Sturm: NFL 100 - At No. 29, Emmitt Smith did what he did for longer and better than anyone

[Simpleton]

Irvin was definitely better than almost all of these modern day WR's who put up inflated stats as the game and rules moved more towards the passing game.

I'm talking guys like Holt, Reggie Wayne, Ward, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith and so forth.

He's obviously below the Rice/Moss tier (maybe Calvin Johnson?) but probably at the top of the next tier with guys like Harrison, Owens, Julio, Fitzgerald and so forth.

 

[ravidubey]

Moss, Owens, Rice, Irvin

You won’t do better. First two are the most talented and damned hard workers, and the next two were champions who worked even harder.

 

[data]

Moss, Owens, Rice, Irvin

You won’t do better. First two are the most talented and damned hard workers, and the next two were champions who worked even harder.

To build a franchise, though, if I had the luxury to pick from a bucket of great ones, I’d drop T.O. since dude can’t stay on a team for longer than three years it seems. How does one get thrown off three teams while in his prime? I’ll take a lower tier WR like Isaac Bruce if I have this franchise for seven or so seasons.

I mention this as an excuse to specifically prop Irvin into your Top 3.;)

 

[data]

He's obviously below the Rice/Moss tier (maybe Calvin Johnson?) but probably at the top of the next tier with guys like Harrison, Owens, Julio, Fitzgerald and so forth.

If I dont lose my mojo on this project, I’ll add Julio, Megatron, Antonio Brown, Deandre Hopkins.

I just wish I had Air Yards and YAC to further breakdown the stats

 

[Cotton]

Fuck it. Since I’m betting Irvin doesn’t get his due from The Athletic, I’ll state the case for Michael Irvin. We all know his intangibles, so not going to get into it.

However, Irvin gets knocked down on the all-time GOAT WRs because of his injuries and how they prevented Irvin from piling on past-his-prime yards. Furthermore, in addition to his career-ender at Veterans Stadium, he lost 16 games in his first three years (1988-1990). For perspective, not even including his early year injuries, but had he played three more seasons past his prime and added 2,500 garbage yards, Irvin would jump up from his current #28 to about #9. How much more inclusion would Irvin get at #9? A whole helluva lot. As evidence, Larry Fitzgerald often gets included in the goat conversation despite his stat compiler-ish career. Anyway, Irvin’s last two seasons he averaged 1,100 yards so I don't think 2,500 in three seasons is a stretch at all.

But I've never been a real fan of total career yardage stats...even if Irvin played longer, it wouldn’t have enhanced his stats for his prime (my most important criterion for greatness). So, away with the hypotheticals and let’s analyze reality. Here's my take on the greatness of Michael Irvin.

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TLDR. If you exclude TDs, Michael Irvin is one of the top 2 greatest WRs in efficiency from 1985 - 2010. Efficiency meaning production per Target (again, excluding TDs).

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I totaled the seven (7) best seasons for 16 WRs (during 1985 - 2010, 2010+ excluded cuz got passing insane, so no Megatron, Antonio Brown or Julio Jones).

Miscellaneous Non-Michael Irvin Observations:
1. Catch % (@Genghis Khan @Cowboysrock55 @Iamtdg ) doesn't vary much between the Top 15 WRs, only an 8% variance (between highest 66% - 61%, with lowest #16 Ochocinco being #57%).

2. 1st Down % has higher 21% variance (between highest 76% Ochocinco - 63% Hines Ward)

3. YPC also has a higher 20% variance between Top 14 WRs (then really dropping off at #15 Hines Ward and lowest #16 Cris Carter are a yard lower than #14 Fitzgerald).

4. YPT (Target) has the largest variance. Outliers are Jerry Rice #1 in his own tier (good) at 7% higher than #2 Moss. Also in his own tier (bad), the lowest #16 is Cris Carter with 9% lower than #15 Hines Ward. The middle 14 WRs have a 17% variance.

5. Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Jerry Rice averaged almost a TD-per-game in their Top 7 seasons. Amazing.

6. Torry Holt averaged the most receiving yards. Surprisingly, Jimmy Smith and Steve Smith ranked #6 and #7.

7. Berman/Tom Jackson nailed Cris Carter as he truly 'all he does is catch Touchdowns'. His only positive Rate Statistic was TDs and was below average in all other categories.

8. Why is Andre Reed in the Hall of Fame?

9a. Just comparing the below stats, there's there little separating Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Ochocinco. Compared to actual HOF consideration, OchoCinco deserves more consideration while Hines Ward should be crossed off. However, if I had to vote for one (statistically), Torry Holt gets it.

9b. Statistically, Hines Ward is like Cris Carter without the TDs, but Super Bowl MVP.

10. I deleted Tim Brown and Andre Johnson as they just lowered the averages.

------------------

How does Michael Irvin stack up?

SECTION 1A (RATE STATISTICS, WITHOUT TDs)

Now, we know Irvin suffers in comparison to the elite with TDs, so this section excludes TDs. How does Irvin compare when it comes to efficiency with the other Big Four Rate Stats -- Catch %, First Down %, Yards per Catch and Yards per Target? Long story short, Michael Irvin ranks #1. Honest to God, other than eliminating TDs (which is very significant and I account for later), I didn't doctor or stack the deck in favor for Irvin.

Michael Irvin, 24 points
Rice, 22
Moss, 17
Isaac Bruce, 14
T.O., 12
Torry Holt, 11
OchoCinco, 5
Reggie Wayne, 2
Marvin Harrison, 0
Steve Smith, -2
Jimmy Smith, -6
Andre Reed, -7
Rod Smith, -10
Larry Fitzgerald, -19
Hines Ward -24
Cris Carter -39

-YPC. @Cowboysrock55 loves YPC, right? Well if you thought Randy Moss was the king of YPC with all those sky-high bombs, you're correct with his 15.9 YPC. But Michael Irvin is #2 at 15.6 YPC, although the difference is somewhat negligible down to #8 Steve Smith at 14.9 YPC.
Moss, 15.9
Irvin, 15.6
Rice, 15.5
I. Bruce, 15.4
OchoCinco, 15.1
Holt, T.O., 15.0
Steve Smith, 14.9
Jimmy Smith, 14.4
Andre Reed, 14.3
Rod Smith, 13.9
Reg Wayne, Harrison, 13.7
Fitzgerald, 13.3
Hines Ward, 12.3
C Carter, 12.1

- YPT (Target). Michael Irvin is #T2 and the dropoff is at #7.
Rice, 10.2
Moss, Irvin, 9.5
I. Bruce, 9.4
T. Holt, 9.3
T.O., 9.2
Steve Smith, 9.1
Marvin Harrison, Andre Reed, Jimmy Smith, 8.8
Reg Wayne, OchoCinco, 8.6
Rod Smith, 8.4
Fitzgerald, 8.2
Hines Ward, 8.1
C Carter, 7.4

- 1st Down %. Irvin is #T1 and almost in his own Tier 1 with OchoCinco. Irvin may not have been prolific in the end zone, but this is why haters are sick of Irvin’s swordsman first down showboating move. He’s the highest rated first-down WR. Better than Sex Panther, 76% of the time, every time.
OchoCinco, Irvin, 76%
Reggie Wayne, 73%
T.O., 72%
Moss, I. Bruce, 71%
Holt, Harrison, 69%
Rod Smith, 68%
Jimmy Smith, Fitzgerald, 66%
Andre Reed, C Carter, 65%
Steve Smith, 64%
Rice, Hines Ward, 63%

- Catch %. Irvin is one of 9 receivers #T6 with 61%.
Hines Ward, Rice, 66%
Harrison, 65%
Reggie Wayne, 63%
T. Holt, 62%
A. Reed, Fitzgerald, C Carter, T.O., Jimmy Smith, Bruce, Rod Smith, Steve Smith, Irvin 61%
Moss, 60%
OchoCinco, 57%

Method...By totaling the Rate Statistics, per statistic, I subtracted the player's actual metric from the average of all 16 WRs, then added them together. For example, Rice's 15.5 YPC is 8% higher than the average 14.4, so he got +8 points. Ochocinco's Catch % is 8% lower than the average, so he got -8 points. Did this for all four Rate Stats and totaled them.
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SECTION 1B (RATE STATISTICS, WITH TDs)

Now being completely fair and adding in TDs-per-Reception, Irvin drops significantly, but he's still #6. When T.O., Moss and Rice screw the bell-curve by averaging ~1TD-per-game, making eleven (11) other WRs lose points. Overall rankings by Total Points with TDs:
Moss, 76
T.O., 69
Rice, 60
M. Harrison, 11
I. Bruce, 10
Irvin, 1
OchoCinco, -4
T. Holt, -9
Reg Wayne, -15
Andre Reed, -17
Steve Smith, -19
Rod Smith, -25
Cris Carter, -27
Fitzgerald, -34
Jimmy Smith, -35
Hines Ward, -41

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SECTION 2 (BOX SCORE STATS)

No more rate statistics, just totals of their box score stats. The average 16-game season statline for our Top 16 WRs is 95 catches, 1360 yards, 10 TDs. NOTE: Some stats are inflated because I extrapolated stats over 16 full games (ie TO rarely played a full 16).

While I prefer the above section for Rates, cumulative stats is also important to see the whole picture, especially for this upper tier group where the Catch % variance is quite consistent. These stats reveal how a WR was used, indicated by the difference in opportunities (ie Targets).

Overall, Irvin still finishes with #7, being penalized for his high YPC (thus less receptions) and, of course, TDs. This is where TD-machines shine (TO, Moss, Rice)...look at the dropoff after Rice here.
T.O., 75
Moss, 73
Rice, 65
Harrison, 26
I Bruce, 1
Holt, -1
Irvin, -5
OchoCinco, -9
Reggie Wayne, -14
Steve Smith, -21
C Carter, -22
Rod Smith, -29
Fitzgerald, -30
Jimmy Smith, -31
Andre Reed, -33
Hines Ward, -45

- TDs. We knew it would be bad, but not as bad as I thought. Irvin is deadlast, #T14 with 7 TDs per season, but he’s only a TD or 2 from being middle of the pack. Later, I might run a hypothetical to see Irvin’s rank after bumping up his TDs by one.
TO, 16
Moss, 15
Rice, 14
Harrison, 13
C Carter, 12
Fitzgerald, Holt, Bruce, OchoCinco, 9
Reg Wayne, Rod Smith, Steve Smith, Hines Ward 8
Jimmy Smith, Andre Reed, Irvin, 7

- Receptions. Irvin rank #14 with 88 receptions (ironically). Although low, this is why YPC and Catch % matter. Makes sense as Cowboys never ran WR screens.
Harrison, 108
Holt, 105
Fitzgerald, 100
Jimmy Smith, 100
C Carter, T.O., Rice, 99
Reg Wayne, 96
Randy Moss, Steve Smith, 93
Hines Ward, 91
Rod Smith, OchoCinco, 90
Irvin, 88
I. Bruce, 86
Andre Reed, 77

- Yards. Irvin is middle of pack at #8, which speaks to his higher YPC since he was #14 in Receptions. This six-spot jump is the highest from Receptions-to-Yards. Conversely, look how far down Cris Carter and Fitzgerald drop.
Holt, 1566
Rice, 1529
T.O., 1484
Moss, 1480
Harrison, 1470
Jimmy Smith, 1434
Steve Smith, 1385
Irvin, 1370
OchoCinco, 1358
Fitzgerald, 1334
Reg Wayne, 1319
I Bruce, 1318
Rod Smith, 1254
Cris Carter, 1198
Hines Ward, 1118
Andre Reed, 1104

Damn fine work, my friend.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Moss, Owens, Rice, Irvin

You won’t do better. First two are the most talented and damned hard workers, and the next two were champions who worked even harder.

Irvin > Owens

 

[ravidubey]

Irvin > Owens

I get it. Irvin's a champion, but it would be disingenuous to say he didn't have his own baggage.

Irvin's kind of passionate leadership needed to be counterbalanced with strong coaching, otherwise you ended up with OL getting stabbed in the neck. His attitude towards 'normal' folks who didn't party at insane levels (not named Troy) like Robert Jones was akin to hazing and really got stale by the late 90's.

I think Irvin personally chased Jones off the team, for example, hazing him in much the way Owens did Jeff Garcia in SF.

 

[Genghis Khan]

but it would be disingenuous to say he didn't have his own baggage.

True. But he was really loyal to his team and truly wanted to win.

 

[Smitty]

I was disappointed he didn’t make the All Decade Team, but he wasn’t gonna best Randall McDaniel, Larry Allen, Bruce Matthews. Steve Wisniewski got the last spot

Yeah but he was right there in the next tier after those names.

 

[Smitty]

Tuinei, Newton and Stepnoski were all obviously very good during that run, and the line itself kind of had a "whole that's greater than the parts" vibe, but my point is that people talk about Emmitt like he isn't even a top 5-10 RB of all time even though his accomplishments and stats on the biggest stage are literally unprecedented.

It would be like saying Brady isn't the GOAT QB because of Belichick or their defenses (which I know some people argue idiotically) when his accomplishments just blow every other QB out of the water.

It's because that OL and their greatness is exaggerated to ridiculous proportions. It's not that they weren't great, it's that their dominance is completely overblown to minimize what Emmitt did.

Guys like Tuinei and Newton were literally starting games in Dallas for about 5 years before Emmitt showed up, if these guys were such irresistible studs that any RB could dominate behind why were we a middling team with a talent like Walker running behind them (and putting up ok but not great stats)?

Why is it that only once between 1992-1997 did a non-Emmitt RB average even 4 YPC despite various guys getting around 50 or so carries each year?

Why is it that Derrick Lassic put up 127 yards on 35 carries (3.6 YPC) with our entire OL in place in 93 when Emmitt held out while we went 0-2? Only to have Emmitt come back and pop off for his highest YPC of his career (5.3)?

I'm not saying the OL as it existed at that point in time wasn't great or even in consideration for one of the best ever, it's that the perception of them as this inevitable force of nature that carried Emmitt for 10 years is preposterous, especially when they weren't necessarily all together during their peak for that long.

Allen didn't even come around until 1994, Williams was in the car accident that same year and was never the same, Stepnoski was gone in 1995, at which point Tuinei and Newton were 34 and 35 years old. Allen's dominance didn't even line up with when those other guys were at their peak, and once he got to his peak he was playing with like a rookie Flozell Adams and a 40 year old Nate Newton while Emmitt was still churning out 1300-1400 yard seasons at nearly the age of 30.

Well as Geng already said Tuinei converted from DL. I don't know why Newton took longer, but my suspicion is he was never bad, he was probably one of the only good players on a bad line early in his career, but I wasn't really paying that much attention in 1987.

I'm just saying, in 1992 the line was Tuinei - Newton - Stepnoski - Gesek - Williams.

Stepnoski is on the All Decade team and is probably a Hall of Famer some day. Williams definitely is if not for his knee injury, in fact, before that he was probably on pace to be the SECOND best OL of the 90s behind Larry Allen. He kicked the ass of the best DL of the decade every time they faced, Reggie White. Newton was, as I said, a legit Pro Bowler. Tuinei and Gesek were "merely" solid players but both way above average. In 1993, the line was the same except swapping Gogan for Gesek.

By 1994, Larry Allen joins the squad (albeit with Erik Williams out for his knee). Stepnoski, Newton and Tuinei all make/continue to make Pro Bowls.

In 1995, Stepnoski is swapped out for ANOTHER multi time Pro Bowler in Ray Donaldson at center, but Erik Williams returns and is still Pro Bowl form. Tuinei, Newton, Donaldson, and Allen all make the Pro Bowl and Williams probably should have. This is probably the peak - every single OL there is a Pro Bowler. Tuinei POSSIBLY on reputation/team recognition, but the other four are all All-Decade, All-Pro, or multi-time Pro Bowlers.

I mean, there are arguments maybe for the Redskins of the 80s or Raiders of the 70s, but that's kinda it. The Dallas OL is right there in dominance with those groups.

 

[data]

There’s no shame in Cowboys having the greatest OL of all-time.

If having an awesome OL is all it takes to elevate other skill position flapjacks to HoFers, it would been copycatted.

 

[Sheik]

I’d take Cris Carter.

 

[data]

I ran the numbers again, but this time averaging the Prime 5 seasons (7 seasons was yesterday).

SECTION 1A
- Irvin remains #1 for Rate Stats without TDs, but now he's almost in his own tier. Randy Moss #2 and Rice #3 in the second tier...then it drops off significantly to Torry Holt.

SECTION 1B
- For Rate Stats with TDs, this Prime 5 really boosts Irvin because it eliminated his 1998 Season with only 1 TD, so his average TDs-per-season jumps. As @Simpleton and @ravidubey mention below, this shows Irvin firmly #4 behind Moss, Rice and T.O.

- This exercise elevates Randy Moss to Secretariat levels. Wow. His first 3 seasons and the 23TD Patriots season are crazy.

SECTION 2
- For Box Score, again, Moss is just a monster with his Prime 5 with a Secretariat lead for his own tier. Rice #2 and T.O. #3 for second tier and then Marvin Harrison #4, Irvin #5 and Torry Holt #6 make the third tier.

My final observations:
1. With TDs, Randy Moss, Rice and T.O. are definitely Tier 1. Marvin Harrison, Irvin, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Reggie Wayne is second tier.
2. Without TDs, Michael Irvin's 1991-1995 performance in efficiency is absolutely neglected by journalists and football fans, including me. It would've surprised me if his seasons ranked among Rice and Moss, but Irvin actually surpasses them. Where he especially stands out is his 1st down %. Although his Catch % is middle of the pack, more of each of his catches consistently went for 1st downs (#1)...just churning out 15 yards after 15 yards, but rarely taking them to the house with 50 yard YAC. Without doing this exercise, this is how I would've described Irvin, so it's cool that this exercise supports my recollection watching all those games -- just Michael Irvin skinny post after skinny post after deep out after deep out. No little slants or quick outs or WR screens.
3. It was difficult determining the Prime 5 for many of the 16 receivers. Some seasons had more TDs while other seasons had more yards or Catch % and what not. Definitely easier determining the Prime 7 seasons, which speaks to the longevity of consistent production of these WRs. I could tell, though, if I upped it to Prime 9 seasons, many receivers would suffer, Irvin included. You could almost cut the drastic production cutoff for most of these cream of the crop WRs at 7 seasons with a knife.

----

NOTE: Instead of 16 WRs, I also ran the numbers for the Top 10 WRs, thinking that the bottom 6 were screwing up the averages. It didn't make much of a difference. The tiers were still distinct with Moss, Rice and TO at Tier 1. Irvin, Harrison, Bruce, Holt and Wayne at Tier 2 and OchoCinco, Steve Smith flip-flopping #9 and #10.

He's obviously below the Rice/Moss tier (maybe Calvin Johnson?) but probably at the top of the next tier with guys like Harrison, Owens, Julio, Fitzgerald and so forth.

Moss, Owens, Rice, Irvin

You won’t do better. First two are the most talented and damned hard workers, and the next two were champions who worked even harder.

 

[Genghis Khan]

The tiers were still distinct with Moss, Rice and TO at Tier 1. Irvin, Harrison, Bruce, Holt and Wayne at Tier 2

What's striking here to me is that all of those WRs were in very pass oriented offenses.

Except for Irvin.

Great job again Phil. Props.

 

[data]

What's striking here to me is that all of those WRs were in very pass oriented offenses.

Except for Irvin.

Great job again Phil. Props.

Thanks. Now, if we were to have this goat WR conversation outside of our Cowboys corner, how much “but but but surrounding cast inflated his numbers” blathering would there be to denigrate Irvin’s numbers?

More importantly, how legitimate would this argument be? An OL and Moose has a more significant relationship with a RB than a WR; A WR’s production is more isolated. Sure it can be argued that Novacek and Emmitt kept the safety from doubling Irvin and OL allowed Aikman comfortability to throw precision passes, but can anyone say Irvin had the plushiest situation of all WRs, ala Emmitt?

While Irvin was fortunate, I don’t think you can single out Irvin like many do for Emmitt. Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward Andre Reed all had just as WR-friendly situations, if not more so.

The ‘Barry surrounded by trash’ argument is probably most applicable to Tim Brown and Steve Smith and partially to Fitzgerald, Randy Moss/Cris Carter (depending on your perspective of Culpepper, Cunningham and George).

Back to Irvin, any ‘surrounding cast’ argument can be dismantled by the type of metrics Irvin produced. For Emmitt, the naysayers will proclaim that Emmitt, for all the Pro Bowl blocking he received, had a rather unspectacular YPC. However, my earlier research shows Irvin’s YPC and YPT are #1 or #2. Furthermore, Irvin’s 1st Down % stretches out those YPC stats to show that Irvin consistently succeeded at the toughest catches downfield, not dinks and dunks. Don't tell me Larry Allen was blocking the CB1 shadowing Irvin.

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My second big Irvin project here is regarding game-to-game production. Taking the Prime 5 seasons for the top 10 WRs, which WRs were boom-or-bust (disappear or blowout) or consistent (always over 70 yards). Michael Irvin was top tier in consistent game-to-game production, but lowest tier in having blowout games.

TLDR. Not only is Irvin one of the most consistent producers per catch (#1 in 1st Down %), but this research shows he's also among the most consistent game-to-game performers, too. Very reliable getting 70-120 yards game-to-game, but Irvin's cutoff was 120 yards as he rarely surpassed 120 yards in comparison to the other top tier WRs.

NOTE: This specific exercise is better to look at the same WR across the categories, rather than comparing WRs to each other.

Games with 30+ Yards (Averaged over 16 Game Season)
Rice 15.2
T.O. 15.1
OchoCinco, Irvin, Holt 15.0
Bruce, Harrison 14.8
Wayne 14.6
Moss 14.2
Steve Smith 14.1

Games with 50+ Yards
Holt 13.7
OchoCinco 13.2
Harrison 12.8
T.O. 12.7
Bruce 12.4
Rice 12.4
Irvin 12.2
Moss 11.9
Wayne 11.6
Steve Smith 11.5

Games with 70+ Yards
Marvin Harrison 11.6
Torry Holt, Jerry Rice 10.8
Michael Irvin 10.5
Randy Moss 10.3
OchoCinco 10.2
Terrell Owens 10.0
Isaac Bruce 9.4
Reggie Wayne 8.8
Steve Smith 8.7

Games with 80+ Yards
Harrison 10.2
Holt 9.8
Moss 9.6
Irvin 9.5
Rice 9.4
T.O. 9.1
Bruce 8.6
Steve Smith 8.3
OchoCinco 7.8
Wayne 7.6

Games with 90+ Yards
Harrison 9.2
T.O. 8.4
Holt 8.1
Moss 8.0
Irvin 7.9
Rice 7.8
Bruce 7.6
Steve Smith 7.0
OchoCinco 6.4
Wayne 5.6

Games with 100+ Yards
Harrison 7.8
Moss 7.2
Rice 7.0
Irvin 6.8
Holt 6.6
Steve Smith 6.4
T.O. 6.2
I Bruce 5.2
R Wayne 4.8
OchoCinco 4.2

Games with 110+ Yards
Holt, Harrison, 6.0
Moss 5.9
Rice 5.8
Steve Smith 5.8
Irvin 4.9
T.O. 4.7
Bruce 4.0
Wayne 4.0
OchoCinco 3.4

Games with 120+ Yards
Holt 5.2
Harrison 5.0
Moss 4.9
Rice 4.8
Steve Smith 4.5
T.O. 4.0
Irvin, I Bruce, R Wayne 3.2
OchoCinco 2.6

Games with 140+ Yards
Rice 4.2
Harrison 2.8
Moss 2.7
Steve Smith 2.6
Holt 2.5
T.O. 2.4
Irvin, I Bruce 1.8
Reg Wayne 1.6
OchoCinco 1.2

Games with 150+ Yards
Rice 3.4
Holt 2.3
T.O. 2.2
Steve Smith, Moss 2.1
Bruce 1.8
Harrison 1.6
Irvin, Wayne 1.2
OchoCinco 1.0

Games with 160+ Yards
Rice 2.6
T.O. 2.0
Holt 1.9
Steve Smith 1.7
I Bruce 1.6
Moss 1.2
R Wayne, OchoCinco 1.0
Irvin, Harrison 0.8

Games with 175+ Yards
Rice, I Bruce 1.0
T.O., Steve Smith 0.9
OchoCinco 0.8
Holt, Moss, R Wayne 0.6
Irvin, Harrison, 0.2

Observations:

• Rice is top tier in every category. Amazing. Never disappears and has the most blowup games, too.
• Moss is the most boom-or-okay-game of the Elite 3 (Rice, T.O. Moss). He's more prone to get less than 70 yards than the other two, but if he hits 70 yards, there's little in-between and he's getting 120 yards. Kinda makes sense...he'll get that 50 yard bomb attempt per game. If he gets it, or doesn't get it makes the difference.
• Isaac Bruce is the Prince of Boom games. If he goes over 100+ yards, he's prone to go way past 100 yards.
• Not shown here, but Steve Smith was an outlier with the most disappear games (<20 yards). While other 9 WRs essentially never posted <20 games, Steve Smith was good for 2-per-year. However, he is ranked quite high past 110+ games. Most Boom-or-Bust of these WRs.
• Marvin Harrison is similar to Michael Irvin with game-to-game consistency, but rare blowout games. But Harrison ranks higher Irvin in virtually every category and had a higher dropoff point of 140 yards.
• Torry Holt's dropoff point is after 120 yards, but he's really consistent delivering 100-120 yards per-game.
• OchoCinco won't disappear, but has low dropoff point at 80 yards.
• Amazing durability by these 10 WRs. Out of 800 games, only 19 missed games. That's 98% availability.

 

[Cotton]

Thanks. Now, if we were to have this goat WR conversation outside of our Cowboys corner, how much “but but but surrounding cast inflated his numbers” blathering would there be to denigrate Irvin’s numbers?

More importantly, how legitimate would this argument be? An OL and Moose has a more significant relationship with a RB than a WR; A WR’s production is more isolated. Sure it can be argued that Novacek and Emmitt kept the safety from doubling Irvin and OL allowed Aikman comfortability to throw precision passes, but can anyone say Irvin had the plushiest situation of all WRs, ala Emmitt?

While Irvin was fortunate, I don’t think you can single out Irvin like many do for Emmitt. Jerry Rice, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward Andre Reed all had just as WR-friendly situations, if not more so.

The ‘Barry surrounded by trash’ argument is probably most applicable to Tim Brown and Steve Smith and partially to Fitzgerald, Randy Moss/Cris Carter (depending on your perspective of Culpepper, Cunningham and George).

Back to Irvin, any ‘surrounding cast’ argument can be dismantled by the type of metrics Irvin produced. For Emmitt, the naysayers will proclaim that Emmitt, for all the Pro Bowl blocking he received, had a rather unspectacular YPC. However, my earlier research shows Irvin’s YPC and YPT are #1 or #2. Furthermore, Irvin’s 1st Down % stretches out those YPC stats to show that Irvin consistently succeeded at the toughest catches downfield, not dinks and dunks. Don't tell me Larry Allen was blocking the CB1 shadowing Irvin.

--------

My second big Irvin project here is regarding game-to-game production. Taking the Prime 5 seasons for the top 10 WRs, which WRs were boom-or-bust (disappear or blowout) or consistent (always over 70 yards). Michael Irvin was top tier in consistent game-to-game production, but lowest tier in having blowout games

TLDR. Not only is Irvin one of the most consistent producers per catch (#1 in 1st Down %), but this research shows he's also one of the most consistent game-to-game performers, too. One of the best always getting you around 100 yards, but Irvin's cutoff was 120 yards as he rarely surpassed 120 yards in comparison to the other top tier WRs.

Games with 70+ Yards (Averaged over 16 Game Season)
Marvin Harrison 11.6
Torry Holt, Jerry Rice 10.8
Michael Irvin 10.5
Randy Moss 10.3
OchoCinco 10.2
Terrell Owens 10.0
Isaac Bruce 9.4
Reggie Wayne 8.8
Steve Smith 8.7

Games with 100+ Yards
Harrison 7.8
Moss 7.2
Rice 7.0
Irvin 6.8
Holt 6.6
Steve Smith 6.4
T.O. 6.2
I Bruce 5.2
R Wayne 4.8
OchoCinco4.2

Games with 120+ Yards
Holt 5.2
Harrison 5.0
Moss 4.9
Rice 4.8
Steve Smith 4.5
T.O. 4.0
Irvin, I Bruce, R Wayne 3.2
OchoCinco 2.6

Games with 140+ Yards
Rice 4.2
Harrison 2.8
Moss 2.7
Steve Smith 2.6
Holt 2.5
T.O. 2.4
Irvin, I Bruce 1.8
Reg Wayne 1.6
OchoCinco 1.2

Games with 160+ Yards
Rice 2.6
T.O. 2.0
Holt 1.9
Steve Smith 1.7
I Bruce 1.6
Moss 1.2
R Wayne, OchoCinco 1.0
Irvin, Harrison 0.8

Games with 175+ Yards
Rice, I Bruce 1.0
T.O., Steve Smith 0.9
OchoCinco 0.8
Holt, Moss, R Wayne 0.6
Irvin, Harrison, 0.2

Observations:

• Isaac Bruce is the King of Boom-or-Bust (for top tier WRs). If he reaches 100 yards, watch out. OchoCinco and Steve Smith also Boom or Bust.
• Rice is top tier in every category. Amazing. Never disappears and has the most blowup games, too.
• Marvin Harrison and Irvin are quite similar with game-to-game consistency, but rare blowout games.
• Amazing durability by these 10 WRs. Out of 800 games, only 19 missed games. That's 98% availability.

Do you ever sleep?

Props, you magnificent bastard.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Now, if we were to have this goat WR conversation outside of our Cowboys corner, how much “but but but surrounding cast inflated his numbers” blathering would there be to denigrate Irvin’s numbers?

More importantly, how legitimate would this argument be?

Not at all.

As I've said before, you could make similar arguments for every single one of those guys.

If someone is going to use the triplets and the offensive line to diminish Irvin's accomplishments, then for consistency's sake they have to also diminish:

Rice, who played with Montana, Young, Roger Craig, Ricky Waters, and a very good offensive line. And played in a very pass friendly West coast offense.

Moss and Chris Carter, who played together on one of the best WR trios of all time and a very good offensive line and running back in Robert Smith.

Moss again, who later played with Tom Brady and another very good offensive line. (And by the way didn't do shit in Oakland in between.)

Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, who played with a very good offensive line, Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, and the Greatest Show on Turf, one of the most pass friendly systems of all time.

Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, who played with each other, Peyton Manning, a very good offensive line, and Edgerrin James.

Etc. We could do this all day. It's one of the most specious arguments in existence.



Usually it goes something like,

"Irvin was so overrated. Look at who he played with."

"Well I agree Aikman was great but..."

"Aikman was so overrated. That offensive line made him."

"I mean, I agree the offensive line was great but..."

"That offensive line was overrated. Anyone could look good blocking for Emmitt Smith."

"I mean, I agree Emmitt was great but..."

"Emmitt was so overrated. Look at who he played with."



It's circular logic. Living near Philly I've heard these types of arguments many times and it's not worth the oxygen it wastes.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Not only is Irvin one of the most consistent producers per catch (#1 in 1st Down %), but this research shows he's also one of the most consistent game-to-game performers, too. One of the best always getting you around 100 yards, but Irvin's cutoff was 120 yards as he rarely surpassed 120 yards in comparison to the other top tier WRs.

My memories of Irvin are almost always for first downs. He had an incredible knack for it.

Consistency for offensive skill players is really important (especially running backs) and I think underrated.

The woo plays are nice, but the defense usually doesn't give up many of those. You have to consistently win downs. For a RB I believe "winning" the down means at least 4 yards (because if you theoretically only run the ball, 4 yards every time means you get a first down but 3 yards means you're punting), or getting a first down (if less than 4), or getting a TD. For WRs (because of the inherent risks passing the ball, like an incompletion, sack or interception) it's getting at least 10 yards or a TD. Irvin was great at almost always getting those 10 yards.

In Irvin's prime, the Cowboys basically shut down the passing game when they had a second half lead so it makes sense Irvin rarely went over 120 yards. Aikman's numbers suffer a similar fate.

 

[ZeroClub]

There are great athletes who put up big numbers, but who don't contribute much beyond that to their teams. And there are others who provide big numbers and "intangibles" (e.g., leadership, inspiring confidence, increasing intensity of teammates, etc.).

The numbers are important and quite relevant, but they don't tell the whole story.

Guys like Staubach and Emmitt Smith offered exceptional intangibles that differentiated them from most others across the league.

Emmitt had 168 yards on 32 carries, 10 receptions for 61 yards, and one touchdown in his separated shoulder game in the Meadowlands. It was a very strong day statistically speaking, but those numbers only hint at what he did and how much it meant to his team. Look only at his great numbers and you overlook his greatness. This applies to his career too.

Back in the 90's I used to think that Barry Sanders was the better (more athletically gifted) running back, but that Emmitt was the better football player.

Irvin had some important (decidedly but not entirely positive) intangibles too. Moss and Rice may have been better WRs, but I think Irvin was the better football player.

 

[data]

I decided to look at 1996 closer because Irvin had a remarkable consecutive 5YR stretch (1991-1995) that rivals the best 5 years of Moss, T.O. & Rice. How significant of a loss were those 5 games in 1996 due to suspension? Extrapolating his 11 games to 16 games, his statline:

Actual: 11 Games - 64 catches, 962 yards, 2 TDs.
Hypothetical: 16 Games - 93 catches, 1,400 yards, 3 TDs with 65 1st downs (70%) and 153 Targets (61% Catch).

------------------

• Overall, unfortunately, 1996 is a significant dropoff from his 1991-1995 prime in terms of the Rate Stats. Irvin was not on pace to having one of his greatest ever. However, his adjusted 1,400 yards is noteworthy.
• The biggest benefit is just the aesthetics of having another 1,000 yard season which would've connected eight (8) consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. This just looks nice on paper, though; It's not stratosphere remarkable as this has been accomplished by Cris Carter, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Tim Brown and Rice. Interestingly, Moss and T.O. never hit eight straight seasons, either -- Moss' Raiders tenure and T.O.'s Philadelphia suspension from the McNabb dispute.
• However, 1,400 yards is elite production vs 1,000 yards. This would've been Irvin's fifth season of +1,300, which only puts him behind Rice, Moss and Torry Holt.

• Just the next season from his 1991-1995 prime, his 70% 1st down % is a sharp dropoff from the Prime 77%.
• Catch % has slight drop from Prime 64% to 1996 61%.
• YPC was 15.0 which is inline with his Prime 15.8. An improvement from previous season 1995 14.4 YPC, in fact. However, his YPT does drop noticeably from Prime 10.1 to 1996 9.2.
• Only had 2TDs in 11 games, so it only extrapolates to 3TDs. But 1995 he had 10TDs and 1997 he had 9TDs. Would those 1996 five games seen him go on a TD tear? Probably not. Most likely scenario he would've had ~5 TDs.