At the moment of truth, the Cowboys offense fails to produce against pressure: Decoding Kellen Moore
By
Bob Sturm
It is the conclusion of this media voice that the lion’s share of disappointment for 2021 must fall on the shoulders of this offense. Despite delightful statistical accumulation, the
Cowboys demonstrated again that they did not have the ability to score and accumulate when it counted most. We have seen this before, but in these win-or-go-home moments, it should fall to the offense to demonstrate what it has done with the assets from this organization. In a salary-capped league with a finite amount of resources, almost everything is constantly being given to the offense. Compensation along the offensive line, skill positions, and, lest we forget, quarterback, is among the highest in the sport. They have dedicated resource after resource to build an unstoppable attack.
And yet, with everything on the line — including the job security of those responsible — they were able to muster seven points on their first seven drives. Punt, punt, touchdown, punt, punt, interception, punt. By that point, Dallas was trailing, 23-7, and the game was in the fourth quarter. Congratulations, you have squandered another year of football with an afternoon that did not flatter this squad’s record-breaking offensive numbers.
Now, we look for answers. But all we see are more questions. How does this happen
again? Why are we arriving at the same spots? Why does this offense look disjointed when it is faced with the challenges that playoff defenses can provide? The problem seems to become clearer this time of year.
Whether we talk about the 2007 and 2011 New York Giants or the 2020
Tampa Bay Buccaneers or now the 2019 and 2021 San Francisco
49ers, elite offense has problems with the same thing. Invariably, these teams go on playoff runs because their defenses can apply large amounts of pass pressure without using second- and third-level defenders to do it. The other way to say it: They can get to your QB without blitzing.
Why is this important? Because the fewer troops it takes to knock him around, leaves more troops to make sure nobody is open. And that is what happened Sunday against the 49ers. Perhaps the more discouraging aspect of this is that
Nick Bosa had to leave the game — with
Dee Ford on IR most of the year — so the two players they dedicated to this purpose with huge resources were missing. And the players remaining dominated the Cowboys offensive line so that
Dak Prescott was under more pressure than he was at any other point of the season.
The following chart should verify this claim. This is from our friends at Tru Media and PFF and it shows you a ton of information about how each team defended this offense. I direct you to the last two columns. The first is blitz rate (the percentage of plays the Cowboys were blitzed) and the other is QB pressure rate (percentage of plays the QB is disrupted in his process by pressure).
Hypothetically, the more you blitz, the more pressure you get, but we know that is wrong. The more you blitz, oftentimes, the more you weaken your defenses in the back. Veteran QBs love to be blitzed because they get to throw to receivers with more opportunity to make plays.
This chart shows a few things. Dallas was really good against the blitz this year and basically made teams stop trying. Carolina brought in a blitz defense that was going to bring it all day. Tampa Bay did the same. And Dallas looked great against both. New England and Minnesota as well.
Honestly, the only team that really made Dallas wrong on blitzing was Arizona two weeks ago. This probably is what Vic Fangio was saying. Don’t blitz them at all. Make Prescott stand back there and look for three receivers among seven and sometimes eight defenders and take frustrating checkdowns.
You can still win that way, but it won’t be as fun. People will say you are in a slump. People will want to know where the fantasy points are. Remember this chart? Where did all of the explosives go?
But, here is where San Francisco and a few other defenses must be considered a real threat. On Sunday, without Bosa for a huge part of this, they were able to log 50 percent pressure (see the last column on that chart) which was the highest number this season by a mile. The three previous highs in QB pressure rate were Denver, Kansas City and Arizona (loss, loss, loss). But none were even 40 percent.
Here we had 50 percent pressure! The offensive line was absolutely destroyed.
Tyron Smith,
Connor Williams and
La’el Collins all had rough days. Even
Zack Martin was in on some rough protection moments which is rare. Five sacks allowed, but lots and lots of pressure — without hardly blitzing.
Very bad.
Of course, then people point at the QB. Why is he holding the ball? Well, because nobody is open. Why is nobody open? Because the 49ers are destroying your protection with only four players so we have seven covering
CeeDee Lamb and
Amari Cooper and letting Prescott play catch with
Cedrick Wilson and
Dalton Schultz because the 49ers are certain that won’t work.
Seven points in seven drives.
Were there solutions to be found?
I think so. Please note that my years of analysis on the internet does not mean that I think I am more of an offensive mind than Kellen Moore or Mike McCarthy. They have forgotten more than I will ever know. But, these topics are interesting and I love trying to sort out what is going wrong.
Here is the issue I kept seeing: The Cowboys could not demonstrate any sort of ability to “get open” before the pressure got there. We have seen this at times and by the way, so have many elite offenses when faced with this. Tampa Bay last year beat Drew Brees,
Aaron Rodgers and
Patrick Mahomes consecutively by following this exact recipe.
How do you beat it?
First, you attempt to take what they give you. Trouble is, since about halfway through this season, the Cowboys traditional run game has been broken. I would again direct you to the offensive line, even though it is always more fun to blame the running back here. I think if you analyze most of the runs
Ezekiel Elliott had on Sunday, you will see that the guys up front were getting smashed.
Ezekiel Elliott Next Gen run chart
So, they can’t run the ball — like most of the past two months.
Fine. I immediately wanted them to do two things that they did not do and this is where I have many questions.
1. Get Lamb into the slot where he can affect coverages more.
Why does Lamb stay outside? We know he is best between the numbers and is electric. You have to get him the ball inside. I know
Michael Gallup getting hurt made the Cowboys want to push Lamb outside and bring in slot threat Wilson and there are weeks where that looks great. But, the 49ers were using zones and split safeties to really cheat to Cooper and Lamb in coverages with safeties over them. It is so hard to find space downfield. This is why I need Lamb underneath. He uncovers there and rips you to shreds inside and before long you are moving your pieces to compensate and the outside threats are open again.
Look at his production Sunday:
Three snaps in the slot? Why?
Then the other underneath threat was not used, either.
2. Where was
Tony Pollard?
Pollard was barely used in any capacity and I don’t believe there was a single play when Pollard and Elliott were on the field together. So no, the Cowboys weren’t saving that scheme wrinkle for the playoffs. Sigh.
I show you the groupings above for two purposes. One is the ridiculous 4.22 yards per snap and even more ridiculous 4.45 yards per snap in 11 personnel. You cannot win with that production. The other point is to prove there were no two RB snaps in the entire game when you probably needed them.
Very frustrating.
Weekly data box: Wild-card round vs. San Francisco
All the red numbers show a passing game that was broken. Prescott will receive and deserve his portion of blame for looking hesitant and inconsistent in the past few months, but doggone, the coaching staff was doing him no favors.
Play after play looks the same. Receivers are covered, Prescott’s first two reads are “no”, and then he is under pressure and must make up something. This is not an offensive scheme that can win. You must bake in solutions, especially in 11 personnel, when the defense knows you wish to pass.
Dallas seems to have fallen into the “go make a play” as opposed to providing solutions. That goes on the coaches — and then not to use their solutions of Lamb and Pollard at all? That isn’t the QB.
Dak Prescott Next Gen throw chart
This was a mess: 69 passer rating and 5.9 yards per attempt were the worst playoff game of his career.
I picked six plays from those first-half moments that lost this game. I could have done 40, but I had to stop myself. We will have time in the offseason to do more.
Film study
1Q – 10:50 – 2nd and 10 – DAL 25 – E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 22 for -3 yards.
First drive, second play. Here is a run with 12 personnel (
Terence Steele is the TE on the left) and Dallas wants to set the tone physically right into the teeth of the 49ers to see if they are ready for a street fight. The Cowboys lost this play so badly at so many spots that it sent a message to both teams on the first drive that Dallas has no chance to run the ball into the 49ers heart and have a chance. You don’t give up there, but
this play was a morale killer. It really kicked everyone right in the groin.
1Q – 10:15 – 3rd and 13 – DAL 22 – D.Prescott sacked at DAL 12 for -10 yards (sack split by N.Bosa and S.Ebukam).
The Cowboys come back on the next snap and with a third-and-13 to convert. This is exactly what we talked about above. You have the deadly combination of nobody close to open and no protection that can handle a four-man rush. Bosa (97) stunts inside and nobody touches him and you are dead across the board. If you want Schultz (86) for three yards on third-and-13, the 49ers are begging you to hit him. Otherwise, you are in trouble. Prescott resists the easy checkdown because he needs a first down and with seven defenders back there and no route combinations to conflict defenders, I have no idea what the solution is here.
1Q – 3:35 – 3rd and 6 – DAL 23 – D.Prescott pass deep middle to C.Lamb to SF 45 for 32 yards (D.Greenlaw).
PENALTY on DAL-C.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards.
It’s third-and-6 on the second drive, so QB1, go make a play. He does. This was a huge moment down, 10-0, but it won’t count because Williams (52) and Collins (71) lose up front and Williams holds
Arden Key (98) with all of his might to make sure Prescott doesn’t get smashed. They cannot protect against four with six. Schultz is open and so is Lamb, but the holding brings it all back. The Cowboys in the first quarter cannot pass protect.
1Q – 3:14 – 3rd and 16 – DAL 13 – D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Wilson to DAL 20 for 7 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at DAL 19.
On the next play, third-and-16, the Cowboys go back to the
Jets concept we covered a few weeks ago. This is probably why they love Wilson (1) inside so much and they set this up to hit Pollard (20) on the rugby pitch, but Wilson is so far away that everything has to be precise and he fires the ball past Pollard and way out of bounds. Again, Romo said it, great idea that ended up looking silly. It was probably there and who knows how far Pollard can go.
2Q – 5:24 – 3rd and 5 – SF 20 – D.Prescott pass deep right to A.Cooper for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Armstead].
Here is the third drive and this goes back to how to play Prescott. He is good enough that if you blitz him, he will burn you. The 49ers decide to test that with a huge blitz and Cooper out of the slot gives us the slot fade against
K’Waun Williams (24) and it is easy money. Great throw and we know the Cowboys can beat man coverage and blitzes. They just never see it anymore. For good reason.
2Q – 1:09 – 2nd and 20 – SF 49 – D.Prescott pass short right to E.Elliott to SF 49 for no gain.
Here we are right before halftime as the Cowboys want to double-up. Get points here and then points on the other side of halftime when they get the kick and maybe a 16-7 deficit becomes a 17-16 lead? It is a nice theory. The slot blitz comes off the right from Williams (24) and it also doesn’t get protected well. Because it is second-and-20, Prescott decides to try to dump it to Elliott and then you see the 49ers fly to the ball with speed and bad intentions. Again, you aren’t beating the 49ers when you get behind the chains.
2Q – 0:38 – 3rd and 20 – SF 49 – D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to C.Wilson.
So here is possibly the fade to black moment. It’s third-and-20 and Dallas absolutely needs a field goal. The Cowboys use Cooper and Lamb to chase off coverage and that should get Wilson to a decent spot near the 35-yard line. He is wide open and then blinded by the sun.
You can’t make this up.
He can’t see the ball. I wish it was all a joke, but this is where
we are in the banana stand.
We shall soon find out if this was the last game of Kellen Moore in Dallas or who knows what changes we might face? But, the way this offense skidded at the end is unacceptable. The Cowboys had the season right where they wanted it, but the offensive line, passing game, running game and coaching staff all joined together in their collapse.
Just so disappointing again.
t.co
