Garrett Watch Thread...

lostxn

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Jason Garrett’s Stubbornness Likely To End His Cowboys Career
Brian Goff

Dallas Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett responds to questions after the loss to the Vikings.(AP ... [+]
ASSOCIATED PRESS
In spite of Sunday night’s loss to the Vikings, the Dallas Cowboys still sit atop the NFC East (by tiebreaker), hold the second best score differential in the NFC, and are projected as a 70% bet to make the playoffs by Football Outsiders. In the abstract, those facts would seem to solidify the head coach’s position, especially with a head coach holding a record of 82-61 in his 9th full season. But, with the Cowboys and their head coach, Jason Garrett, the details and the path to this position matter.

Garrett is on the last year of his current contract as his boss, Jerry Jones, has taken a wait-and-see approach to the season. Even though he clearly likes Garrett just by the fact that Garrett has lasted this long, Jones and his son, Stephen, are looking for more than just a playoff berth. The fact that the Cowboys are one of only a small number of teams not to make a conference championship since the mid 1990s only heightens this appetite. Their view, and that of many Cowboys fans, is that the team is loaded with talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball with the continuing development of QB Dak Prescott, a great receiver in Amari Cooper, a stellar offensive line, and one of the league’s top running backs in Ezekiel Elliott.

Whether one considers Vegas futures odds, Football Outsiders projections, or just the eyeball test of average fans, the Cowboys are unlikely to make the NFC Championship game, much less the Super Bowl this season. Although facing a relatively weak schedule of opponents so far, Dallas is only 5-4 and is only 1-3 against teams with winning records (plus a horrendous loss to the lowly Jets). None of that screams conference championship even to the most optimistic fan.

As his record attests, Garrett is not a coach-without-a-clue. He’s a bright guy with Princeton credentials. Insiders as well as outsiders with close access praise the internal culture of the team. Garrett has shown the ability to keep the team on track after disappointing seasons or losses. He’s known as a nice guy, too by all accounts.

He is also stubborn and limited in his flexibility. From day one as head coach (and even as offensive coordinator before that), he adopted an offensive philosophy colored by his participation as a backup QB on the Cowboys’ last great teams of the early to mid 1990s. That recipe revolved around a run-first approach with a great offensive line and a great running back in Emmitt Smith boosted by the highly efficient passing of Troy Aikmen. It’s a “were going to impose our will on you regardless of what you do” kind of approach.

The trouble is that it isn’t 1994. While an effective running game is still very useful in today’s pass-happy NFL, it is much more of a complementary dish than a main course, especially among the most successful teams (and not counting the college-modified offense of the Ravens). A team with a top notch defense such as the early 1990s Cowboys, the 2000 Ravens, the 2015 Broncos, or the current 49ers might get away with this, but the Cowboys defense is nothing special. The team usually needs plenty of points to win.

Garrett’s insistence on establishing and sticking with the run keeps putting them behind in games. The Cowboys habit of falling behind early in games is evidence of this stubbornness and its cost. It is especially costly against good teams. They fell behind Green Bay 24-0 and the Vikings 14-0, although both games were played at the Cowboys stadium. The prior week, the struggling Giants jumped out to a 12-3 lead. The Cowboys somehow managed to fall behind the Jets 21-3.

Sunday night, the inflexibility also mattered late in the game. With less than two minutes to play trailing by a touchdown, and with Prescott shredding Vikings defense, Garrett and his offensive coordinator reverted to the run on consecutive plays. I won’t go into the details of this and other strategic blunders in the Vikings game, given that the internet is full of that. It’s simply that this penchant for calling plays like it is 1994 is pervasive with Garrett regardless of the offensive coordinator.

Seemingly, Garrett hasn’t placed much weight on the methods by with the Patriots have reached the conference championship every year since 2000 (or maybe it just feels that way). Bill Belichick and his Patriots’ sustained success has come about because of their willingness to adapt their approach, sometimes substantially, to their personnel and to the other team (unlike what Belichick did in Cleveland). Yes, they have had Tom Brady, but over the past two decades, they have won with conservative offensive play and great defense, with balanced offensive play and good defense, and with throw-it-all-the-time offense and mediocre defense. That’s really the only way to sustain success in such a competitive league. Garrett’s unwillingness to adapt season-by-season, game-by-game, series-by-series, stands in stark contrast.

Letting Garrett go at the end of the season, if it happens, is no guarantee of improvement for the Cowboys. The number of coaches who can take a good roster and make it into a great team, other than by dumb luck, is small and hard to predict in advance. Yet, barring some turnaround in philosophy or some lucky bounces, it appears that Garrett’s inflexibility is leading, inevitably, toward that outcome.
 

shoop

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We haven’t made it to the conference championships in a long time and we are joined by only a couple of other teams. Yet the pats have done it for 19 years straight. Good lord.
 

NoDak

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We haven’t made it to the conference championships in a long time and we are joined by only a couple of other teams. Yet the pats have done it for 19 years straight. Good lord.
No, they haven't. While their playoff run has been awesome, they haven't made the AFCC 19 years straight. Don't believe everything you read. Especially when it's directly followed by... (or maybe it just feels that way)
 

bbgun

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The Niners have rebuilt twice (the Kaep years and now) since we last made a championship game.
 

p1_

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The Niners have rebuilt twice (the Kaep years and now) since we last made a championship game.
and they will go further this postseason than Dallas will.
 

deadrise

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The Niners have rebuilt twice (the Kaep years and now) since we last made a championship game.
All kinds of things have happened since Dallas last made a championship game: two major bear markets, several elections, a couple of wars, a technological revolution or two, huge shifts in the world economy -- lots happens in 25 years.
 

p1_

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All kinds of things have happened since Dallas last made a championship game: two major bear markets, several elections, a couple of wars, a technological revolution or two, huge shifts in the world economy -- lots happens in 25 years.
the information superhighway... a cure for AIDS...
 

deadrise

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the information superhighway... a cure for AIDS...
Could make a fascinating infographic -- plotting out the multitude of profound changes the world has witnessed since Jerry last appeared in a Conf. Championship game.
 
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shoop

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No, they haven't. While their playoff run has been awesome, they haven't made the AFCC 19 years straight. Don't believe everything you read. Especially when it's directly followed by... (or maybe it just feels that way)
You are correct. They actually missed a whopping 5 times. Sadly they have more Superbowl wins in that time than number of times they have missed being in the conference championship game. Wish we had that kind of rotten luck.
 

yimyammer

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What a shock, a first year OC with only one year of NFL coaching experience as a QB coach is outcoached by veteran coaches who've been in the league almost as long as he is old.

The kid may be great one day but Its a horrifically arrogant decision to think he wouldn't suffer, and therefore the team, from his growing pains

just one of the many piles of issues that have surrounded this team for 25+ years
 

Cotton

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[h=1]Jason Garrett Is Jerry Jones' Tom Landry[/h]

ARI TEMKIN
NOVEMBER 15, 2019 - 9:40 AM
© Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
DALLAS (105.3 The Fan) - Jerry Jones always thought of Jason Garrett as his Tom Landry.

The Dallas Cowboys had just three head coaches in the first four decades of the franchise, but after Barry Switzer, Jerry hired five different coaches between 1998 and 2010. Everyone preached continuity for a trigger happy owner.

Continuity is what they got.

“He’s got outstanding background in our game. He’s gained a Harvard degree in the NFL through being your head coach of the Dallas Cowboys and I want to put all of that together and use it.” That’s what Jerry Jones said last season during one of his weekly visits on GBAG on 105.3 The Fan.

This is a similar trope Jerry has used over the years to justify Jason’s decade long employment. Jerry needs to sell the idea that Jason is learning through his mistakes, just as Landry did. Jerry believes if they fire Jason now they won’t reap the same benefits of the early Cowboys, who didn’t fire Landry, despite early mistakes.

Al Michaels recently said on the Dallas Cowboys Pregame Show that Jason Garrett has changed the least of any coach that has been around as long as he has. Jason Garrett believes deviation is a flaw.

In the modern era of sports, the most reactive coaches rule the day. A team that sticks to its plan, even in the face of overwhelming adversity, is a team doomed to fail.

Evolve or die.

As a billionaire businessman, Jerry Jones knows this better than anyone. This season, Jerry told The K+C Masterpiece on 105.3 The Fan that in business, when you acquire an asset you have to figure out a different usage, otherwise you'll lose money on the investment: "Anything I've ever acquired, I changed the use of it after I got it and tried to make it more viable."

Now the Cowboys sit at 5-4 and we’re left wondering why we ever believed this year could be different. Why on earth would we believe that Jason Garrett, staring directly at his own coaching mortality, would finally become something he’s never been?

Maybe Jason Garrett is just smarter than all of us...or maybe we wanted to believe that Scott Linehan was the problem, much in the same way that we believed Bill Callahan and Rob Ryan and Wade Phillips were the problem.

Jason Garrett dismissed his own brothers, was stripped of play calling duties and has fired every position coach and coordinator he’s worked with multiple times over. Jerry Jones has removed all of the blood from the body of the Dallas Cowboys and yet he still can’t find the infection.

There was so much excitement and optimism surrounding the potential with this team because of its talent, and because of Kellen Moore. If only Jason Garrett could finally become something he’s never been, the Cowboys might actually recognize their potential and return to glory.

That’s what made the Vikings loss last week so maddening. It wasn’t the loss per se, as much as it was an indication of the big picture...the ceiling on this season.

Dak Prescott played spectacularly, maybe better than any other game he’s played before, but he couldn’t overcome the deficiencies of the coaching staff. He was consistently asked to complete 3rd—and—long situations because of a flawed game plan. Even worse, the coaching staff showed a complete unwillingness to deviate from said flawed gameplan. Sound familiar?

Dak is No. 1 in the NFL in Total QBR at 78.8, ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Look at any of the other QB metrics and you will find Dak at or near the top. He’s having a career year in his most important season and yet he’s not in the MVP discussion because the Cowboys are 5-4.

“He’s [Garrett] well thought out. When you are sitting down and going over ‘What about this way or how about doing it that way?’ You’ll have a nice, good, logical reason for it not having gone that way. Every time.” That’s Jerry from the same interview last season with GBAG.

In a few short breathes, Jerry Jones told you everything you need to know about his relationship with Jason Garrett. Hope.

Jason Garrett has coached 145 games for the Dallas Cowboys. He’s one of five coaches in NFL history to coach at least 145 games with the same team and not play for a conference title. Of those five only Marvin Lewis has a worse winning percentage (52%) than Garrett (56%).

Actually, I lied.

There are six.

The sixth is Tom Landry. Landry coached 152 games in Dallas before playing for a conference title. Landry’s Cowboys won just 32% of their games in his first six seasons. In the next six, they won 77% of their games, six straight division titles, the NFC championship in 1970 and the franchise’s first Super Bowl in 1971.

Jason Garrett went 41-31 (57%) in his first five seasons and in the last five Garrett is 41-32.

Garrett is more Marvin Lewis than Tom Landry.

The Cowboys are in first place in the NFC East with the NFL’s top offense. Maybe they’ll win the division too. In that case, you’ll have to excuse my incredulity, but I’ve already seen how this movie ends.
 
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