Election Chatter Thread...

[jsmith6919]

 

[bbgun]

It's historically anti-R in the modern era, including 2016. Don't see how I should expect that to flip at this point with the remaining votes to be counted there.

It's a state known for gambling and legalized prostitution -- hardly GOP family values.

 

[boozeman]

Let the shitshow begin.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

at least the Trump derangement will die down and in no time out all, he wont be mentioned anymore

It's not going anywhere. Everything from every new virus case to lousy economic news will be blamed on him.

 

[Smitty]

Wow, where to start?

What is there left to accomplish? How about appointing more reasonable judges who don't use their seat as a platform to enforce their own views?

Trump has appointed 216 federal judge positions, there are only 66 remaining vacancies today. Yes obviously he could get more but he's appointed 216 out of a possible 282, and frankly, I bet cocaine mitch gets more through before the new inauguration (there are 41 nominees pending for those 66 vacancies). There are only 890 authorized judgeships in the entire federal judiciary, so way less than 10% swing even if he fills no more. Also.... a Republican controlled Senate means Biden will not be able to put in whoever he wants. We very well likely again see McConnell preventing Biden from getting in many nominees, just like he did Obama, and thus the next R president will get another tidal wave like Trump did.

Obviously there will be more openings in the next 4 years but Trump has completely remade the federal judiciary. Do I want 100% conservative justices? Let's play devils advocate and say "yes," but come on, within reason, he's tapped out the ability to impact the courts much further. They are already completely overhauled in favor of team red.

There's not much to gain here. It's been done.

All that regulation he cut? It's coming right back. And shitty Obamacare isn't going anywhere.

Obamacare is already defunded and toothless. They'd have to pass more legislation to fix it - but they can't, because they don't have the Senate like they did in 2010 when they passed Obamacare.

And yeah, I'm sure Biden will add back regulation. But

1) that is going to happen unless you simply never plan to lose another election again, which is unreasonable.
2) Biden lacks the energy to attack this issue as Trump did, it was one of Trump's main objectives in winning. Biden's main objective is remembering what he had for breakfast or the name of his children. He will not be as effective as Trump in re-rolling regulation because he simply is not as effective an executive at this point.

Also, how in the world does a Trump loss make a win in 2024 more likely? The incumbent usually wins... unless an economy-wrecking virus hits at exactly the wrong time.

If Trump won this time there is no incumbent in 2024. On the flip side, the party in power for two terms almost ALWAYS loses. The sole exception in the last 80 years is Reagan-Bush, and that's cause Reagan was simply the best President, period, of that time span. Reagan was the Republican FDR who could have continued to win election after election if it had not been for his health (and the Constitutional amendment limiting terms to 2). Trump is not on Reagan's level. A Trump win in 2020 means a very, very likely Democrat win in 2024.

It's substantially more likely to see a one-term President that a three-term (or four-term) stay in power by a party: George HW Bush was 1 term, Jimmy Carter was 1 term, Gerald Ford never won an election, LBJ only ever won 1 election... and now Trump has (likely) only won 1 election.

On top of that, the economy is about to tank. We are about to see another housing recession. There are more people delinquent on their mortgages right now than the housing crash of 2008. Biden is very likely about to have a real shitty situation on his hand that people are going to remember and assign blame to him come 2024. If Trump won today, he would be the won getting that blame, and by proxy, Republicans, thereby decreasing their chances at winning in 2024. Instead, Biden and the Democrats will take that heat.... making it more likely that he's a Carter-like one term President. Guaranteed, of course not, but I am saying: the loss by Trump now makes winning in 2024 more likely than Trump winning right now.

How about any hope of putting some check on these propagandist tech companies? That's gone now, too.

Yeah, that sucks. I didn't say there were no downsides. I said, this MAY be better this way.

Hopefully you were just trying to be optimistic there.

I mean, if I could pick, of course I'd choose Trump as President now and probably would choose a Republican (or Libertarian) as President in 2024. But getting 2020 AND 2024 is extremely unlikely.

What is substantially more likely is winning one of those two elections.

Which would be better to win?

Well, given the shape of the federal judiciary, given the age of Clarence Thomas (likely to retire between 4-8 years but not necessarily in the next 4), given that Republicans are keeping the Senate, given that a Democrat administration is about to preside over a housing recession, given that we have Republican up and comers in Crenshaw and Haley and others who look primed for 2024 national spotlights, given that Biden is the most harmless Democrat you could possibly imagine right now (he's frankly a career insider who is "just happy to be here," and is mostly concerned with lining his pockets and his own prestige rather than any true radical policy goals), I am not all that frightened.

If I can only have one, I know that my answer is 2024.

It's never good, but if there has to be a candidate to lose to and a time to lose, this is it. Senile Joe is completely impotent.

 

[Smitty]

Exactly. You hear a lot about people leaving the state for political/social reasons... I suspect Arizona has a lot of ex-Californians who moved there not because they were unhappy, but because they simply couldn't afford Cali anymore.

And now are gonna turn Arizona into the same shitty place they left.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Fair enough... but as far as Joe being toothless, yes, a cogent Joe from years ago probably would have been pretty reasonable. But right now he's just a Weekend at Bernie's husk. They've already mentioned Bernie, Warren, Ellison, and much of the Obama crew coming back. They'll be the ones actually deciding things.

 

[Smitty]

The Wall, birthright citizenship, e-verify, the end of chain migration, more conservative judges at all levels, more trade deals that benefit the US, more deregulation, more purging of the Deep State (esp at intelligence agencies), more lawsuits against colleges that discriminate based on race, pulling troops out of Europe and South Korea, etc.

If the wall hasn't happened, it's not going to.

Birthright citizenship is a fantasy with the house as it is.

Conservative judges, as explained, are pretty much maxed out.

How is he going to end chain migration?

Obviously I would have liked for a Republican to stay in office to continue deregulation policies, and especially prefer Trump's foreign policy, but my point is, you can't have everything, and the better time to get another crack at continual power is probably losing now, having Biden not accomplish much, and then taking back '24 with an All Star.

 

[yimyammer]

It's not going anywhere. Everything from every new virus case to lousy economic news will be blamed on him.

I believe it will eventually, its currently EVERY. FUCKING.DAY on every talk show, twitter, Facebook, ad nauseam. I'm sick of hearing how Trump is the cause of every problem in the world, now they got their wish so I'll be on pins and needles as they usher in the coming Utopia

 

[yimyammer]

anyone see this?


I'm not seeing this reflected in the counts but I probably missed it, thats a 130,000+ swing in a tight race

 

[Genghis Khan]

Honest mistake, I'm sure.

 

[Smitty]

Fair enough... but as far as Joe being toothless, yes, a cogent Joe from years ago probably would have been pretty reasonable. But right now he's just a Weekend at Bernie's husk. They've already mentioned Bernie, Warren, Ellison, and much of the Obama crew coming back. They'll be the ones actually deciding things.

Well, Obama with a Republican Senate wasn't so terrible.

 

[Genghis Khan]

anyone see this?


I'm not seeing this reflected in the counts but I probably missed it, thats a 130,000+ swing in a tight race

Honest mistake, I'm sure.

 

[Smitty]

anyone see this?


I'm not seeing this reflected in the counts but I probably missed it, thats a 130,000+ swing in a tight race

Reuters has Shiawassee with the correct count (15731 - 5 digits not 6 digits) but Trump still down in the state by 50k votes.

 

[Sheik]

Twitter is going nuts. Still saying Trump will win Arizona.

If the Dems ran someone competent like Tulsi, we’d have a clear winner and none of this bullshit today.

Instead they run an obvious mush head.

 

[Sheik]

 

[ravidubey]

Arizona is the lynchpin. Michigan - Arizona - Wisconsin - Nevada. That's the clearest path to victory for Biden. Because the four of them land him exactly at 270.

And each of those states are close

 

[Sheik]

 

[bbgun]

probably fool's gold. and he'll need more than Zona to close the gap.

 

[Sheik]

probably fool's gold. and he'll need more than Zona to close the gap.

Probably so. I’m not saying I want this to be even closer, it’s just interesting to watch it unfold.

Fox was in a hurry to call Arizona, but held up Florida and Texas all night for what?