This is today from the site that the other post came from:
"Matt wrote about the meteorology behind this historic flooding over on The Eyewall this weekend. The basic story is that the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled over Central Texas, setting the stage for heavy rainfall not dissimilar to what the Houston region experienced during Hurricane Harvey nearly eight years ago. The rains were not as long-lasting, as Central Texas is further from the Gulf and an efficient source of moisture. But the rain was extreme, and rapidly led to catastrophic flooding.
Overall we don’t believe the recent cuts to the National Weather Service by the Trump Administration—which are concerning for multiple reasons, and will negatively impact forecasting—played a significant role in warnings issued for this storm. The relevant offices of the weather service were reasonably well staffed, and they issued warnings in a timely manner. Yes, the overall rain totals in parts of Kerr County over-performed expectations, but flash flood warnings were in place for the region.
I think a major part of the problem is that these floods developed after midnight on a major holiday. Additionally, the most affected areas were largely remote, with some places lacking even a cell phone signal. So although there were flash flood warnings in place when the waters began rising, they were not seen or, in some cases heeded. That is not to say the forecasts were perfect. In an ideal world residents in these areas would have had days of warnings, rather than hours, but this is not always the case in extreme weather. For example, Harvey’s flooding was relatively well forecast in Houston before landfall, but the derecho in May 2024 was not well predicted. Meteorologists are not perfect, and neither are our forecasts.
A couple of readers have said they were disappointed that Space City Weather did not sound the warning on these storms. I hear you, but I would like to say a couple of things. Firstly, Kerrville and areas surrounding it lie very far outside of our forecast area. They are 250 miles from Houston, and our focus is this metro area and surrounding counties. We are intensely local. If this were an Austin- or San Antonio-based site, it would be a completely different story.
Second, when I looked at all of this on Thursday morning, the forecast for heavy rainfall did not look overly extreme in Central Texas. Some bad rains, certainly. But not what ultimately transpired. If we had really known what was was about to happen early on the Fourth of July, if we could have saved lives amid this awful natural disaster, we would have shouted it from the rooftops, even if it was far away in Texas. The reality is we did not. I dearly wish it were otherwise."
It's all just so awful.
