Cowboys Free Agency Thread

[Sheik]

Dez will be our slow, lumbering, non-separating, slot WR and you guys will have to like it.

 

[Genghis Khan]

why do you say he needs 90 catches? 63 is not 90

Because Jarwin had 31 last year. To replace witten's production, he'd have to catch witten's 63 PLUS maintain his own 31. Otherwise they have to make up for Jarwin's production. That makes 94 catches that Jarwin would have to produce.

Hence, SCHULTZ or someone has to step way up. Jarwin himself already has to step way up.

Honestly, this isn't a difficult concept. I suspect some of you are trying to defend your narratives about whether Witten was any good last year. That's irrelevant to the point that he produce a sizable number of catches that are now missing from the offense, same with Cobb. It's a big deal that they have no real answers for replacements right now.

 

[Genghis Khan]

You don't ever need to replace catches. You need to replace yards. When you average 8 yards a catch it's not that difficult to replace. You can replace those yards with far fewer catches because Witten did so little catching those passes.

I completely disagree.

You are severely underestimating how hard it is to get open and make catches. We've seen a zillion times over the years that a lot of guys can't can't consistently get open.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Because Jarwin had 31 last year. To replace witten's production, he'd have to catch witten's 63 PLUS maintain his own 31. Otherwise they have to make up for Jarwin's production. That makes 94 catches that Jarwin would have to produce.

Your logic is flawed considering based on Jarwins YPC he would produce Witten's yards with only 47 catches. You keep mentioning catches but a team doesn't need 10 catches to get a touchdown, they usually need 80 yards. If you can cover those 80 yards in 5 catches instead of 10, who cares? The production is still the same.

And yes Schultz will catch more balls by virtue of being on the field. If he is on the field I can promise you he makes more catches than last year and gets more yards. Or whoever the hell our second TE is next year.

Witten played 75% of offensive snaps last year. Jarwin played 38%.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I completely disagree.

You are severely underestimating how hard it is to get open and make catches. We've seen a zillion times over the years that a lot of guys can't can't consistently get open.

For a guy playing only 38% of snaps I'd say Jarwin got open a lot. Again, your attention is misplaced if you're worried about catches. It's really a meaningless statistic if yards don't come with those catches.

 

[data]

I completely disagree.

You are severely underestimating how hard it is to get open and make catches. We've seen a zillion times over the years that a lot of guys can't can't consistently get open.

27 of those 63 catches went for a 1st down. 42%

As a reference, Witten was ~55% first down conversion dieting his prime.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

27 of those 63 catches went for a 1st down

Catching a ball for 4 yards on third and 8 does you no good. I don't care about any of those catches.

 

[jsmith6919]

Nothing says we have to put those extra 30 catches toward a 2nd te, we are no longer locked in by Garrett's stubborn system. Maybe they let Pollard have those

 

[data]

For a guy playing only 38% of snaps I'd say Jarwin got open a lot. Again, your attention is misplaced if you're worried about catches. It's really a meaningless statistic if yards don't come with those catches.

Catching a ball for 4 yards on third and 8 does you no good. I don't care about any of those catches.

With 27 of those 63 catches going for first down, it’ll be interesting to see what happens on those other 36 this season. It’s be good to know how many of those 36 were on 3rd down.

With Dak Prescott, without Witten as a safe checkdown for punt, that could be good or bad...he scrambles more, forced downfield throws for INT, PI flags, incomplete or complete.

Most likely, I think it’ll be good because those 3rd down checkdowns will still happen, but they’ll at least go to Zeke or Pollard who will turn more of those into first down YAC. Dak will scramble a bit more. I don’t think Dak will force balls downfield.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Keep in mind also, all you guys that are arguing that Jarwin will magically double (or way more even) his career high in catches now that big bad Witten isn't "cock blocking" him.

Jarwin had all of 27 catches the year Witten wasn't here. What was the excuse then? He didn't suddenly have 60 plus.

I think it's plausible Jarwin doubles his production, but pretty unlikely and very foolhardy to expect or rely on it.

The point is, and it's a very real one whether you want to believe it or not, they lost of lot of black and white, cold hard factual production (witten and cobb) and have yet to reasonably replace it.

Maybe they could've replaced Witten with, say, Ebron and -gasp- actually upgraded the position.

Instead they seem determined to return the same group, minus the most productive of the group.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Nothing says we have to put those extra 30 catches toward a 2nd te, we are no longer locked in by Garrett's stubborn system. Maybe they let Pollard have those

THAT'S a good point. I'm guessing a lot of it will go to a rookie WR, but you're right that Pollard is pretty likely to see more production.

Considering they were looking at Sanders and now are looking at Dorsett it doesn't seem to be plan A, but there is a lot to be said for giving Pollard more touches.

Doesn't excuse, in mind, not brining in at least one additional quality WR/TE, but it could work out given we have a real offensive mind now.

I'm just frustrated that we appear determined to compete with the league with one arm tied behind our back.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Jarwin had all of 27 catches the year Witten wasn't here. What was the excuse then? He didn't suddenly have 60 plus.

Jarwin played 38% of snaps. Do you know what percentage he played in 2018? 35.8% of snaps.

Meanwhile Swaim got 47% of the snaps and got almost as many yards as Witten last year. That should tell you something. Schultz also got a lot more snaps in 2018 which is why he produced so much more than he did last year when he barely plays.

So yeah, it is a matter of playing more snaps. Assuming their plan is to make Jarwin the primary TE those numbers should jump up a lot. Any fucking schlub of a TE should be able to go for 500 yards while playing 75% of the snaps like Witten did.

 

[Rev]

Just sign Dez.

 

[data]

Our season’s in the toilet because we didn’t replace Witten. Gotcha.

 

[p1_]

Keep in mind also, all you guys that are arguing that Jarwin will magically double (or way more even) his career high in catches now that big bad Witten isn't "cock blocking" him.

Jarwin had all of 27 catches the year Witten wasn't here. What was the excuse then? He didn't suddenly have 60 plus.

I think it's plausible Jarwin doubles his production, but pretty unlikely and very foolhardy to expect or rely on it.

The point is, and it's a very real one whether you want to believe it or not, they lost of lot of black and white, cold hard factual production (witten and cobb) and have yet to reasonably replace it.

Maybe they could've replaced Witten with, say, Ebron and -gasp- actually upgraded the position.

Instead they seem determined to return the same group, minus the most productive of the group.

Between Witten and Cobb, the real subtraction is Cobb. That is yardage and production that needs to be “replaced”. I’m a fan of Pollard getting some of that action myself. Plus there will be a new WR3 who will get decent action, believe it . Your worries are exaggerated somewhat.
And you missed my edits about the 90 catches, even if I believe we don’t truly need that much from our TE group.

 

[Genghis Khan]

Our season’s in the toilet because we didn’t replace Witten. Gotcha.

That's very clearly not what I'm saying if you have a modicum of reading comprehension skills.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Between Witten and Cobb, the real subtraction is Cobb. That is yardage and production that needs to be “replaced”. I’m a fan of Pollard getting some of that action myself. Plus there will be a new WR3 who will get decent action, believe it . Your worries are exaggerated somewhat.
And you missed my edits about the 90 catches, even if I believe we don’t truly need that much from our TE group.

I agree, Cobb is the only real loss on offense. We will need to replace him but I hope it's in the draft.

 

[Genghis Khan]

It's funny because of lot of people sure seemed to prop my original post on this subject. Suddenly everyone is now off the rails about it since I had the audacity to suggest we should be replacing someone who was 3rd leading receiver last year and 4th in yardage. That's not nothing but the overarching point before the anti Witten circle jerk brigade stepped in was always that we've lost a lot of production across the board on both sides of the ball despite actually having plenty of cap space to prevent that from happening if we wanted to.

I don't know how the focus got on Witten other than agenda but that's far and away not the point.

The point is it's frustrating watching other teams get better while we sit with our thumb up our ass.

 

[data]

That's very clearly not what I'm saying if you have a modicum of reading comprehension skills.

Oh that’s right. Eric Ebron to the Steelers.

Now season’s in the toilet.

 

[boozeman]