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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
The offseason comes in waves or a series of news cycles, many filled with contrived and manufactured plots, crashing against the shore one after the next. Most every one occupies some length of time, air space and conversation. But in the end, they run out of steam and head back out to sea, only to be overtaken by the next. I suppose it props up the sport in its down season, but there must be a better way.
Since the Cowboys lost in Los Angeles to end their 2018 campaign, we have fought through a series of these waves. They have carried us from the job security of Jason Garrett to the overhaul of the front office to the free agency of DeMarcus Lawrence to the price tag of Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to, now, a wave of discussions about Ezekiel Elliott’s future.
This wave, at least, had a reasonably obvious genesis with the recent demands of Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (drafted one year earlier), who suggested that without a new contract to his liking, he will not show up to camp ahead of the fifth and final season of his five-year rookie deal. Gordon saw the Le’Veon Bell situation play out in 2018, in which Bell was eventually able to get the “top of the market” contract he wanted in March after not playing a snap since 2017. (It can easily be debated whether he came out ahead, however.)
That led media folks like me to surmise that Ezekiel Elliott is certainly watching Gordon’s story with great interest, and a subsequent holdout seems inevitable. So the Cowboys obviously watch with great interest, too. And, yes, so are the legions of folks who have debated the wisdom of investing in a running back in a world when the league continues to tell us the ground game is living on borrowed time. Will the Cowboys marry Elliott at top dollar for years and years to come when the league is headed elsewhere? [HR][/HR]
Before we tackle that, though, a brief overview on the direction of the NFL.
We grew up in a “balanced offense” football world, with coaches telling us we needed a run for every pass. We needed to occupy the defense with a battering ram that will make them forget about the ambush over the top with one of those risky throws. Just look at what the span of 50 years has shown us:
Balance once meant 50/50. But, surely, in today’s shorthand, run-pass balance means a rate closer to 40/60. Given what we see at the college level – which has certainly started to help transform the professional ranks by the year – could we see it move to 35/65 or even 30/70 before long? Kliff Kingsbury has just been hired by the NFL and it wasn’t because he won everything there was to win at the college ranks. Rather, it was because his offense and offenses like it — which use the run only as a change-up pitch to set up more passing — are the newest direction for the NFL. Why? Because damage is done through the passing game, and no other variation of offense comes close when it comes to the yields of yardage, points and every single analytic that exists on this matter. You can and will still use the running game, but only in moderation. It is all to set up more opportunities through the air.
Add this to what we already know about running backs – no position takes more punishment and has a shorter career span – and you can quickly see why the NFL continues to suggest that teams will seldom invest heavily on running backs beyond the age of 25 or so with a second contract. When we were young, there was great debate about the “talisman” of an offense. Would you rather lose the running back or the quarterback for a month? Now that question is absurd in nearly every city. Sure, the running back might be dynamic, but if he is, it is because he is a danger in the passing game as well as the running game. No running back can carry an offense with a sub-par quarterback anymore.
The battering ram running back has gone the way of the post-up center in the NBA: Often employed, but seldom compensated like his mates. The game evolved, and the financials evolved with it. [HR][/HR]
Back to the Cowboys and their particular situation that should, and will, have many yelling “But Elliott does carry this offense!” at their screens. There is no denying Elliott has produced at a phenomenal rate since entering the league. He has led the NFL in rushing over those three years by a healthy margin. Since 2016, he has 4,048 yards, which is 600 yards beyond any other player despite missing eight games over that stretch. Re-read that last sentence, and let it soak in. His total yards from scrimmage also leads the NFL during that span by over 100 yards (Todd Gurley finished second in both categories, by the way) and he ranks fifth in total touchdowns (34) behind Gurley, Gordon, Antonio Brown and Davante Adams, each of whom score a large portion of their touchdowns through the air.
Only one team, Buffalo, has more yards on the ground during these three seasons. Only two, Green Bay and Cleveland, have more yards per carry – and both run quite infrequently.
During this span, Elliott also has the second-most receptions on the Cowboys and the fourth-most receiving yards. No Cowboy has scored even 15 touchdowns beside Zeke and Prescott (18).
Should you try to find the “MVP” of a Cowboys team that has won 67% of their games in three seasons, you would certainly know who is winning that award around here. He is a machine. He is durable. And he has been exactly what the Cowboys thought they were drafting when they disappointed many of us by using their best draft pick in 25 years to take a player at a position that the league believes should be an afterthought. You should take premium positions with premium picks, right? Well, the Cowboys disagreed on either the premise about the position or the premise about the player. Or both.
This chart is similar to the one above, but only includes Dallas, and just since Jason Garrett has been the head coach, from 2010 through 2018. I am often asked, “What is Jason Garrett’s offense?” To that, I respond with the questions of “What year is it?”, “What are the circumstances going in?”, and “Was he able to stick with his plan?” You see, unlike Bill Belichick, Andy Reid — or yes, even Kliff Kingsbury — there is no real predictable pattern of run-pass with this coach. We have seen two extremes that few coaches can match:
Just look at that. From 2011 through 2013, the Cowboys ran the ball 31st-most in the NFL. Then, on a dime, they shifted to first in the NFL from 2014 through 2017. Before you credit Scott Linehan for changing that philosophy around here, you should know that the only reason the Cowboys weren’t 32nd in rushing from 2011-2013 is because Detroit was, and that is where Linehan was, too. So, they sure didn’t bring in “Mr. Running Game” to fix it. They literally hired the only OC who seemed to value the running game less than Garrett and the Cowboys.
But, again, we are talking about a team that went from well-below league-average to well-above league-average in the blink of an eye, with the same quarterback at the helm. Furthermore, they had an elite quarterback, wide receiver and tight end all together from 2011 through 2013 and still could never break the eight-win barrier with this dedication to the pass.
So they plotted a new path through the ground game. Zack Martin joined Travis Frederick and Tyron Smith, and the Cowboys ran through the league using a physical ground-and-pound style as other teams diminished their running games. They started to follow the Seattle template defensively and the 1990’s Cowboys template (which is also the Seattle modern-day run-first template) offensively. And it took off in the win column: Dallas has 48 regular-season wins since 2014 (fifth league-wide) and 32 since 2016 (first in the NFC).
You can argue that the league no longer runs the ball to the playoffs and to championships anymore, but Seattle and now Dallas seem to respectfully disagree. They are first and second in rush percentage over the last five years and are also fourth and fifth in NFL wins during that same span.
NFL 2014-2018, Wins-Loss and Rush %
Rank Team W L Rush %
The above chart seems to indicate there are multiple ways to skin a cat. And before you suggest that Dallas has nothing to show for it in the playoffs, this is why browsing Seattle is worthwhile. The Seahakws have played the second-most playoff games during that span, trailing only New England. If the Cowboys’ philosophy is flawed, it isn’t because it can’t work with a dual-threat quarterback, strong defense and a physical run game featuring a star running back. (Of course, trying to find another Seattle might be like trying to find another Emmitt Smith. Seattle was a pretty rare confluence of events that had the right timing to fit them all under a tight salary cap before the quarterback’s contract plus the age and attrition of its defense took over. Chasing that blueprint might have been possible from 2016 through 2018, but certainly not beyond. Also, the cash outlay to Marshawn Lynch during that stretch was decent, but never substantial.)
Which is all well and good, but it could also be argued that the 2014 Cowboys were the best of this bunch, and that bunch did not have Ezekiel Elliott. In fact, aside from Frederick, Martin and Smith, the 2016-18 Cowboys feature almost an entirely new cast of characters (Jason Witten is his own study). That might tell us that the indispensable part of the unit is, in fact, the offensive line. Yes, you need above-average quarterback play, a stand-out running back and a coverage-dictating “X” receiver – but, evidently, those are somewhat interchangeable. Nobody is saying “replacement level” could do it, but it can be done with quality. The constant through the process has been the offensive line.
But this situation is not Tony Romo’s body breaking down, Dez Bryant’s decline or Jason Witten being attracted to television’s relaunch of his aging career. This features a running back nearing the end of his deal while demonstrating “best in the business” production at an age that suggests he can do this for years to come. Perhaps most importantly, he is still just 23 years old (for another week).
This is a franchise that lovingly looks back at its glory days, which just so happened to feature a running back who was the best in the league and never declined in his 20s. In fact, Emmitt Smith got his second “huge” contract after a holdout, lived up to it well enough to earn a third, even bigger contract and nearly lived out that entire deal, too.
Smith is the NFL’s all-time leading rusher and a real unicorn. When you look at his production, his durability and his dependable performances from 1990 through at least 2001, you see nothing but quality. There was hardly a serious injury, seldom a down season and never any regrets about the amount of money he was being paid to deliver a star performance. You can believe that, when the Cowboys looked at Elliott, they were seeing the next Emmitt. Too many touches and too many carries? Ridiculous. He can handle your workload, and you can’t wear him out.
Smith held out entering his fourth season, but also only had a four-year rookie contract. Elliott is entering year four of his five-year deal this month.
Of course, there is also the case of DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys running back who led the NFL in rushes, yards, touchdowns, touches and yards from scrimmage in 2014. It was his fourth season of a four-year rookie contract, too. He seemed to be the reason for the Cowboys’ rise from the worst-running team to the best. He was absurdly productive that season at a moment when the Cowboys would surely have to pay him to keep this band together. The trouble was that Dez Bryant had his own dominant season and also playing on an expiring contract. They would need the franchise tag for Bryant, so any idea to squeeze a bonus year out of Murray – who had not stayed very healthy in his first three seasons – was not going to fly. They would either have to extend him at the going rate or lose him to free agency.
The decision seemed pretty clear. The two parties did discuss “an offer,” but it was firmly low. Cynically, it became pretty clear that the Cowboys weren’t going to keep Murray; therefore, they had no reason to monitor his workload. Ride the horse as far as he can go in 2014, and then find a new back. Murray’s 449 touches in the regular season were the second-most over the last 15 seasons in the NFL. (Only Larry Johnson’s, 2006 season, in which he was clearly run into the ground, featured more.) If you add in the two playoff games that took him to 497 touches, you would find that no player in the history of the sport had ever carried and caught the ball more in one campaign than Murray did in 2014. It wasn’t a heavy workload. It was the heaviest ever.
These days, you don’t have to go far to find experts who will use terms like “negligence” when a team asks a running back to take a beating over 300 carries. The single-back approach seemed completely extinct a decade ago but has found a resurgence with Gurley, Elliott, Saquon Barkley and holdover Adrian Peterson. Still, only Elliott turned in a 300-carry season last year. There have only been six 300-carry seasons since 2014, and the Cowboys have half of them between Murray in 2014 and Elliott in 2016 and 2018. There is little doubt that Elliott would have hit that mark easily in 2017, as well, were it not for his suspension. This is consistent with the way they used Murray in 2014, but not very smart if you want Elliott to follow Emmitt Smith through a second and third contract into his early 30s.
But what if that’s not the plan at all? Are the Cowboys running Elliott into the ground because they have no plans to extend him? Was their plan all along – to draft him, use him early and often, get five years of hard usage from 2016 through 2020, tack on a bonus year with the franchise tag in 2021, then rinse and repeat when you need another version in 2022?
If it truly is their plan, they would be wise to never suggest anything of the sort publicly. They would be wise to say all the right things, compliment the player, keep the peace and hopefully keep the train going down the tracks. If a player knows he is purposely being used recklessly, with the intention of never paying him “the going rate” extension, no matter what, he will very likely try to protect his body with a holdout. And, honestly, how can anyone blame these players? If they are being treated as a disposable commodity in a huddle that has others who “will be taken care of” when the time comes, I imagine this is where the ill feelings start for Bell, Gordon or literally any running back of elite quality.
Of course, the flip side is you pay them a handsome extension as the Rams did last summer with Gurley (another 2015 draftee) and regret it within one season because his health already appears to be diminishing, both because he has the most dangerous job in sports and because a human body was surely not intended for that wear and tear long-term. You want to keep him happy, but you also don’t want a millstone deal before it even kicks in. The likely deal for Elliott would have to be the biggest running back deal in the business. That means north of Bell’s new four-year, $52.5 million deal in New York and Gurley’s fresh four-year, $57.5 million deal with $45 million practically guaranteed. Given it would not be written within 20 months of Gurley, I think anywhere from four years, $64 million to five years at $80 million is not as crazy as you might think. That will certainly make things pretty cozy with the cap, and it would also arrive as Elliott blows past 1,200 career carries and 1,400 career touches. That should give you pause unless he really is a unicorn.
Elliott has an insane number of touches. Had he played in all 48 games, his workload over his first three seasons would be second-highest in NFL history behind LaDainian Tomlinson. That’s right: Second-highest ever. As it stands, he is only 13th on the list below:
Most Touches, first three seasons, NFL History (Courtesy Pro Football Reference):
Rk Player From To Tm G Touch Rush YScm
(* = Hall of Fame)
That list provides quite a trip down memory lane. We can see plenty of players in Canton (the workload must not have bothered them too much). We can also see plenty of short-term flashes, bright lights who fizzled over time.
Zeke’s 25 touches per game are second-most on this list and at the very highest end of the “run him into the ground” grouping, but it’s not terribly convincing to argue that heavy workloads shorten careers when the group at the top of the chart contains Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith. On the other hand, nobody else on this list is far under the age of 40, so we can also surmise that the game has changed for the most part.
Maybe Emmitt Smith was a unicorn, but the evidence seems to suggest that maybe Elliott is, too. How much more convincing could his first three years be?
This is why the discussion about Elliott’s future is so complex. If the Cowboys do extend him and his body collapses under the workload shortly thereafter, we could hardly say we were shocked. There are too many examples of running backs “losing a step” by age 26 or 27 to forget. They are the large majority. But if you don’t extend him, you could watch him play elsewhere when he may very well still be great for years and years to come. His quality is high, and his age is low. His injury history is clean. He is exactly what Dallas thought he was.
Also, you better think about what happens to the running game without him. Pittsburgh barely missed a beat without Bell thanks to a massive year from James Connor, although they did miss the playoffs. The jury is still out on how Kansas City will cope without Kareem Hunt and how they’ll fully plug that hole. The Rams managed Gurley’s short-term absence through much of the stretch run last year with CJ Anderson and then probably drafted his replacement already in April. (Memphis’ Darrell Henderson is probably no Gurley, but he is going to open some eyes this season). And who can forget Dallas’ 2015 season, when the fanbase tried to talk itself into Joseph Randle not leaving “meat on the bone” before Darren McFadden rolled off more than 1,000 yards without the benefit of a competent quarterback for much of the year.
Good running teams generally seem to replace most of what the big money running back had going for substantially less cap space. Given the investment in the offensive line, you would like to think the Cowboys would ultimately manage if Zeke left. But, make no mistake, it would be pins and needles early if he ever left town.
You can believe that Elliott and his representatives are watching carefully as this Melvin Gordon situation plays out. A holdout might get that contract extension and possibly that relocation to a place that wants to make you financially whole. But that brings up the other complication from earlier in the piece. If the league sees diminishing value in the running game and the running back position, how big is the relocation market for Elliott, who does not have the advanced “wide receiver disguised as a running back” component that players like Bell, Gurley and Alvin Kamara bring to the table?
Surely, there will always be a market for a player at the top of his game at such a young age. The question that remains unresolved is what Jerry and Stephen Jones think about all of this. Many expect them to again “pay their guys,” but “many” never expected the Romo or Dez exits when they happened. Times seem to be changing the owner/general manager’s approach to matters.
Do they see Zeke as Emmitt Smith, or have 25 years and a hard salary cap reality changed their view? Do they see him more as a five-year, healthy version of DeMarco Murray?
We likely won’t know any of these answers in 2019. They can sit back and watch the Chargers situation play out, and both sides can ponder their own moment on the league stage coming soon in 2020.
You can bet it will determine the franchise’s path for years to come.
By Bob Sturm 2h ago
The offseason comes in waves or a series of news cycles, many filled with contrived and manufactured plots, crashing against the shore one after the next. Most every one occupies some length of time, air space and conversation. But in the end, they run out of steam and head back out to sea, only to be overtaken by the next. I suppose it props up the sport in its down season, but there must be a better way.
Since the Cowboys lost in Los Angeles to end their 2018 campaign, we have fought through a series of these waves. They have carried us from the job security of Jason Garrett to the overhaul of the front office to the free agency of DeMarcus Lawrence to the price tag of Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to, now, a wave of discussions about Ezekiel Elliott’s future.
This wave, at least, had a reasonably obvious genesis with the recent demands of Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (drafted one year earlier), who suggested that without a new contract to his liking, he will not show up to camp ahead of the fifth and final season of his five-year rookie deal. Gordon saw the Le’Veon Bell situation play out in 2018, in which Bell was eventually able to get the “top of the market” contract he wanted in March after not playing a snap since 2017. (It can easily be debated whether he came out ahead, however.)
That led media folks like me to surmise that Ezekiel Elliott is certainly watching Gordon’s story with great interest, and a subsequent holdout seems inevitable. So the Cowboys obviously watch with great interest, too. And, yes, so are the legions of folks who have debated the wisdom of investing in a running back in a world when the league continues to tell us the ground game is living on borrowed time. Will the Cowboys marry Elliott at top dollar for years and years to come when the league is headed elsewhere? [HR][/HR]
Before we tackle that, though, a brief overview on the direction of the NFL.
We grew up in a “balanced offense” football world, with coaches telling us we needed a run for every pass. We needed to occupy the defense with a battering ram that will make them forget about the ambush over the top with one of those risky throws. Just look at what the span of 50 years has shown us:
Balance once meant 50/50. But, surely, in today’s shorthand, run-pass balance means a rate closer to 40/60. Given what we see at the college level – which has certainly started to help transform the professional ranks by the year – could we see it move to 35/65 or even 30/70 before long? Kliff Kingsbury has just been hired by the NFL and it wasn’t because he won everything there was to win at the college ranks. Rather, it was because his offense and offenses like it — which use the run only as a change-up pitch to set up more passing — are the newest direction for the NFL. Why? Because damage is done through the passing game, and no other variation of offense comes close when it comes to the yields of yardage, points and every single analytic that exists on this matter. You can and will still use the running game, but only in moderation. It is all to set up more opportunities through the air.
Add this to what we already know about running backs – no position takes more punishment and has a shorter career span – and you can quickly see why the NFL continues to suggest that teams will seldom invest heavily on running backs beyond the age of 25 or so with a second contract. When we were young, there was great debate about the “talisman” of an offense. Would you rather lose the running back or the quarterback for a month? Now that question is absurd in nearly every city. Sure, the running back might be dynamic, but if he is, it is because he is a danger in the passing game as well as the running game. No running back can carry an offense with a sub-par quarterback anymore.
The battering ram running back has gone the way of the post-up center in the NBA: Often employed, but seldom compensated like his mates. The game evolved, and the financials evolved with it. [HR][/HR]
Back to the Cowboys and their particular situation that should, and will, have many yelling “But Elliott does carry this offense!” at their screens. There is no denying Elliott has produced at a phenomenal rate since entering the league. He has led the NFL in rushing over those three years by a healthy margin. Since 2016, he has 4,048 yards, which is 600 yards beyond any other player despite missing eight games over that stretch. Re-read that last sentence, and let it soak in. His total yards from scrimmage also leads the NFL during that span by over 100 yards (Todd Gurley finished second in both categories, by the way) and he ranks fifth in total touchdowns (34) behind Gurley, Gordon, Antonio Brown and Davante Adams, each of whom score a large portion of their touchdowns through the air.
Only one team, Buffalo, has more yards on the ground during these three seasons. Only two, Green Bay and Cleveland, have more yards per carry – and both run quite infrequently.
During this span, Elliott also has the second-most receptions on the Cowboys and the fourth-most receiving yards. No Cowboy has scored even 15 touchdowns beside Zeke and Prescott (18).
Should you try to find the “MVP” of a Cowboys team that has won 67% of their games in three seasons, you would certainly know who is winning that award around here. He is a machine. He is durable. And he has been exactly what the Cowboys thought they were drafting when they disappointed many of us by using their best draft pick in 25 years to take a player at a position that the league believes should be an afterthought. You should take premium positions with premium picks, right? Well, the Cowboys disagreed on either the premise about the position or the premise about the player. Or both.
This chart is similar to the one above, but only includes Dallas, and just since Jason Garrett has been the head coach, from 2010 through 2018. I am often asked, “What is Jason Garrett’s offense?” To that, I respond with the questions of “What year is it?”, “What are the circumstances going in?”, and “Was he able to stick with his plan?” You see, unlike Bill Belichick, Andy Reid — or yes, even Kliff Kingsbury — there is no real predictable pattern of run-pass with this coach. We have seen two extremes that few coaches can match:
Just look at that. From 2011 through 2013, the Cowboys ran the ball 31st-most in the NFL. Then, on a dime, they shifted to first in the NFL from 2014 through 2017. Before you credit Scott Linehan for changing that philosophy around here, you should know that the only reason the Cowboys weren’t 32nd in rushing from 2011-2013 is because Detroit was, and that is where Linehan was, too. So, they sure didn’t bring in “Mr. Running Game” to fix it. They literally hired the only OC who seemed to value the running game less than Garrett and the Cowboys.
But, again, we are talking about a team that went from well-below league-average to well-above league-average in the blink of an eye, with the same quarterback at the helm. Furthermore, they had an elite quarterback, wide receiver and tight end all together from 2011 through 2013 and still could never break the eight-win barrier with this dedication to the pass.
So they plotted a new path through the ground game. Zack Martin joined Travis Frederick and Tyron Smith, and the Cowboys ran through the league using a physical ground-and-pound style as other teams diminished their running games. They started to follow the Seattle template defensively and the 1990’s Cowboys template (which is also the Seattle modern-day run-first template) offensively. And it took off in the win column: Dallas has 48 regular-season wins since 2014 (fifth league-wide) and 32 since 2016 (first in the NFC).
You can argue that the league no longer runs the ball to the playoffs and to championships anymore, but Seattle and now Dallas seem to respectfully disagree. They are first and second in rush percentage over the last five years and are also fourth and fifth in NFL wins during that same span.
NFL 2014-2018, Wins-Loss and Rush %
| 1 | New England Patriots | 62 | 18 | 41.9 |
| 2t | Kansas City Chiefs | 54 | 26 | 42.1 |
| 2t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 54 | 25 | 38.4 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 51 | 28 | 46.6 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 48 | 32 | 46.5 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 47 | 32 | 42.3 |
| 7t | Carolina Panthers | 46 | 33 | 45.3 |
| 7t | Philadelphia Eagles | 46 | 34 | 41.1 |
| 9t | Green Bay Packers | 45 | 34 | 38.4 |
| 9t | New Orleans Saints | 45 | 35 | 40 |
| Totals | 1275 | 1275 | 41.4 |
The above chart seems to indicate there are multiple ways to skin a cat. And before you suggest that Dallas has nothing to show for it in the playoffs, this is why browsing Seattle is worthwhile. The Seahakws have played the second-most playoff games during that span, trailing only New England. If the Cowboys’ philosophy is flawed, it isn’t because it can’t work with a dual-threat quarterback, strong defense and a physical run game featuring a star running back. (Of course, trying to find another Seattle might be like trying to find another Emmitt Smith. Seattle was a pretty rare confluence of events that had the right timing to fit them all under a tight salary cap before the quarterback’s contract plus the age and attrition of its defense took over. Chasing that blueprint might have been possible from 2016 through 2018, but certainly not beyond. Also, the cash outlay to Marshawn Lynch during that stretch was decent, but never substantial.)
Which is all well and good, but it could also be argued that the 2014 Cowboys were the best of this bunch, and that bunch did not have Ezekiel Elliott. In fact, aside from Frederick, Martin and Smith, the 2016-18 Cowboys feature almost an entirely new cast of characters (Jason Witten is his own study). That might tell us that the indispensable part of the unit is, in fact, the offensive line. Yes, you need above-average quarterback play, a stand-out running back and a coverage-dictating “X” receiver – but, evidently, those are somewhat interchangeable. Nobody is saying “replacement level” could do it, but it can be done with quality. The constant through the process has been the offensive line.
But this situation is not Tony Romo’s body breaking down, Dez Bryant’s decline or Jason Witten being attracted to television’s relaunch of his aging career. This features a running back nearing the end of his deal while demonstrating “best in the business” production at an age that suggests he can do this for years to come. Perhaps most importantly, he is still just 23 years old (for another week).
This is a franchise that lovingly looks back at its glory days, which just so happened to feature a running back who was the best in the league and never declined in his 20s. In fact, Emmitt Smith got his second “huge” contract after a holdout, lived up to it well enough to earn a third, even bigger contract and nearly lived out that entire deal, too.
Smith is the NFL’s all-time leading rusher and a real unicorn. When you look at his production, his durability and his dependable performances from 1990 through at least 2001, you see nothing but quality. There was hardly a serious injury, seldom a down season and never any regrets about the amount of money he was being paid to deliver a star performance. You can believe that, when the Cowboys looked at Elliott, they were seeing the next Emmitt. Too many touches and too many carries? Ridiculous. He can handle your workload, and you can’t wear him out.
Smith held out entering his fourth season, but also only had a four-year rookie contract. Elliott is entering year four of his five-year deal this month.
Of course, there is also the case of DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys running back who led the NFL in rushes, yards, touchdowns, touches and yards from scrimmage in 2014. It was his fourth season of a four-year rookie contract, too. He seemed to be the reason for the Cowboys’ rise from the worst-running team to the best. He was absurdly productive that season at a moment when the Cowboys would surely have to pay him to keep this band together. The trouble was that Dez Bryant had his own dominant season and also playing on an expiring contract. They would need the franchise tag for Bryant, so any idea to squeeze a bonus year out of Murray – who had not stayed very healthy in his first three seasons – was not going to fly. They would either have to extend him at the going rate or lose him to free agency.
The decision seemed pretty clear. The two parties did discuss “an offer,” but it was firmly low. Cynically, it became pretty clear that the Cowboys weren’t going to keep Murray; therefore, they had no reason to monitor his workload. Ride the horse as far as he can go in 2014, and then find a new back. Murray’s 449 touches in the regular season were the second-most over the last 15 seasons in the NFL. (Only Larry Johnson’s, 2006 season, in which he was clearly run into the ground, featured more.) If you add in the two playoff games that took him to 497 touches, you would find that no player in the history of the sport had ever carried and caught the ball more in one campaign than Murray did in 2014. It wasn’t a heavy workload. It was the heaviest ever.
These days, you don’t have to go far to find experts who will use terms like “negligence” when a team asks a running back to take a beating over 300 carries. The single-back approach seemed completely extinct a decade ago but has found a resurgence with Gurley, Elliott, Saquon Barkley and holdover Adrian Peterson. Still, only Elliott turned in a 300-carry season last year. There have only been six 300-carry seasons since 2014, and the Cowboys have half of them between Murray in 2014 and Elliott in 2016 and 2018. There is little doubt that Elliott would have hit that mark easily in 2017, as well, were it not for his suspension. This is consistent with the way they used Murray in 2014, but not very smart if you want Elliott to follow Emmitt Smith through a second and third contract into his early 30s.
But what if that’s not the plan at all? Are the Cowboys running Elliott into the ground because they have no plans to extend him? Was their plan all along – to draft him, use him early and often, get five years of hard usage from 2016 through 2020, tack on a bonus year with the franchise tag in 2021, then rinse and repeat when you need another version in 2022?
If it truly is their plan, they would be wise to never suggest anything of the sort publicly. They would be wise to say all the right things, compliment the player, keep the peace and hopefully keep the train going down the tracks. If a player knows he is purposely being used recklessly, with the intention of never paying him “the going rate” extension, no matter what, he will very likely try to protect his body with a holdout. And, honestly, how can anyone blame these players? If they are being treated as a disposable commodity in a huddle that has others who “will be taken care of” when the time comes, I imagine this is where the ill feelings start for Bell, Gordon or literally any running back of elite quality.
Of course, the flip side is you pay them a handsome extension as the Rams did last summer with Gurley (another 2015 draftee) and regret it within one season because his health already appears to be diminishing, both because he has the most dangerous job in sports and because a human body was surely not intended for that wear and tear long-term. You want to keep him happy, but you also don’t want a millstone deal before it even kicks in. The likely deal for Elliott would have to be the biggest running back deal in the business. That means north of Bell’s new four-year, $52.5 million deal in New York and Gurley’s fresh four-year, $57.5 million deal with $45 million practically guaranteed. Given it would not be written within 20 months of Gurley, I think anywhere from four years, $64 million to five years at $80 million is not as crazy as you might think. That will certainly make things pretty cozy with the cap, and it would also arrive as Elliott blows past 1,200 career carries and 1,400 career touches. That should give you pause unless he really is a unicorn.
Elliott has an insane number of touches. Had he played in all 48 games, his workload over his first three seasons would be second-highest in NFL history behind LaDainian Tomlinson. That’s right: Second-highest ever. As it stands, he is only 13th on the list below:
Most Touches, first three seasons, NFL History (Courtesy Pro Football Reference):
| 1 | LaDainian Tomlinson* | 2001 | 2003 | SDG | 48 | 1262 | 4585 | 6145 |
| 2 | Eric Dickerson* | 1983 | 1985 | RAM | 46 | 1153 | 5147 | 5816 |
| 3 | Emmitt Smith* | 1990 | 1992 | DAL | 48 | 1111 | 4213 | 5034 |
| 4 | Eddie George | 1996 | 1998 | OTI | 48 | 1107 | 4061 | 4597 |
| 5 | Jamal Lewis | 2000 | 2003 | RAV | 48 | 1104 | 4757 | 5700 |
| 6 | Ottis Anderson | 1979 | 1981 | CRD | 48 | 1088 | 4333 | 5336 |
| 7 | Earl Campbell* | 1978 | 1980 | OTI | 46 | 1082 | 5138 | 5270 |
| 8 | Terrell Davis* | 1995 | 1997 | DEN | 45 | 1078 | 4405 | 5369 |
| 9 | Curtis Martin* | 1995 | 1997 | NWE | 45 | 1075 | 3799 | 4689 |
| 10 | Chris Johnson | 2008 | 2010 | OTI | 47 | 1062 | 4598 | 5606 |
| 11 | Edgerrin James | 1999 | 2001 | CLT | 38 | 1056 | 3924 | 5297 |
| 12 | Clinton Portis | 2002 | 2004 | TOT | 44 | 1017 | 4429 | 5327 |
| 13 | Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | 2018 | DAL | 40 | 1003 | 4048 | 5247 |
| 14 | Adrian Peterson | 2007 | 2009 | MIN | 46 | 998 | 4484 | 5313 |
| 15 | Matt Forte | 2008 | 2010 | CHI | 48 | 982 | 3236 | 4731 |
| 16 | Barry Sanders* | 1989 | 1991 | DET | 46 | 978 | 4322 | 5391 |
| 17 | Marshall Faulk* | 1994 | 1996 | CLT | 45 | 965 | 2947 | 4372 |
| 18 | William Andrews | 1979 | 1981 | ATL | 47 | 964 | 3632 | 5132 |
| 19 | Travis Henry | 2001 | 2003 | BUF | 44 | 962 | 3523 | 4169 |
| 20 | Ricky Williams | 1999 | 2001 | NOR | 38 | 946 | 3163 | 4221 |
| 21 | Willis McGahee | 2004 | 2006 | BUF | 46 | 936 | 3365 | 3868 |
| 22 | Karim Abdul-Jabbar | 1996 | 1998 | MIA | 47 | 933 | 2965 | 3470 |
| 23 | Domanick Williams | 2003 | 2005 | HTX | 40 | 924 | 3195 | 4471 |
| 24 | Walter Payton* | 1975 | 1977 | CHI | 41 | 921 | 3921 | 4552 |
| 25 | Todd Gurley | 2015 | 2017 | RAM | 44 | 914 | 3296 | 4599 |
| 26 | Alfred Morris | 2012 | 2014 | WAS | 48 | 913 | 3962 | 4272 |
| 27 | Herschel Walker | 1986 | 1988 | DAL | 44 | 910 | 3142 | 5199 |
| 28 | Thurman Thomas* | 1988 | 1990 | BUF | 47 | 903 | 3422 | 4831 |
| 29 | Billy Sims | 1980 | 1982 | DET | 39 | 894 | 3379 | 4793 |
| 30 | Steven Jackson | 2004 | 2006 | RAM | 45 | 886 | 3247 | 4562 |
(* = Hall of Fame)
That list provides quite a trip down memory lane. We can see plenty of players in Canton (the workload must not have bothered them too much). We can also see plenty of short-term flashes, bright lights who fizzled over time.
Zeke’s 25 touches per game are second-most on this list and at the very highest end of the “run him into the ground” grouping, but it’s not terribly convincing to argue that heavy workloads shorten careers when the group at the top of the chart contains Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith. On the other hand, nobody else on this list is far under the age of 40, so we can also surmise that the game has changed for the most part.
Maybe Emmitt Smith was a unicorn, but the evidence seems to suggest that maybe Elliott is, too. How much more convincing could his first three years be?
This is why the discussion about Elliott’s future is so complex. If the Cowboys do extend him and his body collapses under the workload shortly thereafter, we could hardly say we were shocked. There are too many examples of running backs “losing a step” by age 26 or 27 to forget. They are the large majority. But if you don’t extend him, you could watch him play elsewhere when he may very well still be great for years and years to come. His quality is high, and his age is low. His injury history is clean. He is exactly what Dallas thought he was.
Also, you better think about what happens to the running game without him. Pittsburgh barely missed a beat without Bell thanks to a massive year from James Connor, although they did miss the playoffs. The jury is still out on how Kansas City will cope without Kareem Hunt and how they’ll fully plug that hole. The Rams managed Gurley’s short-term absence through much of the stretch run last year with CJ Anderson and then probably drafted his replacement already in April. (Memphis’ Darrell Henderson is probably no Gurley, but he is going to open some eyes this season). And who can forget Dallas’ 2015 season, when the fanbase tried to talk itself into Joseph Randle not leaving “meat on the bone” before Darren McFadden rolled off more than 1,000 yards without the benefit of a competent quarterback for much of the year.
Good running teams generally seem to replace most of what the big money running back had going for substantially less cap space. Given the investment in the offensive line, you would like to think the Cowboys would ultimately manage if Zeke left. But, make no mistake, it would be pins and needles early if he ever left town.
You can believe that Elliott and his representatives are watching carefully as this Melvin Gordon situation plays out. A holdout might get that contract extension and possibly that relocation to a place that wants to make you financially whole. But that brings up the other complication from earlier in the piece. If the league sees diminishing value in the running game and the running back position, how big is the relocation market for Elliott, who does not have the advanced “wide receiver disguised as a running back” component that players like Bell, Gurley and Alvin Kamara bring to the table?
Surely, there will always be a market for a player at the top of his game at such a young age. The question that remains unresolved is what Jerry and Stephen Jones think about all of this. Many expect them to again “pay their guys,” but “many” never expected the Romo or Dez exits when they happened. Times seem to be changing the owner/general manager’s approach to matters.
Do they see Zeke as Emmitt Smith, or have 25 years and a hard salary cap reality changed their view? Do they see him more as a five-year, healthy version of DeMarco Murray?
We likely won’t know any of these answers in 2019. They can sit back and watch the Chargers situation play out, and both sides can ponder their own moment on the league stage coming soon in 2020.
You can bet it will determine the franchise’s path for years to come.
