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Is there an NFL player with more at stake in 2018 than Dak Prescott?
By Bob Sturm 5h ago
Many NFL players have a lot on the line this season. Their team’s fates rest on their ability, as does their own earning potential.
But could there possibly be a player in the NFL with more on the line than Dak Prescott as the quarterback enters his third year?
If there is such a player – especially one who holds one of the league’s 32 starting QB spots – then his identity is not coming quickly to my mind.
Sure, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning could be on their last legs, but with their career stories written and all of those amazing checks cashed, their respective legacies are essentially guaranteed.
Yes, Andrew Luck is one of many who could use a big retrenching year, but still, the Colts aren’t going to give up on him.
There are also younger QBs who will be expected at to deliver the goods – looking at you, Baker – but their organizations will surely allow the calendar to move well into 2020 before they go in yet another new direction.
But here is Dak Prescott. A guy who has been in the league for two years and has largely exceeded the bar of any young QB on a team that has won 22 of the 32 games he has started in the regular season. He has lost his only playoff game, but played incredibly well but was beaten by a Hall of Famer at the final gun.
As Prescott enters his third campaign, you could paint two wildly different scenarios that both seem plausible. He is either:
A) Less than 12 months away from being the next $100 million dollar QB and locked into the Cowboys’ starting QB spot until 2023 or 2024 at well over $20m per season.
B) Entering the 2019 training camp with the knowledge that the Cowboys drafted his potential successor with a premium pick that April, and now he must compete for his own job in his final year under contract.
That contract, by the way, pays him about $630k in 2018 and $720k in 2019. It’s great money outside the NFL, but you should know that the Cowboys pay their long-snapper LP Ladouceur over a million a season to do his job. So Prescott makes almost nothing in this NFL world. Even if this was all I used to make the claim that he has more on his shoulders than any other player, it would seem enough. His career earnings will be well under $3m as a four-year starting NFL quarterback. There is no greater bargain. But if he has a poor 2018, the Cowboys will have plenty to ponder about whether they want to get married and pay him the going rate of a veteran NFL starting QB.
But there is so much more than the money at stake. There is the noise. The noise of not being Tony Romo, that is screamed continuously by large swaths of the fan base. Incidentally, it is true. Prescott is not Romo and that will not change. He is a different QB with different pros and cons and honestly, aside from being players that the Cowboys found on massive discounts, they don’t have a whole lot in common. Romo was great and led this team well for a long time, but never had to take a meaningful snap until his fourth season. Prescott has never been involved in a regular season game as a professional in which he didn’t start. Romo had to follow a several-year gap since Troy Aikman was the last Cowboys hero.
Prescott had to run onto the field where Romo still laid injured.
There is also the ever-present component of Prescott being an African-American QB in the middle of the latest Jerry Jones public stance over the National Anthem and how “America’s Team” will handle it. Prescott is caught in the middle and hearing from both sides how he should feel — and then subsequently act — because of who he is and what that means. This dilemma does him no favors, only amplifying the pressure and noise that he deals with on a daily basis. Both sides of this polarizing issue want Prescott to respond to their wishes and to do it now. And if he doesn’t, he will be in big trouble with that group and their agenda. Oh, and if he remains somewhat neutral, he will get verbally beaten up for that, too.
Oh, and then this: Ask Aikman or Romo or Roger Staubach or Danny White how hard the job itself actually is. Being a starting QB in the NFL is a nearly impossible job. Doing that same job in the uniform of the legends that came before you cranks up the degree of difficulty substantially. You are on a short leash and if you don’t deliver trophies, you will never be fully embraced. Heck, you could argue that Tony Romo’s public approval rating in this city skyrocketed the season he stopped playing. I might put forth the idea that he has never been more popular with Cowboys fans than he is today — partially because he is not the starting QB anymore, and they can remember him for the good times and wash away the bad as someone else’s fault.
Let’s simplify by asking the following basic question: Is Prescott the future of the Dallas Cowboys at the QB position that will help them compete for a trophy during his time here?
To me, the answer very likely comes down to this season.
In 33 starts as the Dallas Cowboys’ QB, it is easy to argue that Prescott has exceeded all expectations by several miles. But if that is true, why are so many Cowboys fans unimpressed and seemingly open to the premise that the team should continue to shop for their next QB?
Let’s suggest for a moment that it all comes down to last season. I don’t think it does with many, because the popular fan theory that that gets emailed to me all the time is that Romo should still be the QB and was healthy enough to take his team back in November of 2016. Under this hypothesis, if he was given that team back, he surely would have taken that 2016 squad to higher heights than Prescott and maybe even a Super Bowl. And, if that happens, he is still the QB in 2017 and, yes, today.
I find this a preposterous premise based on the condition of Romo’s spine and the regularity of his catastrophic injuries speeding up to an absurd pace from 2014-2016, but sometimes a theory doesn’t have to make sense for it to gain speed with the populace. Why would Jerry Jones be in a big hurry to push Tony Romo to the curb when he loved Romo more than any GM should ever love a player? That has never been fully explained, but to that corner of the fandom, this theory seems to have already assigned two strikes to Prescott.
Romo’s greatest attribute was his ability to raise the team up a level when things weren’t always right. So, in 2017 when Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension kicked in, the referendum on Prescott was ready. Could Prescott save the season and make all the plays needed to cover for Zeke?
As you know, those next three games – against Atlanta, Philadelphia, and the Chargers on Thanksgiving, were absolutely some of the worst offensive performances in Cowboys history. Tyron Smith also was absent, which is a massive deal that some forget, but the offense was so bad that they didn’t score in double-digits in any of those games and lost by an almost-comical combined score of 92-22.
Prescott was beaten up, shaken, and frankly looked like he lost all confidence without his two best players. The coaching staff offered no real assistance and the offense looked like that of an expansion team. They eventually broke out of it and salvaged important wins in succession against Washington, New York, and Oakland without Zeke. But once the Seattle game was lost – for a whole list of frustrating reasons – the focal point returned to the QB. If Dak is so great, why didn’t he save the season?
I was able to talk with Prescott this week about that stretch of games and whether the punishment of all of the sacks and hits were an additional challenge as well as an experience that could ultimately be a positive learning trip and his responses were very similar to what we have come to expect from him: “I was able to come out of that physically okay but I learned from it. That’s exactly what that was, twelve hard days — I mean twelve days that I will remember for the rest of my career because I think it taught me a lot that’s going to be able to shape up everything I need and teach me a lot going forward in my career. You take it for what it is, you learn from it you continue to push forward and that’s what I’ve been able to do.”
We went on to discuss the moment he knew that the slump was turning back around and he responded, “Once we just kinda got back going I mean it was a deal within the team. The team had a different vibe and the team had different chemistry when we came out of it and Coach Garrett did a great job of having a team meeting saying, ‘Those twelve days weren’t the best twelve days of us individually and collectively as an organization as individuals and as a team.’ We’re going to push that behind us and we’re going to move forward and we’re going to show everybody in the country exactly who we are each and every day and just earn it and start over. Basically just having to hit the reset button and do that.”
He says all the right things. He almost always does the right things. He is Central Casting’s version of what a QB is supposed to be. But can he be the QB who battles Carson Wentz for years to come?
Let’s look at some important information. First, the fascinating statistical profiles of Wentz and Prescott. This is kicking around the internet and I wanted you to see it here:
Now, these numbers are all objectively accurate as a two-year comparison. They don’t indicate a few important things – foremost among them that Prescott undeniably was better in his first year than in his second, and Wentz was undeniably better in his second year than in his first.
The graphic also does not indicate the important factor that there may not be any humans on the planet that felt Prescott was as good or better than Wentz on draft day of 2016. It does not indicate that Wentz was the #2 overall pick and is paid an average of $6.7 million a season on his rookie deal while Prescott was pick #135 and is paid an average of $680,000 a season.
It also does not measure their level of supporting casts, injuries, opponents, or head-to-head battles. All it does do is it makes a case that statistically, Prescott and Wentz are not far apart at all. That said, two years later, it would appear that there are still very few humans on the planet who feel they would rather have Prescott than Wentz.
The Eagles have a QB with superior pedigree and superior perception in the league. He is the QB of the defending Super Bowl Champions – a title which they won with him in street clothes. As they say, it is what it is.
But the Cowboys have their own young QB who appears to have some very strong attributes and performances already in the bag. Surely, that is worth plenty.
Now let’s talk about this:
IMPORTANT NOTE: In the last eight games, Elliot and Smith played only three snaps together.
People say the Cowboys offense was bad in 2017. They are only half-right. The numbers on the left detail their effectiveness in Games 1-8 and those on the right paint a picture of Games 9-16. Those league rankings seem to indicate that for the entirety of 2016 and the first half of 2017, you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys were a Top-5 offense and they were doing it with a mid-round baby QB who was making less than a long-snapper. Big spoiler here: if you have a top 5 offense for a year-and-a-half, there is nothing wrong with your QB.
Was Prescott the bus driver or was he the MVP? Was he the reason for the success or was he only a part of it? I mean, wasn’t he the beneficiary of a great OL and an awesome RB? It honestly sounds like the chicken-or-egg conversations of Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman. But none of us cared, because both offenses were winning more than two games for every game they ever lost. In fact, the actual win-loss record over those 24 regular season games was a ridiculous 18-6. Any QB in league history would take that, much less one Dak’s age
What happened in those last eight games? Please review the note in bold: In the last eight games, Elliot and Smith played only three snaps together.
Do you think that losing the best running back and the best left tackle in the industry might affect the outcome of games (and the performance of a QB) in a league where the slimmest of margins matter? I do.
But let’s see if the stats tell a similar story. Here are the four eight-game spans of the Dak Prescott era:
Look at the passing touchdowns, passer ratings, sacks allowed, and total touchdowns!
Might we politely suggest that it is rather clear which of the four half-seasons were played without Zeke Elliott and Tyron Smith? Doesn’t that half-season look like a complete anomaly and perhaps the target of “one of these things is not like the others?”
Now let’s look at those same four half-seasons with Prescott’s league rank in those periods.
Again, assuming you want high rankings in all categories but interceptions, Prescott is in the top half of the league in most important categories and top-10 in fewest interceptions, rush yards, rush TDs, and total touchdowns (passing + rushing) from a QB.
In other words, if getting the team into the end zone is the job of any QB, he is doing that as regularly as almost any QB in the industry. He sits ninth there. Those ahead of him and his 57 Touchdowns produced in two years? Here is the full list.
Drew Brees – 64 (age 39)
Philip Rivers – 61 (36)
Tom Brady – 60 (41)
Aaron Rodgers – 60 (34)
Kirk Cousins – 60 (29)
Russell Wilson – 59 (29)
Ben Roethlisberger – 58 (36)
Matt Ryan – 58 (33)
Just two of those eight are under 30 and both turn 30 this fall. Prescott is 25 years old.
Also, despite producing 57 touchdowns, he has a running back in Elliott who leads the league in touchdowns with 22. No other QB on that list has a runner taking away so many touchdowns — or even one ranked in the top-5. Dak’s RB scores the most – which you think would cost Prescott from being on this list. But it doesn’t.
Let me show you one more thing before I conclude. After the Kansas City game last year, I became very interested in how the first 24 starts of Dak Prescott compared with other quarterbacks starting their first 24 games from a standpoint of most touchdowns and fewest interceptions. It is one thing to make big plays if you are also making big plays for your opponent. Peak Prescott was not doing that. He was making big plays and avoiding negative ones. So my friends at STATS, INC showed me a few things:
So this shows that in the history of football, Prescott had the best TD/INT ratio of any QB ever. EVER. And by a very considerable margin at 6.1:1. That seems really good.
And then this one, too:
This one is not tied to a ratio, but to the number of overall touchdowns produced by a QB. Prescott is “only” seventh all-time, but look at the company he keeps. Look at the quality. Look at the first-round picks. Look at the Hall of Famers.
My conclusion is pretty simple: I have no idea where Dak Prescott’s career is going and neither do you.
But his first two chapters are undeniably great. Whether you like it or can explain it away in some sort of reductive way, Prescott’s career is off to a phenomenal start. If the 2016 draft was reset, he would still be taken behind Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and several others. But, he would move way up the list and be a top-10 pick. Prescott has played historically well through 2016 and 2017 and the timing of his speed bump was not a coincidence. It took place when his two best teammates went away and his coaching staff went out to lunch, too.
He probably will never be Staubach, Aikman, or even Romo. But, doggone, is he better than most seem to realize through his first two seasons – all as a fourth-round compensatory pick.
This is a massive year for Prescott, and I admit that if my theory is wrong and he continues to play poorly with Zeke and Tyron back, then next spring they will have some very difficult decisions to make. He will have every right to a big contract if he plays well and the bidding starts at the Derek Carr deal (5 years/$125 million). Considering how every QB deal appears to exceed the next, even that might not be enough.
This is quite a season for the young man. He must do some things better. He must push the ball down the field, but continue to make smart decisions. He has no shortage of doubters. But, perhaps this exercise has allowed you to notice that so far, his report card has very impressive grades on it. He has done things that were thought impossible for a young QB – let alone a fourth-round guy you drafted to hopefully someday be a good backup.
Now you see that he has put his team in the end zone more times than any QB under 30 (by November)? Was he spending those two early seasons of his career figuring out the league or was the league figuring out him? Will he get better with age or will he be an odd foot-note in history? Literally, every possibility is still in play for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
It remains up to him and this offense to show us where the story goes next.
By Bob Sturm 5h ago
Many NFL players have a lot on the line this season. Their team’s fates rest on their ability, as does their own earning potential.
But could there possibly be a player in the NFL with more on the line than Dak Prescott as the quarterback enters his third year?
If there is such a player – especially one who holds one of the league’s 32 starting QB spots – then his identity is not coming quickly to my mind.
Sure, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning could be on their last legs, but with their career stories written and all of those amazing checks cashed, their respective legacies are essentially guaranteed.
Yes, Andrew Luck is one of many who could use a big retrenching year, but still, the Colts aren’t going to give up on him.
There are also younger QBs who will be expected at to deliver the goods – looking at you, Baker – but their organizations will surely allow the calendar to move well into 2020 before they go in yet another new direction.
But here is Dak Prescott. A guy who has been in the league for two years and has largely exceeded the bar of any young QB on a team that has won 22 of the 32 games he has started in the regular season. He has lost his only playoff game, but played incredibly well but was beaten by a Hall of Famer at the final gun.
As Prescott enters his third campaign, you could paint two wildly different scenarios that both seem plausible. He is either:
A) Less than 12 months away from being the next $100 million dollar QB and locked into the Cowboys’ starting QB spot until 2023 or 2024 at well over $20m per season.
B) Entering the 2019 training camp with the knowledge that the Cowboys drafted his potential successor with a premium pick that April, and now he must compete for his own job in his final year under contract.
That contract, by the way, pays him about $630k in 2018 and $720k in 2019. It’s great money outside the NFL, but you should know that the Cowboys pay their long-snapper LP Ladouceur over a million a season to do his job. So Prescott makes almost nothing in this NFL world. Even if this was all I used to make the claim that he has more on his shoulders than any other player, it would seem enough. His career earnings will be well under $3m as a four-year starting NFL quarterback. There is no greater bargain. But if he has a poor 2018, the Cowboys will have plenty to ponder about whether they want to get married and pay him the going rate of a veteran NFL starting QB.
But there is so much more than the money at stake. There is the noise. The noise of not being Tony Romo, that is screamed continuously by large swaths of the fan base. Incidentally, it is true. Prescott is not Romo and that will not change. He is a different QB with different pros and cons and honestly, aside from being players that the Cowboys found on massive discounts, they don’t have a whole lot in common. Romo was great and led this team well for a long time, but never had to take a meaningful snap until his fourth season. Prescott has never been involved in a regular season game as a professional in which he didn’t start. Romo had to follow a several-year gap since Troy Aikman was the last Cowboys hero.
Prescott had to run onto the field where Romo still laid injured.
There is also the ever-present component of Prescott being an African-American QB in the middle of the latest Jerry Jones public stance over the National Anthem and how “America’s Team” will handle it. Prescott is caught in the middle and hearing from both sides how he should feel — and then subsequently act — because of who he is and what that means. This dilemma does him no favors, only amplifying the pressure and noise that he deals with on a daily basis. Both sides of this polarizing issue want Prescott to respond to their wishes and to do it now. And if he doesn’t, he will be in big trouble with that group and their agenda. Oh, and if he remains somewhat neutral, he will get verbally beaten up for that, too.
Oh, and then this: Ask Aikman or Romo or Roger Staubach or Danny White how hard the job itself actually is. Being a starting QB in the NFL is a nearly impossible job. Doing that same job in the uniform of the legends that came before you cranks up the degree of difficulty substantially. You are on a short leash and if you don’t deliver trophies, you will never be fully embraced. Heck, you could argue that Tony Romo’s public approval rating in this city skyrocketed the season he stopped playing. I might put forth the idea that he has never been more popular with Cowboys fans than he is today — partially because he is not the starting QB anymore, and they can remember him for the good times and wash away the bad as someone else’s fault.
Let’s simplify by asking the following basic question: Is Prescott the future of the Dallas Cowboys at the QB position that will help them compete for a trophy during his time here?
To me, the answer very likely comes down to this season.
In 33 starts as the Dallas Cowboys’ QB, it is easy to argue that Prescott has exceeded all expectations by several miles. But if that is true, why are so many Cowboys fans unimpressed and seemingly open to the premise that the team should continue to shop for their next QB?
Let’s suggest for a moment that it all comes down to last season. I don’t think it does with many, because the popular fan theory that that gets emailed to me all the time is that Romo should still be the QB and was healthy enough to take his team back in November of 2016. Under this hypothesis, if he was given that team back, he surely would have taken that 2016 squad to higher heights than Prescott and maybe even a Super Bowl. And, if that happens, he is still the QB in 2017 and, yes, today.
I find this a preposterous premise based on the condition of Romo’s spine and the regularity of his catastrophic injuries speeding up to an absurd pace from 2014-2016, but sometimes a theory doesn’t have to make sense for it to gain speed with the populace. Why would Jerry Jones be in a big hurry to push Tony Romo to the curb when he loved Romo more than any GM should ever love a player? That has never been fully explained, but to that corner of the fandom, this theory seems to have already assigned two strikes to Prescott.
Romo’s greatest attribute was his ability to raise the team up a level when things weren’t always right. So, in 2017 when Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension kicked in, the referendum on Prescott was ready. Could Prescott save the season and make all the plays needed to cover for Zeke?
As you know, those next three games – against Atlanta, Philadelphia, and the Chargers on Thanksgiving, were absolutely some of the worst offensive performances in Cowboys history. Tyron Smith also was absent, which is a massive deal that some forget, but the offense was so bad that they didn’t score in double-digits in any of those games and lost by an almost-comical combined score of 92-22.
Prescott was beaten up, shaken, and frankly looked like he lost all confidence without his two best players. The coaching staff offered no real assistance and the offense looked like that of an expansion team. They eventually broke out of it and salvaged important wins in succession against Washington, New York, and Oakland without Zeke. But once the Seattle game was lost – for a whole list of frustrating reasons – the focal point returned to the QB. If Dak is so great, why didn’t he save the season?
I was able to talk with Prescott this week about that stretch of games and whether the punishment of all of the sacks and hits were an additional challenge as well as an experience that could ultimately be a positive learning trip and his responses were very similar to what we have come to expect from him: “I was able to come out of that physically okay but I learned from it. That’s exactly what that was, twelve hard days — I mean twelve days that I will remember for the rest of my career because I think it taught me a lot that’s going to be able to shape up everything I need and teach me a lot going forward in my career. You take it for what it is, you learn from it you continue to push forward and that’s what I’ve been able to do.”
We went on to discuss the moment he knew that the slump was turning back around and he responded, “Once we just kinda got back going I mean it was a deal within the team. The team had a different vibe and the team had different chemistry when we came out of it and Coach Garrett did a great job of having a team meeting saying, ‘Those twelve days weren’t the best twelve days of us individually and collectively as an organization as individuals and as a team.’ We’re going to push that behind us and we’re going to move forward and we’re going to show everybody in the country exactly who we are each and every day and just earn it and start over. Basically just having to hit the reset button and do that.”
He says all the right things. He almost always does the right things. He is Central Casting’s version of what a QB is supposed to be. But can he be the QB who battles Carson Wentz for years to come?
Let’s look at some important information. First, the fascinating statistical profiles of Wentz and Prescott. This is kicking around the internet and I wanted you to see it here:
Now, these numbers are all objectively accurate as a two-year comparison. They don’t indicate a few important things – foremost among them that Prescott undeniably was better in his first year than in his second, and Wentz was undeniably better in his second year than in his first.
The graphic also does not indicate the important factor that there may not be any humans on the planet that felt Prescott was as good or better than Wentz on draft day of 2016. It does not indicate that Wentz was the #2 overall pick and is paid an average of $6.7 million a season on his rookie deal while Prescott was pick #135 and is paid an average of $680,000 a season.
It also does not measure their level of supporting casts, injuries, opponents, or head-to-head battles. All it does do is it makes a case that statistically, Prescott and Wentz are not far apart at all. That said, two years later, it would appear that there are still very few humans on the planet who feel they would rather have Prescott than Wentz.
The Eagles have a QB with superior pedigree and superior perception in the league. He is the QB of the defending Super Bowl Champions – a title which they won with him in street clothes. As they say, it is what it is.
But the Cowboys have their own young QB who appears to have some very strong attributes and performances already in the bag. Surely, that is worth plenty.
Now let’s talk about this:
IMPORTANT NOTE: In the last eight games, Elliot and Smith played only three snaps together.
People say the Cowboys offense was bad in 2017. They are only half-right. The numbers on the left detail their effectiveness in Games 1-8 and those on the right paint a picture of Games 9-16. Those league rankings seem to indicate that for the entirety of 2016 and the first half of 2017, you could argue that the Dallas Cowboys were a Top-5 offense and they were doing it with a mid-round baby QB who was making less than a long-snapper. Big spoiler here: if you have a top 5 offense for a year-and-a-half, there is nothing wrong with your QB.
Was Prescott the bus driver or was he the MVP? Was he the reason for the success or was he only a part of it? I mean, wasn’t he the beneficiary of a great OL and an awesome RB? It honestly sounds like the chicken-or-egg conversations of Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman. But none of us cared, because both offenses were winning more than two games for every game they ever lost. In fact, the actual win-loss record over those 24 regular season games was a ridiculous 18-6. Any QB in league history would take that, much less one Dak’s age
What happened in those last eight games? Please review the note in bold: In the last eight games, Elliot and Smith played only three snaps together.
Do you think that losing the best running back and the best left tackle in the industry might affect the outcome of games (and the performance of a QB) in a league where the slimmest of margins matter? I do.
But let’s see if the stats tell a similar story. Here are the four eight-game spans of the Dak Prescott era:
| Year | Games | Comp | Att | Comp % | Yds | Pass TD | Int | Pass Rate | Sacks | Run Yds | Run TDs | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Gm 1-8 | 165 | 248 | 66.5% | 2020 | 12 | 2 | 104.2 | 11 | 125 | 4 | 16 |
| 2016 | Gm 9-16 | 146 | 211 | 69.2% | 1647 | 11 | 2 | 105.7 | 14 | 157 | 2 | 13 |
| 2017 | Gm 1-8 | 163 | 259 | 62.9% | 1818 | 16 | 4 | 97.9 | 10 | 195 | 4 | 20 |
| 2017 | Gm 9-16 | 145 | 231 | 62.8% | 1506 | 6 | 9 | 74 | 22 | 162 | 2 | 8 |
Look at the passing touchdowns, passer ratings, sacks allowed, and total touchdowns!
Might we politely suggest that it is rather clear which of the four half-seasons were played without Zeke Elliott and Tyron Smith? Doesn’t that half-season look like a complete anomaly and perhaps the target of “one of these things is not like the others?”
Now let’s look at those same four half-seasons with Prescott’s league rank in those periods.
| Year | Games | Yds | Pass TD | Int | Pass Rate | Sacks | Run Yds | Run TDs | Total TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Gm 1-8 | 17th | 12th | 28th | 4th | 25th | 10th | 1st | 11th |
| 2016 | Gm 9-16 | 21st | 14th | 25th | 3rd | 17th | 6th | 3rd | 11th |
| 2017 | Gm 1-8 | 19th | 5th | 22nd | 12th | 27th | 6th | 1st | 3rd |
| 2017 | Gm 9-16 | 22nd | 25th | 3rd | 40th | 4th | 9th | 2nd | 22nd |
| Career | 17th | 13rd | 24th | 11th | 15th | 10th | 1st | 9th |
Again, assuming you want high rankings in all categories but interceptions, Prescott is in the top half of the league in most important categories and top-10 in fewest interceptions, rush yards, rush TDs, and total touchdowns (passing + rushing) from a QB.
In other words, if getting the team into the end zone is the job of any QB, he is doing that as regularly as almost any QB in the industry. He sits ninth there. Those ahead of him and his 57 Touchdowns produced in two years? Here is the full list.
Drew Brees – 64 (age 39)
Philip Rivers – 61 (36)
Tom Brady – 60 (41)
Aaron Rodgers – 60 (34)
Kirk Cousins – 60 (29)
Russell Wilson – 59 (29)
Ben Roethlisberger – 58 (36)
Matt Ryan – 58 (33)
Just two of those eight are under 30 and both turn 30 this fall. Prescott is 25 years old.
Also, despite producing 57 touchdowns, he has a running back in Elliott who leads the league in touchdowns with 22. No other QB on that list has a runner taking away so many touchdowns — or even one ranked in the top-5. Dak’s RB scores the most – which you think would cost Prescott from being on this list. But it doesn’t.
Let me show you one more thing before I conclude. After the Kansas City game last year, I became very interested in how the first 24 starts of Dak Prescott compared with other quarterbacks starting their first 24 games from a standpoint of most touchdowns and fewest interceptions. It is one thing to make big plays if you are also making big plays for your opponent. Peak Prescott was not doing that. He was making big plays and avoiding negative ones. So my friends at STATS, INC showed me a few things:
So this shows that in the history of football, Prescott had the best TD/INT ratio of any QB ever. EVER. And by a very considerable margin at 6.1:1. That seems really good.
And then this one, too:
This one is not tied to a ratio, but to the number of overall touchdowns produced by a QB. Prescott is “only” seventh all-time, but look at the company he keeps. Look at the quality. Look at the first-round picks. Look at the Hall of Famers.
My conclusion is pretty simple: I have no idea where Dak Prescott’s career is going and neither do you.
But his first two chapters are undeniably great. Whether you like it or can explain it away in some sort of reductive way, Prescott’s career is off to a phenomenal start. If the 2016 draft was reset, he would still be taken behind Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and several others. But, he would move way up the list and be a top-10 pick. Prescott has played historically well through 2016 and 2017 and the timing of his speed bump was not a coincidence. It took place when his two best teammates went away and his coaching staff went out to lunch, too.
He probably will never be Staubach, Aikman, or even Romo. But, doggone, is he better than most seem to realize through his first two seasons – all as a fourth-round compensatory pick.
This is a massive year for Prescott, and I admit that if my theory is wrong and he continues to play poorly with Zeke and Tyron back, then next spring they will have some very difficult decisions to make. He will have every right to a big contract if he plays well and the bidding starts at the Derek Carr deal (5 years/$125 million). Considering how every QB deal appears to exceed the next, even that might not be enough.
This is quite a season for the young man. He must do some things better. He must push the ball down the field, but continue to make smart decisions. He has no shortage of doubters. But, perhaps this exercise has allowed you to notice that so far, his report card has very impressive grades on it. He has done things that were thought impossible for a young QB – let alone a fourth-round guy you drafted to hopefully someday be a good backup.
Now you see that he has put his team in the end zone more times than any QB under 30 (by November)? Was he spending those two early seasons of his career figuring out the league or was the league figuring out him? Will he get better with age or will he be an odd foot-note in history? Literally, every possibility is still in play for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
It remains up to him and this offense to show us where the story goes next.
