The criteria for QBs generally is - and indeed should be - some combination of wins, playoff wins, super bowl wins, and stats. How each person weights one over another is a matter of debate, but I don't think it makes sense to divorce wins from a QB's performance. And it shouldn't be the sole criteria either.
I think Eli probably should be in the HOF but he's borderline and shouldn't be first ballot. To me, the argument in his favor is two fold. He's 7th all time in passing yards and he won 2 super bowls (and was SB MVP).
I think the comparison to Aikman isn't bad, but I do think Aikman separates himself in a couple ways.
One, and most obviously, 3 rings versus 2. Each ring puts you in a different tier. How many QBs have 3 or more? Montana, Brady, Bradshaw, Aikman...I can't think of any others.
Second, Eli spent most of his career in a passing offense in a passing era. Aikman played almost exclusively on a team that featured the all time leading rusher. It was a heavy running team. It skewed his touchdown and yardage stats.
Third, and I hate to invoke this, but the eye test. I'll leave that one at that.
I mostly agree with your take. Props.
For HOF induction, I’ll add that this player needs to have transcended the game in some way. Aikman was the most accurate passer they’ve ever seen, according to many. You still have draft prospects being called Aikman-like or the next Aikman. That’s an indicator of a lasting legacy. What did Eli uniquely bring to the table? Is Eli a standard that others get measured up to? I think Eli is largely forgotten.
I’ll emphasize your point and add that, especially for QBs, playoff performance gets extra-scrutiny and is damn near a requirement. You take out playoffs and Aikman isn’t close to being a Hall of Famer. You don’t emphasize playoff team success and Ken Anderson and Philip Rivers are HOFers. Aikman did it for three playoff runs - definitely breaks that threshold where you can almost disregard regular season stats or that he wasn’t elite for a longer period like 10 years. For Eli, is two playoff runs enough? Like you said, not as definitive as three rings and we’ll have to consider his performance more comprehensively.
I hate that all-time yardage stats get so much emphasis. To me, 7th all-time in passing yards means little, especially when it comes to the 21st century QBs. People discredit Emmitt all the time for hanging on his last five seasons which accounts for ~4,000 rushing yards, but it’s okay to count Eli’s final five season stats when he wasn’t a Top 10 QB? Pffff.
Overall, he had two great playoff runs. A memorable throw in each Super Bowl. That’s great. That’s awesome and they’ll be memorialized forever...but that’s what they are - great moments. It’s not enough to add up to a HOF career.
Maybe unfairly, but you have to look at the position distribution as well. The QB competition is so gluttonous for Eli’s era, it pushes Eli further down my list. You’ve got Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton and Brady already having their bust ready. Do we need Eli?
In the 90s, you have Aikman, Young and Favre. In the 80s, you have Elway, Marino, Montana, Kelly.
If I’m in Canton and I’m walking through the Hall, I’m spending a solid 5 minutes at each player’s bust and reviewing their story. However, It just feels like I’d spend 20 seconds at Eli’s, if he were inducted. “Ahh, that’s nice. David Tyree caught his prayer. What else did he do. Archie’s son and Peyton’s brother? Nice. Who’s next?”