Gehlken: Cowboys Release TE Blake Jarwin

[data]

Aikman retired after the 2000 season. Romo won the starting job midway through the 2004 season. As frustrating as the end of Aikman’s career was, the team didn’t exactly suffer in no man’s land for years like other franchises have.

2006, not 2004

 

[Smitty]

Wait until the Jones actually have to spend real resources into finding a franchise QB.

I can’t believe we’ve been so fortunate with Romo and Prescott (and that they overlapped each other), yet haven’t been able to leverage it into success

Teams spend multiple premium draft picks to find franchise QBs. We got two combined on a single fourth rounder, yet the ‘extra saved’ draft picks didn’t translate into on-field differentiator either time, only enough to keep pace

Once we search for Daks replacement, imagine our disfunction now (ie Cooper, Gallup, Jarwin cap situation) while undergoing the typical trial and error of expending premium draft picks to obtain a franchise QB.

Here’s the secret, you don’t really have any realistic chance of winning the Super Bowl unless you have a Brady, Manning, Rodger, Mahomes, someone in that top, top tier (and you definitely aren’t winning multiple without a Hall of Famer). Romo was at one point early in his career nearly there, but fell off later. He was also that level in 2014 once he got a running game and OL but then injuries robbed him.

I don’t think Dak has ever been on that level. He’s more of an 8-12th best QB and that’s more like Matt Ryan “good enough to lose a Super Bowl once in your career” territory.

 

[Smitty]

Since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl, here are the winning QBs:

Favre
Elway
Elway
Warner
Dilfer (but all-time defense)
Brady
Brad Johnson
Brady
Brady
Roethlisberger
Manning
Manning (Eli)
Roethlisberger
Brees (at his best Romo was about on this level)
Rodgers
Manning (Eli)
Flacco
Wilson
Brady
Manning
Brady
Wentz/Foles (I count both because Foles would never have gotten that team to that playoff seeding)
Brady
Mahomes
Brady
Stafford (Romo was at this level at his best)

——————

I’d say 18 of those winners are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers (Favre, Elway, Warner, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes).

Two others were All-Pro level QB performances for that season or a run of seasons - Wilson in Seattle, Stafford in LA.

Two wins were from the football gods mistaking Eli for Peyton and gifting him two trophies for some reason.

Only four wins - Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles/Wentz won with less than elite QB play. And Wentz was elite that one year to get Foles into position for that postseason run. And maybe not ironically two of these wins came with the same well-run franchise - the Ravens.

Leaving you with basically one example - the 2003 Buccaneers - as a team without an elite non Manning QB who managed to put together a winner.

You can argue Dak is an Eli Manning equivalent perhaps. Romo certainly was even Manning’s superior in my book.

But the odds aren’t great. You are competing with like 25 other teams to divide up 4 wins out of 26. Of course we haven’t won in that time period then.

You need an elite QB. If the Joneses were smart they’d say to hell with convention. To hell with not drafting a QB high while you have a starter.

They would focus every last energy on drafting an elite QB.

 

[p1_]

Since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl, here are the winning QBs:

Favre
Elway
Elway
Warner
Dilfer (but all-time defense)
Brady
Brad Johnson
Brady
Brady
Roethlisberger
Manning
Manning (Eli)
Roethlisberger
Brees (at his best Romo was about on this level)
Rodgers
Manning (Eli)
Flacco
Wilson
Brady
Manning
Brady
Wentz/Foles (I count both because Foles would never have gotten that team to that playoff seeding)
Brady
Mahomes
Brady
Stafford (Romo was at this level at his best)

——————

I’d say 18 of those winners are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers (Favre, Elway, Warner, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes).

Two others were All-Pro level QB performances for that season or a run of seasons - Wilson in Seattle, Stafford in LA.

Two wins were from the football gods mistaking Eli for Peyton and gifting him two trophies for some reason.

Only four wins - Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles/Wentz won with less than elite QB play. And Wentz was elite that one year to get Foles into position for that postseason run. And maybe not ironically two of these wins came with the same well-run franchise - the Ravens.

Leaving you with basically one example - the 2003 Buccaneers - as a team without an elite non Manning QB who managed to put together a winner.

You can argue Dak is an Eli Manning equivalent perhaps. Romo certainly was even Manning’s superior in my book.

But the odds aren’t great. You are competing with like 25 other teams to divide up 4 wins out of 26. Of course we haven’t won in that time period then.

You need an elite QB. If the Joneses were smart they’d say to hell with convention. To hell with not drafting a QB high while you have a starter.

They would focus every last energy on drafting an elite QB.

and this is not the year for top tier QB talent.

 

[ravidubey]

Since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl, here are the winning QBs:

Favre
Elway
Elway
Warner
Dilfer (but all-time defense)
Brady
Brad Johnson
Brady
Brady
Roethlisberger
Manning
Manning (Eli)
Roethlisberger
Brees (at his best Romo was about on this level)
Rodgers
Manning (Eli)
Flacco
Wilson
Brady
Manning
Brady
Wentz/Foles (I count both because Foles would never have gotten that team to that playoff seeding)
Brady
Mahomes
Brady
Stafford (Romo was at this level at his best)

——————

I’d say 18 of those winners are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers (Favre, Elway, Warner, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes).

Two others were All-Pro level QB performances for that season or a run of seasons - Wilson in Seattle, Stafford in LA.

Two wins were from the football gods mistaking Eli for Peyton and gifting him two trophies for some reason.

Only four wins - Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles/Wentz won with less than elite QB play. And Wentz was elite that one year to get Foles into position for that postseason run. And maybe not ironically two of these wins came with the same well-run franchise - the Ravens.

Leaving you with basically one example - the 2003 Buccaneers - as a team without an elite non Manning QB who managed to put together a winner.

You can argue Dak is an Eli Manning equivalent perhaps. Romo certainly was even Manning’s superior in my book.

But the odds aren’t great. You are competing with like 25 other teams to divide up 4 wins out of 26. Of course we haven’t won in that time period then.

You need an elite QB. If the Joneses were smart they’d say to hell with convention. To hell with not drafting a QB high while you have a starter.

They would focus every last energy on drafting an elite QB.

Wentz was never elite. You are too close to the Eagles, I think. Not trying to bust your balls, but I never saw it with Wentz.

He always had problems and rode that defense and ridiculously good OL to the wins they needed. He himself was above average at best with cold stretches.

But when your defense is crushing it and your OL is protecting you and your coach is in a zone— even Trent Dilfer can win, and that’s what happened with Wentz. A product of his team keeping things close.

 

[data]

Since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl, here are the winning QBs:

Favre
Elway
Elway
Warner
Dilfer (but all-time defense)
Brady
Brad Johnson
Brady
Brady
Roethlisberger
Manning
Manning (Eli)
Roethlisberger
Brees (at his best Romo was about on this level)
Rodgers
Manning (Eli)
Flacco
Wilson
Brady
Manning
Brady
Wentz/Foles (I count both because Foles would never have gotten that team to that playoff seeding)
Brady
Mahomes
Brady
Stafford (Romo was at this level at his best)

——————

I’d say 18 of those winners are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers (Favre, Elway, Warner, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes).

Two others were All-Pro level QB performances for that season or a run of seasons - Wilson in Seattle, Stafford in LA.

Two wins were from the football gods mistaking Eli for Peyton and gifting him two trophies for some reason.

Only four wins - Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Flacco and Foles/Wentz won with less than elite QB play. And Wentz was elite that one year to get Foles into position for that postseason run. And maybe not ironically two of these wins came with the same well-run franchise - the Ravens.

Leaving you with basically one example - the 2003 Buccaneers - as a team without an elite non Manning QB who managed to put together a winner.

You can argue Dak is an Eli Manning equivalent perhaps. Romo certainly was even Manning’s superior in my book.

But the odds aren’t great. You are competing with like 25 other teams to divide up 4 wins out of 26. Of course we haven’t won in that time period then.

You need an elite QB. If the Joneses were smart they’d say to hell with convention. To hell with not drafting a QB high while you have a starter.

They would focus every last energy on drafting an elite QB.

To further your point about importance of elite QBs, I expanded your sample size to the AFCC/NFCC of the QBs the last eight years.

Of the 32 QBs, I marked 8 QBs (or 25% of the 32 slots) with (T) to denote their teams were the overwhelming reason they reached the AFCC/NFCC. This means that 75% of the Final Four had an elite QB (or playing at elite level), a 3.0x better chance than getting there with a tremendous team surrounding a less-than-elite QB.

NOTES:

• Cam Newton and Matt Ryan's season was during MVP year, so I didn't mark them with (T)
• I didn't mark 2017 Nick Foles with (T) because he was possessed by the spirit of an elite QB that postseason, posting 115.7 QB passer rating.
• I marked (T) for Peyton Manning's injury riddled-shell-of-himself final season
• If you want to round down and mark (T) for 2014 Russell Wilson and 2014 Andrew Luck, metrics revised to 22/32 teams with elite-level QB for 69% elite-to-31% non-elite.

2014
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Brady
Andrew Luck
2015
Peyton Manning (Broncos) (T)
Brady
Cam Newton
Carson Palmer (T)
2016
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers
Brady
Roethlisberger
2017
Brady
Blake Bortles (T)
Nick Foles
Case Keenum (T)
2018
Jared Goff (T)
Drew Brees
Brady
Mahomes
2019
Mahomes
Tannehill (T)
Garoppolo (T)
Aaron Rodgers
2020
Brady (Tampa Bay)
Aaron Rodgers
Mahomes
Josh Allen
2021
Burrow
Mahomes
Stafford
Garoppolo (T)

For shits & giggles, the combined playoff statistics for those eight QBs marked with (T):

• Total 22 games for 77.5 QB Passer Rating - 376/644 (58.4%), 4349 yards, 21 TD, 19 INT
• Per game - 17/29, 198 yards, 0.96 TD, 0.86 INT

 

[Simpleton]

Wentz was never elite. You are too close to the Eagles, I think. Not trying to bust your balls, but I never saw it with Wentz.

He always had problems and rode that defense and ridiculously good OL to the wins they needed. He himself was above average at best with cold stretches.

But when your defense is crushing it and your OL is protecting you and your coach is in a zone— even Trent Dilfer can win, and that’s what happened with Wentz. A product of his team keeping things close.

The Eagles run game was elite that year too, averaging nearly 5 YPC in total, plus a defense that was near the top of the league in turnovers forced.

That Eagles team (barring the miracle Foles playoff performance) was far closer to an Eli or Flacco-type Super Bowl team than a Mahomes, Brady, etc.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

You need an elite QB. If the Joneses were smart they’d say to hell with convention. To hell with not drafting a QB high while you have a starter.

They would focus every last energy on drafting an elite QB.

I think they'll be almost forced to that point with Dak in another couple of years.

To be totally fair though, most teams don't give up a good to very good QB in hopes of getting a great one. It's so hard to do and the odds of landing that elite guy are so low, I almost can't blame these teams for not doing it. It's too easy to do like the Skins and go from a Cousins to the QB wilderness where you don't even have a chance.

 

[shoop]

2006, not 2004

You are correct I looked at it wrong. Games vs games played.

 

[ravidubey]

The Eagles run game was elite that year too, averaging nearly 5 YPC in total, plus a defense that was near the top of the league in turnovers forced.

That Eagles team (barring the miracle Foles playoff performance) was far closer to an Eli or Flacco-type Super Bowl team than a Mahomes, Brady, etc.

And Flacco and Eli (multiple times, multiple years) made crazy clutch throws either in the playoffs or Superbowl that truly legitimized their rings.

Wentz did jack shat in the playoffs.

Many assume he'd have been the equal of Foles, but I call BS to that with every fiber of my being.

Wentz was never in that kind of 3-game zone with his coach and team vs elite competition. And Foles made some insane plays, especially in the Superbowl. Can't take those away from him, and especially can't just give them to do-nothing Wentz.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Wentz was really good that one year until he blew his knee out, though. Not that that's what has held him back since, because IMO teams weren't used to all that college RPO stuff back then and I think teams would have adjusted like they did with other teams that ran that. But up to that point he was tough to stop.

I still can't believe Washington signed him after what a joke he's become. What a give up.

 

[gp_cowpolk]

Yep.

He's terrible. He's always been terrible. He had one fucking game a thousand years ago.

We signed him to $20 million dollars based on almost nothing.

His injury had zero to do with this.

People are complaining about paying Schultz and I get it from a cap efficiency standpoint, but I'd far rather pay a guy like Schultz than a waste of a roster space like Jarwin, even if it means giving Schultz twice as much. We'll actually get real production out of Schultz.

Good thing about Shultz is he gets better every year Needs to work on blocking but he is big enough to do it