- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 125,682
I know. I'm a party pooper. I'm old and shit so I just don't have the patience for that shit anymore.Yeah, by the time I found a proper popcorn gif he was already gone.
2024 Random Cowboys Stuff Thread
- Thread starter boozeman
- Start date
- Status
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 45,720
I had him on ignore ever since he made it clear he intends on arguing like a toddler.
You disagree with me? You must be a "fill in the blank" lover.
He pulled that card several times.
What a retarded toddler level intellect.
It must suck to walk around like that your whole life.
You disagree with me? You must be a "fill in the blank" lover.
He pulled that card several times.
What a retarded toddler level intellect.
It must suck to walk around like that your whole life.
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 125,682
I'm convinced he is a boy. He argues like Trump on debate stage. "WRONG"
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 45,720
Anyway...
www.bloggingtheboys.com
Tale of Two Daks: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times
By NortheastCowboy on May 12, 2024, 10:40pm CDT +
Dak Prescott is the most polarizing QB in the NFL today. He has many supporters and detractors – even among Cowboy fans. This disparity is because Dak gives both his supporters and detractors plenty to work with. In this article, I've tried to identify what brings out the best (and worst) in Dak.
One of the criticisms leveled against Dak is that he has benefited from a weak schedule and while he plays well against lesser opponents, he fails against better teams. This article explores whether those criticisms are justified. Spoiler alert: They are.
For those looking to skip to the meat of the article, go to the section entitled "DAK VERSUS PLAYOFF-CALIBER TEAMS." There, you'll learn that Dak has a 18-27 lifetime record against playoff-bound teams and has a 4-18 lifetime record against playoff-caliber teams (regular season and playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses.
THE ANALYSIS
In identifying those teams Dak played the worst against, I also determined teams Dak played the best against. To do so, I looked at every one of Dak's 114 regular season game starts from 2016-2023. One set of teams that Dak has played best against is the teams in the NFC East (WFT, Eagles, Giants) along with the Lions (5 games, 4th most games played against) and Falcons (4 games, T5th most games played against). This data was relatively easy to find using the following source:
Dak Prescott Career Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com
While that data showed some interesting results, teams (and their defenses) vary from year to year. For example, the Eagle's defense of 2017 (4th in points allowed) is very different from the Eagle's defense of 2023 (30th in points allowed). To increase the granularity of the analysis, I also classified Dak's opponents as being either a top-10, middle-12, or bottom-10 scoring defense. Another classification was whether the opponent went to the playoffs. For this analysis, I used the following as a source of data:
Dak Prescott Career Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com
DAK VERSUS THE NFC EAST (AND LIONS AND FALCONS)
NFC East fans should not be surprised to learn that Dak has dominated the NFC East – nicknamed the "NFC Least" of late. Between the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons, Dak has played 49 regular season games, and this is his stats:
(49 games) 40W, 9L, 1074-1612, 66.6%, 12834 passing yards, 92 TDs, 22 Ints, 105.4 QB rating.
Dak's stats against the rest of the NFL are nowhere near as impressive:
(65 games) 33W, 32L, 1521-2261, 67.3%, 16625 passing yards, 110 TDs, 52 Ints, 95.4 QB rating.
While Dak is 31 games over .500 (40-9) against those 5 teams. Against the remaining 26 teams in the NFL, Dak is just a single game over .500 (33-32).
One characteristic shared by the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons since 2016 is that they have lousy scoring defenses. These are the scoring defense rankings for each team since 2016 (most recent to earliest):
Giants (26, 17, 23, 9, 30, 23, 27, 2)
Eagles (30, 8, 18, 20, 15, 12, 4, 12)
WFT (32, 7, 25, 4, 27, 15, 27, 19)
Lions (23, 28, 31, 32, 26, 16, 21, 13)
Falcons (18, 23, 29, 19, 23, 25, 8, 27)
Several things struck me as I was analyzing the data. First, against those teams, Dak had played very few top-10 scoring defenses. The second was that Dak oftentimes missed games against the NFC East opponents when they did have top-10 scoring defenses. Third, against those top-10 scoring defenses, Dak played very poorly.
To gain a better understanding of how playing against top-10 scoring defenses impacted Dak's statistics against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons, I backed out (from the 49 games) those games that Dak played against top-10 defenses.
Dak against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons without a top-10 defense:
(41 games) 37W, 4L, 922-1346, 68.5%, 11301 passing yards, 86 TDs, 14 Ints, 111.1 QB rating.
Dak against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons with a top-10 defense:
(8 games) 3W, 5L, 152-266, 57.1%, 1533 passing yards, 6 TDs, 8 Ints, 68.7 QB rating.
Dak plays like a MVP-caliber QB against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons when they don't have a top-10 defense. However, when those teams have good scoring defenses, Dak plays like a bottom-5 QB in the NFL.
DAK VERSUS TOP-10 DEFENSES
After seeing how poorly Dak played against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons when they had a top-10 defense, I extended my analysis to cover every team in the NFL. I broke the data out by top-10 scoring defenses, bottom-10 scoring defenses, and the middle-12 scoring defenses. Not only did the same disparities identified above exist when the entire NFL was analyzed, the data also shows that Dak has played a considerably higher percentage of games against lesser defenses over the course of his career than would normally be expected.
Dak against top-10 scoring defenses:
(30 games) 10W, 20L, 675-1078, 62.6%, 7386 passing yards, 37 TDs, 30 Ints, 82.7 QB rating, 18.8 Pts/game.
Dak against middle-12 scoring defenses:
(41 games) 25W, 16L, 932-1359, 68.6%, 10614 passing yards, 72 TDs, 26 Ints, 101.5 QB rating, 27.1 Pts/game.
Dak against bottom-10 scoring defenses:
(43 games) 38W, 5L, 988-1436, 68.6%, 11479 passing yards, 93 TDs, 18 Ints, 109.1 QB rating, 32.9 Pts/game.
Dak plays like an MVP against lesser competition and struggles against the better defenses in the NFL. Additionally, Dak has played 13 more games against bottom-10 scoring defenses than he has played against top-10 scoring defenses, which certainly impacts his overall performance.
The 2023 season illustrates how Dak's play against lesser opponents inflates his statistics.
After the Cowboys were embarrassed by the 49ers in the 5th game of the season, no one was considering Dak Prescott as a MVP candidate. However, that changed when Dak's schedule got MUCH easier. Starting with the 6th game of the season, these are the rankings of the scoring defenses Dak and the Cowboys faced for the remainder of the season: 24, 19, 30, 26, 29, 32, 25, 30, 4, 22, 23, 32. With the exception of the game against the 4th ranked team (Bills), Dak had a QB rating of 95.2 or better in every one of those games. Again, excluding the Bills game, the average scoring defense ranking for the other 11 games was 26. Looking at the 8 games (i.e., the games that put Dak in the 2023 MVP race) after the 49ers game and before the Bills game, Dak's stats were:
(8 games) 7W, 1L, 201-290, 69.3%, 2444 passing yards (305.5/game), 23 TDs, 2 Ints, 118.5 QB rating 36.0 Pts/game
The average defensive points allowed ranking over those 8 games was 27. In essence, for those 8 games, Dak and the Cowboys were averaging playing bottom-5 defenses.
Looking at all 17 games, the average scoring defense ranking was 24. In other words, Dak averaged playing against a bottom-10 scoring defense for the entire 2023 season – unsurprising since he played 11 games against teams that finished the season ranked bottom-10 in scoring defense.
A similar split can also be found during the 2019 season. Dak ended the season with a very respectful stat line of: 65.1%, 4902 passing yards, 30 TDs, 11 Ints, 99.7 QB rating. However, the splits tell a different story.
Against teams ultimately picking 2-5 in the draft, these were Dak’s stats in 2019:
(6 games) 6W, 0L, 144-208, 69.2%, 1924 yards, 19 TDs, 3 Ints, 122.8 QB rating
Against the rest of the teams the Cowboys played, these were Dak’s stats in 2019:
(10 games) 2W, 8L, 244-388, 62.9%, 2978 yards, 11 TDs, 8 Ints, 87.3 QB rating
As the data shows time and time again, Dak plays like a MVP-candidate against lesser teams but cannot replicate that level of play against the better teams in the NFL.
DAK VERSUS PLAYOFF-CALIBER TEAMS
The next and final step of the analysis was to look at how Dak plays against playoff-caliber teams with-top 10 scoring defenses versus non-playoff-caliber teams. The difference between a playoff-caliber team with a good defense and non-playoff team with a good defense is significant. A team can have a good defense, but if the opponent's offense is weak (the 2023 Jets are a good example), a QB can play more conservatively (i.e., 'play within himself') and still be reasonably assured of winning the game. Dak's overall career record (during the regular season) against playoff-caliber teams is 18-27, and his record against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses is a dismal 4-15 in the regular season.
Against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses during the regular season, Dak's stats are:
(19 games) 4W, 15L, 460-729, 63.1%, 5016 passing yards, 23 TDs, 23 Ints, 80.7 QB rating, 16.9 Pts/game
When including both the playoffs and the regular season, Dak's stats against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses are:
(22 games) 4W, 18L, 547-869, 62.9%, 5879 passing yards, 28 TDs, 28 Ints, 80.0 QB rating, 17.4 Pts/game
However, each of those 4 victories come with asterisks. The 4 games in which Dak and the Cowboys were victorious against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 defenses are the following:
11/13/2016 against the Steelers (10th ranked scoring defense). While this was probably Dak's best game in his rookie campaign, there were a couple detracting factors. First, the Steelers were not playing well going into that game – losing 3 in a row before the game and 4 out of their last 6 games. Second, Zeke was the real offensive star of that game – scoring twice with less than 2 minutes left in the game (including the 32 yard game winner with 9 seconds left) along with an 83 yard TD reception on a dump off pass.
12/31/2017 against the Eagles (4th ranked scoring defense). This is the ultimate asterisk game. The Eagles had clinched the best record in the NFC and didn't have anything to play for in the last game of the regular season. The Eagles played Nate Sudfeild at QB for 3 quarters and sat a great many of their offensive starters after the 1st quarter. At least 4 of the Eagle's starters on defense didn't even make it to the end of the 1st quarter before they sat. Despite the Eagles resting most of their starters, the Cowboys went all in for that game. However, the Cowboys only managed to win 6-0 in a game that Dak played quite poorly.
The next 2 games are probably the best games that I have seen Dak play against better opponents. However, even those games had asterisks.
10/17/2021 against the Patriots (2nd ranked scoring defense). The Patriots were 2-3 going into the game, and their defense was still a work in progress (21 pts/game the first 6 games of the season including the Cowboy game and 16 pts/game the final 11 games). The Cowboys also benefited from a pick-6 and another turnover by the Patriots in Cowboy territory.
12/24/2023 against the Eagles (8th ranked scoring defense). The Eagles had essentially clinched (magic number of 1 over the last 3 games) both the best record in the NFC and the NFC East the game before and were playing their 1st game without their MVP-candidate QB (Jalen Hurts). While Gardner Minshew wasn't terrible, he threw 2 interceptions, had a lost fumble among the 4 turnovers that the Eagles gave the Cowboys that game – including 2 turnovers by the Eagles after the Cowboys tied the game with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Also, all of those wins came down to the wire as each game was tied at least during one point in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys also played a QB2 (Minshew), a QB3 (Sudfield), and a rookie QB1 destined to become a backup (Mac Jones).
DAK'S 1ST HALF STRUGGLES AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS WITH TOP-10 DEFENSES
Dak's 17.4 pts/game average against playoff teams with top-10 defenses (regular season and playoffs) includes the last game he played – the playoff game against the Packers. Originally, I didn't have the Packers as a top-10 defense (and belatedly realized that they were the 10th ranked scoring defense in 2023). Because I ran the numbers already, I knew the Cowboys just 16.8 pts/game in the other 21 games against playoff teams with top-10 defenses. The Green Bay game (in which the Cowboys scored 16 points in the final 6 minutes after being down 48-16) got me thinking of all of the other games in which the Cowboys scored late against prevent defenses. This led me to look at 1st half point totals. These 1st half point totals, I believe, are more indicative of a team's offense as the game is more likely to be close with both teams still playing "their offense" – as opposed to a hurry-up offense/prevent defense.
As to be expected, Dak and the Cowboys really struggled against playoff teams with top-10 defenses in the 1st half. In those 22 games, the Cowboys have averaged just 7.6 pts in the 1st half – scoring 10 or more points in just 6 games. In the 3 games during the playoffs, the Cowboys have scored 7, 6, and 7 points in the 1st half.
WHY PLAY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS WITH TOP-10 SCORING DEFENSES IS IMPORTANT
The answer to why playing well against playoff teams with top-10 scoring defenses is important should be self-evident. Having a deep run in the playoffs requires beating multiple playoff-caliber teams, and more importantly, playoff-caliber teams tend to have top-10 scoring defenses.
I looked at the playoff records of the 5 surefire Hall-of-Fame QBs of recent memory (Super Bowl wins in parenthesis): Peyton Manning (2), Tom Brady (7), Drew Brees (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), and Patrick Mahomes (3). That is a total of 14 Super Bowl wins between them and a career 84-48 record in the playoffs (132 games). Each of those QBs played 50% or more of their games in the playoffs against teams with top-10 scoring defenses. In total, they played 76 games against top-10 defenses (57.6%). The following is their career record against playoff teams (in the playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses (points per game in parenthesis):
Manning: 10-8 (23.7)
Brady: 21-6 (27.9)
Brees: 2-7 (22.7)
Rodgers: 5-7 (25.4)
Mahomes: 8-2 (27.4)
Also, these QBs rarely had it easy in their Super Bowl wins. Rodgers played the 1st ranked scoring defense, Brees played the 8th ranked scoring defense, Manning played the 3rd and 6th ranked scoring defenses, Mahomes played the 3rd, 8th, and 8th ranked scoring defenses, and Brady played 1st, 2nd, 7th, 10th, 11th, 20th, and 27th ranked scoring defenses. 14 Super Bowl wins and only 3 were not against top-10 scoring defenses.
These 132 games provide a good sample size for describing the type of playoff teams that a team has to beat both in the earlier rounds and deeper into the playoffs. During the regular season, the chance of meeting a top-10 team is around 31%. In the playoffs, it was closer to 58% for these Hall of Fame-caliber QBs. In the Super Bowl, it was rare for them to not face a top-10 defense.
I confirmed this by looking at all of the playoff games from 2016-2023 (i.e., the entirety of Dak's career). In that 8-year period, there have been a total of 96 games played (192 teams). The first round went from 4 games in 2016-2019 to 6 games in 2020-2023. Of those 192 teams, 109 of them had a top-10 scoring defense (56.8%). In the wildcard round, 48.8% (39/80) of the teams had a top-10 scoring defenses. In the division/conference/Super Bowl, 62.5% (70/112) of the teams had a top-10 scoring defense. Over the same time period, the Super Bowl winner beat, on average, 1.8 teams that had a top-10 scoring defense. The Super Bowl loser beat, on average, 1 team that had a top-10 scoring defense. 10 out of the 16 participants in the last 8 Super Bowls had a top-10 scoring defense.
What all of this means is that if a team's QB struggles against playoff teams with top-10 defenses, that team is also going to struggle to make deep playoff runs – even if they have a Hall of Fame-caliber QB. Moreover, unlike the QBs I identified above who have a decent points scored average – even against top defenses – Dak struggles to score points against these better defenses. Just look at 2023, not counting the Green Bay playoff game in which the Cowboys 32 points scored were inflated by 16 garbage time points scored with less than 6 minutes remaining after being down 48-16, the Cowboys only faced 2 playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses: the 49ers and Bills . The Cowboys were outscored 42-10 and 31-10 in those games, and Dak had a QB rating of 51.6 and 61.8 in those games. Over the course of Dak's career during the regular season, the Cowboys fail to score more than 10 points in nearly half the games (9 out of 19) he plays against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 defenses.
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones was recently quoted as saying:
And beating top-10 defenses in the playoffs is not insurmountable. Against the 109 teams I identified above, the opposing team won 49 of those games, which is a 45% win rate. However, Dak's win rate is 18% (4/22).
SUPPORTING CAST
One of the excuses for Dak's failure to win big games is that 'Dak is just one guy on the football team and you cannot blame the Cowboy's failing on just one player.' There is some truth to that statement. However, it is no secret that a NFL quarterback is probably the most important position in all of team sports. Consequently, when a football team fails to win, much of the blame should be directed at the quarterback.
A larger problem with this counter-argument is that the Dak Prescott has enjoyed one of the better (if not the best) supporting cast in the NFC since Dak came into the NFL in 2016. It is difficult to separate WR stats from QB stats and I won't attempt to do so here, but Dak has benefited from a bevy of former 1st round picks at WR including: Dez Bryant, Amari Cooper, and Cee Dee Lamb. Since Dak's ability to make a deep run into the playoffs is primarily determined by NFC teams, my data looks at the teams in the NFC.
The Cowboy's defense has been exceptional since 2016. In the 5 seasons that the Cowboys have made the playoffs since 2016, the defense was ranked 5, 6, 7, 5, and 5 in points allowed. Moreover, the Cowboys have given up the least amount of points in the NFC since 2016:
Least Points Allowed In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
In addition to the defense being great at preventing scoring, they've also excelled in generating takeaways – taking the ball over the 2nd most in the NFC since 2016:
Most Team Takeaways In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
Not only has the Cowboy's defense been excellent, Dak has benefited from an excellent run game – first with Zeke and then with Tony Pollard. Since 2016, the Cowboys have the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFC:
Most Team Rushing Yards In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
The most team rushing yards is due to both the quality running backs as well as the quality of the offensive line. Since 2016, the Cowboys have given up the 4th fewest sacks in the NFC:
Least Team Sacks Allowed In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
Since 2016, there have been 101 Pro Bowl offensive lineman named to the NFC squad. 17 have been Cowboys, which is the 2nd in the NFC behind the Eagles (19). To put the Cowboy's wealth of talent in the offensive line into perspective, the bottom 8 teams in the NFC have had a total of 18 offensive linemen named to the Pro Bowl since 2016.
With the exception of Tom Brady, I don't think any QB has had a better supporting cast in the last 20 years during the course of his career than Dak Prescott. However, Brady's support has mostly been with great defenses. Dak, on the other hand, aside from very good defenses, has benefited from a bevy of Pro Bowl offensive players. In the 5 seasons that the Cowboys have made the playoffs (2016, 2018, 2021-2023) and not including Dak, the Cowboys have had 20 offensive players make the Pro Bowl (averaging 4 per season). By comparison, in Tom Brady's 7 Super Bowl winning seasons, he has had just 3 players from the offense (other than himself) make the Pro Bowl: (Troy Brown, 2001; Corey Dillon 2004; Rob Gronkowski 2014).
The Cowboy's defense against playoff teams with top-10 scoring defenses haven't been terrible either. The following is what the QB's own defenses have allowed for the 6 QBs I identified in this article:
Dak (22 games): 25.6 pts/game
P. Manning (18 games): 20.5 pts/game
Brady (27 games): 22.8 pts/game
Brees (9 games): 27.6 pts/game
Rodgers (12 games): 25.5 pts/game
Mahomes (10 games): 24.8 pts/game
While Manning's and Brady's defenses stepped up more, the Cowboy's defenses put up comparable numbers to the kind of support received by Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes.
Ultimately, it is not fair to compare Dak to 5 QBs who will eventually find their way into the NFL Hall of Fame. However, if an all-time great QB like Aaron Rodgers can only get a single Super Bowl appearance out of 11 trips to the playoffs and Drew Brees can only get a single Super Bowl appearance out of 10 trips to the playoffs, one has to ask how likely will it be for Dak to get to a Super Bowl given his shown inability to beat playoff-caliber teams with good defenses?
CONCLUSION
Going forward, it is difficult to expect the Cowboys to provide Dak with a better supporting than he has had in the past. Dan Quinn's three seasons with the Cowboys provided the Cowboys their best 3 seasons of defense since the 90s championship Cowboys. With Quinn to Washington and the recent departure of several players, there is a high likelihood that the defense will take a step back. The Cowboy's running back room is nowhere what it used to be. They now have a soon-to-be 29 year old and oft-used Zeke Elliott along with Rico Dowdle (385 career rushing yards in 3 seasons) are their lead backs. The offensive line is unlikely to be better either with the recent departure of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz along with Zack Martin playing out the final year of his contract. The Cowboy supporting cast is not what it used to be.
Not considering a mega-contract for Dak, the Cowboys will shortly be looking to extend both Cee Dee Lamb and Micah Parsons – both likely to be looking for record-setting contracts that would easily put them in a $30M+/year category – which will make it hard for the Cowboys to 'keep the band together' for too much longer. Dak has a career 2-5 playoff record with a great supporting cast, what will his playoff record be without one?
What needs to be asked of the Cowboys front office is what will they do about Dak Prescott? While many Cowboy fans are ready to move on from Dak, even those Cowboy fans expect the Cowboys to extend Dak sometime over the coming months to a record-breaking contract. However, if meaningful playoff wins are the ultimate goal – and not just stats in the regular season, perhaps the far, far better thing to be done is for the Cowboys to sever the cord with Dak and move on. The city of Dallas would be in a better place if this were to happen.
A Tale of Two Daks: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times
Dak Prescott is the most polarizing QB in the NFL today. He has many supporters and detractors – even among Cowboy fans. This disparity is because Dak gives both his supporters and detractors...
www.bloggingtheboys.com
Tale of Two Daks: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times
By NortheastCowboy on May 12, 2024, 10:40pm CDT +
Dak Prescott is the most polarizing QB in the NFL today. He has many supporters and detractors – even among Cowboy fans. This disparity is because Dak gives both his supporters and detractors plenty to work with. In this article, I've tried to identify what brings out the best (and worst) in Dak.
One of the criticisms leveled against Dak is that he has benefited from a weak schedule and while he plays well against lesser opponents, he fails against better teams. This article explores whether those criticisms are justified. Spoiler alert: They are.
For those looking to skip to the meat of the article, go to the section entitled "DAK VERSUS PLAYOFF-CALIBER TEAMS." There, you'll learn that Dak has a 18-27 lifetime record against playoff-bound teams and has a 4-18 lifetime record against playoff-caliber teams (regular season and playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses.
THE ANALYSIS
In identifying those teams Dak played the worst against, I also determined teams Dak played the best against. To do so, I looked at every one of Dak's 114 regular season game starts from 2016-2023. One set of teams that Dak has played best against is the teams in the NFC East (WFT, Eagles, Giants) along with the Lions (5 games, 4th most games played against) and Falcons (4 games, T5th most games played against). This data was relatively easy to find using the following source:
Dak Prescott Career Splits | Pro-Football-Reference.com
While that data showed some interesting results, teams (and their defenses) vary from year to year. For example, the Eagle's defense of 2017 (4th in points allowed) is very different from the Eagle's defense of 2023 (30th in points allowed). To increase the granularity of the analysis, I also classified Dak's opponents as being either a top-10, middle-12, or bottom-10 scoring defense. Another classification was whether the opponent went to the playoffs. For this analysis, I used the following as a source of data:
Dak Prescott Career Game Log | Pro-Football-Reference.com
DAK VERSUS THE NFC EAST (AND LIONS AND FALCONS)
NFC East fans should not be surprised to learn that Dak has dominated the NFC East – nicknamed the "NFC Least" of late. Between the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons, Dak has played 49 regular season games, and this is his stats:
(49 games) 40W, 9L, 1074-1612, 66.6%, 12834 passing yards, 92 TDs, 22 Ints, 105.4 QB rating.
Dak's stats against the rest of the NFL are nowhere near as impressive:
(65 games) 33W, 32L, 1521-2261, 67.3%, 16625 passing yards, 110 TDs, 52 Ints, 95.4 QB rating.
While Dak is 31 games over .500 (40-9) against those 5 teams. Against the remaining 26 teams in the NFL, Dak is just a single game over .500 (33-32).
One characteristic shared by the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons since 2016 is that they have lousy scoring defenses. These are the scoring defense rankings for each team since 2016 (most recent to earliest):
Giants (26, 17, 23, 9, 30, 23, 27, 2)
Eagles (30, 8, 18, 20, 15, 12, 4, 12)
WFT (32, 7, 25, 4, 27, 15, 27, 19)
Lions (23, 28, 31, 32, 26, 16, 21, 13)
Falcons (18, 23, 29, 19, 23, 25, 8, 27)
Several things struck me as I was analyzing the data. First, against those teams, Dak had played very few top-10 scoring defenses. The second was that Dak oftentimes missed games against the NFC East opponents when they did have top-10 scoring defenses. Third, against those top-10 scoring defenses, Dak played very poorly.
To gain a better understanding of how playing against top-10 scoring defenses impacted Dak's statistics against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons, I backed out (from the 49 games) those games that Dak played against top-10 defenses.
Dak against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons without a top-10 defense:
(41 games) 37W, 4L, 922-1346, 68.5%, 11301 passing yards, 86 TDs, 14 Ints, 111.1 QB rating.
Dak against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons with a top-10 defense:
(8 games) 3W, 5L, 152-266, 57.1%, 1533 passing yards, 6 TDs, 8 Ints, 68.7 QB rating.
Dak plays like a MVP-caliber QB against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons when they don't have a top-10 defense. However, when those teams have good scoring defenses, Dak plays like a bottom-5 QB in the NFL.
DAK VERSUS TOP-10 DEFENSES
After seeing how poorly Dak played against the NFC East, Lions, and Falcons when they had a top-10 defense, I extended my analysis to cover every team in the NFL. I broke the data out by top-10 scoring defenses, bottom-10 scoring defenses, and the middle-12 scoring defenses. Not only did the same disparities identified above exist when the entire NFL was analyzed, the data also shows that Dak has played a considerably higher percentage of games against lesser defenses over the course of his career than would normally be expected.
Dak against top-10 scoring defenses:
(30 games) 10W, 20L, 675-1078, 62.6%, 7386 passing yards, 37 TDs, 30 Ints, 82.7 QB rating, 18.8 Pts/game.
Dak against middle-12 scoring defenses:
(41 games) 25W, 16L, 932-1359, 68.6%, 10614 passing yards, 72 TDs, 26 Ints, 101.5 QB rating, 27.1 Pts/game.
Dak against bottom-10 scoring defenses:
(43 games) 38W, 5L, 988-1436, 68.6%, 11479 passing yards, 93 TDs, 18 Ints, 109.1 QB rating, 32.9 Pts/game.
Dak plays like an MVP against lesser competition and struggles against the better defenses in the NFL. Additionally, Dak has played 13 more games against bottom-10 scoring defenses than he has played against top-10 scoring defenses, which certainly impacts his overall performance.
The 2023 season illustrates how Dak's play against lesser opponents inflates his statistics.
After the Cowboys were embarrassed by the 49ers in the 5th game of the season, no one was considering Dak Prescott as a MVP candidate. However, that changed when Dak's schedule got MUCH easier. Starting with the 6th game of the season, these are the rankings of the scoring defenses Dak and the Cowboys faced for the remainder of the season: 24, 19, 30, 26, 29, 32, 25, 30, 4, 22, 23, 32. With the exception of the game against the 4th ranked team (Bills), Dak had a QB rating of 95.2 or better in every one of those games. Again, excluding the Bills game, the average scoring defense ranking for the other 11 games was 26. Looking at the 8 games (i.e., the games that put Dak in the 2023 MVP race) after the 49ers game and before the Bills game, Dak's stats were:
(8 games) 7W, 1L, 201-290, 69.3%, 2444 passing yards (305.5/game), 23 TDs, 2 Ints, 118.5 QB rating 36.0 Pts/game
The average defensive points allowed ranking over those 8 games was 27. In essence, for those 8 games, Dak and the Cowboys were averaging playing bottom-5 defenses.
Looking at all 17 games, the average scoring defense ranking was 24. In other words, Dak averaged playing against a bottom-10 scoring defense for the entire 2023 season – unsurprising since he played 11 games against teams that finished the season ranked bottom-10 in scoring defense.
A similar split can also be found during the 2019 season. Dak ended the season with a very respectful stat line of: 65.1%, 4902 passing yards, 30 TDs, 11 Ints, 99.7 QB rating. However, the splits tell a different story.
Against teams ultimately picking 2-5 in the draft, these were Dak’s stats in 2019:
(6 games) 6W, 0L, 144-208, 69.2%, 1924 yards, 19 TDs, 3 Ints, 122.8 QB rating
Against the rest of the teams the Cowboys played, these were Dak’s stats in 2019:
(10 games) 2W, 8L, 244-388, 62.9%, 2978 yards, 11 TDs, 8 Ints, 87.3 QB rating
As the data shows time and time again, Dak plays like a MVP-candidate against lesser teams but cannot replicate that level of play against the better teams in the NFL.
DAK VERSUS PLAYOFF-CALIBER TEAMS
The next and final step of the analysis was to look at how Dak plays against playoff-caliber teams with-top 10 scoring defenses versus non-playoff-caliber teams. The difference between a playoff-caliber team with a good defense and non-playoff team with a good defense is significant. A team can have a good defense, but if the opponent's offense is weak (the 2023 Jets are a good example), a QB can play more conservatively (i.e., 'play within himself') and still be reasonably assured of winning the game. Dak's overall career record (during the regular season) against playoff-caliber teams is 18-27, and his record against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses is a dismal 4-15 in the regular season.
Against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses during the regular season, Dak's stats are:
(19 games) 4W, 15L, 460-729, 63.1%, 5016 passing yards, 23 TDs, 23 Ints, 80.7 QB rating, 16.9 Pts/game
When including both the playoffs and the regular season, Dak's stats against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses are:
(22 games) 4W, 18L, 547-869, 62.9%, 5879 passing yards, 28 TDs, 28 Ints, 80.0 QB rating, 17.4 Pts/game
However, each of those 4 victories come with asterisks. The 4 games in which Dak and the Cowboys were victorious against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 defenses are the following:
11/13/2016 against the Steelers (10th ranked scoring defense). While this was probably Dak's best game in his rookie campaign, there were a couple detracting factors. First, the Steelers were not playing well going into that game – losing 3 in a row before the game and 4 out of their last 6 games. Second, Zeke was the real offensive star of that game – scoring twice with less than 2 minutes left in the game (including the 32 yard game winner with 9 seconds left) along with an 83 yard TD reception on a dump off pass.
12/31/2017 against the Eagles (4th ranked scoring defense). This is the ultimate asterisk game. The Eagles had clinched the best record in the NFC and didn't have anything to play for in the last game of the regular season. The Eagles played Nate Sudfeild at QB for 3 quarters and sat a great many of their offensive starters after the 1st quarter. At least 4 of the Eagle's starters on defense didn't even make it to the end of the 1st quarter before they sat. Despite the Eagles resting most of their starters, the Cowboys went all in for that game. However, the Cowboys only managed to win 6-0 in a game that Dak played quite poorly.
The next 2 games are probably the best games that I have seen Dak play against better opponents. However, even those games had asterisks.
10/17/2021 against the Patriots (2nd ranked scoring defense). The Patriots were 2-3 going into the game, and their defense was still a work in progress (21 pts/game the first 6 games of the season including the Cowboy game and 16 pts/game the final 11 games). The Cowboys also benefited from a pick-6 and another turnover by the Patriots in Cowboy territory.
12/24/2023 against the Eagles (8th ranked scoring defense). The Eagles had essentially clinched (magic number of 1 over the last 3 games) both the best record in the NFC and the NFC East the game before and were playing their 1st game without their MVP-candidate QB (Jalen Hurts). While Gardner Minshew wasn't terrible, he threw 2 interceptions, had a lost fumble among the 4 turnovers that the Eagles gave the Cowboys that game – including 2 turnovers by the Eagles after the Cowboys tied the game with less than 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
Also, all of those wins came down to the wire as each game was tied at least during one point in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys also played a QB2 (Minshew), a QB3 (Sudfield), and a rookie QB1 destined to become a backup (Mac Jones).
DAK'S 1ST HALF STRUGGLES AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS WITH TOP-10 DEFENSES
Dak's 17.4 pts/game average against playoff teams with top-10 defenses (regular season and playoffs) includes the last game he played – the playoff game against the Packers. Originally, I didn't have the Packers as a top-10 defense (and belatedly realized that they were the 10th ranked scoring defense in 2023). Because I ran the numbers already, I knew the Cowboys just 16.8 pts/game in the other 21 games against playoff teams with top-10 defenses. The Green Bay game (in which the Cowboys scored 16 points in the final 6 minutes after being down 48-16) got me thinking of all of the other games in which the Cowboys scored late against prevent defenses. This led me to look at 1st half point totals. These 1st half point totals, I believe, are more indicative of a team's offense as the game is more likely to be close with both teams still playing "their offense" – as opposed to a hurry-up offense/prevent defense.
As to be expected, Dak and the Cowboys really struggled against playoff teams with top-10 defenses in the 1st half. In those 22 games, the Cowboys have averaged just 7.6 pts in the 1st half – scoring 10 or more points in just 6 games. In the 3 games during the playoffs, the Cowboys have scored 7, 6, and 7 points in the 1st half.
WHY PLAY AGAINST PLAYOFF TEAMS WITH TOP-10 SCORING DEFENSES IS IMPORTANT
The answer to why playing well against playoff teams with top-10 scoring defenses is important should be self-evident. Having a deep run in the playoffs requires beating multiple playoff-caliber teams, and more importantly, playoff-caliber teams tend to have top-10 scoring defenses.
I looked at the playoff records of the 5 surefire Hall-of-Fame QBs of recent memory (Super Bowl wins in parenthesis): Peyton Manning (2), Tom Brady (7), Drew Brees (1), Aaron Rodgers (1), and Patrick Mahomes (3). That is a total of 14 Super Bowl wins between them and a career 84-48 record in the playoffs (132 games). Each of those QBs played 50% or more of their games in the playoffs against teams with top-10 scoring defenses. In total, they played 76 games against top-10 defenses (57.6%). The following is their career record against playoff teams (in the playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses (points per game in parenthesis):
Manning: 10-8 (23.7)
Brady: 21-6 (27.9)
Brees: 2-7 (22.7)
Rodgers: 5-7 (25.4)
Mahomes: 8-2 (27.4)
Also, these QBs rarely had it easy in their Super Bowl wins. Rodgers played the 1st ranked scoring defense, Brees played the 8th ranked scoring defense, Manning played the 3rd and 6th ranked scoring defenses, Mahomes played the 3rd, 8th, and 8th ranked scoring defenses, and Brady played 1st, 2nd, 7th, 10th, 11th, 20th, and 27th ranked scoring defenses. 14 Super Bowl wins and only 3 were not against top-10 scoring defenses.
These 132 games provide a good sample size for describing the type of playoff teams that a team has to beat both in the earlier rounds and deeper into the playoffs. During the regular season, the chance of meeting a top-10 team is around 31%. In the playoffs, it was closer to 58% for these Hall of Fame-caliber QBs. In the Super Bowl, it was rare for them to not face a top-10 defense.
I confirmed this by looking at all of the playoff games from 2016-2023 (i.e., the entirety of Dak's career). In that 8-year period, there have been a total of 96 games played (192 teams). The first round went from 4 games in 2016-2019 to 6 games in 2020-2023. Of those 192 teams, 109 of them had a top-10 scoring defense (56.8%). In the wildcard round, 48.8% (39/80) of the teams had a top-10 scoring defenses. In the division/conference/Super Bowl, 62.5% (70/112) of the teams had a top-10 scoring defense. Over the same time period, the Super Bowl winner beat, on average, 1.8 teams that had a top-10 scoring defense. The Super Bowl loser beat, on average, 1 team that had a top-10 scoring defense. 10 out of the 16 participants in the last 8 Super Bowls had a top-10 scoring defense.
What all of this means is that if a team's QB struggles against playoff teams with top-10 defenses, that team is also going to struggle to make deep playoff runs – even if they have a Hall of Fame-caliber QB. Moreover, unlike the QBs I identified above who have a decent points scored average – even against top defenses – Dak struggles to score points against these better defenses. Just look at 2023, not counting the Green Bay playoff game in which the Cowboys 32 points scored were inflated by 16 garbage time points scored with less than 6 minutes remaining after being down 48-16, the Cowboys only faced 2 playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses: the 49ers and Bills . The Cowboys were outscored 42-10 and 31-10 in those games, and Dak had a QB rating of 51.6 and 61.8 in those games. Over the course of Dak's career during the regular season, the Cowboys fail to score more than 10 points in nearly half the games (9 out of 19) he plays against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 defenses.
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones was recently quoted as saying:
One can explain a game or two or even perhaps a handful of losses on the bounce of the ball. However, as the old expression goes, the cream eventually does rise to the top. After 8 seasons, Dak's game is no mystery – he is who he is as a quarterback at this stage of his career. Dak has had 22 opportunities against playoff-caliber teams with top-10 scoring defenses. He's came away the loser in 18 of those games. Stephen Jones says "Dak can lead us to a championship," but Dak has shown time and time again that he cannot beat the kind of teams that one needs to beat in the playoffs to make a deep run.
And beating top-10 defenses in the playoffs is not insurmountable. Against the 109 teams I identified above, the opposing team won 49 of those games, which is a 45% win rate. However, Dak's win rate is 18% (4/22).
SUPPORTING CAST
One of the excuses for Dak's failure to win big games is that 'Dak is just one guy on the football team and you cannot blame the Cowboy's failing on just one player.' There is some truth to that statement. However, it is no secret that a NFL quarterback is probably the most important position in all of team sports. Consequently, when a football team fails to win, much of the blame should be directed at the quarterback.
A larger problem with this counter-argument is that the Dak Prescott has enjoyed one of the better (if not the best) supporting cast in the NFC since Dak came into the NFL in 2016. It is difficult to separate WR stats from QB stats and I won't attempt to do so here, but Dak has benefited from a bevy of former 1st round picks at WR including: Dez Bryant, Amari Cooper, and Cee Dee Lamb. Since Dak's ability to make a deep run into the playoffs is primarily determined by NFC teams, my data looks at the teams in the NFC.
The Cowboy's defense has been exceptional since 2016. In the 5 seasons that the Cowboys have made the playoffs since 2016, the defense was ranked 5, 6, 7, 5, and 5 in points allowed. Moreover, the Cowboys have given up the least amount of points in the NFC since 2016:
Least Points Allowed In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
In addition to the defense being great at preventing scoring, they've also excelled in generating takeaways – taking the ball over the 2nd most in the NFC since 2016:
Most Team Takeaways In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
Not only has the Cowboy's defense been excellent, Dak has benefited from an excellent run game – first with Zeke and then with Tony Pollard. Since 2016, the Cowboys have the 2nd most rushing yards in the NFC:
Most Team Rushing Yards In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
The most team rushing yards is due to both the quality running backs as well as the quality of the offensive line. Since 2016, the Cowboys have given up the 4th fewest sacks in the NFC:
Least Team Sacks Allowed In Nfc Since 2016 | StatMuse
Since 2016, there have been 101 Pro Bowl offensive lineman named to the NFC squad. 17 have been Cowboys, which is the 2nd in the NFC behind the Eagles (19). To put the Cowboy's wealth of talent in the offensive line into perspective, the bottom 8 teams in the NFC have had a total of 18 offensive linemen named to the Pro Bowl since 2016.
With the exception of Tom Brady, I don't think any QB has had a better supporting cast in the last 20 years during the course of his career than Dak Prescott. However, Brady's support has mostly been with great defenses. Dak, on the other hand, aside from very good defenses, has benefited from a bevy of Pro Bowl offensive players. In the 5 seasons that the Cowboys have made the playoffs (2016, 2018, 2021-2023) and not including Dak, the Cowboys have had 20 offensive players make the Pro Bowl (averaging 4 per season). By comparison, in Tom Brady's 7 Super Bowl winning seasons, he has had just 3 players from the offense (other than himself) make the Pro Bowl: (Troy Brown, 2001; Corey Dillon 2004; Rob Gronkowski 2014).
The Cowboy's defense against playoff teams with top-10 scoring defenses haven't been terrible either. The following is what the QB's own defenses have allowed for the 6 QBs I identified in this article:
Dak (22 games): 25.6 pts/game
P. Manning (18 games): 20.5 pts/game
Brady (27 games): 22.8 pts/game
Brees (9 games): 27.6 pts/game
Rodgers (12 games): 25.5 pts/game
Mahomes (10 games): 24.8 pts/game
While Manning's and Brady's defenses stepped up more, the Cowboy's defenses put up comparable numbers to the kind of support received by Brees, Rodgers, and Mahomes.
Ultimately, it is not fair to compare Dak to 5 QBs who will eventually find their way into the NFL Hall of Fame. However, if an all-time great QB like Aaron Rodgers can only get a single Super Bowl appearance out of 11 trips to the playoffs and Drew Brees can only get a single Super Bowl appearance out of 10 trips to the playoffs, one has to ask how likely will it be for Dak to get to a Super Bowl given his shown inability to beat playoff-caliber teams with good defenses?
CONCLUSION
Going forward, it is difficult to expect the Cowboys to provide Dak with a better supporting than he has had in the past. Dan Quinn's three seasons with the Cowboys provided the Cowboys their best 3 seasons of defense since the 90s championship Cowboys. With Quinn to Washington and the recent departure of several players, there is a high likelihood that the defense will take a step back. The Cowboy's running back room is nowhere what it used to be. They now have a soon-to-be 29 year old and oft-used Zeke Elliott along with Rico Dowdle (385 career rushing yards in 3 seasons) are their lead backs. The offensive line is unlikely to be better either with the recent departure of Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz along with Zack Martin playing out the final year of his contract. The Cowboy supporting cast is not what it used to be.
Not considering a mega-contract for Dak, the Cowboys will shortly be looking to extend both Cee Dee Lamb and Micah Parsons – both likely to be looking for record-setting contracts that would easily put them in a $30M+/year category – which will make it hard for the Cowboys to 'keep the band together' for too much longer. Dak has a career 2-5 playoff record with a great supporting cast, what will his playoff record be without one?
What needs to be asked of the Cowboys front office is what will they do about Dak Prescott? While many Cowboy fans are ready to move on from Dak, even those Cowboy fans expect the Cowboys to extend Dak sometime over the coming months to a record-breaking contract. However, if meaningful playoff wins are the ultimate goal – and not just stats in the regular season, perhaps the far, far better thing to be done is for the Cowboys to sever the cord with Dak and move on. The city of Dallas would be in a better place if this were to happen.
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 45,720
TLDR: Dak struggles against better defenses.
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 45,720
I am copying this from Reddit, but this crystalizes the stats from the article for anyone that wants a more specific TLDR:
Some of the data from the article :
Dak's stats against NFC East, Lions, and Falcons:
(49 games) 40W, 9L, 1074-1612, 66.6%, 12834 passing yards, 92 TDs, 22 Ints, 104.1 QB rating.
Dak's stats against the rest of the NFL:
(65 games) 33W, 32L, 1521-2261, 67.3%, 16625 passing yards, 110 TDs, 52 Ints, 95.4 QB rating.
Dak's stats against top-10 scoring defenses (regular season):
(30 games) 10W, 20L, 675-1078, 62.6%, 7386 passing yards, 37 TDs, 30 Ints, 82.7 QB rating, 18.8 Pts/game
Dak's stats against playoff-caliber teams (regular seasons and playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses:
(22 games) 4W, 18L, 547-869, 62.9%, 5879 passing yards, 28 TDs, 28 Ints, 80.0 QB rating, 17.4 Pts/game
Some of the data from the article :
Dak's stats against NFC East, Lions, and Falcons:
(49 games) 40W, 9L, 1074-1612, 66.6%, 12834 passing yards, 92 TDs, 22 Ints, 104.1 QB rating.
Dak's stats against the rest of the NFL:
(65 games) 33W, 32L, 1521-2261, 67.3%, 16625 passing yards, 110 TDs, 52 Ints, 95.4 QB rating.
Dak's stats against top-10 scoring defenses (regular season):
(30 games) 10W, 20L, 675-1078, 62.6%, 7386 passing yards, 37 TDs, 30 Ints, 82.7 QB rating, 18.8 Pts/game
Dak's stats against playoff-caliber teams (regular seasons and playoffs) with top-10 scoring defenses:
(22 games) 4W, 18L, 547-869, 62.9%, 5879 passing yards, 28 TDs, 28 Ints, 80.0 QB rating, 17.4 Pts/game
Texas Ace
I'll Never Dream Again
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 27,018
Yeah, you're not winning a SB with that guy.
Chocolate Lab
Kuato Lives
- Joined
- Oct 2, 2014
- Messages
- 29,061
Wow.
By all means, give this guy 60 million dollars a year.
In fact, just pass him over a blank check.
NoDak
Hotlinking' sonofabitch
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 26,132
Agreed.
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 60,148
Just trade him now.
But since we aren't, I'd suggest a bad ass run game to take pressure off Dak. Remember his rookie year when we would run at will on teams? Those were good days.
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 23,599
3 yards and a cloud of dust doesn't excite you?
Genghis Khan
The worst version of myself
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 45,720
That's definitely the move.
So of course we do the opposite.
I wonder why we never win?
Chocolate Lab
Kuato Lives
- Joined
- Oct 2, 2014
- Messages
- 29,061
Four highlights vs one of the worst teams in the league... I'm sold now.
Also, how did "Da King" get that from rookie minicamp?
Also, how did "Da King" get that from rookie minicamp?
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 60,148
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 60,148
I can't disagree. We are going to test this RBs don't matter theory really hard.
Bipo
This is damn peculiar....
- Joined
- Mar 17, 2020
- Messages
- 10,457
He's a decent RB that should be coming off the bench to give your starter a rest. He is perfectly capable of giving you 4 ypc in that role. His problem is that he can't even stay healthy doing that.
So, we have an OK RB that should be RB2 starting, a washed up has-been that should be out of the league at RB2, a tiny little specialty type player that they don't know what the fuck to do with, and some UDFA no one has ever heard of. And maybe some other guy.
Just fucking pitiful for a team that supposedly thinks it is "around the rim" of a championship.
- Status