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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
The offseason comes in waves or a series of news cycles, many filled with contrived and manufactured plots, crashing against the shore one after the next. Most every one occupies some length of time, air space and conversation. But in the end, they run out of steam and head back out to sea, only to be overtaken by the next. I suppose it props up the sport in its down season, but there must be a better way.
Since the Cowboys lost in Los Angeles to end their 2018 campaign, we have fought through a series of these waves. They have carried us from the job security of Jason Garrett to the overhaul of the front office to the free agency of DeMarcus Lawrence to the price tag of Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to, now, a wave of discussions about Ezekiel Elliott’s future.
This wave, at least, had a reasonably obvious genesis with the recent demands of Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (drafted one year earlier), who suggested that without a new contract to his liking, he will not show up to camp ahead of the fifth and final season of his five-year rookie deal. Gordon saw the Le’Veon Bell situation play out in 2018, in which Bell was eventually able to get the “top of the market” contract he wanted in March after not playing a snap since 2017. (It can easily be debated whether he came out ahead, however.)
That led media folks like me to surmise that Ezekiel Elliott is certainly watching Gordon’s story with great interest, and a subsequent holdout seems inevitable. So the Cowboys obviously watch with great interest, too. And, yes, so are the legions of folks who have debated the wisdom of investing in a running back in a world when the league continues to tell us the ground game is living on borrowed time. Will the Cowboys marry Elliott at top dollar for years and years to come when the league is headed elsewhere? [HR][/HR]
Before we tackle that, though, a brief overview on the direction of the NFL.
We grew up in a “balanced offense” football world, with coaches telling us we needed a run for every pass. We needed to occupy the defense with a battering ram that will make them forget about the ambush over the top with one of those risky throws. Just look at what the span of 50 years has shown us:
Balance once meant 50/50. But, surely, in today’s shorthand, run-pass balance means a rate closer to 40/60. Given what we see at the college level – which has certainly started to help transform the professional ranks by the year – could we see it move to 35/65 or even 30/70 before long? Kliff Kingsbury has just been hired by the NFL and it wasn’t because he won everything there was to win at the college ranks. Rather, it was because his offense and offenses like it — which use the run only as a change-up pitch to set up more passing — are the newest direction for the NFL. Why? Because damage is done through the passing game, and no other variation of offense comes close when it comes to the yields of yardage, points and every single analytic that exists on this matter. You can and will still use the running game, but only in moderation. It is all to set up more opportunities through the air.
Add this to what we already know about running backs – no position takes more punishment and has a shorter career span – and you can quickly see why the NFL continues to suggest that teams will seldom invest heavily on running backs beyond the age of 25 or so with a second contract. When we were young, there was great debate about the “talisman” of an offense. Would you rather lose the running back or the quarterback for a month? Now that question is absurd in nearly every city. Sure, the running back might be dynamic, but if he is, it is because he is a danger in the passing game as well as the running game. No running back can carry an offense with a sub-par quarterback anymore.
The battering ram running back has gone the way of the post-up center in the NBA: Often employed, but seldom compensated like his mates. The game evolved, and the financials evolved with it. [HR][/HR]
Back to the Cowboys and their particular situation that should, and will, have many yelling “But Elliott does carry this offense!” at their screens. There is no denying Elliott has produced at a phenomenal rate since entering the league. He has led the NFL in rushing over those three years by a healthy margin. Since 2016, he has 4,048 yards, which is 600 yards beyond any other player despite missing eight games over that stretch. Re-read that last sentence, and let it soak in. His total yards from scrimmage also leads the NFL during that span by over 100 yards (Todd Gurley finished second in both categories, by the way) and he ranks fifth in total touchdowns (34) behind Gurley, Gordon, Antonio Brown and Davante Adams, each of whom score a large portion of their touchdowns through the air.
Only one team, Buffalo, has more yards on the ground during these three seasons. Only two, Green Bay and Cleveland, have more yards per carry – and both run quite infrequently.
During this span, Elliott also has the second-most receptions on the Cowboys and the fourth-most receiving yards. No Cowboy has scored even 15 touchdowns beside Zeke and Prescott (18).
Should you try to find the “MVP” of a Cowboys team that has won 67% of their games in three seasons, you would certainly know who is winning that award around here. He is a machine. He is durable. And he has been exactly what the Cowboys thought they were drafting when they disappointed many of us by using their best draft pick in 25 years to take a player at a position that the league believes should be an afterthought. You should take premium positions with premium picks, right? Well, the Cowboys disagreed on either the premise about the position or the premise about the player. Or both.
This chart is similar to the one above, but only includes Dallas, and just since Jason Garrett has been the head coach, from 2010 through 2018. I am often asked, “What is Jason Garrett’s offense?” To that, I respond with the questions of “What year is it?”, “What are the circumstances going in?”, and “Was he able to stick with his plan?” You see, unlike Bill Belichick, Andy Reid — or yes, even Kliff Kingsbury — there is no real predictable pattern of run-pass with this coach. We have seen two extremes that few coaches can match:
Just look at that. From 2011 through 2013, the Cowboys ran the ball 31st-most in the NFL. Then, on a dime, they shifted to first in the NFL from 2014 through 2017. Before you credit Scott Linehan for changing that philosophy around here, you should know that the only reason the Cowboys weren’t 32nd in rushing from 2011-2013 is because Detroit was, and that is where Linehan was, too. So, they sure didn’t bring in “Mr. Running Game” to fix it. They literally hired the only OC who seemed to value the running game less than Garrett and the Cowboys.
But, again, we are talking about a team that went from well-below league-average to well-above league-average in the blink of an eye, with the same quarterback at the helm. Furthermore, they had an elite quarterback, wide receiver and tight end all together from 2011 through 2013 and still could never break the eight-win barrier with this dedication to the pass.
So they plotted a new path through the ground game. Zack Martin joined Travis Frederick and Tyron Smith, and the Cowboys ran through the league using a physical ground-and-pound style as other teams diminished their running games. They started to follow the Seattle template defensively and the 1990’s Cowboys template (which is also the Seattle modern-day run-first template) offensively. And it took off in the win column: Dallas has 48 regular-season wins since 2014 (fifth league-wide) and 32 since 2016 (first in the NFC).
You can argue that the league no longer runs the ball to the playoffs and to championships anymore, but Seattle and now Dallas seem to respectfully disagree. They are first and second in rush percentage over the last five years and are also fourth and fifth in NFL wins during that same span.
NFL 2014-2018, Wins-Loss and Rush %
By Bob Sturm 2h ago
The offseason comes in waves or a series of news cycles, many filled with contrived and manufactured plots, crashing against the shore one after the next. Most every one occupies some length of time, air space and conversation. But in the end, they run out of steam and head back out to sea, only to be overtaken by the next. I suppose it props up the sport in its down season, but there must be a better way.
Since the Cowboys lost in Los Angeles to end their 2018 campaign, we have fought through a series of these waves. They have carried us from the job security of Jason Garrett to the overhaul of the front office to the free agency of DeMarcus Lawrence to the price tag of Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to, now, a wave of discussions about Ezekiel Elliott’s future.
This wave, at least, had a reasonably obvious genesis with the recent demands of Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (drafted one year earlier), who suggested that without a new contract to his liking, he will not show up to camp ahead of the fifth and final season of his five-year rookie deal. Gordon saw the Le’Veon Bell situation play out in 2018, in which Bell was eventually able to get the “top of the market” contract he wanted in March after not playing a snap since 2017. (It can easily be debated whether he came out ahead, however.)
That led media folks like me to surmise that Ezekiel Elliott is certainly watching Gordon’s story with great interest, and a subsequent holdout seems inevitable. So the Cowboys obviously watch with great interest, too. And, yes, so are the legions of folks who have debated the wisdom of investing in a running back in a world when the league continues to tell us the ground game is living on borrowed time. Will the Cowboys marry Elliott at top dollar for years and years to come when the league is headed elsewhere? [HR][/HR]
Before we tackle that, though, a brief overview on the direction of the NFL.
We grew up in a “balanced offense” football world, with coaches telling us we needed a run for every pass. We needed to occupy the defense with a battering ram that will make them forget about the ambush over the top with one of those risky throws. Just look at what the span of 50 years has shown us:
Balance once meant 50/50. But, surely, in today’s shorthand, run-pass balance means a rate closer to 40/60. Given what we see at the college level – which has certainly started to help transform the professional ranks by the year – could we see it move to 35/65 or even 30/70 before long? Kliff Kingsbury has just been hired by the NFL and it wasn’t because he won everything there was to win at the college ranks. Rather, it was because his offense and offenses like it — which use the run only as a change-up pitch to set up more passing — are the newest direction for the NFL. Why? Because damage is done through the passing game, and no other variation of offense comes close when it comes to the yields of yardage, points and every single analytic that exists on this matter. You can and will still use the running game, but only in moderation. It is all to set up more opportunities through the air.
Add this to what we already know about running backs – no position takes more punishment and has a shorter career span – and you can quickly see why the NFL continues to suggest that teams will seldom invest heavily on running backs beyond the age of 25 or so with a second contract. When we were young, there was great debate about the “talisman” of an offense. Would you rather lose the running back or the quarterback for a month? Now that question is absurd in nearly every city. Sure, the running back might be dynamic, but if he is, it is because he is a danger in the passing game as well as the running game. No running back can carry an offense with a sub-par quarterback anymore.
The battering ram running back has gone the way of the post-up center in the NBA: Often employed, but seldom compensated like his mates. The game evolved, and the financials evolved with it. [HR][/HR]
Back to the Cowboys and their particular situation that should, and will, have many yelling “But Elliott does carry this offense!” at their screens. There is no denying Elliott has produced at a phenomenal rate since entering the league. He has led the NFL in rushing over those three years by a healthy margin. Since 2016, he has 4,048 yards, which is 600 yards beyond any other player despite missing eight games over that stretch. Re-read that last sentence, and let it soak in. His total yards from scrimmage also leads the NFL during that span by over 100 yards (Todd Gurley finished second in both categories, by the way) and he ranks fifth in total touchdowns (34) behind Gurley, Gordon, Antonio Brown and Davante Adams, each of whom score a large portion of their touchdowns through the air.
Only one team, Buffalo, has more yards on the ground during these three seasons. Only two, Green Bay and Cleveland, have more yards per carry – and both run quite infrequently.
During this span, Elliott also has the second-most receptions on the Cowboys and the fourth-most receiving yards. No Cowboy has scored even 15 touchdowns beside Zeke and Prescott (18).
Should you try to find the “MVP” of a Cowboys team that has won 67% of their games in three seasons, you would certainly know who is winning that award around here. He is a machine. He is durable. And he has been exactly what the Cowboys thought they were drafting when they disappointed many of us by using their best draft pick in 25 years to take a player at a position that the league believes should be an afterthought. You should take premium positions with premium picks, right? Well, the Cowboys disagreed on either the premise about the position or the premise about the player. Or both.
This chart is similar to the one above, but only includes Dallas, and just since Jason Garrett has been the head coach, from 2010 through 2018. I am often asked, “What is Jason Garrett’s offense?” To that, I respond with the questions of “What year is it?”, “What are the circumstances going in?”, and “Was he able to stick with his plan?” You see, unlike Bill Belichick, Andy Reid — or yes, even Kliff Kingsbury — there is no real predictable pattern of run-pass with this coach. We have seen two extremes that few coaches can match:
Just look at that. From 2011 through 2013, the Cowboys ran the ball 31st-most in the NFL. Then, on a dime, they shifted to first in the NFL from 2014 through 2017. Before you credit Scott Linehan for changing that philosophy around here, you should know that the only reason the Cowboys weren’t 32nd in rushing from 2011-2013 is because Detroit was, and that is where Linehan was, too. So, they sure didn’t bring in “Mr. Running Game” to fix it. They literally hired the only OC who seemed to value the running game less than Garrett and the Cowboys.
But, again, we are talking about a team that went from well-below league-average to well-above league-average in the blink of an eye, with the same quarterback at the helm. Furthermore, they had an elite quarterback, wide receiver and tight end all together from 2011 through 2013 and still could never break the eight-win barrier with this dedication to the pass.
So they plotted a new path through the ground game. Zack Martin joined Travis Frederick and Tyron Smith, and the Cowboys ran through the league using a physical ground-and-pound style as other teams diminished their running games. They started to follow the Seattle template defensively and the 1990’s Cowboys template (which is also the Seattle modern-day run-first template) offensively. And it took off in the win column: Dallas has 48 regular-season wins since 2014 (fifth league-wide) and 32 since 2016 (first in the NFC).
You can argue that the league no longer runs the ball to the playoffs and to championships anymore, but Seattle and now Dallas seem to respectfully disagree. They are first and second in rush percentage over the last five years and are also fourth and fifth in NFL wins during that same span.
NFL 2014-2018, Wins-Loss and Rush %