Fuck it. Since I’m betting Irvin doesn’t get his due from The Athletic, I’ll state the case for Michael Irvin. We all know his intangibles, so not going to get into it.
However, Irvin gets knocked down on the all-time GOAT WRs because of his injuries and how they prevented Irvin from piling on past-his-prime yards. Furthermore, in addition to his career-ender at Veterans Stadium, he lost 16 games in his first three years (1988-1990). For perspective, not even including his early year injuries, but had he played three more seasons past his prime and added 2,500 garbage yards,
Irvin would jump up from his current #28 to about #9. How much more inclusion would Irvin get at #9? A whole helluva lot. As evidence, Larry Fitzgerald often gets included in the goat conversation despite his stat compiler-ish career. Anyway, Irvin’s last two seasons he averaged 1,100 yards so I don't think 2,500 in three seasons is a stretch at all.
But I've never been a real fan of total career yardage stats...even if Irvin played longer, it wouldn’t have enhanced his stats for his prime (my most important criterion for greatness). So, away with the hypotheticals and let’s analyze reality. Here's my take on the greatness of Michael Irvin.
-------
TLDR. If you exclude TDs, Michael Irvin is one of the top 2 greatest WRs in efficiency from 1985 - 2010. Efficiency meaning production per Target (again, excluding TDs).
-------
I totaled the seven (7) best seasons for 16 WRs (during 1985 - 2010, 2010+ excluded cuz got passing insane, so no Megatron, Antonio Brown or Julio Jones).
Miscellaneous Non-Michael Irvin Observations:
1. Catch % (
@Genghis Khan @Cowboysrock55 @Iamtdg ) doesn't vary much between the Top 15 WRs, only an 8% variance (between highest 66% - 61%, with lowest #16 Ochocinco being #57%).
2. 1st Down % has higher 21% variance (between highest 76% Ochocinco - 63% Hines Ward)
3. YPC also has a higher 20% variance between Top 14 WRs (then really dropping off at #15 Hines Ward and lowest #16 Cris Carter are a yard lower than #14 Fitzgerald).
4. YPT (Target) has the largest variance. Outliers are Jerry Rice #1 in his own tier (good) at 7% higher than #2 Moss. Also in his own tier (bad), the lowest #16 is Cris Carter with 9% lower than #15 Hines Ward. The middle 14 WRs have a 17% variance.
5. Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Jerry Rice averaged almost a TD-per-game in their Top 7 seasons. Amazing.
6. Torry Holt averaged the most receiving yards. Surprisingly, Jimmy Smith and Steve Smith ranked #6 and #7.
7. Berman/Tom Jackson nailed Cris Carter as he truly 'all he does is catch Touchdowns'. His only positive Rate Statistic was TDs and was below average in all other categories.
8. Why is Andre Reed in the Hall of Fame?
9a. Just comparing the below stats, there's there little separating Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Ochocinco. Compared to actual HOF consideration, OchoCinco deserves more consideration while Hines Ward should be crossed off. However, if I had to vote for one (statistically), Torry Holt gets it.
9b. Statistically, Hines Ward is like Cris Carter without the TDs, but Super Bowl MVP.
10. I deleted Tim Brown and Andre Johnson as they just lowered the averages.
------------------
How does Michael Irvin stack up?
SECTION 1A (RATE STATISTICS, WITHOUT TDs)
Now, we know Irvin suffers in comparison to the elite with TDs, so this section excludes TDs. How does Irvin compare when it comes to efficiency with the other Big Four Rate Stats -- Catch %, First Down %, Yards per Catch and Yards per Target? Long story short,
Michael Irvin ranks #1. Honest to God, other than eliminating TDs (which is very significant and I account for later), I didn't doctor or stack the deck in favor for Irvin.
Michael Irvin, 24 points
Rice, 22
Moss, 17
Isaac Bruce, 14
T.O., 12
Torry Holt, 11
OchoCinco, 5
Reggie Wayne, 2
Marvin Harrison, 0
Steve Smith, -2
Jimmy Smith, -6
Andre Reed, -7
Rod Smith, -10
Larry Fitzgerald, -19
Hines Ward -24
Cris Carter -39
-
YPC. @Cowboysrock55 loves YPC, right? Well if you thought Randy Moss was the king of YPC with all those sky-high bombs, you're correct with his 15.9 YPC. But
Michael Irvin is #2 at 15.6 YPC, although the difference is somewhat negligible down to #8 Steve Smith at 14.9 YPC.
Moss, 15.9
Irvin, 15.6
Rice, 15.5
I. Bruce, 15.4
OchoCinco, 15.1
Holt, T.O., 15.0
Steve Smith, 14.9
Jimmy Smith, 14.4
Andre Reed, 14.3
Rod Smith, 13.9
Reg Wayne, Harrison, 13.7
Fitzgerald, 13.3
Hines Ward, 12.3
C Carter, 12.1
-
YPT (Target). Michael Irvin is #T2 and the dropoff is at #7.
Rice, 10.2
Moss, Irvin, 9.5
I. Bruce, 9.4
T. Holt, 9.3
T.O., 9.2
Steve Smith, 9.1
Marvin Harrison, Andre Reed, Jimmy Smith, 8.8
Reg Wayne, OchoCinco, 8.6
Rod Smith, 8.4
Fitzgerald, 8.2
Hines Ward, 8.1
C Carter, 7.4
-
1st Down %.
Irvin is #T1 and almost in his own Tier 1 with OchoCinco. Irvin may not have been prolific in the end zone, but this is why haters are sick of Irvin’s swordsman first down showboating move. He’s the highest rated first-down WR. Better than Sex Panther, 76% of the time, every time.
OchoCinco, Irvin, 76%
Reggie Wayne, 73%
T.O., 72%
Moss, I. Bruce, 71%
Holt, Harrison, 69%
Rod Smith, 68%
Jimmy Smith, Fitzgerald, 66%
Andre Reed, C Carter, 65%
Steve Smith, 64%
Rice, Hines Ward, 63%
-
Catch %. Irvin is one of 9 receivers #T6 with 61%.
Hines Ward, Rice, 66%
Harrison, 65%
Reggie Wayne, 63%
T. Holt, 62%
A. Reed, Fitzgerald, C Carter, T.O., Jimmy Smith, Bruce, Rod Smith, Steve Smith, Irvin 61%
Moss, 60%
OchoCinco, 57%
Method...By totaling the Rate Statistics, per statistic, I subtracted the player's actual metric from the average of all 16 WRs, then added them together. For example, Rice's 15.5 YPC is 8% higher than the average 14.4, so he got +8 points. Ochocinco's Catch % is 8% lower than the average, so he got -8 points. Did this for all four Rate Stats and totaled them.
---------------
SECTION 1B (RATE STATISTICS, WITH TDs)
Now being completely fair and adding in TDs-per-Reception,
Irvin drops significantly, but he's still #6. When T.O., Moss and Rice screw the bell-curve by averaging ~1TD-per-game, making eleven (11) other WRs lose points. Overall rankings by Total Points with TDs:
Moss, 76
T.O., 69
Rice, 60
M. Harrison, 11
I. Bruce, 10
Irvin, 1
OchoCinco, -4
T. Holt, -9
Reg Wayne, -15
Andre Reed, -17
Steve Smith, -19
Rod Smith, -25
Cris Carter, -27
Fitzgerald, -34
Jimmy Smith, -35
Hines Ward, -41
----------------
SECTION 2 (BOX SCORE STATS)
No more rate statistics, just totals of their box score stats. The average 16-game season statline for our Top 16 WRs is 95 catches, 1360 yards, 10 TDs. NOTE: Some stats are inflated because I extrapolated stats over 16 full games (ie TO rarely played a full 16).
While I prefer the above section for Rates, cumulative stats is also important to see the whole picture, especially for this upper tier group where the Catch % variance is quite consistent. These stats reveal how a WR was used, indicated by the difference in opportunities (ie Targets).
Overall, Irvin still finishes with #7, being penalized for his high YPC (thus less receptions) and, of course, TDs. This is where TD-machines shine (TO, Moss, Rice)...look at the dropoff after Rice here.
T.O., 75
Moss, 73
Rice, 65
Harrison, 26
I Bruce, 1
Holt, -1
Irvin, -5
OchoCinco, -9
Reggie Wayne, -14
Steve Smith, -21
C Carter, -22
Rod Smith, -29
Fitzgerald, -30
Jimmy Smith, -31
Andre Reed, -33
Hines Ward, -45
-
TDs. We knew it would be bad, but not as bad as I thought.
Irvin is deadlast, #T14 with 7 TDs per season, but he’s only a TD or 2 from being middle of the pack. Later, I might run a hypothetical to see Irvin’s rank after bumping up his TDs by one.
TO, 16
Moss, 15
Rice, 14
Harrison, 13
C Carter, 12
Fitzgerald, Holt, Bruce, OchoCinco, 9
Reg Wayne, Rod Smith, Steve Smith, Hines Ward 8
Jimmy Smith, Andre Reed, Irvin, 7
-
Receptions.
Irvin rank #14 with 88 receptions (ironically). Although low, this is why YPC and Catch % matter. Makes sense as Cowboys never ran WR screens.
Harrison, 108
Holt, 105
Fitzgerald, 100
Jimmy Smith, 100
C Carter, T.O., Rice, 99
Reg Wayne, 96
Randy Moss, Steve Smith, 93
Hines Ward, 91
Rod Smith, OchoCinco, 90
Irvin, 88
I. Bruce, 86
Andre Reed, 77
-
Yards.
Irvin is middle of pack at #8, which speaks to his higher YPC since he was #14 in Receptions. This six-spot jump is the highest from Receptions-to-Yards. Conversely, look how far down Cris Carter and Fitzgerald drop.
Holt, 1566
Rice, 1529
T.O., 1484
Moss, 1480
Harrison, 1470
Jimmy Smith, 1434
Steve Smith, 1385
Irvin, 1370
OchoCinco, 1358
Fitzgerald, 1334
Reg Wayne, 1319
I Bruce, 1318
Rod Smith, 1254
Cris Carter, 1198
Hines Ward, 1118
Andre Reed, 1104