pro Bowl caliber QB every year capable of leading us to the Super Bowl.

If he stays around 220-230, he's horrendously pedestrian.

If he repeats 207, he'll be out of a job.

You can't gloss over these numbers like they mean nothing. He MUST get better at that. He cannot be a long term successful NFL QB without drastic improvement here.

And it's an area where Goff and Wentz have essentially already shown they will be fine. Cutting back on turnovers or increasing completion percentage with smarter decisions isn't nearly as hard as being able to master moving the ball through the air at a high level.

It's simply not accurate to say there is no difference between him and them. They are ahead of him, and it's why everyone would take them over him. Except Cowboys fans, shocking, I know.

You also give Goff and Wentz way too much credit for "carrying the offense". Each of them had top-flight running games and passing games that schemed easy throws for them, very similar to what Prescott had in 2016. When either of them starts carrying their teams to the extent that a Rodgers or Rivers have without much around them then we can talk.

They aren't there yet, but they look to be on that path.

Prescott has not shown to be on that path yet. He has more of a hill to climb at this point than they do.

Which is not to say he can't, but his best case projection, IMO, is more along the lines of an Alex Smith to Russell Wilson, rather than a Phillip Rivers to Aaron Rodgers. We're talking to 10, top 12 QB rather than top 3, top 5 QB.

Which is fine, when you have a good running game and good defense. But I would much rather have Wentz or Goff at this point.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I'd say equal parts. The fact that he hasn't had a proper coach or vet QB outside of his rookie season is mind numbing.

It's crazy how much impact an offensive coordinator can have in a league. But it's why Kyle Shannahan leaving the Falcons had Matt Ryan's stats plummeting and Jimmy Garoppolo looking like a savior in my opinion.

I was a big Goff fan coming out but had it not been for a brilliant young coach taking over that team I have no doubt that his numbers would have continued to stagnate. I wish Dak would have that benefit. But at this point his fortune seems to be tied to that of Linehan and Garrett and I don't have a ton of faith in them.

It's also why a guy like Nick Foles can look like warmed over dog shit and then go win a superbowl with a great offensive mind as his head coach.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Jason Garrett has 10+ years of experience as a QB in the league, on top of all his coaching experience, so you can rest easy.

I laughed.

Surprised Sturm used the fact that he lost the best LT and RB in the game as such an excuse. Um, Bob, the other top QBs in the league play under those supposed limitations their entire careers.

Anyway, I'm in the middle on Dak. He's not as good as he looked his rookie year but he's much better than some of detractors claim. Imo, worst case he's Andy Dalton -- but with all the other talent on this team, that's good enough to keep this franchise relevant, Jerry happy, and Garrett employed.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I laughed.

Surprised Sturm used the fact that he lost the best LT and RB in the game as such an excuse. Um, Bob, the other top QBs in the league play under those supposed limitations their entire careers.

Anyway, I'm in the middle on Dak. He's not as good as he looked his rookie year but he's much better than some of detractors claim. Imo, worst case he's Andy Dalton -- but with all the other talent on this team, that's good enough to keep this franchise relevant, Jerry happy, and Garrett employed.

I think it was more an explanation of why he wasn't as good in 2017 as opposed to 2016.

 

[UncleMilti]

This is another example of what I wrote about this morning in the training camp thread regarding the Cowboys settling for average coaching.

Dak has shown that he can play in this league at a high level. Unfortunately the Cowboys haven't done him any favors since the end of the 2017 season. Most teams who have a young QB who they believe is their long-term franchise QB, will do their best to surround that young QB with all the tools to succeed. They'll bring in experienced backup QBs, experienced position coaches, etc. Dallas has done the complete opposite.

I know Ace and others have pointed this out repeatedly.

Because of this I have my doubts that Dak will play up to what we saw in 2016.

I pointed out in another thread that I didn’t believe it was a coincidence that Prescott had a great year because he had #9 helping him on the sidelines.

So you are very correct in what you pointed out above. The Cowboys are not giving Prescott the tools he needs to succeed.

Of course, it’s damning that a career bum QB like Pederson as a coach would be able to rub our golden child QB/Coach’s nose in shit but that’s exactly what the Eagles have done. Wentz had tons of growing pains but Pederson made sure he adjusted so the kid could learn but still be productive. I’m betting that’s how Romo helped Dak in his 1st season.

Garrett’s refusal to change his archaic offense coupled with Jerry Jones idiocy of continuity and learn on the job belief of his HC most likely spells doom for Prescott. I don’t think Prescott is a bad QB, but he needs coaches that can get the best out of him. And it damn sure ain’t Linehan and the Boise bozo.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I pointed out in another thread that I didn’t believe it was a coincidence that Prescott had a great year because he had #9 helping him on the sidelines.

So you are very correct in what you pointed out above. The Cowboys are not giving Prescott the tools he needs to succeed.

Of course, it’s damning that a career bum QB like Pederson would be able to rub our golden child QBs nose in shit but that’s exactly what the Eagles have done. Wentz had tons of growing pains but Pederson made sure he adjusted so the kid could learn but still be productive. I’m betting that’s how Romo helped Dak in his 1st season.

Garrett’s refusal to change his archaic offense coupled with Jerry Jones idiocy of continuity and learn on the job belief of his HC most likely spells doom for Prescott. I don’t think Prescott is a bad QB, but he needs coaches that can get the best out of him. And it damn sure ain’t Linehan and the Boise bozo.

No kidding, I'm sure having Romo on the sidelines was a massive help. It's sad we can't find someone of that caliber intelligence to help coach our QB. They don't have to have had a great NFL career to do that but maybe someone with at least some experience of success either as a player or as a coach. Instead we surround Dak with mediocre QB guys. From Garrett all the way down.

 

[L.T. Fan]

Jjj7

I pointed out in another thread that I didn’t believe it was a coincidence that Prescott had a great year because he had #9 helping him on the sidelines.

So you are very correct in what you pointed out above. The Cowboys are not giving Prescott the tools he needs to succeed.

Of course, it’s damning that a career bum QB like Pederson as a coach would be able to rub our golden child QB/Coach’s nose in shit but that’s exactly what the Eagles have done. Wentz had tons of growing pains but Pederson made sure he adjusted so the kid could learn but still be productive. I’m betting that’s how Romo helped Dak in his 1st season.

Garrett’s refusal to change his archaic offense coupled with Jerry Jones idiocy of continuity and learn on the job belief of his HC most likely spells doom for Prescott. I don’t think Prescott is a bad QB, but he needs coaches that can get the best out of him. And it damn sure ain’t Linehan and the Boise bozo.

The biggest factor was that Dak had all his plays called for him with no read responsibilities in 16 It was almost like a practice became everyone knew what the play was and that it was going to happen that way with no variables or reads. The 17 season they threw the playbook at him and expected him to read and execute like Romo.

 

[p1_]

You know, as Dak goes, so goes Garrett. If Dak fails, Garrett fails right along with him. Theres no way to spin it that Garrett's fate isnt sealed with Daks. Thats some depressing shit right there.

 

[vince]

No kidding, I'm sure having Romo on the sidelines was a massive help. It's sad we can't find someone of that caliber intelligence to help coach our QB. They don't have to have had a great NFL career to do that but maybe someone with at least some experience of success either as a player or as a coach. Instead we surround Dak with mediocre QB guys. From Garrett all the way down.

We have Kellen Moore!