Pete Prisco had this guy going 24 to the Colts in his final mock if that is any consolation to anyone.
After thinking about it last night, this is my take on what probably happened.
The Cowboys got caught flat footed. Again. They were probably hoping that one of the OLs would last since OLs generally DO tend to fall, or in the alternative, at least Richardson (the "quick twitch" DT Jerry referenced) or very possibly even Vaccaro. They were quiet on him, but he went so soon ahead of them it might explain their next trade.
Since they had been expecting a guy they liked to be there, and had probably been expecting to stay put and take him, when Richardson and Vaccaro went off the board fairly late in the process, they hadn't been adequately working the phones to map out a trade down. So now at this point, late in the game, they've either gotta stick to their boards or they've gotta make an emergency trade down.
Sticking to their board means taking Floyd at this point, who apparently at least Jerry doesn't love (though clearly Ciskowski did -- probably Jerry apologists will say Jerry "listened to his coaches" in Kiffin, trying to find Kiffin a quick twitch prototype, and Floyd wasn't it). So Jerry overrules the Scout and possibly Jason Garrett and says to move down because he determines that Floyd isn't a fit for Kiffin.
I say this must be the case, because they admitted they had 19 first round grades on their board, and they were at pick 18. So there were still 2 players left with first round grades on the board, someone made an executive call not to take a first-round graded player at the 18th pick. Given Ciskowski's opposition to trading, I'm guessing Jerry made this call.
The thought process probably was, "We'll move down to the bottom of the round before the run on 2nd round OLs starts and we'll get our pick of them there." My guess? They were probably eyeballing Pugh, who they were rumored to love.
But since they don't have a lot of time to work the phones now, they kinda have to take the best offer out there. Apparently some other team also had a deal on the table for them and backed out. This is now screwing Jerry Jones because he's got a scout who wants to stay and take Floyd, but he's trying to max out the value for that pick now that all his elite players are gone, minus the one he has probably determined doesn't fit Kiffin.
So now Jerry takes a bad deal to try to salvage what is growing into a disaster. He doesn't do a horrible job -- a third rounder to move down that far is not the end of the world. I will take it in this draft knowing I didn't win the trade, but not feeling like I got robbed either.
Then, as I said, Pugh and Long go in the next two picks. I was shocked to see those picks go there and I bet the Cowboys were too. I guess that is the decision they thought they were making -- Floyd, or Pugh and a third. And they took Pugh and a third and then he wasn't there.
Now Frederick... he was a second rounder in most people's eyes. I'm guessing the team saw him that way too.
But I will give them this credit. He probably was one of their top 2nd rounders or indeed THE top 2nd round grade. Instead of getting cute and trying to trade down again to 40 and "match their grade on the player with the right pick" they just sat there at 31 and made the pick. So what they did is, properly identify that there was a run on OLs, and properly identify that they had a good player available to them, and instead of continuing to get cute to try to maximize value, they should just get the player in hand, even if early.
I can live with that decision.
They tried to line up value on with pick spot on Max Unger in 2009 and it backfired. Would Frederick have been an A pick at 45? Absolutely. But if they move down to 40 and tried to wait for him there, and then he went at 38, we'd be left holding the bag AGAIN.
Take the guy now and cut your losses. We can salvage this with a good draft still.