Say we finish 7-9, miss the playoffs and look hapless throughout the rest of 2019. Garrett can't get a mulligan for one inexplicable-WTF-happened season?
Hell, Sean Payton missed the playoffs three consecutive years going 7-9.
You're probably baiting me, but yeah, finishing out of the playoffs would be a very bad indicator for Garrett and would be a sign that he no longer has the team moving in the right direction in a year when everything was set up for him to excel, but he couldn't do it. I have never gone stumping for Garrett as a superior Xs and Os tactician, but rather a guy who is a good leader and who gets the team to buy in and work hard and play the games hard given their talent level. And in the past half decade, that coaching performance has resulted in two division titles and three trips to the divisional round of the playoffs. The other two years, they were short a competent starting QB which is essentially a mulligan and then had another "mulligan" year when they sustained injuries to Tyron Smith long term and missed Elliott for 6 games, yet missed the playoffs by just one game.
This year those excuses don't really exist (so far). They have a healthy QB that they chose. Elliott is here. Even though the OL is banged up, there's enough depth that they shouldn't be falling apart (with Cam Fleming). Even if the offense is struggling, the defense is highly talented enough to the point where it should be able to carry the team a little (but it's not, it's underachieving).
Right now there is underachieving everywhere and it's without excuse. It's kinda like where last year was headed, which would have resulted in Garrett being fired, had they not turned it around and gone 7-1 down the stretch. He's gonna need to do it again if he wants to save his job.
But yeah, so if he finishes 7-9, he's probably gone. I will again maintain that you need to be aggressive and assertive in finding an upgrade. You can't simply waltz into the offseason coaching carousel and take whatever coordinator throws his hat into the ring and is willing to sign on the dotted line. You've gotta reach out to Lincoln Riley, you've gotta get creative.
To address the point you made, though, yeah, I don't think everyone should just assume that the next coach is gonna be a panacea for everything that's wrong here, even if it WAS someone like Sean Payton (which it won't be). Yeah, Payton went 7-9 three years in a row. And he had Drew Brees.
Payton is an upgrade over Garrett but the talent has to play on Sundays. It wouldn't shock me one bit if Payton was to come here and not really do any better at the end of the day (ie, no Super Bowl wins or appearances and an equal/lesser record of playoff appearances).