Angrymesscan
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Does my having to open the page one day in advance qualify...?
Sturm's Draft Profiles
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Does my having to open the page one day in advance qualify...?
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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s 2015 NFL Draft profile: What I see in Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA[/h]
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 10, 2015 8:53 am
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA – 6’3, 266 – RS Senior
Today’s study is one of the more difficult names to master, but Odighizuwa could also be one of the better defensive ends in the entire mix. He is a bit older than your average draft prospect as he will hit his 23rd birthday the month of the draft. He was born in Ohio, raised in Nigeria, and a 5-Star recruit out of high school that suggested his greatness was inevitable in 2010. Since then, he has missed an entire season with 2 hip surgeries and now is trying to prove he is worth the potential health red flag. To study his work, we took a good look at the UCLA games against Texas, Virginia, USC, and Kansas State.
What I liked: When watching this player do his work, you can see there is a lot to like. He appears to be very versatile in many regards with his ability to do things that help you up front. First, he rushes from that RDE spot and can get some things done there with his array of moves. He can turn the corner reasonably well and is helped by his relentless battle. Then, you can line him up at the strong-side (LDE) where his ability to deal with the run is put on full display and that might be where he is really better than his size would indicate. He squares to the line and then can shoot gaps and anticipate the snap with speedy “get-off” and demonstrate some great athleticism. Additionally, he is moved inside on pass rush downs and can get isolated with a guard and push the pocket up. He has really long arms and uses them well with a push/pull technique that is too much for many of the college linemen he faced. His motor and his dimensions both really work in his favor.
What I did not like: When you see a player who missed an entire year with hip issues in college, that surely gives you pause. There is no question that the version of Odighizuwa in September and the same player in November were two different players, so his recovery might mean that he is available a bit deeper in the draft if all things were equal health-wise. He also doesn’t show the bend to turn the corner that someone like DeMarcus Ware had. This means that his angles to the Quarterback are not as sharp, meaning he cannot get there as quickly. This is not a major issue, just an admission that he might not have as high a ceiling as those above him, but still very solid.
Summary: Overall, I really like this player for the Cowboys in the late 1st or 2nd. He is perfect for their scheme and he possesses the tools that Rod Marinelli values with a high motor and a relentless battle level. He seems like the type of young piece that you could add to Tyrone Crawford and DeMarcus Lawrence and feel pretty solid about, provided he passes all of his medical exams to make sure the hip is not the sort of thing that is recurring. His production has not been quite as high as I might like at UCLA (6 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss in 2014), but keep in mind that he really was working his way back and had a quiet first month. After that, his production was pretty solid for the remainder of the year. You don’t always find defensive ends who appear to have better than average ability at pass rushing and run stopping, but I think Odighizuwa can be that type of guy. He appears to be a piece that Marinelli could really mold into another edge rush option that could offer reasonably-priced sacks for years to come. I would keep an eye on this guy in the Cowboys range.
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 10, 2015 8:53 am
| |
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA – 6’3, 266 – RS Senior
Today’s study is one of the more difficult names to master, but Odighizuwa could also be one of the better defensive ends in the entire mix. He is a bit older than your average draft prospect as he will hit his 23rd birthday the month of the draft. He was born in Ohio, raised in Nigeria, and a 5-Star recruit out of high school that suggested his greatness was inevitable in 2010. Since then, he has missed an entire season with 2 hip surgeries and now is trying to prove he is worth the potential health red flag. To study his work, we took a good look at the UCLA games against Texas, Virginia, USC, and Kansas State.
What I liked: When watching this player do his work, you can see there is a lot to like. He appears to be very versatile in many regards with his ability to do things that help you up front. First, he rushes from that RDE spot and can get some things done there with his array of moves. He can turn the corner reasonably well and is helped by his relentless battle. Then, you can line him up at the strong-side (LDE) where his ability to deal with the run is put on full display and that might be where he is really better than his size would indicate. He squares to the line and then can shoot gaps and anticipate the snap with speedy “get-off” and demonstrate some great athleticism. Additionally, he is moved inside on pass rush downs and can get isolated with a guard and push the pocket up. He has really long arms and uses them well with a push/pull technique that is too much for many of the college linemen he faced. His motor and his dimensions both really work in his favor.
What I did not like: When you see a player who missed an entire year with hip issues in college, that surely gives you pause. There is no question that the version of Odighizuwa in September and the same player in November were two different players, so his recovery might mean that he is available a bit deeper in the draft if all things were equal health-wise. He also doesn’t show the bend to turn the corner that someone like DeMarcus Ware had. This means that his angles to the Quarterback are not as sharp, meaning he cannot get there as quickly. This is not a major issue, just an admission that he might not have as high a ceiling as those above him, but still very solid.
Summary: Overall, I really like this player for the Cowboys in the late 1st or 2nd. He is perfect for their scheme and he possesses the tools that Rod Marinelli values with a high motor and a relentless battle level. He seems like the type of young piece that you could add to Tyrone Crawford and DeMarcus Lawrence and feel pretty solid about, provided he passes all of his medical exams to make sure the hip is not the sort of thing that is recurring. His production has not been quite as high as I might like at UCLA (6 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss in 2014), but keep in mind that he really was working his way back and had a quiet first month. After that, his production was pretty solid for the remainder of the year. You don’t always find defensive ends who appear to have better than average ability at pass rushing and run stopping, but I think Odighizuwa can be that type of guy. He appears to be a piece that Marinelli could really mold into another edge rush option that could offer reasonably-priced sacks for years to come. I would keep an eye on this guy in the Cowboys range.
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Hip thing doesn't sound so good though.
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Yeah, I'd prefer to pass on a big time injury risk.
Simpleton
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Yea, I have no clue what the deal with that is obviously though so I can just go by what I see from the games.
ravidubey
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Pass until maybe the early-mid 4th round. He's a maybe in round 3 since we pick at the bottom.
He's kind of stiff and wasn't a productive college pass rusher, but that's OK for an LDE. His size also isn't bad for a strong-side player considering he has the frame to add more muscle.
BUT his hip problems quash any early round possibilities IMO. I also want early round picks to be natural football players who grow up with the sport, and that's not happening with someone raised in Nigeria.
He's kind of stiff and wasn't a productive college pass rusher, but that's OK for an LDE. His size also isn't bad for a strong-side player considering he has the frame to add more muscle.
BUT his hip problems quash any early round possibilities IMO. I also want early round picks to be natural football players who grow up with the sport, and that's not happening with someone raised in Nigeria.
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I actually agree. This looks like a guy who is still living off his highschool recruiting report. Didn't make that many plays in college. Was injured a lot. The clips that he shows on him look more like hustle plays then any sort of a real legit pass rush threat.
Simpleton
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Watch the tapes of him against USC and Virginia, he is very strong against the run and has good pass rush ability for a strong side DE, and I think he could actually be at his best rushing from the interior against OG's in nickel/dime situations like Tuck used to be a few years ago. He doesn't have the ideal ability to bend the edge like the elite do but you aren't going to readily find that where we are picking. What he does have is an NFL ready frame, long arms, he's stout against the run and actually pretty explosive overall.
If he checks out medically we could do worse at 27, and especially if we trade down into the early 2nd.
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With no injury concerns maybe I could justify him at 27 if he is everything you're saying. With his injury history though, no way could I justify a first round pick on a run stuffing DE with limited pass rush potential.
Simpleton
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Well I'm just going by what I saw in the games, I really have no idea what the condition of his hips are considering the fact that he got better as the year went on. Obviously if there are concerns that the hips could be degenerative you drop him several rounds.
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I guess the way I look at it, no matter what the doctors see when they look at this guy, I'm still going to worry about his ability to stay healthy. I don't think doctors are necessarily able to judge a players propensity for injury. Sort of like the Easley pick by the Patriots last year. I'm sure the doctors gave him an all clear and yet he was on IR pretty quickly in his rookie year.
Genghis Khan
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God yes. I'm usually on my phone, and it crashes when I enter these threads every damn time.
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2015 NFL Draft Profile: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon – 6’8, 290 – Junior
One of the reasons to write these profiles is to offer something fun for everyone to read 4 or 5 years from now to see how much guesswork is done on college players at the age of 20 or 21 to project what they might possibly be when they turn 25 as seasoned pros. Odds are, I will hit on many of these and miss horribly on many more. What is interesting is that I know which ones are candidates to be ones I anticipate could come back to bite me in 2018.
That said, Arik Amstead, is the type of player that requires that we carefully consider his future perhaps even more than his present tense. Presently, Amstead has been a massive recruit for Oregon 3 seasons ago, who has played 3 seasons with the Ducks and amassed 4 sacks, total. He showed many impressive flashes along the way, but never made an All-Pac-12 team while there. To study his work, we watched the Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State games from this past season.
What I liked: Amstead is a very big man who impresses you by simply walking out of the huddle with the most intimidating build on the field. He is 6’8, 290 and could be Julius Peppers or Calias Campbell in terms of body-type. He is a true DE in a 3-4 as a 5-technique who lines up to 2-gap right on the right tackle. He is a terrific player at the line of scrimmage in terms of stopping most runs in his vicinity, as well as affecting runs to the other side by chasing down the line. You can see how opposing offensive lines plan tactically to deal directly with Amstead first with a double team or attention that will focus on him when playing the Ducks. He is a handful and is quite strong. He also shows that he will keep battling on many plays and benefits from either cleaning up coverage sacks or causing others to have opportunities. He can bullrush with power on a 1-on-1 matchup. He is just 20, and therefore is still growing into his strength and abilities and could blossom into something pretty special in time. This is his biggest strength, the idea that the NFL loves specimen with tools everywhere, and he just needs to put it together to perhaps be a player like Campbell in time.
What I did not like: Unfortunately, I am not someone who feels really comfortable drafting a player based on tools. I want to see production and chaos caused by a defensive linemen that is projected to go so high in the draft. 2.5 sacks is not going to stop traffic and while I realize a 5-technique is never going to set statistical records, I still want to see him dominate at the college level and that never happened. He plays so high that he often gets beaten by leverage on pass rush attempts and stumbles around on moves. He does not have exceptional quickness and if that isn’t there at 20, it often just isn’t there. At times, I also look at his motor and would like to see a bit more intensity from his game. He can go long stretches without anything notable on his ledger.
Summary: I have been studying draft prospects for a long time and know that sometimes, this is the type of guy to come back and bite you in the rear in 4 years if you discount them at this age. A positional coach could turn the switch for a guy like this and suddenly he is a superstar. That said, I don’t see what others do in this player. There is no doubt he shows flashes, but that can be a very risky play to believe in a guy based on flashes. Also, he is not a scheme fit for the 4-3 as some have suggested he could be a 3-technique DT, but I need explosion there. He is all power and not enough quicks for me. As a 5-tech, he is very interesting but not as exciting as a player like Baylor’s Shawn Oakman who decided to return for another year. He looks like a risky proposition for me and I would let someone else draft and develop him. I need to see more present tense greatness to invest heavily – which is what you would have to do to get him based on the buzz he has generated.
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon – 6’8, 290 – Junior
One of the reasons to write these profiles is to offer something fun for everyone to read 4 or 5 years from now to see how much guesswork is done on college players at the age of 20 or 21 to project what they might possibly be when they turn 25 as seasoned pros. Odds are, I will hit on many of these and miss horribly on many more. What is interesting is that I know which ones are candidates to be ones I anticipate could come back to bite me in 2018.
That said, Arik Amstead, is the type of player that requires that we carefully consider his future perhaps even more than his present tense. Presently, Amstead has been a massive recruit for Oregon 3 seasons ago, who has played 3 seasons with the Ducks and amassed 4 sacks, total. He showed many impressive flashes along the way, but never made an All-Pac-12 team while there. To study his work, we watched the Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State games from this past season.
What I liked: Amstead is a very big man who impresses you by simply walking out of the huddle with the most intimidating build on the field. He is 6’8, 290 and could be Julius Peppers or Calias Campbell in terms of body-type. He is a true DE in a 3-4 as a 5-technique who lines up to 2-gap right on the right tackle. He is a terrific player at the line of scrimmage in terms of stopping most runs in his vicinity, as well as affecting runs to the other side by chasing down the line. You can see how opposing offensive lines plan tactically to deal directly with Amstead first with a double team or attention that will focus on him when playing the Ducks. He is a handful and is quite strong. He also shows that he will keep battling on many plays and benefits from either cleaning up coverage sacks or causing others to have opportunities. He can bullrush with power on a 1-on-1 matchup. He is just 20, and therefore is still growing into his strength and abilities and could blossom into something pretty special in time. This is his biggest strength, the idea that the NFL loves specimen with tools everywhere, and he just needs to put it together to perhaps be a player like Campbell in time.
What I did not like: Unfortunately, I am not someone who feels really comfortable drafting a player based on tools. I want to see production and chaos caused by a defensive linemen that is projected to go so high in the draft. 2.5 sacks is not going to stop traffic and while I realize a 5-technique is never going to set statistical records, I still want to see him dominate at the college level and that never happened. He plays so high that he often gets beaten by leverage on pass rush attempts and stumbles around on moves. He does not have exceptional quickness and if that isn’t there at 20, it often just isn’t there. At times, I also look at his motor and would like to see a bit more intensity from his game. He can go long stretches without anything notable on his ledger.
Summary: I have been studying draft prospects for a long time and know that sometimes, this is the type of guy to come back and bite you in the rear in 4 years if you discount them at this age. A positional coach could turn the switch for a guy like this and suddenly he is a superstar. That said, I don’t see what others do in this player. There is no doubt he shows flashes, but that can be a very risky play to believe in a guy based on flashes. Also, he is not a scheme fit for the 4-3 as some have suggested he could be a 3-technique DT, but I need explosion there. He is all power and not enough quicks for me. As a 5-tech, he is very interesting but not as exciting as a player like Baylor’s Shawn Oakman who decided to return for another year. He looks like a risky proposition for me and I would let someone else draft and develop him. I need to see more present tense greatness to invest heavily – which is what you would have to do to get him based on the buzz he has generated.
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[h=1]Bob Sturm’s 2015 NFL Draft profile: What I see in Hau’oli Kikaha, LB. Washington[/h]
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 12, 2015 8:38 am
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Hau’oli Kikaha, LB, Washington – 6’3, 248 – RS Senior
Today, we look at one of the players that is the focal point of the entire draft process. Each spring, there are a few players who cause polarizing opinions and debates for the several months between the bowl games and the NFL draft. Hau’oli Kikaha is one of them. Think about this, well-meaning draft analysts have all considered his abilities and while some have him in the 1st round, others have him not getting drafted at all. That is pretty odd to have that wide of a range of possibilities for a player who led the nation in sacks in 2014 and finished 4th in the same category in 2013. To consider his pros and cons, we examined the Stanford, California, and Illinois games from this past season.
What I liked: Let’s start here – He has played in 27 games in the last 2 seasons and accumulated 32 sacks and 40.5 tackles for loss. Those 72.5 explosive plays are so productive in 2 seasons in a major conference it makes one take notice of what he is capable of. He causes chaos behind the line of scrimmage on a regular and routine basis. Clearly, he fits best as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but he can also play a defensive end in a 4-3 – provided it is generally in passing situations. He is a very competitive player who does not give up if his first move does not work. His work rate is exceptional and again, he is just so productive in making plays and showing up that it would be foolish to discount those items. High RPMs. He also drops into coverage on a routine basis and while he is best in the short zones, he demonstrates at least an average ability when asked to chase in man. He seems to have a pretty decent array of skills that can be used.
What I did not like: Here is where the debates start raging on. He missed nearly all of 2011 and all of 2012 with ACL injuries to his left knee on separate occasions. This is the first hurdle he must jump over this spring as medical examinations will be a major part of his process. Then, when you watch him play, it is clear that his skills are best served going forward, but to be an elite edge linebacker in a 3-4, you better be able to run, plant, and change direction at a high speed as well. It seems that is where he gets caught up in his ability to dominate in space against the grain. His 40 time will be key at the combine, because he doesn’t look as fast or as explosive as some of his counterparts. As for other concerns, it seems he might not hold up well against the run if you try to play him at DE and therefore his scheme destination is going to be key. He may not be a guy who can play ever down and therefore, if you add his limited role to his questionable medical history, now you see why people are trying to figure out where he fits in this big conversation.
Summary: In the end, I want to see production. When I popped on any game, there were things both good and bad, but there was always an explosive play or three where he is causing a negative moment for an opponent that generally stopped the drive. He gets to the QB very well, although it should be pointed out that when facing the 1st round prospect LT from Stanford, Andrus Peat, he was pretty quiet. He accomplished his plays against their RT. It is also said that he benefited from playing with Danny Shelton, Shaq Thompson, and at times, Marcus Peters (3 other Huskies that could go very high in the draft), but my answer to that is that they benefited, too, from playing with him. He needs to go to a 3-4 team, but from there, I don’t see why he can’t keep causing chaos at the NFL level by finding your sacks on passing downs. What currency counts for more for a defensive player in this current era? I think he will be fine at the next level. 2nd round? His spring will tell the story.
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 12, 2015 8:38 am
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Hau’oli Kikaha, LB, Washington – 6’3, 248 – RS Senior
Today, we look at one of the players that is the focal point of the entire draft process. Each spring, there are a few players who cause polarizing opinions and debates for the several months between the bowl games and the NFL draft. Hau’oli Kikaha is one of them. Think about this, well-meaning draft analysts have all considered his abilities and while some have him in the 1st round, others have him not getting drafted at all. That is pretty odd to have that wide of a range of possibilities for a player who led the nation in sacks in 2014 and finished 4th in the same category in 2013. To consider his pros and cons, we examined the Stanford, California, and Illinois games from this past season.
What I liked: Let’s start here – He has played in 27 games in the last 2 seasons and accumulated 32 sacks and 40.5 tackles for loss. Those 72.5 explosive plays are so productive in 2 seasons in a major conference it makes one take notice of what he is capable of. He causes chaos behind the line of scrimmage on a regular and routine basis. Clearly, he fits best as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, but he can also play a defensive end in a 4-3 – provided it is generally in passing situations. He is a very competitive player who does not give up if his first move does not work. His work rate is exceptional and again, he is just so productive in making plays and showing up that it would be foolish to discount those items. High RPMs. He also drops into coverage on a routine basis and while he is best in the short zones, he demonstrates at least an average ability when asked to chase in man. He seems to have a pretty decent array of skills that can be used.
What I did not like: Here is where the debates start raging on. He missed nearly all of 2011 and all of 2012 with ACL injuries to his left knee on separate occasions. This is the first hurdle he must jump over this spring as medical examinations will be a major part of his process. Then, when you watch him play, it is clear that his skills are best served going forward, but to be an elite edge linebacker in a 3-4, you better be able to run, plant, and change direction at a high speed as well. It seems that is where he gets caught up in his ability to dominate in space against the grain. His 40 time will be key at the combine, because he doesn’t look as fast or as explosive as some of his counterparts. As for other concerns, it seems he might not hold up well against the run if you try to play him at DE and therefore his scheme destination is going to be key. He may not be a guy who can play ever down and therefore, if you add his limited role to his questionable medical history, now you see why people are trying to figure out where he fits in this big conversation.
Summary: In the end, I want to see production. When I popped on any game, there were things both good and bad, but there was always an explosive play or three where he is causing a negative moment for an opponent that generally stopped the drive. He gets to the QB very well, although it should be pointed out that when facing the 1st round prospect LT from Stanford, Andrus Peat, he was pretty quiet. He accomplished his plays against their RT. It is also said that he benefited from playing with Danny Shelton, Shaq Thompson, and at times, Marcus Peters (3 other Huskies that could go very high in the draft), but my answer to that is that they benefited, too, from playing with him. He needs to go to a 3-4 team, but from there, I don’t see why he can’t keep causing chaos at the NFL level by finding your sacks on passing downs. What currency counts for more for a defensive player in this current era? I think he will be fine at the next level. 2nd round? His spring will tell the story.
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As I said in another thread, Armstead just doesn't do it for me.
Every year it seems there is some physical marvel that is overinflated but doesn't have production. Last year it was Hageman.
To me, he looks like Chris Canty. But I don't see this guy as the one that you regret passing on five years from now.
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[h=1]2015 Sturm Draft Profile: Carl Davis, DT, Iowa[/h]
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 14, 2015 6:32 pm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Carl Davis, DT, Iowa – 6’5, 321 – RS Senior
One of these days, we need to discuss the issues about what positions are considered worthy of what rounds and more importantly, why that is the case. But, to explain how that entire discussion pertains to Carl Davis, we simply look back at the 2013 draft and the argument that ensued in the war-room between the Cowboys brass when it was time to pick or trade down. Scouts wanted the 1-technique (the inside defensive tackle that lines up over the center and gets double teamed each play) Sharrif Floyd from Florida because they had him as a Top 5 player overall falling all the way to #18 where the Cowboys were on the clock. But, Rod Marinelli – just the new DL coach at the time – said not to take him in Round 1 because 1-techniques aren’t valued high enough to take in the 1st round. I honestly don’t recall a coach ever arguing against taking a player in his own positional group, but it should give us an indication of how seriously they would take this big 1-tech from Iowa. For this study, we looked at his games this season against Pittsburgh, Indiana, and Wisconsin.
What I liked: The problem with 1-techniques in general is that they don’t offer much in the backfield and they also don’t have much for a pass rush. I think Davis is better than that and it is clear that Iowa thought they could use him as a part time 3-technique, as well. He has very good tight-space quickness and can lose a center or guard right at the snap with a jump that is most impressive. He is also as stout as they come, and you aren’t moving him unless you have a real solid double-team block on him. So, you have the best of both worlds in that he is both an anchor against the run, but also a guy who can penetrate and get into the backfield to shut down a play in a hurry. He really controls the middle of the line and also has a swim move and a club that is very useful. This guy is going to be an impressive 1-tech for many years. Very difficult to deal with in short yardage spots. Sometimes he is very good with his hands at keeping people off him, other times he is inconsistent and easily occupied.
What I did not like: I do have a tough time with his consistency and his motor. In both cases, it seems that we are talking about not just flashing a time or two in a game, but rather we want to see excellence over and over. I am also looking for him to swarm to the ball and not just run when he thinks the play is at him. Unfortunately, he is slow to swarm. I know the Cowboys want 11 to the ball, so I have to point down that issue. He is a very big man, so I am looking for quickness outside his circle and to be able to get down the line on a zone stretch and I am not a huge fan of his mobility and quickness from side to side. He is active, but plodding and looks like he is just not very affective if he has to move to make a play (aside from charging forward). There are long stretches of non-productive play.
Summary: So, on one hand, I expect him to be a factor for many years, but I also want to be clear that I don’t fancy him as a 1st round pick who is A) without any clear flaws or B) a major upgrade over what the average NFL team has at that spot. He is a very good potentially-starting player who will help the team and improve the rotation quite a bit, but I watched him this week after being asked quite a bit how I feel about taking him at #27. I don’t think he is a 3-technique in the NFL and therefore as a 1-technique, he better be pretty special to be a candidate to get into Dallas’ 1st round. Eddie Goldman is that type of guy, but from the games I watched of Carl Davis – despite his week at the Senior Bowl that impressed so many – I would value him a round or two later.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
[h=6]Bob Sturm Follow @sportssturm Email [email]sturm1310@me.com[/EMAIL][/h]
Published: February 14, 2015 6:32 pm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Carl Davis, DT, Iowa – 6’5, 321 – RS Senior
One of these days, we need to discuss the issues about what positions are considered worthy of what rounds and more importantly, why that is the case. But, to explain how that entire discussion pertains to Carl Davis, we simply look back at the 2013 draft and the argument that ensued in the war-room between the Cowboys brass when it was time to pick or trade down. Scouts wanted the 1-technique (the inside defensive tackle that lines up over the center and gets double teamed each play) Sharrif Floyd from Florida because they had him as a Top 5 player overall falling all the way to #18 where the Cowboys were on the clock. But, Rod Marinelli – just the new DL coach at the time – said not to take him in Round 1 because 1-techniques aren’t valued high enough to take in the 1st round. I honestly don’t recall a coach ever arguing against taking a player in his own positional group, but it should give us an indication of how seriously they would take this big 1-tech from Iowa. For this study, we looked at his games this season against Pittsburgh, Indiana, and Wisconsin.
What I liked: The problem with 1-techniques in general is that they don’t offer much in the backfield and they also don’t have much for a pass rush. I think Davis is better than that and it is clear that Iowa thought they could use him as a part time 3-technique, as well. He has very good tight-space quickness and can lose a center or guard right at the snap with a jump that is most impressive. He is also as stout as they come, and you aren’t moving him unless you have a real solid double-team block on him. So, you have the best of both worlds in that he is both an anchor against the run, but also a guy who can penetrate and get into the backfield to shut down a play in a hurry. He really controls the middle of the line and also has a swim move and a club that is very useful. This guy is going to be an impressive 1-tech for many years. Very difficult to deal with in short yardage spots. Sometimes he is very good with his hands at keeping people off him, other times he is inconsistent and easily occupied.
What I did not like: I do have a tough time with his consistency and his motor. In both cases, it seems that we are talking about not just flashing a time or two in a game, but rather we want to see excellence over and over. I am also looking for him to swarm to the ball and not just run when he thinks the play is at him. Unfortunately, he is slow to swarm. I know the Cowboys want 11 to the ball, so I have to point down that issue. He is a very big man, so I am looking for quickness outside his circle and to be able to get down the line on a zone stretch and I am not a huge fan of his mobility and quickness from side to side. He is active, but plodding and looks like he is just not very affective if he has to move to make a play (aside from charging forward). There are long stretches of non-productive play.
Summary: So, on one hand, I expect him to be a factor for many years, but I also want to be clear that I don’t fancy him as a 1st round pick who is A) without any clear flaws or B) a major upgrade over what the average NFL team has at that spot. He is a very good potentially-starting player who will help the team and improve the rotation quite a bit, but I watched him this week after being asked quite a bit how I feel about taking him at #27. I don’t think he is a 3-technique in the NFL and therefore as a 1-technique, he better be pretty special to be a candidate to get into Dallas’ 1st round. Eddie Goldman is that type of guy, but from the games I watched of Carl Davis – despite his week at the Senior Bowl that impressed so many – I would value him a round or two later.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
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- Apr 7, 2013
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- 130,499
2015 NFL Draft Profile: Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/LB, Louisville
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/LB, Louisville – 6’4, 255 – Senior
Here is yet another option in a very plentiful and top-heavy draft for edge rushing defensive ends and linebackers. Finding candidates who might be the answer is never hard as the draft offers us many players every year at this position. The trick is finding the actual answer, who can make their game translate to Sundays like it did on Saturdays. The differences are sometimes under-discussed, but for starters, the tackles at the NFL level are unlike anything these guys see in college, usually. College football tackles are normally never moving on, and most that do are moving inside to guard. So often, when evaluating edge rushers in college, you have to consider who they are beating as much as the pass rusher himself.
Mauldin has an amazing story and has overcome many obstacles growing up to get where he is today as a man. As a player, he is clearly a leader in his own locker-room, and a guy who has been looked at to deliver impact moments and key stops more and more as his career has gone on at Louisville. For his project, we looked at Georgia, Florida State, and Virginia. I will confess at the top that he is a complicated study.
What I liked: There are moments where he can make you jaw drop. He comes around the edge like in the video above, swats the arms off him from the left tackle and blindsides the QB with textbook ease and performance. He moves from LDE to RDE to OLB and sometimes even to MLB like we saw with Dante Fowler, where it looks like he has been handed the keys to the defense and told to go make plays. He has a very impressive flexibility and bend to his body that makes edge rushing easier. He has long arms and can win with quick and also show strength at times. He is very active and is looking to swat passes when he doesn’t get home. He has a solid swim move. He can drop into coverage and doesn’t look lost, but his ability to change directions quickly might harm him here.
What I did not like: More than anything, there were games where he just didn’t look the same. I mention this because in the Florida State and Georgia games, he was rather anonymous. That said, he did make single plays that were significant in both. He appears to be banged up and hampered by injury in both of those contests, so I would love to know his actual status as he played in both games. More than that, he gets hung up very often in pass rushes where OL get their hands on him and he is stuck. He can’t break free with his arms like the other premium guys can. He also looked slow on change of direction against Virginia where he misread a zone read and an end around and each time could not slam on the breaks and reaccelerate at a normal pace for a player in his position. He appears to have average quickness for his spot and can get outflanked against the run with a false step to the inside – especially in the NFL.
Summary: Like I said, this one is confusing. He appears to be more ideal to be the outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, yet the open field quickness will surely be tested there. You watch 3 or 4 games and you generally feel like you know the player. This time, I feel like there are some very interesting aspects to his game that make him a 1st round idea and other aspects that look like an average draft-able LB that you shouldn’t overspend to get. I think that his hamstring injury at midseason cut down on his production (6.5 sacks, 13 TFLs), but then you even ask about the numbers he did accumulate because he had 3 sacks against Wake Forest alone. Is he a special player or is he a guy who flashes special qualities but cannot sustain it like you need if you are to spend a high pick on him? Like a few of his colleagues in this position group, I feel like I will need to revisit him and choose new games to zero in before the draft. As it stands, I think I see him in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/LB, Louisville – 6’4, 255 – Senior
Here is yet another option in a very plentiful and top-heavy draft for edge rushing defensive ends and linebackers. Finding candidates who might be the answer is never hard as the draft offers us many players every year at this position. The trick is finding the actual answer, who can make their game translate to Sundays like it did on Saturdays. The differences are sometimes under-discussed, but for starters, the tackles at the NFL level are unlike anything these guys see in college, usually. College football tackles are normally never moving on, and most that do are moving inside to guard. So often, when evaluating edge rushers in college, you have to consider who they are beating as much as the pass rusher himself.
Mauldin has an amazing story and has overcome many obstacles growing up to get where he is today as a man. As a player, he is clearly a leader in his own locker-room, and a guy who has been looked at to deliver impact moments and key stops more and more as his career has gone on at Louisville. For his project, we looked at Georgia, Florida State, and Virginia. I will confess at the top that he is a complicated study.
What I liked: There are moments where he can make you jaw drop. He comes around the edge like in the video above, swats the arms off him from the left tackle and blindsides the QB with textbook ease and performance. He moves from LDE to RDE to OLB and sometimes even to MLB like we saw with Dante Fowler, where it looks like he has been handed the keys to the defense and told to go make plays. He has a very impressive flexibility and bend to his body that makes edge rushing easier. He has long arms and can win with quick and also show strength at times. He is very active and is looking to swat passes when he doesn’t get home. He has a solid swim move. He can drop into coverage and doesn’t look lost, but his ability to change directions quickly might harm him here.
What I did not like: More than anything, there were games where he just didn’t look the same. I mention this because in the Florida State and Georgia games, he was rather anonymous. That said, he did make single plays that were significant in both. He appears to be banged up and hampered by injury in both of those contests, so I would love to know his actual status as he played in both games. More than that, he gets hung up very often in pass rushes where OL get their hands on him and he is stuck. He can’t break free with his arms like the other premium guys can. He also looked slow on change of direction against Virginia where he misread a zone read and an end around and each time could not slam on the breaks and reaccelerate at a normal pace for a player in his position. He appears to have average quickness for his spot and can get outflanked against the run with a false step to the inside – especially in the NFL.
Summary: Like I said, this one is confusing. He appears to be more ideal to be the outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense, yet the open field quickness will surely be tested there. You watch 3 or 4 games and you generally feel like you know the player. This time, I feel like there are some very interesting aspects to his game that make him a 1st round idea and other aspects that look like an average draft-able LB that you shouldn’t overspend to get. I think that his hamstring injury at midseason cut down on his production (6.5 sacks, 13 TFLs), but then you even ask about the numbers he did accumulate because he had 3 sacks against Wake Forest alone. Is he a special player or is he a guy who flashes special qualities but cannot sustain it like you need if you are to spend a high pick on him? Like a few of his colleagues in this position group, I feel like I will need to revisit him and choose new games to zero in before the draft. As it stands, I think I see him in the 2nd/3rd rounds.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
D
Deuce
Guest
Not a fan. I've seen him come up small a lot in big games, especially when he had a real good talent opposite him last year.
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 130,499
2015 Draft Profile: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Todd Gurley, RB , Georgia – 6’1, 231 – Junior
As we move on to the running backs in this draft, let’s start with the premise that there are many talented backs in this crop. As many as 8 seem worthy of the Top 3 rounds before we dive in and give each the 200 snap treatment. We will attempt to look at all of them before we get to March.
Let’s also point out here and throughout this running back study that there are some very anti-running back thought movements in the NFL these days and in some cases, they seem based in fact and experience. But, sometimes, the pendulum swings too far. I am starting to think the casual stripping of RB value across the league is one of those cases where the media and fans assume that RBs are now available everywhere and for the smallest cost. This is just not accurate. Even in today’s game – where the RB is at its lowest stature ever, most of the dominant rushers are still Top 50 picks. Adrian Peterson was pick #7, Marshawn Lynch pick #12, and the idea that special is still special remains the same.
That is why with Todd Gurley, the premise that you don’t spend a premium pick on a RB is just foolish talk. He has every quality you seek in a game breaking runner. For his study we examined Clemson, South Carolina, and Tennessee which were most of our few choices from his abbreviated 2014.
What I liked: There is too much to discuss in this category. He is just silly in his ability with his size, his disposition, his relentless effort, and then his track-star speed. This combination of skills is rare as can be and makes many look to Adrian Peterson as a fair comp coming out of college. He absolutely does it all. He runs a fine screen game and has hands that can catch well. He is a willing and generally capable blitz pickup guy which is one of those prerequisites in the NFL. But, more than anything, he is one of those rare “every play may be a touchdown” running backs that is great when his line blocks, but he is able to make guys miss on his own and once he breaks through the line, almost no defensive back can pull off the combination task of catching him and then bringing him down. One guy doesn’t get him down very often. He will not be caught from behind. Gurley is the type of guy that doesn’t come around very often and when he does you have a hard time picking him apart. He falls forward, he is violent, and he doesn’t seem to wear out as the game goes along. He will make you talk to the screen a few times every game with feats of unique quality.
What I did not like: Well, clearly blowing out his ACL against Auburn better be top of mind when you are talking about a player who has speed traits that are uncommon. We feel better about the ACL process these days, but clearly that is where you would have to start if we were to report a concern. Beyond that, he doesn’t win all of his blitz pickups, but he is also often giving up 25 pounds to a linebacker. The only other nit-pick is that when he was hurt, his backup, Nick Chubb, was also very productive and put up huge numbers. I assume that means because Chubb is a guy we will talk about next draft, rather than that meaning Gurley isn’t the real deal.
Summary: Sometimes a guy comes along and just looks like he is playing with kids who are younger trying to stop him – yet, he is playing in the SEC where NFL prospects are on nearly every team he plays against. He is just a dazzling player with uncommon traits and a combination that can beat you in a number of ways. His ACL injury actually benefits a team like Dallas because maybe that is how a guy like that falls all the way to #27. I doubt he falls that far, but I have been asked a number of times if I would take him if he does drop to Dallas, despite the needs this team has elsewhere. My answer is not even required a 2nd thought. Absolutely. He is a guy who appears to be a stud and as close to a can’t miss prospect at RB that we have seen in a half-dozen drafts. I don’t know how he would get to #27, but it would require no hesitation. He is going to be something in the NFL.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.
Bob Sturm
I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn’t quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can.
Find all the profiles here.
Todd Gurley, RB , Georgia – 6’1, 231 – Junior
As we move on to the running backs in this draft, let’s start with the premise that there are many talented backs in this crop. As many as 8 seem worthy of the Top 3 rounds before we dive in and give each the 200 snap treatment. We will attempt to look at all of them before we get to March.
Let’s also point out here and throughout this running back study that there are some very anti-running back thought movements in the NFL these days and in some cases, they seem based in fact and experience. But, sometimes, the pendulum swings too far. I am starting to think the casual stripping of RB value across the league is one of those cases where the media and fans assume that RBs are now available everywhere and for the smallest cost. This is just not accurate. Even in today’s game – where the RB is at its lowest stature ever, most of the dominant rushers are still Top 50 picks. Adrian Peterson was pick #7, Marshawn Lynch pick #12, and the idea that special is still special remains the same.
That is why with Todd Gurley, the premise that you don’t spend a premium pick on a RB is just foolish talk. He has every quality you seek in a game breaking runner. For his study we examined Clemson, South Carolina, and Tennessee which were most of our few choices from his abbreviated 2014.
What I liked: There is too much to discuss in this category. He is just silly in his ability with his size, his disposition, his relentless effort, and then his track-star speed. This combination of skills is rare as can be and makes many look to Adrian Peterson as a fair comp coming out of college. He absolutely does it all. He runs a fine screen game and has hands that can catch well. He is a willing and generally capable blitz pickup guy which is one of those prerequisites in the NFL. But, more than anything, he is one of those rare “every play may be a touchdown” running backs that is great when his line blocks, but he is able to make guys miss on his own and once he breaks through the line, almost no defensive back can pull off the combination task of catching him and then bringing him down. One guy doesn’t get him down very often. He will not be caught from behind. Gurley is the type of guy that doesn’t come around very often and when he does you have a hard time picking him apart. He falls forward, he is violent, and he doesn’t seem to wear out as the game goes along. He will make you talk to the screen a few times every game with feats of unique quality.
What I did not like: Well, clearly blowing out his ACL against Auburn better be top of mind when you are talking about a player who has speed traits that are uncommon. We feel better about the ACL process these days, but clearly that is where you would have to start if we were to report a concern. Beyond that, he doesn’t win all of his blitz pickups, but he is also often giving up 25 pounds to a linebacker. The only other nit-pick is that when he was hurt, his backup, Nick Chubb, was also very productive and put up huge numbers. I assume that means because Chubb is a guy we will talk about next draft, rather than that meaning Gurley isn’t the real deal.
Summary: Sometimes a guy comes along and just looks like he is playing with kids who are younger trying to stop him – yet, he is playing in the SEC where NFL prospects are on nearly every team he plays against. He is just a dazzling player with uncommon traits and a combination that can beat you in a number of ways. His ACL injury actually benefits a team like Dallas because maybe that is how a guy like that falls all the way to #27. I doubt he falls that far, but I have been asked a number of times if I would take him if he does drop to Dallas, despite the needs this team has elsewhere. My answer is not even required a 2nd thought. Absolutely. He is a guy who appears to be a stud and as close to a can’t miss prospect at RB that we have seen in a half-dozen drafts. I don’t know how he would get to #27, but it would require no hesitation. He is going to be something in the NFL.
You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.