2020 Draft Big Boards, Position Rankings & Mocks
- Thread starter Cowboysrock55
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And Wilson in the third. I would do backflips if this is what we ended up with.
Simpleton
DCC 4Life
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Yea I like Wilson alot, love the INT production.
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Cowboys mock drafts: Three different simulations for Dallas at No. 17, 51 & 82
By Bob Sturm 33m ago
I’ll be honest right here at the top: I have enforced a hefty boycott on creating mock drafts for the better part of the decade-plus I have been heavily analyzing the draft. What you are about to see will be as clear a departure from that stance as I will probably ever take.
My reasons for this “anti-mock” stance are many. But here are the two primary factors:
1) Unless you have studied all 32 teams as closely as I try to study the Cowboys (which I think is largely impossible), what are the odds that you have a good feeling for what Tennessee and Jacksonville and Detroit are actually thinking about doing at their picks? If we have no idea what the Jets are really planning on doing and have spent very little time looking into it, doesn’t the Jets pick often become a biased selection to either help or hurt the Cowboys depending on the writer’s perspective?
2) Unless I have studied all the players in this draft as thoroughly as I have spent 12 weeks on the 60 prospects I feel I have looked at thoroughly, what are the odds the mock creators are clear on each player’s actual body of work and value to the league? It took quite an effort for me to feel like I know 60 players, but that isn’t even two full rounds of prospects. Otherwise, there are many players early that I have hardly spent 15 minutes scouting.
EditOr’s note: You can read all 60 of Bob’s player profiles here!
Now, let me be clear. My very respected colleague Dane Brugler and several others league-wide do this full time, and they dive into the work. They are not cranking out game stories all autumn and winter long. They are covering the draft. In another life, I think that would be how I could ever know 300 prospects like Dane really does, but it is my contention most “mock creators” in this media world are picking familiar names and their mocks are merely enjoyable fan-fiction. I just don’t think that is my jam.
Because this is the spring of 2020, however, we are all trying new things and opening our minds to new perspectives. I agreed that this would be one of them. Being stubborn and getting older every year, this will be called a mock, but it is pretty much just a simulation. I will take several different simulators and mocks and attempt to follow their lead until pick No. 17. If they go three rounds, I will advance through No. 51 and 82 to help us get a feel for how I think the Cowboys should behave on Thursday and Friday. Anything on Day 3 is absolute fiction, so let’s not bother with that right now — at least from me. You can find others out there, for sure, who will accommodate you. Dane, whom I respect a great deal, conducted a seven-round mock last week. I just can’t do it.
Let’s get down to business!
SIMULATION No. 1 – Dane Brugler’s latest 7-round mock draft.
Clearly, I realize once I start messing with his picks, it would offer the butterfly effect and screw up all future picks if I don’t agree with Dane’s selection. But this is all make-believe, so let’s try it.
You can read for yourself that by pick No. 17, The Cowboys have not had any big sliders fall to them and appear to have the worst options of the three simulations we will do. Unlike the examples below, you will not find any of my top 10 players getting to them, so the best available appear to be:
AJ Terrell — Clemson, Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Kristian Fulton — LSU, Xavier McKinney – Alabama, Grant Delpit – LSU, Trevon Diggs (who Dane picks here) and… I suppose, Kenneth Murray.
I’m not crazy about these options, but this is probably what we are looking at realistically, which is why a trade down seems appealing.
MY PICK at 17: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina. I am flying blind on his medicals, but allow us to assume there is nothing to freak out about, and he just slid. Well, I love getting that awesome talent on-board inside, and now with Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe in front of him, we can take it a little slower than we first thought in February. I like this plenty if his health checks out.
If he is not, then I would prefer Fulton, but he and Terrell are nearly identical for my board (Diggs is well behind).
Now to the second round. Here, Brugler has made his picks to No. 50 and I believe the best players left will include: Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama (who Dane gives the Cowboys), WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, WR Jalen Reagor — TCU, CB Jeff Gladney — TCU and safety Antoine Winfield — Minnesota.
This is actually an ideal bunch to look through, because I think I would be delighted with any of these five making it to me here. But in his scenario, all five do, so we can have our pick of the litter. Excellent.
MY PICK AT 51: CB Jeff Gladney, TCU. I have very similar grades on Gladney and Winfield, so I could be talked into going either way — not to mention that I think Reagor fits very well with the Cowboys’ situation in that he might have some slot receiver snaps in his future. But for me, the premium position of corner can get a Day 1 starter, and I think I would be all over the local product here to coincide with our new DT at 17. If I went AJ Terrell or Fulton instead at 17, then I could see coming back to Reagor here at 51. The two picks are connected in my head, so there is definitely a shift in my view based on what we do at the top.
Let’s travel down Dane’s mock to No. 82.
Here, we see the options are being picked over well.
Logan Wilson, the LB from Wyoming, is his pick. Let me confess right here that I have not seen a frame of tape yet on him. My top five looks like this: DT Neville Gallimore — Oklahoma, Edge Bradlee Anae — Utah, CB/S Terrell Burgess — Utah, WR Van Jefferson — Florida, and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
MY PICK AT 82: DB Terrell Burgess, Utah. Unlike the selection at 51, this one seems rather picked over, but if I can get this talented defensive back who seems able to shift in many spots but probably is best as a nickel back and safety, I’m happy. He can add to the talent in the secondary, which we will feel great about with Gladney and Burgess now on the crew.
If this simulation happens, I think we would probably feel OK with how things went in this draft. Not ecstatic, but satisfied.
Let’s try another.
SIMULATION No. 2 – PFF’s Draft Simulator with the 50 percent PFF/50 percent public formula on:
In this first simulation, by the time the Cowboys went on the clock, three QBs went off the board. PFF actually had Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama at No. 1, Joe Burrow at No. 4 and Justin Herbert at No. 14 to Tampa Bay (I assume those weren’t trades, but again, who cares about trades in simulations?). Chase Young is the only edge gone, but three corners have been taken: Jeff Okudah at No. 3, C.J. Henderson from Florida at No. 11 and Kristian Fulton of LSU at No. 16. Three WRs are gone, with Jeudy, Ruggs and then Lamb all taken. Four tackles have been taken, as have Simmons and McKinney, so the Cowboys have not had great luck here.
The remaining best picks available according to my evaluations would easily be the defensive tackles: Derrick Brown, Auburn and Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina.
Other players I really like at No. 17 here include K’lavon Chaisson — LSU, AJ Epenesa — Iowa, and Grant Delpit — LSU. And if I wanted a corner here, I am down to pretty much AJ Terrell — Clemson, but I can’t completely ignore all the buzz that Trevon Diggs — Alabama has been getting. I want to be clear, though, that I don’t value him here.
Would the Cowboys trade back? Maybe, but again, trades in simulations are even more fictional than the rest of it, so let’s not suspend disbelief that far here.
Photo: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
MY PICK at 17: Derrick Brown, Auburn. Let’s not get cute. All things considered, the best player left also plays a position where you can use a stud at this age. Don’t overthink. Take him. Do I think Brown gets to 17? No. But if he does, Dallas shouldn’t hesitate.
By the time we get to No. 51, things have been really picked over. Wide receiver has been obliterated, edge is down to players who have real red flags and corner might be still alive, but not much. My top five players left are:
WR KJ Hamler — Penn State, CB Bryce Hall — Virginia, S Kyle Dugger — Lenoir-Rhyne, Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama, and CB Damon Arnette — Ohio State.
Based on that, I would have to decide between the very talented Hamler, Lewis and Arnette. This is difficult; I really need corner help, my slot position is yelling at me on Hamler and Lewis might be a great asset for the Cowboys’ defensive line.
MY PICK at 51: Terrell Lewis, Alabama. At pick No. 51, we want to find players who have tremendous upside to really become impact players and, of course, with 50 players gone, the players without issues are long gone. Lewis, though, has many things that you cannot teach and lacks the experience and the wisdom to play at the top level right now. That might not take long to fix in the right situation. Like Brown, he has real “beast traits.”
Finally, No. 82 comes around and the position of greatest supply appears to be tight end and wide receiver. Here are my top five left:
TE Cole Kmet — Notre Dame, WR Tyler Johnson — Minnesota, WR Devin Duvernay — Texas, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden — Liberty, and QB Jacob Eason — Washington.
I don’t want to get crazy here, but if these are my options, of which I think two of the pass catchers can make it to Round 4…
MY PICK at 82: Jacob Eason, Washington.
I know this might be upsetting to some, but if I can get a QB with this much talent in the third round to replace Cooper Rush, I am doing it.
If I walk away with Derrick Brown, Terrell Lewis and Jacob Eason by Friday night, I think I would actually feel pretty solid about everything but my secondary. I am pretty sure I can get a talented WR in Round 4, but my cornerback spots are awfully light.
Ok, one more simulation to complete our hat-trick.
Simulation No. 3 – The Draft Network’s Draft Machine using their predictive board.
At No. 17 in this scenario, the Cowboys will have to decide between the following: T Jedrick Wills — Alabama, DT Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson — LSU, both safeties (McKinney and Delpit) and several corners in LSU’s Fulton, Clemson’s Terrell and Alabama’s Diggs.
I want to be clear: Jedrick Wills is my favorite player left, so I would be deviating if I don’t take him, and I definitely should give it thought as I gave him a high-first-round grade. In real life, there is no chance he is here, and I would definitely anger the masses if I do it.
MY PICK at 17: Jedrick Wills, Alabama. Too good a talent to not take when Tyron Smith has missed three games per year since 2015 and perhaps isn’t my 2021 starter at left tackle. This guy is a mauler. He’s a destroyer. He can probably play either tackle spot and easily either guard. This is my Tyron Smith replacement, and I got him at pick No. 17 when I wasn’t desperate? Yes, sir. I am doing it. He is simply too good.
On to No. 51 as all of the rotten vegetables are being tossed at me.
Here, we find the selection coming down to the following five names in my rankings.
DT Ross Blacklock — TCU, DT Justin Madubuike — Texas A&M, WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, CB Trevon Diggs — Alabama and Damon Arnette, Ohio State.
Geez, that is some very impressive talent. Tee Higgins’ availability 50 picks into this draft is compelling. But, if I take him, that means I have gone with offense with both of my top two picks and it also means I have to move Amari Cooper to the slot after paying him $100 million to play outside. I don’t like either of those options, so because I already took Wills, I am going to address the defense. I like both defensive tackles a lot, but I also think they both have a ceiling lower than Diggs’. I can’t stand the thought of Diggs at 17, but if I can grab him here at 51? Yes, I will.
MY PICK at 51: Trevon Diggs, Alabama. I have real concerns about the parts of his game that are bothersome, but the positives should provide a perfect balance at this point of Round 2. Now, I trust my coaches and we get him ready to start in the NFL by midseason or sooner out there at corner where I had almost nothing past this year.
Let’s go to No. 82 now.
I think my best options here are: Edge Julian Okwara — Notre Dame, Edge Jonathan Greenard — Florida, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither — Appalachian State, Edge Khalid Kareem — Notre Dame and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
Clearly, according to my work, the best players left are on the edge.
MY PICK at 82: Jonathan Greenard, Florida.
He obviously has some questions, but they all do at this point, and I really enjoyed his work in 2019 after transferring. I do like his intangibles, but most importantly, he gets into that backfield quite well.
If you tell me I get Wills, Diggs, and Greenard with my first three picks, I am really satisfied with that haul of talent. This outcome would be phenomenal.
Bob Sturm's trio of Cowboys mock drafts
There you go! Those are three wildly different views on how Thursday and Friday might go (even though none will be accurate). It definitely shows that with these pick locations, the Cowboys are at the mercy of the waves of picks from competitors. They will have to stay ready and be willing to ride them to the best available options.
Tomorrow, I will publish my full rankings of the 60 players I profiled this spring.
By Bob Sturm 33m ago
I’ll be honest right here at the top: I have enforced a hefty boycott on creating mock drafts for the better part of the decade-plus I have been heavily analyzing the draft. What you are about to see will be as clear a departure from that stance as I will probably ever take.
My reasons for this “anti-mock” stance are many. But here are the two primary factors:
1) Unless you have studied all 32 teams as closely as I try to study the Cowboys (which I think is largely impossible), what are the odds that you have a good feeling for what Tennessee and Jacksonville and Detroit are actually thinking about doing at their picks? If we have no idea what the Jets are really planning on doing and have spent very little time looking into it, doesn’t the Jets pick often become a biased selection to either help or hurt the Cowboys depending on the writer’s perspective?
2) Unless I have studied all the players in this draft as thoroughly as I have spent 12 weeks on the 60 prospects I feel I have looked at thoroughly, what are the odds the mock creators are clear on each player’s actual body of work and value to the league? It took quite an effort for me to feel like I know 60 players, but that isn’t even two full rounds of prospects. Otherwise, there are many players early that I have hardly spent 15 minutes scouting.
EditOr’s note: You can read all 60 of Bob’s player profiles here!
Now, let me be clear. My very respected colleague Dane Brugler and several others league-wide do this full time, and they dive into the work. They are not cranking out game stories all autumn and winter long. They are covering the draft. In another life, I think that would be how I could ever know 300 prospects like Dane really does, but it is my contention most “mock creators” in this media world are picking familiar names and their mocks are merely enjoyable fan-fiction. I just don’t think that is my jam.
Because this is the spring of 2020, however, we are all trying new things and opening our minds to new perspectives. I agreed that this would be one of them. Being stubborn and getting older every year, this will be called a mock, but it is pretty much just a simulation. I will take several different simulators and mocks and attempt to follow their lead until pick No. 17. If they go three rounds, I will advance through No. 51 and 82 to help us get a feel for how I think the Cowboys should behave on Thursday and Friday. Anything on Day 3 is absolute fiction, so let’s not bother with that right now — at least from me. You can find others out there, for sure, who will accommodate you. Dane, whom I respect a great deal, conducted a seven-round mock last week. I just can’t do it.
Let’s get down to business!
SIMULATION No. 1 – Dane Brugler’s latest 7-round mock draft.
Clearly, I realize once I start messing with his picks, it would offer the butterfly effect and screw up all future picks if I don’t agree with Dane’s selection. But this is all make-believe, so let’s try it.
You can read for yourself that by pick No. 17, The Cowboys have not had any big sliders fall to them and appear to have the worst options of the three simulations we will do. Unlike the examples below, you will not find any of my top 10 players getting to them, so the best available appear to be:
AJ Terrell — Clemson, Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Kristian Fulton — LSU, Xavier McKinney – Alabama, Grant Delpit – LSU, Trevon Diggs (who Dane picks here) and… I suppose, Kenneth Murray.
I’m not crazy about these options, but this is probably what we are looking at realistically, which is why a trade down seems appealing.
MY PICK at 17: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina. I am flying blind on his medicals, but allow us to assume there is nothing to freak out about, and he just slid. Well, I love getting that awesome talent on-board inside, and now with Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe in front of him, we can take it a little slower than we first thought in February. I like this plenty if his health checks out.
If he is not, then I would prefer Fulton, but he and Terrell are nearly identical for my board (Diggs is well behind).
Now to the second round. Here, Brugler has made his picks to No. 50 and I believe the best players left will include: Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama (who Dane gives the Cowboys), WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, WR Jalen Reagor — TCU, CB Jeff Gladney — TCU and safety Antoine Winfield — Minnesota.
This is actually an ideal bunch to look through, because I think I would be delighted with any of these five making it to me here. But in his scenario, all five do, so we can have our pick of the litter. Excellent.
MY PICK AT 51: CB Jeff Gladney, TCU. I have very similar grades on Gladney and Winfield, so I could be talked into going either way — not to mention that I think Reagor fits very well with the Cowboys’ situation in that he might have some slot receiver snaps in his future. But for me, the premium position of corner can get a Day 1 starter, and I think I would be all over the local product here to coincide with our new DT at 17. If I went AJ Terrell or Fulton instead at 17, then I could see coming back to Reagor here at 51. The two picks are connected in my head, so there is definitely a shift in my view based on what we do at the top.
Let’s travel down Dane’s mock to No. 82.
Here, we see the options are being picked over well.
Logan Wilson, the LB from Wyoming, is his pick. Let me confess right here that I have not seen a frame of tape yet on him. My top five looks like this: DT Neville Gallimore — Oklahoma, Edge Bradlee Anae — Utah, CB/S Terrell Burgess — Utah, WR Van Jefferson — Florida, and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
MY PICK AT 82: DB Terrell Burgess, Utah. Unlike the selection at 51, this one seems rather picked over, but if I can get this talented defensive back who seems able to shift in many spots but probably is best as a nickel back and safety, I’m happy. He can add to the talent in the secondary, which we will feel great about with Gladney and Burgess now on the crew.
If this simulation happens, I think we would probably feel OK with how things went in this draft. Not ecstatic, but satisfied.
Let’s try another.
SIMULATION No. 2 – PFF’s Draft Simulator with the 50 percent PFF/50 percent public formula on:
In this first simulation, by the time the Cowboys went on the clock, three QBs went off the board. PFF actually had Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama at No. 1, Joe Burrow at No. 4 and Justin Herbert at No. 14 to Tampa Bay (I assume those weren’t trades, but again, who cares about trades in simulations?). Chase Young is the only edge gone, but three corners have been taken: Jeff Okudah at No. 3, C.J. Henderson from Florida at No. 11 and Kristian Fulton of LSU at No. 16. Three WRs are gone, with Jeudy, Ruggs and then Lamb all taken. Four tackles have been taken, as have Simmons and McKinney, so the Cowboys have not had great luck here.
The remaining best picks available according to my evaluations would easily be the defensive tackles: Derrick Brown, Auburn and Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina.
Other players I really like at No. 17 here include K’lavon Chaisson — LSU, AJ Epenesa — Iowa, and Grant Delpit — LSU. And if I wanted a corner here, I am down to pretty much AJ Terrell — Clemson, but I can’t completely ignore all the buzz that Trevon Diggs — Alabama has been getting. I want to be clear, though, that I don’t value him here.
Would the Cowboys trade back? Maybe, but again, trades in simulations are even more fictional than the rest of it, so let’s not suspend disbelief that far here.
Photo: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
MY PICK at 17: Derrick Brown, Auburn. Let’s not get cute. All things considered, the best player left also plays a position where you can use a stud at this age. Don’t overthink. Take him. Do I think Brown gets to 17? No. But if he does, Dallas shouldn’t hesitate.
By the time we get to No. 51, things have been really picked over. Wide receiver has been obliterated, edge is down to players who have real red flags and corner might be still alive, but not much. My top five players left are:
WR KJ Hamler — Penn State, CB Bryce Hall — Virginia, S Kyle Dugger — Lenoir-Rhyne, Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama, and CB Damon Arnette — Ohio State.
Based on that, I would have to decide between the very talented Hamler, Lewis and Arnette. This is difficult; I really need corner help, my slot position is yelling at me on Hamler and Lewis might be a great asset for the Cowboys’ defensive line.
MY PICK at 51: Terrell Lewis, Alabama. At pick No. 51, we want to find players who have tremendous upside to really become impact players and, of course, with 50 players gone, the players without issues are long gone. Lewis, though, has many things that you cannot teach and lacks the experience and the wisdom to play at the top level right now. That might not take long to fix in the right situation. Like Brown, he has real “beast traits.”
Finally, No. 82 comes around and the position of greatest supply appears to be tight end and wide receiver. Here are my top five left:
TE Cole Kmet — Notre Dame, WR Tyler Johnson — Minnesota, WR Devin Duvernay — Texas, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden — Liberty, and QB Jacob Eason — Washington.
I don’t want to get crazy here, but if these are my options, of which I think two of the pass catchers can make it to Round 4…
MY PICK at 82: Jacob Eason, Washington.
I know this might be upsetting to some, but if I can get a QB with this much talent in the third round to replace Cooper Rush, I am doing it.
If I walk away with Derrick Brown, Terrell Lewis and Jacob Eason by Friday night, I think I would actually feel pretty solid about everything but my secondary. I am pretty sure I can get a talented WR in Round 4, but my cornerback spots are awfully light.
Ok, one more simulation to complete our hat-trick.
Simulation No. 3 – The Draft Network’s Draft Machine using their predictive board.
At No. 17 in this scenario, the Cowboys will have to decide between the following: T Jedrick Wills — Alabama, DT Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson — LSU, both safeties (McKinney and Delpit) and several corners in LSU’s Fulton, Clemson’s Terrell and Alabama’s Diggs.
I want to be clear: Jedrick Wills is my favorite player left, so I would be deviating if I don’t take him, and I definitely should give it thought as I gave him a high-first-round grade. In real life, there is no chance he is here, and I would definitely anger the masses if I do it.
MY PICK at 17: Jedrick Wills, Alabama. Too good a talent to not take when Tyron Smith has missed three games per year since 2015 and perhaps isn’t my 2021 starter at left tackle. This guy is a mauler. He’s a destroyer. He can probably play either tackle spot and easily either guard. This is my Tyron Smith replacement, and I got him at pick No. 17 when I wasn’t desperate? Yes, sir. I am doing it. He is simply too good.
On to No. 51 as all of the rotten vegetables are being tossed at me.
Here, we find the selection coming down to the following five names in my rankings.
DT Ross Blacklock — TCU, DT Justin Madubuike — Texas A&M, WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, CB Trevon Diggs — Alabama and Damon Arnette, Ohio State.
Geez, that is some very impressive talent. Tee Higgins’ availability 50 picks into this draft is compelling. But, if I take him, that means I have gone with offense with both of my top two picks and it also means I have to move Amari Cooper to the slot after paying him $100 million to play outside. I don’t like either of those options, so because I already took Wills, I am going to address the defense. I like both defensive tackles a lot, but I also think they both have a ceiling lower than Diggs’. I can’t stand the thought of Diggs at 17, but if I can grab him here at 51? Yes, I will.
MY PICK at 51: Trevon Diggs, Alabama. I have real concerns about the parts of his game that are bothersome, but the positives should provide a perfect balance at this point of Round 2. Now, I trust my coaches and we get him ready to start in the NFL by midseason or sooner out there at corner where I had almost nothing past this year.
Let’s go to No. 82 now.
I think my best options here are: Edge Julian Okwara — Notre Dame, Edge Jonathan Greenard — Florida, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither — Appalachian State, Edge Khalid Kareem — Notre Dame and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
Clearly, according to my work, the best players left are on the edge.
MY PICK at 82: Jonathan Greenard, Florida.
He obviously has some questions, but they all do at this point, and I really enjoyed his work in 2019 after transferring. I do like his intangibles, but most importantly, he gets into that backfield quite well.
If you tell me I get Wills, Diggs, and Greenard with my first three picks, I am really satisfied with that haul of talent. This outcome would be phenomenal.
Bob Sturm's trio of Cowboys mock drafts
| SCENARIO NO. 1 | SCENARIO NO. 2 | SCENARIO NO. 3 |
|---|---|---|
| DT Javon Kinlaw | DT Derrick Brown | OT Jedrick Wills |
| CB Jeff Gladney | Edge Terrell Lewis | CB Trevon Diggs |
| S/CB Terrell Burgess | QB Jacob Eason | Edge Jonathan Greenard |
There you go! Those are three wildly different views on how Thursday and Friday might go (even though none will be accurate). It definitely shows that with these pick locations, the Cowboys are at the mercy of the waves of picks from competitors. They will have to stay ready and be willing to ride them to the best available options.
Tomorrow, I will publish my full rankings of the 60 players I profiled this spring.
Stasheroo
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2020
- Messages
- 1,536
Who said it's "expected"? Oh that's right - nobody. Strawman argument.
Fact is that Watt was there for the taking, the idiot coaches pushed for Charlton, and here we are.
It's clear that the Watt comparison is painful for you, but it doesn't change the facts. Plenty of players would "go higher in a redraft", but have fun with those exercises in futility and wastes of time.
Stasheroo
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2020
- Messages
- 1,536
I'd love that one too but I'd be shocked if Charles is there that late.
Stasheroo
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Jan 17, 2020
- Messages
- 1,536
I think it lined up perfectly for him in Scenario #3, but he passed on Chaisson.Cowboys mock drafts: Three different simulations for Dallas at No. 17, 51 & 82
By Bob Sturm 33m ago
I’ll be honest right here at the top: I have enforced a hefty boycott on creating mock drafts for the better part of the decade-plus I have been heavily analyzing the draft. What you are about to see will be as clear a departure from that stance as I will probably ever take.
My reasons for this “anti-mock” stance are many. But here are the two primary factors:
1) Unless you have studied all 32 teams as closely as I try to study the Cowboys (which I think is largely impossible), what are the odds that you have a good feeling for what Tennessee and Jacksonville and Detroit are actually thinking about doing at their picks? If we have no idea what the Jets are really planning on doing and have spent very little time looking into it, doesn’t the Jets pick often become a biased selection to either help or hurt the Cowboys depending on the writer’s perspective?
2) Unless I have studied all the players in this draft as thoroughly as I have spent 12 weeks on the 60 prospects I feel I have looked at thoroughly, what are the odds the mock creators are clear on each player’s actual body of work and value to the league? It took quite an effort for me to feel like I know 60 players, but that isn’t even two full rounds of prospects. Otherwise, there are many players early that I have hardly spent 15 minutes scouting.
EditOr’s note: You can read all 60 of Bob’s player profiles here!
Now, let me be clear. My very respected colleague Dane Brugler and several others league-wide do this full time, and they dive into the work. They are not cranking out game stories all autumn and winter long. They are covering the draft. In another life, I think that would be how I could ever know 300 prospects like Dane really does, but it is my contention most “mock creators” in this media world are picking familiar names and their mocks are merely enjoyable fan-fiction. I just don’t think that is my jam.
Because this is the spring of 2020, however, we are all trying new things and opening our minds to new perspectives. I agreed that this would be one of them. Being stubborn and getting older every year, this will be called a mock, but it is pretty much just a simulation. I will take several different simulators and mocks and attempt to follow their lead until pick No. 17. If they go three rounds, I will advance through No. 51 and 82 to help us get a feel for how I think the Cowboys should behave on Thursday and Friday. Anything on Day 3 is absolute fiction, so let’s not bother with that right now — at least from me. You can find others out there, for sure, who will accommodate you. Dane, whom I respect a great deal, conducted a seven-round mock last week. I just can’t do it.
Let’s get down to business!
SIMULATION No. 1 – Dane Brugler’s latest 7-round mock draft.
Clearly, I realize once I start messing with his picks, it would offer the butterfly effect and screw up all future picks if I don’t agree with Dane’s selection. But this is all make-believe, so let’s try it.
You can read for yourself that by pick No. 17, The Cowboys have not had any big sliders fall to them and appear to have the worst options of the three simulations we will do. Unlike the examples below, you will not find any of my top 10 players getting to them, so the best available appear to be:
AJ Terrell — Clemson, Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Kristian Fulton — LSU, Xavier McKinney – Alabama, Grant Delpit – LSU, Trevon Diggs (who Dane picks here) and… I suppose, Kenneth Murray.
I’m not crazy about these options, but this is probably what we are looking at realistically, which is why a trade down seems appealing.
MY PICK at 17: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina. I am flying blind on his medicals, but allow us to assume there is nothing to freak out about, and he just slid. Well, I love getting that awesome talent on-board inside, and now with Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe in front of him, we can take it a little slower than we first thought in February. I like this plenty if his health checks out.
If he is not, then I would prefer Fulton, but he and Terrell are nearly identical for my board (Diggs is well behind).
Now to the second round. Here, Brugler has made his picks to No. 50 and I believe the best players left will include: Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama (who Dane gives the Cowboys), WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, WR Jalen Reagor — TCU, CB Jeff Gladney — TCU and safety Antoine Winfield — Minnesota.
This is actually an ideal bunch to look through, because I think I would be delighted with any of these five making it to me here. But in his scenario, all five do, so we can have our pick of the litter. Excellent.
MY PICK AT 51: CB Jeff Gladney, TCU. I have very similar grades on Gladney and Winfield, so I could be talked into going either way — not to mention that I think Reagor fits very well with the Cowboys’ situation in that he might have some slot receiver snaps in his future. But for me, the premium position of corner can get a Day 1 starter, and I think I would be all over the local product here to coincide with our new DT at 17. If I went AJ Terrell or Fulton instead at 17, then I could see coming back to Reagor here at 51. The two picks are connected in my head, so there is definitely a shift in my view based on what we do at the top.
Let’s travel down Dane’s mock to No. 82.
Here, we see the options are being picked over well.
Logan Wilson, the LB from Wyoming, is his pick. Let me confess right here that I have not seen a frame of tape yet on him. My top five looks like this: DT Neville Gallimore — Oklahoma, Edge Bradlee Anae — Utah, CB/S Terrell Burgess — Utah, WR Van Jefferson — Florida, and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
MY PICK AT 82: DB Terrell Burgess, Utah. Unlike the selection at 51, this one seems rather picked over, but if I can get this talented defensive back who seems able to shift in many spots but probably is best as a nickel back and safety, I’m happy. He can add to the talent in the secondary, which we will feel great about with Gladney and Burgess now on the crew.
If this simulation happens, I think we would probably feel OK with how things went in this draft. Not ecstatic, but satisfied.
Let’s try another.
SIMULATION No. 2 – PFF’s Draft Simulator with the 50 percent PFF/50 percent public formula on:
In this first simulation, by the time the Cowboys went on the clock, three QBs went off the board. PFF actually had Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama at No. 1, Joe Burrow at No. 4 and Justin Herbert at No. 14 to Tampa Bay (I assume those weren’t trades, but again, who cares about trades in simulations?). Chase Young is the only edge gone, but three corners have been taken: Jeff Okudah at No. 3, C.J. Henderson from Florida at No. 11 and Kristian Fulton of LSU at No. 16. Three WRs are gone, with Jeudy, Ruggs and then Lamb all taken. Four tackles have been taken, as have Simmons and McKinney, so the Cowboys have not had great luck here.
The remaining best picks available according to my evaluations would easily be the defensive tackles: Derrick Brown, Auburn and Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina.
Other players I really like at No. 17 here include K’lavon Chaisson — LSU, AJ Epenesa — Iowa, and Grant Delpit — LSU. And if I wanted a corner here, I am down to pretty much AJ Terrell — Clemson, but I can’t completely ignore all the buzz that Trevon Diggs — Alabama has been getting. I want to be clear, though, that I don’t value him here.
Would the Cowboys trade back? Maybe, but again, trades in simulations are even more fictional than the rest of it, so let’s not suspend disbelief that far here.
Photo: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
MY PICK at 17: Derrick Brown, Auburn. Let’s not get cute. All things considered, the best player left also plays a position where you can use a stud at this age. Don’t overthink. Take him. Do I think Brown gets to 17? No. But if he does, Dallas shouldn’t hesitate.
By the time we get to No. 51, things have been really picked over. Wide receiver has been obliterated, edge is down to players who have real red flags and corner might be still alive, but not much. My top five players left are:
WR KJ Hamler — Penn State, CB Bryce Hall — Virginia, S Kyle Dugger — Lenoir-Rhyne, Edge Terrell Lewis — Alabama, and CB Damon Arnette — Ohio State.
Based on that, I would have to decide between the very talented Hamler, Lewis and Arnette. This is difficult; I really need corner help, my slot position is yelling at me on Hamler and Lewis might be a great asset for the Cowboys’ defensive line.
MY PICK at 51: Terrell Lewis, Alabama. At pick No. 51, we want to find players who have tremendous upside to really become impact players and, of course, with 50 players gone, the players without issues are long gone. Lewis, though, has many things that you cannot teach and lacks the experience and the wisdom to play at the top level right now. That might not take long to fix in the right situation. Like Brown, he has real “beast traits.”
Finally, No. 82 comes around and the position of greatest supply appears to be tight end and wide receiver. Here are my top five left:
TE Cole Kmet — Notre Dame, WR Tyler Johnson — Minnesota, WR Devin Duvernay — Texas, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden — Liberty, and QB Jacob Eason — Washington.
I don’t want to get crazy here, but if these are my options, of which I think two of the pass catchers can make it to Round 4…
MY PICK at 82: Jacob Eason, Washington.
I know this might be upsetting to some, but if I can get a QB with this much talent in the third round to replace Cooper Rush, I am doing it.
If I walk away with Derrick Brown, Terrell Lewis and Jacob Eason by Friday night, I think I would actually feel pretty solid about everything but my secondary. I am pretty sure I can get a talented WR in Round 4, but my cornerback spots are awfully light.
Ok, one more simulation to complete our hat-trick.
Simulation No. 3 – The Draft Network’s Draft Machine using their predictive board.
At No. 17 in this scenario, the Cowboys will have to decide between the following: T Jedrick Wills — Alabama, DT Javon Kinlaw — South Carolina, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson — LSU, both safeties (McKinney and Delpit) and several corners in LSU’s Fulton, Clemson’s Terrell and Alabama’s Diggs.
I want to be clear: Jedrick Wills is my favorite player left, so I would be deviating if I don’t take him, and I definitely should give it thought as I gave him a high-first-round grade. In real life, there is no chance he is here, and I would definitely anger the masses if I do it.
MY PICK at 17: Jedrick Wills, Alabama. Too good a talent to not take when Tyron Smith has missed three games per year since 2015 and perhaps isn’t my 2021 starter at left tackle. This guy is a mauler. He’s a destroyer. He can probably play either tackle spot and easily either guard. This is my Tyron Smith replacement, and I got him at pick No. 17 when I wasn’t desperate? Yes, sir. I am doing it. He is simply too good.
On to No. 51 as all of the rotten vegetables are being tossed at me.
Here, we find the selection coming down to the following five names in my rankings.
DT Ross Blacklock — TCU, DT Justin Madubuike — Texas A&M, WR Tee Higgins — Clemson, CB Trevon Diggs — Alabama and Damon Arnette, Ohio State.
Geez, that is some very impressive talent. Tee Higgins’ availability 50 picks into this draft is compelling. But, if I take him, that means I have gone with offense with both of my top two picks and it also means I have to move Amari Cooper to the slot after paying him $100 million to play outside. I don’t like either of those options, so because I already took Wills, I am going to address the defense. I like both defensive tackles a lot, but I also think they both have a ceiling lower than Diggs’. I can’t stand the thought of Diggs at 17, but if I can grab him here at 51? Yes, I will.
MY PICK at 51: Trevon Diggs, Alabama. I have real concerns about the parts of his game that are bothersome, but the positives should provide a perfect balance at this point of Round 2. Now, I trust my coaches and we get him ready to start in the NFL by midseason or sooner out there at corner where I had almost nothing past this year.
Let’s go to No. 82 now.
I think my best options here are: Edge Julian Okwara — Notre Dame, Edge Jonathan Greenard — Florida, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither — Appalachian State, Edge Khalid Kareem — Notre Dame and WR KJ Hill — Ohio State.
Clearly, according to my work, the best players left are on the edge.
MY PICK at 82: Jonathan Greenard, Florida.
He obviously has some questions, but they all do at this point, and I really enjoyed his work in 2019 after transferring. I do like his intangibles, but most importantly, he gets into that backfield quite well.
If you tell me I get Wills, Diggs, and Greenard with my first three picks, I am really satisfied with that haul of talent. This outcome would be phenomenal.
Bob Sturm's trio of Cowboys mock drafts
There you go! Those are three wildly different views on how Thursday and Friday might go (even though none will be accurate). It definitely shows that with these pick locations, the Cowboys are at the mercy of the waves of picks from competitors. They will have to stay ready and be willing to ride them to the best available options.
SCENARIO NO. 1 SCENARIO NO. 2 SCENARIO NO. 3 DT Javon Kinlaw DT Derrick Brown OT Jedrick Wills CB Jeff Gladney Edge Terrell Lewis CB Trevon Diggs S/CB Terrell Burgess QB Jacob Eason Edge Jonathan Greenard
Tomorrow, I will publish my full rankings of the 60 players I profiled this spring.
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I can see the value in Wills but that would be a tough pill to swallow. RT is locked up and Smith may miss a few games a year but I'm not real excited about using a first round pick on a guy to play 3 games a season for the next 2 to 3 years.
Stasheroo
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Same here. And to me it goes back to the saying 'a steak on every plate'. Does every position of the offensive line in Dallas now require a 1st round pick? That's going to be tough to maintain. We have some coaching now, let them coach up what we have.
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I mean if Tyron Smith was retiring this year I may be able to stomach it. Sort of like a first round pick center. Sure I'm with you that you don't need to use a first round pick every time you have a need on the O-line. Some of these third round pick and free agents need to start stepping in. But at least with a center it's likely a day 1 starter. With a OT like Wills you're talking about a guy who is probably sitting on the bench for years before getting his chance at OT. I guess maybe your hope is that he can play LG in the short term but then what about these second and third round pick O-lineman that you took not too long ago.
Stasheroo
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Yeah, it's simply overkill.
Joe Philbin made things work in Green Bay with a few 2nd and 6th rounders. Why shouldn't the Cowboys have to have a 1st round pick across the board? And years in now, the formula has yet to produce even a Championship Game appearance, much less a title.
Just maybe the team needs to make due without.
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Wills is pretty much a right tackle. No way I am taking a future LT who has never played on the side.
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Also something I agree with. Switching from LT to RT and vice versa isn't as easy as draft guys make it sound.
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NFL Mock Draft 2020: Tua Tagovailoa replaces Tom Brady with Patriots, Dolphins try unique plan at quarterback
Jonathan Jones has several trades going down in his one and only mock draft of 2020
www.cbssports.com
Cowboys receive picks 23, 87 and 125 from the Pats in exchange for No. 17. Pats select Tua at 17 and the Cowboys select Gladney at 23.
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Thrilled with the trade. Like Gladney. But it would feel a lot better if we went a different direction with that pick.NFL Mock Draft 2020: Tua Tagovailoa replaces Tom Brady with Patriots, Dolphins try unique plan at quarterback
Jonathan Jones has several trades going down in his one and only mock draft of 2020
Cowboys receive picks 23, 87 and 125 from the Pats in exchange for No. 17. Pats select Tua at 17 and the Cowboys select Gladney at 23.
Plan9Misfit
Appreciate The Hate
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Scenarios 1 or 2 would be great.
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Not an Eason fan but I'd wet myself with the first two picks there.
Plan9Misfit
Appreciate The Hate
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I like Eason with McCarthy as his coach. McCarthy develops QBs very well.
Stasheroo
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Does he?
I thought so too at first, but the stream of quarterbacks coming out of Green Bay occurred prior to McCarthy's time there.