Cowboys Pregame Three Thoughts: Week 8
The Cowboys come off the bye and the challenge doesn't get easier.
Bob Sturm
Oct 25, 2024
Well, here we go.
When the schedule was released last spring, our eyes were always directed at the “showdown games” and the made-for-TV events where you know the networks are salivating at positioning their big numbers inside their ratings periods to make sure the entire business is secured with guaranteed audience scores.
It doesn’t take long to spot this fixture. Dallas at San Francisco gets the Sunday night slot in late October on an off-night during the World Series. This is not a shock to anyone who sees the patterns in how the NFL runs its business.
What might be considered a shock, on the other hand, would be to suggest to someone last spring that the two teams would be playing their final game in October with a combined record of 6-7. The 49ers and the Cowboys would win less than 50% of their games heading into a showdown with each other? What happened? And then you tell them the 49ers' record is actually worse than Dallas'? Really?
Sometimes, football happens. But this is also a test of “you are what your record says you are,” because the 3-3 team has a point differential that is 14th of the 16 NFC teams, while the 3-4 team is 7th and surrounded by teams with winning records. In other words, Dallas has been humiliated three different times this season, while the 49ers still look like a heavyweight that has lost due to a few fluky incidents and accidents.
That said, with both teams battered, bruised, and depleted, they meet yet again, where the matchups have not looked appealing for the Cowboys.
Dallas has lost three games in a row to their nemesis, and the prevailing theory in all three of those games—two in the playoffs—is that the offense has let them down. In particular, the one guy who has been paid to not let them down has let them down.
I remember the last time I was in San Francisco for this matchup, in the 2022 playoffs,
I spent considerable time at my old writing gig talking about how Dak Prescott would need to outplay Brock Purdy to get to the NFC Championship Game and how that clearly did not happen:
Six days after beating and outplaying the most decorated playoff quarterback in the history of the game, we thought Prescott might be ready to adjust his career narrative forever if he could back it up with a win over one of the least decorated playoff QBs. At least Purdy was before this game. Now, Purdy will do something for his franchise that no QB has done for the Cowboys since Aikman was a young man — start an NFC Championship Game.
This game will weigh heavily on all discussions about Prescott’s spot among quarterbacks. And, frankly, it should.
Since that day, Brock Purdy has blown out his elbow, recovered, smoked Dallas again, gone on another run through the NFC Championship Game, started the Super Bowl last spring in Las Vegas, pushed that game to overtime against the dynasty Kansas City Chiefs, was one throw away from winning it all, and is now in line to use Prescott’s contract as the comparison for what he expects next spring.
And Prescott is still in a somewhat similar spot to where he has been for a while—needing a game like this badly to change his narrative.
More on that in a moment.
First, I would offer that you might be somewhat surprised to see that, despite the 49ers owning the McCarthy Cowboys, if you measure the sample starting after Dave Campo was fired, you would find that Dallas has won six of the last ten meetings between the two teams. For about 20 years straight, Dallas had no trouble beating the Niners, but of course, these games weren’t considered showdowns very often. The one time San Francisco won was the season opener in 2014, which was a false indicator of the season to come for Dallas, as they would go on to have the best year of the Tony Romo era.
But the last three games have all felt like one continuous nightmare. The Cowboys can never score and never feel like they are playing on even footing. The 49ers' defense has held Dallas to 13 points per game, dominating and humiliating them on every drive.
Dallas would run up the score on every defense in the league between 2021 and 2023—except this one. This San Francisco defense would just destroy any Dallas momentum early and often by bullying the Cowboys all over the field. While there are many pictures and memories of this humiliation, the one most referenced is Ezekiel Elliott playing center at the end of the playoff game in 2022. I won’t even dignify that memory with a full description. It’s the ultimate “if you know, you know” moment. And if you are reading this, how can you ever forget?
It has been a pretty rough scene throughout.
Obviously, a win on Sunday could change 2024 dramatically for this team. A loss and the same refrains will be back and louder. These are my Cowboys PreGame Three Thoughts:
– Never has Dallas needed a top-shelf Dak Prescott performance like now. The noise will be high and that is where things have caved in on him in this stadium. He needs to stand tall or it will happen again.
When Dallas has the ball:
Well, let’s start with the following point - this is not a dominant 49ers defense. They are pretty average and you can argue that the talent level is not what it was, they don’t have all their pieces, and this is where the opportunity probably knocks the loudest.
But, we also know that this is where the Dallas offense just looks like they won’t understand how to take advantage of this situation because they have no ability to run the football and thus build opportunities to use diversity or disguise to allow them some open doors.
Everything the Cowboys have tried to do offensively this season has looked difficult. They have no real identity that we can detect, and the quality looks scarce. For a team built to push the ball down the field, there is a lack of production and explosion. They have one weapon that scares opponents, so defenses set traps around CeeDee Lamb intended to make the QB hesitate and walk into mistakes. They roll coverage to Lamb, so you either ignore him or force the ball to him. Both options play into the basic strategies opponents use to keep Dallas from establishing any rhythm.
Dak has to be at his best. There is simply no other way to win this game unless he is your best player.
They have the worst rushing offense and the worst rushing defense in the NFL (more on that soon), so, yeah, this has been brutal. And then, as we mentioned in this space a few months ago, they would be playing the big boys in the first two months, teams dominant in both departments. The Ravens, the Lions, and the 49ers eat teams like that for breakfast, and so far, we see how that has gone. If you want to read this piece from September 3rd where we sort of predicted this exact start,
you should here:
The styles of opponents that will encompass the next two months—one after the next—for Dallas explain and help inform this entire offseason emphasis from Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer to try to make the Cowboys more physical and deep in the trenches.
During the offseason, they invested heavily in their offensive line, and the youth, quality, and depth have a chance to be pretty special if things all go according to plan. But that is predicated on the two starters at center and left tackle proving they don’t require extended development behind the scenes. They are not only jumping from the Big 12 to the NFL, but as we just detailed, they will play at Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, and at San Francisco in their first two months on the job. I would submit that each of those is a huge test for a couple of college kids, but all three in succession? Not cool, NFL. Not cool.
So, now the question: Did it work? Did McCarthy with 12 personnel and Zimmer with a dedication to having “7 bigs” on the field give the Cowboys the ability to fight fire with fire? Do they have the ability to once again become one of those physical teams who you don’t want to play too often? They want to run the ball and stop the run. They want to win up front to have a chance to win on the scoreboard.
We are about to find out.
I am sad to report that once again, this was all pretty predictable and despite that, the outcomes have been clear. The Cowboys were not ready.
Here is how the matchup looks as we again point out that the 49ers are not what they once were on defense:
My brief objectives are somewhat obvious: play a clean game in terms of turnovers, but Dak needs to be aggressive. They have to find solutions that allow them to avoid situations where they are passing out of necessity. Some screens and a quick game to the perimeter will give them a chance, but efficiency on 3rd down and in the red zone will be key.
And yes, it has never been good enough from this QB and this offensive line in this atmosphere. But the cool thing about sports is there’s always an opportunity around the next corner. The Niners are depleted and down, and you just had a bye week to catch your breath. Win this game, get 24-27 points from your offense, and maybe 2024 can change overnight.
Now, our feature each week here is to highlight a player on each side of the ball, and Josh Clevenger cuts it up and spotlights the player. This week, I confess that two of my favorite players in the sport are also the thorns in the side of this Cowboys' pain. Fred Warner has been so good against Dallas, yet I cannot dislike him. He is everything you would want in a game-destroying LB. So, we made a reel of his top moments from the Cowboys' last visit to this stadium.
He plays fast, he gets off blocks, and he is here to make you want to get back on the bus and leave. To me, he is the industry standard at the position. What a player.
For Dallas to have a chance, they cannot let him take things over again.
Ok, let’s flip the field to see where the game really could get interesting.
When The 49ers have the ball:
– The Cowboys have to prove they can stop the run and we have seen almost no indication that they can – even when they load up for that specific purpose.
Guys, after seeing the way they have been run on this year after stating their specific objective of getting better at stopping the run, we may have to come to terms with the facts that they have no idea how to do this.
Here are two very disturbing tweets:
Cowboys are allowing 0.16 EPA/Play against the run this year (worst in the league). That figure would rank as the fifth-worst pass defense in the league.
And, even most staggering:
The Dallas Cowboys rush defense is atrocious Here is where the 2024 Cowboys rank out of all 798 teams in a season since 2000:
Defensive EPA per Rush: 798th
Now, I won’t use this opportunity to explain EPA per play here, but just know that if your rushing defense – that stated its objective to improve on some disappointing results from the season before – is 798th out of 798 teams in the last 25 years, we have a bigger problem than we can state.
I guess Dan Quinn’s name is being cleared of slander with each passing day.
Now, Skyler’s projected 22 is very TBD. We included Deebo Samuel and Micah Parsons, but obviously, they are both dicey. But, we also know you can think on your feet in these situations.
There is a scenario where the 49ers could be without Samuel, Jennings, and Kittle. Also, Brandon Aiyuk is a major issue for them, and we know Christian McCaffrey has been down all year. That means they might be without all five of their key skill players around Purdy.
"Decimated" might be an understatement. And yet, this is a great test of Xs and Os versus Jimmy’s and Joe’s. Yes, the 49ers have amazing talent, but they also scheme with motions, shifts, and misdirection. So, can Shanahan take advantage of the Cowboys without his guys?
If he does, you know you have massive problems. And yet, we sort of expect them to run the ball regardless of who is actually running it. Jordan Mason has been excellent, and the Cowboys' run defense has not.
Kansas City made this offense look brutal, but Dallas is not on that level. If I’m Zimmer, I might roll the dice and risk big plays because I have to make Purdy uncomfortable. He looked very jittery against the Chiefs, but he has always looked cozy and comfortable against Dallas. How do you do that? You start by making him pass. But Shanahan will surely run the ball 40 times on Sunday night, knowing the situation like he does.
This matchup presents this generation’s best rushing offense against this generation’s worst rushing defense. If styles ever made fights, the Niners are going to attack right here all night long.
Our feature player on this side of the ball is also one of my favorite NFL players, George Kittle. There is no more complete TE in the sport. He blocks like his life depends on it, he catches as well as most, and he plays with such energy and juice that he is a guy you just have to enjoy. Unless he hates your team.
And, we know Kittle is not a fan of Dallas.
He is a complete player and you can bet he will drag himself out there for this one.
– My last thought is unchanged from the last few weeks. It feels we are in the last days of this Cowboys era and that the end of the road is looming. And yet, all it takes is one big moment of arching your back and saying that today is not the day we allow it all to cave in. This situation is a character check game for the Cowboys. So, do they have enough?
Coming off the bye week and resting versus the 49ers dealing with Kansas City should almost be an unfair advantage for Dallas. If they still do not compete well, then we know that the rest of the way is just putting together next year’s coaching staff. If Dallas wants to fight for its present tense, Sunday is the time to see it.
Nobody is expecting them to stand tall in this challenge, because they haven’t been able to slow down Baltimore or Detroit at all. Well, here is one more chance to be counted.
But, probably, like me, you will need to see it to believe it.
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