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McShay: Final 2014 Mock Draft
QBs among the surprises in final first-round projection of 2014
It took two weeks longer than usual this year, but draft day has finally arrived, which means it's time for our final 2014 NFL mock draft.
Important note: We aren't attempting to project trades in this mock, but have noted in the write-ups a few spots where a trade is a particularly strong possibility. And remember, this isn't an exact representation of our own draft board (for that, check out our Top 300 prospects list), but instead a look at the players we expect will be selected at each slot.
Here is our projection for every first-round pick, with analysis for each.
1Jadeveon Clowney Houston Texans (2-14)COLLEGE: South CarolinaClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE
Analysis: Clowney has been the No. 1 player on my board throughout the entire draft process, and I think he's the likely choice for the Texans at No. 1 overall on Thursday night. You can't rule out a trade here, but unless they get a great deal to move down (and possibly target UCF QB Blake Bortles), I think they'll stay put and take Clowney. He may not be an ideal scheme fit in a 3-4 defense, but he is athletic enough to drop in coverage when asked, and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel can find a way to make the most of Clowney's rare physical gifts and pass-rushing ability.
PLAYER CARD
2Greg Robinson St. Louis Rams (7-9)COLLEGE: AuburnHT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT
Analysis: I'm not buying the Rams' supposed interest in Johnny Manziel at the No. 2 spot; I think that they might just be looking for a team to swap picks so they can move down a few spots and still get the tackle they need. But if they stay put I think Robinson will be the choice here. Sammy Watkins would be tempting, given their need for a true No. 1 receiver, but they have to upgrade their offensive line and Robinson is the top-ranked tackle on my board. He is dominant at the point of attack and has the natural athleticism to develop into a very good pass protector.
PLAYER CARD
3Khalil Mack Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)COLLEGE: BuffaloHT: 6-2WT: 251POS: OLB
Analysis: It's going to be a tough call for the Jaguars in this scenario, deciding between Mack and Clemson WR Sammy Watkins, who would fill a major need as a go-to weapon in the passing game. But I'm projecting the Jags will go with Mack, who would provide them with an every-down impact player on defense. He should be a good fit in their "Leo" hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker role given his pass-rushing ability, but even if that doesn't work out, he has the versatility to move to linebacker and still be a difference-maker for this team.
PLAYER CARD
4Sammy Watkins Cleveland Browns (4-12)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: I had slotted Johnny Manziel here in Monday's mock draft update, but it now seems more likely that the Browns will pass on a quarterback at No. 4 and instead take the fourth of this class' four elite players. In this scenario, that's Watkins, who would provide Cleveland with a dynamic playmaker opposite Josh Gordon and potential insurance in the event that Gordon is injured or deals with any more off-field issues. The Browns can look to take a QB later in the first round or in the second.
PLAYER CARD
5Mike Evans Oakland Raiders (4-12)COLLEGE: Texas A&MClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 231POS: WR
Analysis: If the top four picks go as predicted above, the Raiders' choice will come down to Evans or one of the top two remaining offensive tackles, Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan, as the Oakland offensive line is unsettled. But the Raiders haven't had a playmaker at wide receiver in a long time, and Evans is a guy who can haul in a high percentage of 50-50 balls with his size, competitiveness and catch radius.
PLAYER CARD
6Jake Matthews Atlanta Falcons (4-12)COLLEGE: Texas A&MHT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT
Analysis: If the Falcons stay put at No. 6 and the top pass-rushers are off the board as expected, a tackle is the likely choice here. The Falcons allowed QB Matt Ryan to be sacked 44 times last season, by far the most in his NFL career, and they need someone to come in and start at tackle opposite Sam Baker. There has been some buzz that Taylor Lewan could be their preferred option, but Jake Matthews is the more logical choice given his versatility to play either right or left tackle and overall reliability. He's the higher-ranked tackle on our board.
PLAYER CARD
7Aaron Donald Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)COLLEGE: PittsburghHT: 6-0WT: 285POS: DT
Analysis: Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans is a definite possibility here if he's still on the board, as he's a big-play threat and the Bucs need help at WR opposite Vincent Jackson. But Donald is one of the top players in this class (No. 6 in my rankings) and a perfect fit as the 3-technique defensive tackle in the Tampa-2 defense run by head coach Lovie Smith and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He has the potential to be a very disruptive player in the NFL with his first-step quickness and finishing ability.
PLAYER CARD
8Justin Gilbert Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)COLLEGE: Oklahoma StateClass: SrHT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB
Analysis: Blake Bortles could be the pick here, and maybe should be if you ask me, but the Vikings are desperate to add help on defense and Gilbert would fill a need at cornerback. It would not surprise me if the Vikings decide to trade down here and get their corner a few spots later, but in this scenario we'll have them stay put and take Gilbert. He isn't very physical and shows some tightness in coverage, but he has elite straight-line speed and is a big-time playmaker.
PLAYER CARD
9Taylor Lewan Buffalo Bills (6-10)COLLEGE: MichiganHT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT
Analysis: Right tackle is arguably the Bills' biggest need entering the draft, and in this scenario they'd be getting a prospect in Lewan who spent his entire Michigan career playing left tackle. So the Bills would have to be comfortable with his ability to convert to the right side, or with moving over incumbent left tackle Cordy Glenn -- but if they are, Lewan is a great value at this spot and would help stabilize the offensive line.
PLAYER CARD
10Darqueze Dennard Detroit Lions (7-9)COLLEGE: Michigan StateClass: SrHT: 5-10WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: It wouldn't stun me if Dennard drops a little bit if he gets past Detroit, but he'd make sense for the Lions given their need at the cornerback position. He is very physical in run support and looked like a true shutdown corner at various points during the 2013 season.
PLAYER CARD
11Blake Bortles Tennessee Titans (7-9)COLLEGE: UCFClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB
Analysis: The teams that we've most recently heard associated with Bortles are the Titans and the Cardinals, and we're going to go ahead and slot him to Tennessee here. For all the Johnny Manziel talk recently, it seems as though Bortles is the hot quarterback prospect in this draft right now, based on what we've heard from people in the league. If Bortles isn't the pick here, it's likely the Titans would take a cornerback.
PLAYER CARD
12Eric Ebron New York Giants (7-9)COLLEGE: North CarolinaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE
Analysis: There are several potential landing spots for Ebron, but the Giants are a logical fit for him given that tight end might be their top need heading into the draft. They could really use a go-to target at the position for quarterback Eli Manning, and Ebron has big-play ability as a guy who can stretch the seam of the defense with his speed and also make plays after the catch.
PLAYER CARD
13Zack Martin St. Louis Rams (7-9)COLLEGE: Notre DameHT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT
Analysis: This might seem far-fetched given that in this scenario the Rams have already selected Auburn offensive tackle Greg Robinson at No. 2 overall, but Martin is a really good value pick, and by taking both they'd be solidifying their offensive line for years to come with the most physically dominant O-lineman in this draft class (Robinson) and most NFL-ready lineman (Martin). They could potentially play either one at guard as a rookie with the other playing tackle.
PLAYER CARD
14Calvin Pryor Chicago Bears (8-8)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S
Analysis: If we based this pick on our board, then the choice would be Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. But different teams have different views on players, and based on what we've heard, Pryor is the Bears' preference. He doesn't have the same range as Clinton-Dix, but he's a tone-setter with his physical presence. The Bears would love to get Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald if he drops this far, but he's off the board in this scenario. It wouldn't surprise us if Chicago traded down and targeted Pryor a few picks later.
PLAYER CARD
15Kyle Fuller Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)COLLEGE: Virginia TechClass: SrHT: 5-11WT: 190POS: CB
Analysis: Cornerback is one of the Steelers' top needs, as they really need to get younger in the secondary. Fuller is a good fit because he is willing and capable in run support in addition to having exceptional ball skills and very good instincts. He isn't a reach here, either, as he's the No. 15-ranked player on our board.
PLAYER CARD
16Johnny Manziel Dallas Cowboys (8-8)COLLEGE: Texas A&MClass: SophHT: 5-11WT: 207POS: QB
Analysis: I said on TV this week that if the Cowboys draft Manziel it will break Twitter, and that's what happens in this scenario. We've had more than one person in the league tell us that Manziel is believed to be the No. 1 player on the Cowboys' board, and it wouldn't surprise us if they took him here is he's still available. If Manziel is gone by this point, or the Cowboys choose not to take him, linebackers Anthony Barr, C.J. Mosley and Ryan Shazier are all possibilities with the No. 16 pick.
PLAYER CARD
17C.J. Mosley Baltimore Ravens (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 234POS: ILB
Analysis: If North Carolina tight end Eric Ebron falls to this point, I think he'll be the Ravens' pick at No. 17. The Ravens could also be a candidate to trade down (with the 49ers being a possible trade partner -- more on that later), especially if both Ebron and Mosley are off the board by the time they go on the clock. But Mosley is a logical fit here, as Baltimore could use an upgrade at inside linebacker (even if it isn't the most pressing need) and he's a good value at this point in the first round.
PLAYER CARD
18Brandin Cooks New York Jets (8-8)COLLEGE: Oregon StateClass: JrHT: 5-9WT: 189POS: WR
Analysis: It'll be interesting to see what happens if the Jets are presented with their choice of both Cooks and LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr., as I really don't know which player they would prefer. But I'll go with Cooks here, in part because I think Beckham could be off the board by this point with the 49ers trading up to get him (explained in more detail in the San Francisco write-up at No. 30) and in part because Cooks would provide the vertical threat the Jets' offense is lacking.
PLAYER CARD
19Cyrus Kouandjio Miami Dolphins (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaHT: 6-6WT: 322POS: OT
Analysis: I'm not sold on this one. Personally, I would take Morgan Moses here, with the caveat that he struggled at right tackle in college before moving to left tackle his senior season, and free agent Branden Albert is slotted for the left tackle spot in Miami. But I've heard both Kouandjio and Tennessee OT Ja'Wuan James associated with the Dolphins, and Kouandjio seems like the likelier fit. It would not be at all surprising if (A) Miami traded down several slots and then drafted an offensive tackle or (B) Miami selected linebackers Ryan Shazier or C.J. Mosley here.
PLAYER CARD
20Ryan Shazier Arizona Cardinals (10-6)COLLEGE: Ohio StateHT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB
Analysis: If Blake Bortles slides to this spot, I think he'd be the pick. There's even a chance the Cardinals could move up to get him if he starts sliding into the teens, although having just six picks in this draft limits their options a little bit. They need a long-term replacement for Carson Palmer (who turns 35 this season) at QB, and I've heard they really like Bortles. But in this scenario he is off the board (to the Titans at No. 11), and Shazier is a good value who could make an impact as part of Arizona's linebacker corps. I'm not a big Anthony Barr fan, but he'd also make some sense here in the Cardinals' 3-4 defense.
PLAYER CARD
21Marqise Lee Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 192POS: WR
Analysis: I would never put Lee here, as I think safety is a much bigger need (and the No. 1 safety on our board, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, is still available in this scenario) and there are probably four or five other positions that are bigger need areas for them than wide receiver. But I've heard that Lee won't get past the No. 21 pick, and he does make some sense in that they could get QB Aaron Rodgers another weapon -- and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb's contracts are both up after this season. Clinton-Dix is probably the more logical choice, but we'll roll the dice on Lee based on what we're hearing.
PLAYER CARD
22Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S
Analysis: Clinton-Dix falls further in this scenario than we might have expected (he's No. 13 on our board), but he'd be both a good value and a good fit for the Eagles were he to drop this far. He'd bring very good instincts, ball skills and range to the Philadelphia defense. USC WR Marqise Lee is also a possibility here if he gets to this spot.
PLAYER CARD
23Xavier Su'a-Filo Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)COLLEGE: UCLAClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 307POS: OG
Analysis: The Chiefs are another team that could look at USC WR Marqise Lee if he drops to this point, and Vanderbilt's Jordan Matthews is another possibility at the wide receiver position. They are also a strong candidate to trade down and try to get back a pick to make up for the second-rounder they dealt to the 49ers as part of the Alex Smith trade. But in this scenario, they fill a need by taking the No. 1 guard in this draft in Su'a-Filo.
PLAYER CARD
24Bradley Roby Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)COLLEGE: Ohio StateClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 194POS: CB
Analysis: Roby brings some character concerns with him, but the Bengals have shown a willingness to roll the dice with similar cases, and he fills a need at corner. In addition to becoming more mature off the field, Roby needs to improve his on-field discipline. But he has the natural physical tools to develop into a very good NFL cornerback. Something else to monitor: We've heard a lot of buzz about the possibility that the Bengals could trade up.
PLAYER CARD
25Anthony Barr San Diego Chargers (9-7)COLLEGE: UCLAClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 255POS: OLB
Analysis: Barr is the No. 25 player on my board, so the value matches up here, and the Chargers have a specific need at 3-4 outside linebacker and a general need to produce more game-changing plays on defense (just 17 takeaways and 35 sacks last season, both ranking in the bottom half of the league). Barr's upside as a speed rusher coming off the edge could be too tempting to pass up.
PLAYER CARD
26Teddy Bridgewater Cleveland Browns (4-12)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB
Analysis: The Browns passed on a quarterback at No. 4 in this scenario -- instead taking Clemson WR Sammy Watkins -- but they get one here. We've heard that the Browns like Bridgewater more than some other teams do (and more than the Browns like Fresno State's Derek Carr), and this is a logical spot in the first round for him to come off the board.
PLAYER CARD
27Jason Verrett New Orleans Saints (11-5)COLLEGE: TCUClass: SrHT: 5-9WT: 189POS: CB
Analysis: The Saints need a corner to challenge Champ Bailey for the starting job opposite Keenan Lewis, and Verrett represents solid value at this spot (No. 23 on our board). He makes up for his lack of ideal size by playing big (he isn't afraid to help in run support or deliver a big hit) and with his elite movement skills and top-end speed. Wide receiver is also a possibility here.
PLAYER CARD
28Morgan MosesCarolina Panthers (12-4)COLLEGE: VirginiaHT: 6-6WT: 314POS: OT
Analysis: Moses could be the Panthers' replacement at left tackle for the retired Jordan Gross. He ranks higher than this on our board, but from what we've heard, he could slide to the back end of the first round. Wide receiver is another big need area for Carolina, so that can't be ruled out at this spot, either.
PLAYER CARD
29Stephon Tuitt New England Patriots (12-4)COLLEGE: Notre DameHT: 6-5WT: 304POS: DE
Analysis: Tuitt is a top-15 player in this class based purely on talent; the issue with him has been proving he can play with consistent effort. If the Patriots are confident they can get the most out of him, he could be a steal here, given his versatility, physical tools and the Pats' need along the defensive line.
PLAYER CARD
30Odell Beckham Jr. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)COLLEGE: LSUClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR
Analysis: Admittedly, we're bending the rules a little bit with this one. We don't consider it likely that Beckham will drop all the way to No. 30 (he's the No. 10 player on my board), but we do think he's a match for the Niners and that they could make a big move up the board to get him. However, since we're playing by the rules of not projecting trades, we decided to slot him here so as not to throw off the rest of the picks. It's an imperfect solution, but hopefully our main point is clear: We think the Niners will trade up into the middle of the first round to take Beckham as the speed receiver they really need.
PLAYER CARD
31Stan Jean-Baptiste Denver Broncos (13-3)COLLEGE: NebraskaHT: 6-2WT: 218POS: CB
Analysis: There has been some buzz in the last couple of days about Jean-Baptiste going in the first round (although some people in the league I've talked to have dismissed it), and this is a logical match: The Broncos need a corner to compete for the starting job opposite Aqib Talib, and he's the top-ranked cornerback remaining in this scenario. His Richard Sherman-like measureables (6-foot-3, 218 pounds, 32 1/4-inch arms) could pump up his value a little bit.
PLAYER CARD
32Jeremiah Attaochu Seattle Seahawks (13-3)COLLEGE: Georgia TechHT: 6-3WT: 252POS: OLB
Analysis: It's tough to project these last few picks in the first round, especially considering some teams could be looking to trade down into the bottom of the first round to take a quarterback, but we'll go with Attaochu in this scenario. The Seahawks require a lot of depth in their defensive front seven, and Attaochu brings good pass-rushing ability to the table.
QBs among the surprises in final first-round projection of 2014
It took two weeks longer than usual this year, but draft day has finally arrived, which means it's time for our final 2014 NFL mock draft.
Important note: We aren't attempting to project trades in this mock, but have noted in the write-ups a few spots where a trade is a particularly strong possibility. And remember, this isn't an exact representation of our own draft board (for that, check out our Top 300 prospects list), but instead a look at the players we expect will be selected at each slot.
Here is our projection for every first-round pick, with analysis for each.
1Jadeveon Clowney Houston Texans (2-14)COLLEGE: South CarolinaClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 266POS: DE
Analysis: Clowney has been the No. 1 player on my board throughout the entire draft process, and I think he's the likely choice for the Texans at No. 1 overall on Thursday night. You can't rule out a trade here, but unless they get a great deal to move down (and possibly target UCF QB Blake Bortles), I think they'll stay put and take Clowney. He may not be an ideal scheme fit in a 3-4 defense, but he is athletic enough to drop in coverage when asked, and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel can find a way to make the most of Clowney's rare physical gifts and pass-rushing ability.
PLAYER CARD
2Greg Robinson St. Louis Rams (7-9)COLLEGE: AuburnHT: 6-5WT: 332POS: OT
Analysis: I'm not buying the Rams' supposed interest in Johnny Manziel at the No. 2 spot; I think that they might just be looking for a team to swap picks so they can move down a few spots and still get the tackle they need. But if they stay put I think Robinson will be the choice here. Sammy Watkins would be tempting, given their need for a true No. 1 receiver, but they have to upgrade their offensive line and Robinson is the top-ranked tackle on my board. He is dominant at the point of attack and has the natural athleticism to develop into a very good pass protector.
PLAYER CARD
3Khalil Mack Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)COLLEGE: BuffaloHT: 6-2WT: 251POS: OLB
Analysis: It's going to be a tough call for the Jaguars in this scenario, deciding between Mack and Clemson WR Sammy Watkins, who would fill a major need as a go-to weapon in the passing game. But I'm projecting the Jags will go with Mack, who would provide them with an every-down impact player on defense. He should be a good fit in their "Leo" hybrid defensive end/outside linebacker role given his pass-rushing ability, but even if that doesn't work out, he has the versatility to move to linebacker and still be a difference-maker for this team.
PLAYER CARD
4Sammy Watkins Cleveland Browns (4-12)COLLEGE: ClemsonClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: I had slotted Johnny Manziel here in Monday's mock draft update, but it now seems more likely that the Browns will pass on a quarterback at No. 4 and instead take the fourth of this class' four elite players. In this scenario, that's Watkins, who would provide Cleveland with a dynamic playmaker opposite Josh Gordon and potential insurance in the event that Gordon is injured or deals with any more off-field issues. The Browns can look to take a QB later in the first round or in the second.
PLAYER CARD
5Mike Evans Oakland Raiders (4-12)COLLEGE: Texas A&MClass: SophHT: 6-4WT: 231POS: WR
Analysis: If the top four picks go as predicted above, the Raiders' choice will come down to Evans or one of the top two remaining offensive tackles, Jake Matthews and Taylor Lewan, as the Oakland offensive line is unsettled. But the Raiders haven't had a playmaker at wide receiver in a long time, and Evans is a guy who can haul in a high percentage of 50-50 balls with his size, competitiveness and catch radius.
PLAYER CARD
6Jake Matthews Atlanta Falcons (4-12)COLLEGE: Texas A&MHT: 6-5WT: 308POS: OT
Analysis: If the Falcons stay put at No. 6 and the top pass-rushers are off the board as expected, a tackle is the likely choice here. The Falcons allowed QB Matt Ryan to be sacked 44 times last season, by far the most in his NFL career, and they need someone to come in and start at tackle opposite Sam Baker. There has been some buzz that Taylor Lewan could be their preferred option, but Jake Matthews is the more logical choice given his versatility to play either right or left tackle and overall reliability. He's the higher-ranked tackle on our board.
PLAYER CARD
7Aaron Donald Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)COLLEGE: PittsburghHT: 6-0WT: 285POS: DT
Analysis: Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans is a definite possibility here if he's still on the board, as he's a big-play threat and the Bucs need help at WR opposite Vincent Jackson. But Donald is one of the top players in this class (No. 6 in my rankings) and a perfect fit as the 3-technique defensive tackle in the Tampa-2 defense run by head coach Lovie Smith and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. He has the potential to be a very disruptive player in the NFL with his first-step quickness and finishing ability.
PLAYER CARD
8Justin Gilbert Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)COLLEGE: Oklahoma StateClass: SrHT: 6-0WT: 202POS: CB
Analysis: Blake Bortles could be the pick here, and maybe should be if you ask me, but the Vikings are desperate to add help on defense and Gilbert would fill a need at cornerback. It would not surprise me if the Vikings decide to trade down here and get their corner a few spots later, but in this scenario we'll have them stay put and take Gilbert. He isn't very physical and shows some tightness in coverage, but he has elite straight-line speed and is a big-time playmaker.
PLAYER CARD
9Taylor Lewan Buffalo Bills (6-10)COLLEGE: MichiganHT: 6-7WT: 309POS: OT
Analysis: Right tackle is arguably the Bills' biggest need entering the draft, and in this scenario they'd be getting a prospect in Lewan who spent his entire Michigan career playing left tackle. So the Bills would have to be comfortable with his ability to convert to the right side, or with moving over incumbent left tackle Cordy Glenn -- but if they are, Lewan is a great value at this spot and would help stabilize the offensive line.
PLAYER CARD
10Darqueze Dennard Detroit Lions (7-9)COLLEGE: Michigan StateClass: SrHT: 5-10WT: 199POS: CB
Analysis: It wouldn't stun me if Dennard drops a little bit if he gets past Detroit, but he'd make sense for the Lions given their need at the cornerback position. He is very physical in run support and looked like a true shutdown corner at various points during the 2013 season.
PLAYER CARD
11Blake Bortles Tennessee Titans (7-9)COLLEGE: UCFClass: JrHT: 6-5WT: 232POS: QB
Analysis: The teams that we've most recently heard associated with Bortles are the Titans and the Cardinals, and we're going to go ahead and slot him to Tennessee here. For all the Johnny Manziel talk recently, it seems as though Bortles is the hot quarterback prospect in this draft right now, based on what we've heard from people in the league. If Bortles isn't the pick here, it's likely the Titans would take a cornerback.
PLAYER CARD
12Eric Ebron New York Giants (7-9)COLLEGE: North CarolinaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 250POS: TE
Analysis: There are several potential landing spots for Ebron, but the Giants are a logical fit for him given that tight end might be their top need heading into the draft. They could really use a go-to target at the position for quarterback Eli Manning, and Ebron has big-play ability as a guy who can stretch the seam of the defense with his speed and also make plays after the catch.
PLAYER CARD
13Zack Martin St. Louis Rams (7-9)COLLEGE: Notre DameHT: 6-4WT: 308POS: OT
Analysis: This might seem far-fetched given that in this scenario the Rams have already selected Auburn offensive tackle Greg Robinson at No. 2 overall, but Martin is a really good value pick, and by taking both they'd be solidifying their offensive line for years to come with the most physically dominant O-lineman in this draft class (Robinson) and most NFL-ready lineman (Martin). They could potentially play either one at guard as a rookie with the other playing tackle.
PLAYER CARD
14Calvin Pryor Chicago Bears (8-8)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 207POS: S
Analysis: If we based this pick on our board, then the choice would be Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. But different teams have different views on players, and based on what we've heard, Pryor is the Bears' preference. He doesn't have the same range as Clinton-Dix, but he's a tone-setter with his physical presence. The Bears would love to get Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald if he drops this far, but he's off the board in this scenario. It wouldn't surprise us if Chicago traded down and targeted Pryor a few picks later.
PLAYER CARD
15Kyle Fuller Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)COLLEGE: Virginia TechClass: SrHT: 5-11WT: 190POS: CB
Analysis: Cornerback is one of the Steelers' top needs, as they really need to get younger in the secondary. Fuller is a good fit because he is willing and capable in run support in addition to having exceptional ball skills and very good instincts. He isn't a reach here, either, as he's the No. 15-ranked player on our board.
PLAYER CARD
16Johnny Manziel Dallas Cowboys (8-8)COLLEGE: Texas A&MClass: SophHT: 5-11WT: 207POS: QB
Analysis: I said on TV this week that if the Cowboys draft Manziel it will break Twitter, and that's what happens in this scenario. We've had more than one person in the league tell us that Manziel is believed to be the No. 1 player on the Cowboys' board, and it wouldn't surprise us if they took him here is he's still available. If Manziel is gone by this point, or the Cowboys choose not to take him, linebackers Anthony Barr, C.J. Mosley and Ryan Shazier are all possibilities with the No. 16 pick.
PLAYER CARD
17C.J. Mosley Baltimore Ravens (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 234POS: ILB
Analysis: If North Carolina tight end Eric Ebron falls to this point, I think he'll be the Ravens' pick at No. 17. The Ravens could also be a candidate to trade down (with the 49ers being a possible trade partner -- more on that later), especially if both Ebron and Mosley are off the board by the time they go on the clock. But Mosley is a logical fit here, as Baltimore could use an upgrade at inside linebacker (even if it isn't the most pressing need) and he's a good value at this point in the first round.
PLAYER CARD
18Brandin Cooks New York Jets (8-8)COLLEGE: Oregon StateClass: JrHT: 5-9WT: 189POS: WR
Analysis: It'll be interesting to see what happens if the Jets are presented with their choice of both Cooks and LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr., as I really don't know which player they would prefer. But I'll go with Cooks here, in part because I think Beckham could be off the board by this point with the 49ers trading up to get him (explained in more detail in the San Francisco write-up at No. 30) and in part because Cooks would provide the vertical threat the Jets' offense is lacking.
PLAYER CARD
19Cyrus Kouandjio Miami Dolphins (8-8)COLLEGE: AlabamaHT: 6-6WT: 322POS: OT
Analysis: I'm not sold on this one. Personally, I would take Morgan Moses here, with the caveat that he struggled at right tackle in college before moving to left tackle his senior season, and free agent Branden Albert is slotted for the left tackle spot in Miami. But I've heard both Kouandjio and Tennessee OT Ja'Wuan James associated with the Dolphins, and Kouandjio seems like the likelier fit. It would not be at all surprising if (A) Miami traded down several slots and then drafted an offensive tackle or (B) Miami selected linebackers Ryan Shazier or C.J. Mosley here.
PLAYER CARD
20Ryan Shazier Arizona Cardinals (10-6)COLLEGE: Ohio StateHT: 6-1WT: 237POS: OLB
Analysis: If Blake Bortles slides to this spot, I think he'd be the pick. There's even a chance the Cardinals could move up to get him if he starts sliding into the teens, although having just six picks in this draft limits their options a little bit. They need a long-term replacement for Carson Palmer (who turns 35 this season) at QB, and I've heard they really like Bortles. But in this scenario he is off the board (to the Titans at No. 11), and Shazier is a good value who could make an impact as part of Arizona's linebacker corps. I'm not a big Anthony Barr fan, but he'd also make some sense here in the Cardinals' 3-4 defense.
PLAYER CARD
21Marqise Lee Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 192POS: WR
Analysis: I would never put Lee here, as I think safety is a much bigger need (and the No. 1 safety on our board, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, is still available in this scenario) and there are probably four or five other positions that are bigger need areas for them than wide receiver. But I've heard that Lee won't get past the No. 21 pick, and he does make some sense in that they could get QB Aaron Rodgers another weapon -- and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb's contracts are both up after this season. Clinton-Dix is probably the more logical choice, but we'll roll the dice on Lee based on what we're hearing.
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22Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-1WT: 208POS: S
Analysis: Clinton-Dix falls further in this scenario than we might have expected (he's No. 13 on our board), but he'd be both a good value and a good fit for the Eagles were he to drop this far. He'd bring very good instincts, ball skills and range to the Philadelphia defense. USC WR Marqise Lee is also a possibility here if he gets to this spot.
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23Xavier Su'a-Filo Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)COLLEGE: UCLAClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 307POS: OG
Analysis: The Chiefs are another team that could look at USC WR Marqise Lee if he drops to this point, and Vanderbilt's Jordan Matthews is another possibility at the wide receiver position. They are also a strong candidate to trade down and try to get back a pick to make up for the second-rounder they dealt to the 49ers as part of the Alex Smith trade. But in this scenario, they fill a need by taking the No. 1 guard in this draft in Su'a-Filo.
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24Bradley Roby Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)COLLEGE: Ohio StateClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 194POS: CB
Analysis: Roby brings some character concerns with him, but the Bengals have shown a willingness to roll the dice with similar cases, and he fills a need at corner. In addition to becoming more mature off the field, Roby needs to improve his on-field discipline. But he has the natural physical tools to develop into a very good NFL cornerback. Something else to monitor: We've heard a lot of buzz about the possibility that the Bengals could trade up.
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25Anthony Barr San Diego Chargers (9-7)COLLEGE: UCLAClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 255POS: OLB
Analysis: Barr is the No. 25 player on my board, so the value matches up here, and the Chargers have a specific need at 3-4 outside linebacker and a general need to produce more game-changing plays on defense (just 17 takeaways and 35 sacks last season, both ranking in the bottom half of the league). Barr's upside as a speed rusher coming off the edge could be too tempting to pass up.
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26Teddy Bridgewater Cleveland Browns (4-12)COLLEGE: LouisvilleClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 214POS: QB
Analysis: The Browns passed on a quarterback at No. 4 in this scenario -- instead taking Clemson WR Sammy Watkins -- but they get one here. We've heard that the Browns like Bridgewater more than some other teams do (and more than the Browns like Fresno State's Derek Carr), and this is a logical spot in the first round for him to come off the board.
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27Jason Verrett New Orleans Saints (11-5)COLLEGE: TCUClass: SrHT: 5-9WT: 189POS: CB
Analysis: The Saints need a corner to challenge Champ Bailey for the starting job opposite Keenan Lewis, and Verrett represents solid value at this spot (No. 23 on our board). He makes up for his lack of ideal size by playing big (he isn't afraid to help in run support or deliver a big hit) and with his elite movement skills and top-end speed. Wide receiver is also a possibility here.
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28Morgan MosesCarolina Panthers (12-4)COLLEGE: VirginiaHT: 6-6WT: 314POS: OT
Analysis: Moses could be the Panthers' replacement at left tackle for the retired Jordan Gross. He ranks higher than this on our board, but from what we've heard, he could slide to the back end of the first round. Wide receiver is another big need area for Carolina, so that can't be ruled out at this spot, either.
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29Stephon Tuitt New England Patriots (12-4)COLLEGE: Notre DameHT: 6-5WT: 304POS: DE
Analysis: Tuitt is a top-15 player in this class based purely on talent; the issue with him has been proving he can play with consistent effort. If the Patriots are confident they can get the most out of him, he could be a steal here, given his versatility, physical tools and the Pats' need along the defensive line.
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30Odell Beckham Jr. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)COLLEGE: LSUClass: JrHT: 5-11WT: 198POS: WR
Analysis: Admittedly, we're bending the rules a little bit with this one. We don't consider it likely that Beckham will drop all the way to No. 30 (he's the No. 10 player on my board), but we do think he's a match for the Niners and that they could make a big move up the board to get him. However, since we're playing by the rules of not projecting trades, we decided to slot him here so as not to throw off the rest of the picks. It's an imperfect solution, but hopefully our main point is clear: We think the Niners will trade up into the middle of the first round to take Beckham as the speed receiver they really need.
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31Stan Jean-Baptiste Denver Broncos (13-3)COLLEGE: NebraskaHT: 6-2WT: 218POS: CB
Analysis: There has been some buzz in the last couple of days about Jean-Baptiste going in the first round (although some people in the league I've talked to have dismissed it), and this is a logical match: The Broncos need a corner to compete for the starting job opposite Aqib Talib, and he's the top-ranked cornerback remaining in this scenario. His Richard Sherman-like measureables (6-foot-3, 218 pounds, 32 1/4-inch arms) could pump up his value a little bit.
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32Jeremiah Attaochu Seattle Seahawks (13-3)COLLEGE: Georgia TechHT: 6-3WT: 252POS: OLB
Analysis: It's tough to project these last few picks in the first round, especially considering some teams could be looking to trade down into the bottom of the first round to take a quarterback, but we'll go with Attaochu in this scenario. The Seahawks require a lot of depth in their defensive front seven, and Attaochu brings good pass-rushing ability to the table.
