2023 Random Cowboys Stuff Thread

[ravidubey]

A lot of Pitts' year was probably their terrible QB situation, though.

This right here. That team made it hard to evaluate anyone.

 

[Simpleton]

Pitts had 1000 yards and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, something tells me it's the laughable offensive system and shit QB situation where they throw the ball 19 times a game and not him.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Pitts had 1000 yards and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, something tells me it's the laughable offensive system and shit QB situation where they throw the ball 19 times a game and not him.

It could also be that teams figured out how to defend him after his rookie year. A lack of passing attempts doesn't really explain just how shitty his production was last year.

 

[Simpleton]

It could also be that teams figured out how to defend him after his rookie year. A lack of passing attempts doesn't really explain just how shitty his production was last year.

I'm sure that's it and not the fact that he played half a season in an offense that passed about 60% of the league average with arguably a bottom 5 QB situation in the league.

But yea, he's gonna make at least 3 more Pro Bowls.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I'm sure that's it and not the fact that he played half a season in an offense that passed about 60% of the league average with arguably a bottom 5 QB situation in the league.

Can you name another NFL TE who caught less than half the passes thrown at him? That's not just bad, that's awful. I was scrolling through like the top 60 TEs last year, Pitts was the only TE with that low of a number. But he may very well bounce back. But whatever was wrong in 2022 can't just be chalked up to being a running team. It was real bad. He obviously can be better than that.

 

[Simpleton]

Can you name another NFL TE who caught less than half the passes thrown at him? That's not just bad, that's awful. I was scrolling through like the top 60 TEs last year, Pitts was the only TE with that low of a number. But he may very well bounce back. But whatever was wrong in 2022 can't just be chalked up to being a running team. It was real bad. He obviously can be better than that.

That's a cool stat you found on Pro Football Reference, but can you name a receiving target who has produced at an elite level despite playing on a putrid offense with putrid QB play?

He already showed what he can do in 2021 with somewhat competent QB play, to argue that he was "exposed" last year as if he's athletically incapable of competing in the NFL is laughable.

Once he gets a QB who is even average he'll make several Pro Bowls, on top of the one he made as a rookie of course.

 

[ravidubey]

Can you name another NFL TE who caught less than half the passes thrown at him? That's not just bad, that's awful. I was scrolling through like the top 60 TEs last year, Pitts was the only TE with that low of a number. But he may very well bounce back. But whatever was wrong in 2022 can't just be chalked up to being a running team. It was real bad. He obviously can be better than that.

That same site credits him with three drops, not great, but where are these 59 “targets” landing if he’s not catching them and only dropped three?

In the turf? Deflected, picked, a mile overhead, uncatchable out of bounds? Depends on the PFF guys’ mood?

All I know is I’d love to have that guy on my team and fuck a bunch of stats

 

[Cowboysrock55]

That same site credits him with three drops, not great, but where are these 59 “targets” landing if he’s not catching them and only dropped three?

Not sure what site you're looking at but ESPN doesn't track drops from what I can see. Drops are very subjective. From site to site you'll see different drop numbers.

Targets and catches aren't. Was the ball thrown at him and did the throw result in a catch.

And I get his QB play was bad last year. There was a lot wrong with that offense. But Drake London caught 60+% of the balls thrown his way for example. So no I don't think you can attribute the drop with Pitts from year one to year two purely on the offense. There are more factors going on than just that. Could be he was playing hurt, could be their offensive coordinator was using him wrong. Could be a multitude of things. The end result was pretty bad. I think Pitts will be better this year. But I also think defenses adjusted to his playing style and now Pitts is going go have to adjust to those defenses.

I didn't realize that would be such a controversial thing to say. I'm not saying the guy is trash. But he also was nowhere close to looking like the fourth overall pick last year or a first rounder in general. We will see on year three.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Not sure what site you're looking at but ESPN doesn't track drops from what I can see. Drops are very subjective. From site to site you'll see different drop numbers.

Targets and catches aren't. Was the ball thrown at him and did the throw result in a catch.

And I get his QB play was bad last year. There was a lot wrong with that offense. But Drake London caught 60+% of the balls thrown his way for example. So no I don't think you can attribute the drop with Pitts from year one to year two purely on the offense. There are more factors going on than just that. Could be he was playing hurt, could be their offensive coordinator was using him wrong. Could be a multitude of things. The end result was pretty bad. I think Pitts will be better this year. But I also think defenses adjusted to his playing style and now Pitts is going go have to adjust to those defenses.

I didn't realize that would be such a controversial thing to say. I'm not saying the guy is trash. But he also was nowhere close to looking like the fourth overall pick last year or a first rounder in general. We will see on year three.

Don't worry, you're right.

I don't see anybody saying he sucks or can't be better.

But he was really bad last season. As you astutely point out, if it was all on the QB, system, and coaches, you'd see the rest of Atlanta's receivers with the same issues. But you don't. That's simple logic.

The point of all this is if you're drafting a TE that high because he's supposed to be some transcendent talent, you'd want more than what the falcons have gotten from Pitts.

Imagine if Parsons had the rookie year he had, but then came back in his second year with like half a sack, 3 pressures, 2 TFLs and was injured half the year. Some people would still defend him and point to his rookie year as proof of his greatness. But there would be a lot of people who rightly would be questioning how good he really is.

Because when you draft a guy that high and he's touted as the next phenom at his position, he shouldn't be bottoming out like that. Part of what you want is consistency.

We're not talking about counting stats where you can say, well, they run a lot so the opportunities aren't there, or the QB isn't finding him or whatever. He got plenty of targets and he caught less than half. That's a problem.

For comparison's sake, Pitts had by far the lowest catch percentage on the team. The next lowest was 56.5%. Everyone else was above 60%.

But somehow it was the system/QB/coaches? That doesn't make logical sense.

Maybe Pitts was playing hurt, like really hurt. Maybe it was mental. Maybe he was lazy or disgruntled. Maybe he struggled with double teams. You can say a lot of things to explain it. But you can't say it didn't have anything to do with him. It clearly did.

Hell people were criticizing Lamb for far milder performance issues.

 

[p1_]

why are y'all using Pitts as a benchmark for highly drafted TE's? Arent there others who can be reviewed along with him for a more balanced picture ?

 

[Genghis Khan]

why are y'all using Pitts as a benchmark for highly drafted TE's? Arent there others who can be reviewed along with him for a more balanced picture ?

The point isn't balance, the point is it isn't guaranteed no matter how hyped the guy is (that's true of other positions also of course).

But sure, you could throw in Winslow or Shockey too if you want.

 

[p1_]

why are y'all using Pitts as a benchmark for highly drafted TE's? Arent there others who can be reviewed along with him for a more balanced picture ?

maybe like Hockenson, OJ Howard or Vernon Davis ?

 

[p1_]

The point isn't balance, the point is it isn't guaranteed no matter how hyped the guy is (that's true of other positions also of course).

But sure, you could throw in Winslow or Shockey too if you want.

I thought it was about 1st round level talent ?

 

[Genghis Khan]

I thought it was about 1st round level talent ?

I was being sarcastic; they don't balance it at all. But Winslow went 6th. Shockey went 14.

 

[data]

@NoDak mission accomplished

 

[boozeman]

maybe like Hockenson, OJ Howard or Vernon Davis ?

Hockenson is a great cautionary tale. Howard was a big bust. Davis was classically decent.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I thought it was about 1st round level talent ?

I was just talking about Pitts because he was the surest thing at TE I can remember. More than any other TE you can name. But yeah you can definitely go through the list of every first round TE in the last 10 or 15 years. There are some decent names and a lot of busts.

2022- no first round TE
2021- Kyle Pitts
2020- no first round TE
2019- TJ Hockenson
Noah Fant
2018- Hayden Hurst
2017- OJ Howard
Evan Engram
David Njoku
2016- no first round TE
2015- no first round TE
2014- Eric Ebron
2013- Tyler Eifert
2012- no first round TE

So there is your last decade or so of TE's in the first. Not a great looking group. It's also a fairly small sample size because unlike most NFL draft positions half the time a guy doesn't even go in the first round at TE. It's also in no way me trying to say you can't take a TE in the first round. Just that the evaluation is more difficult. I think everyone would agree that if we knew Kelce or Kittle would become what they have become, they would take those guys in the first round.

 

[ravidubey]

What I'm saying @Cowboysrock55 is the target stat does not include the catchability, which while also subjective tells much more of the story.

PFF called 33 of Pitt's 59 targets uncatchable-- highest of any player at any position with at least 50 targets. PFF also called 26 percent of Marcus Mariota’s passes overall uncatchable, second-worst only to Zach Wilson.

For some reason in 2022 the Falcons turned Pitts into more of a vertical weapon, and Mariota really couldn't connect downfield.

I get your logic, @Genghis Khan, though comparing catch%age stats of WR's on the same team assumes some vein of commonality between how they are used. For example it would be useless to compare WR and RB catch percentages as RB's catch a ton more dumpoffs and checkdowns which are high percentage throws. In Atlanta's case, London was more of a possession WR, but for some reason they sent Pitts deep.

According to PFF Pitts had 14 targets of 20-plus air yards through week 11 to the point he led all TE's in total targeted air-yards (only three other TEs were within 150 yards of his) and he was 2nd in air-yards per target.

Considering Mariota completed an NFL-low 22.2% of his deep passes and only one to Pitts, that did not work out so well.

Check out even this set of targets from the Carolina game (randomly snagged), I think Mariota threw two passes I'd consider even semi-accurate, and Pitts' lone drop was thrown clearly behind him for no good reason.

 

[boozeman]

 

[data]

Alexis Texas is a top tight end