The Athletic: The Dak dilemma - Do teams succeed when they pay Tier 3 quarterbacks top-tier money?

[Cotton]

By Mike Sando Jul 29, 2019

The Dallas Cowboys appear poised to reward quarterback Dak Prescott with a fat contract extension sometime soon. The finer points of a deal cannot be known yet, but Prescott could realistically land among the NFL’s 10 highest-paid quarterbacks, perhaps with a deal similar to the one Carson Wentz signed with Philadelphia.

Prescott, 25, has exceeded even the Cowboys’ expectations for him, but with 55 coaches and execs in my 2019 Quarterback Tiers survey slotting Prescott 17th overall — he’s the third quarterback in Tier 3 — there is a compelling analysis to be done.

Using six years of QB Tiers results, I’ve stacked the highest-paid Tier 3 quarterbacks to see how their teams fared. Have teams succeeded while paying top-tier money to lower-tier quarterbacks? I’ve also researched highly paid quarterbacks from Tier 2, mindful that 16 Tiers voters placed Prescott in the second tier this year. The results set some early expectations for the Cowboys once Prescott becomes a paid man.

First, the bad news

No Tier 3 quarterback has reached the playoffs while signed to one of the NFL’s 10 richest contracts, as measured by average per year (APY).

Quarterbacks achieved Tier 3 status 59 times from 2014 through 2018. In eight of those cases, the Tier 3 quarterbacks also ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in APY. These quarterbacks’ combined starting record was 54-54-1 in those seasons.

“I feel bad for them,” a veteran coach said of the Cowboys, “because if they pay him $30 million a year or whatever, the expectation becomes so high, and I don’t think it makes you a better player.”

The table below shows the eight cases from 2014-18 of Tier 3 quarterbacks ranking among the top 10 in APY. Quarterbacks are ordered by winning percentage. Not included: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins, who are in that category for 2019.

Tier 3 QB	Yr	APY Rank	W-L
Alex Smith	2018	9th	6-4
Joe Flacco	2017	6th	9-7
Alex Smith	2014	10th	8-7
Kirk Cousins	2018	3rd	8-7-1
Joe Flacco	2018	10th	4-5
Carson Palmer	2017	10th	3-4
Ryan Tannehill	2015	10th	6-10
Jay Cutler	2014	7th	5-10

Now, the not-as-bad news

Prescott could be better than those Tier 3 quarterbacks listed above. Let’s assume, for the sake of this exercise, that Prescott is actually closer to a Tier 2 quarterback. It’s not such a stretch. Prescott was near the top of Tier 3 this year, only two spots behind Cam Newton. He put up Tier 2 numbers after Amari Cooper’s arrival.

Highly paid Tier 2 quarterbacks own a slightly worse regular-season record (216-220-2) than their highly paid Tier 3 counterparts, but some have gotten to the playoffs.

There were 29 instances of Tier 2 quarterbacks ranking among the top 10 in APY at the position from 2014-18 (Andrew Luck was the 30th case in 2017, but he did not play that season). Those quarterbacks reached the playoffs in eight of the 29 cases, posting a 7-8 postseason record that included Newton’s Super Bowl appearance.

The first eight listed in the table below are the ones who reached the playoffs, as denoted by the asterisks.

Tier 2 QB	Yr	APY Rank	W-L
Cam Newton	2015	6th	15-1*
Tony Romo	2014	8th	12-3*
Matt Stafford	2014	9th	11-5*
Eli Manning	2016	7th	11-5*
Russell Wilson	2016	8th	10-5-1*
Andrew Luck	2018	8th	10-6*
Russell Wilson	2015	2nd	10-6*
Joe Flacco	2014	3rd	10-6*
Matt Stafford	2017	1st	9-7
Russell Wilson	2017	8th	9-7
Andrew Luck	2016	1st	8-7
Matt Ryan	2015	7th	8-8
Colin Kaepernick	2014	6th	8-8
Joe Flacco	2016	3rd	8-8
Matt Ryan	2018	2nd	7-9
Kirk Cousins	2017	5th	7-9
Drew Brees	2016	2nd	7-9
Cam Newton	2016	10th	6-8
Carson Palmer	2016	7th	6-8-1
Derek Carr	2017	2nd	6-9
Matt Stafford	2018	5th	6-10
Eli Manning	2015	4th	6-10
Matt Ryan	2014	2nd	6-10
Philip Rivers	2016	9th	5-11
Derek Carr	2018	6th	4-12
Philip Rivers	2015	5th	4-12
Eli Manning	2017	10th	3-12
Joe Flacco	2015	8th	3-7
Jimmy Garoppolo	2018	4th	1-2

Do Tier 3 QBs ascend?

As the Cowboys prepare to make Prescott one of the highest-paid quarterbacks, they are essentially betting he’s a Tier 2 quarterback or will become one. That leads to a natural question: Do quarterbacks ascend from the third tier into higher tiers? They sometimes do, but usually only for a short time before falling back into Tier 3.

Newton provides the most hope, but the comparison is not perfect. He jumped from Tier 3 in 2014, the first year of the QB Tiers survey, before posting four consecutive years in the second tier. That four-year run included a Super Bowl appearance. Newton slipped into the third tier this year by the slimmest of margins, largely because of injury concerns.

The other quarterbacks who jumped from the third tier into the second had a harder time sustaining their newfound status:

• Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: After placing in Tier 3 for the 2014 and 2015 polls, Dalton sneaked into Tier 2 following a highly productive 2015 season that saw Cincinnati field a roster stacked along the offensive line and at the skill positions. Dalton settled back into Tier 3 in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 QB Tiers surveys.
• Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: Palmer’s trajectory mirrored Dalton’s as he jumped into the second tier following an exceptional 2015 season. Palmer then slipped back into the third tier.
• Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders: Carr polled in the third tier for 2015 and 2016, then jumped into the second tier for 2017 and 2018. He was back in the third tier this summer.
• Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings: Cousins has hovered near the border between the second and third tiers. He made it into the bottom of the second tier for the 2017 survey.

Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill and Sam Bradford all made at least four appearances in the third tier without ascending to a higher one. Prescott has landed in the third tier three times in three seasons.

Closing thoughts on Prescott

As the 2018 season wound down, I asked a salary-cap analyst how much he’d pay Prescott if the choice was his. This analyst said he would offer $15 million to $18 million a year, and then trade Prescott if the quarterback balked at such a relatively modest number. He called Prescott great for the Cowboys, but only at a low price. He did not think the Cowboys could realistically win a Super Bowl with Prescott as a highly paid starter.

This analyst projected at the time that Dallas could sign someone such as Nick Foles or Joe Flacco in free agency. Those quarterbacks are earning $22 million to $23 million a year. Both were below Prescott in QB Tiers balloting. All three are in the third tier.

“People always believe you should never guarantee money to anybody, never pay anybody, always collect draft picks and have optionality every year,” a different team exec said. “It is an unbelievable philosophy and I could not agree more, except it is not realistic. At some point, you have to commit to players. At some point, your locker room looks at you and says, ‘Hey, how do you treat people? What do you do? What is right?’ There is a culture, and it depends on how you build your team.”

The Washington Redskins faced a somewhat similar quarterback dilemma in recent years. They resisted paying Cousins near the top of the market. Cousins was, and still is, a low-Tier 2 or high-Tier 3 quarterback, like Prescott. He landed in Minnesota on a deal averaging $28 million a year, which was the third-highest APY in 2018.

“People crushed the Redskins for the way they handled Kirk Cousins and now people think Kirk Cousins is no good and you should never pay him,” the exec said. “You can’t have it both ways.”

The salary cap analyst referenced earlier was among those who thought Washington was smart for letting Cousins walk instead of paying him at such a high level. The Cowboys have made it clear that Prescott is their guy. Less clear: How big Dallas can win with Prescott earning Tier 1 money as a Tier 2-3 quarterback.

 

[Simpleton]

You have to be a literal moron to suggest signing Joe Flacco as a viable solution, and I'd even say the same about Foles to a lesser extent since I feel like the majority of his success has been manufactured in short bursts under a familiar system (Reid/Pederson). At any rate, to me Prescott is more Cam Newton than Alex Smith, and "Tier 1" money in 2019 is going to be "Tier 2-3" money by 2022 when Mahomes, Watson, Luck, Goff, and presumably Mayfield are all extended.

 

[Smitty]

Money aside, the experts (55 NFL coaches and execs) rate Prescott in a certain category of peers and it's not great news. Even for appropriate money (the one quote in this article suggests $15m-$18m a year), the relevant question is "Do Tier 3 QBs ascend?" and the answer seems to be.... no, not really.

Now, there is a first time for everything, and of course, this tier system only goes back to 2014 anyway, so there's relatively little data. I mean, there was never a Tony Romo before Tony Romo, there was never a Tom Brady before Tom Brady. So of course you must acknowledge that Prescott turning into a Russell Wilson type QB (and he's in Tier 1 in these rankings) is not out of the realm of possibility.

I will also posit that I think these rankings have him a little low, and he probably should be more on par with Cam Newton, who, the article does remind us, has flirted himself Tier-2-range, and that Newton went to a Super Bowl and had a chance to win it.

I also note on the list of "Top 10 APY Tier 2 QBs" (the list in which it notes only 8 of 29 have made the playoffs, even) -- I'm seeing some guys on it who clearly vascillate between Tier 1 and Tier 2 like Phillip Rivers. And while Rivers has never made the playoffs while a Tier 2 QB in the top 10 highest paid, he's still the same QB on the same team. What differs is his performance year to year and that his contract is probably no longer as highly ranked as it once was. Maybe he's outside the top 10 highest paid QBs now.

So the key to bucking this historical trend for Dallas will definitely be, Prescott has to overcome recent history of guys like Alex Smith, Joe Flacco and Kirk Cousins, and become a year-in, year-out Tier 2 QB; hopefully an UPPER Tier 2 QB. If he plays like he did the last 9 games of the season, I think that is reasonably within reach, but he must eliminate the periods of regression he has shown in his first three years.

The second key is, Dallas really, really needs to win this contract negotiation for once in their lives. They need to get him to a good, long term deal that compensates him fairly, but doesn't have him in the tippy top of QBs in terms of his annual contract value. Then as the contract ages, it will look even better.

If we can sell him on that, I may be able to live with it. If they turn around and his contract equals Wentz's deal, it's probably not great news for us, as this article demonstrates.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Money aside, the experts (55 NFL coaches and execs) rate Prescott in a certain category of peers and it's not great news. Even for appropriate money (the one quote in this article suggests $15m-$18m a year), the relevant question is "Do Tier 3 QBs ascend?" and the answer seems to be.... no, not really.
.

Are they polling the same people? Not really sure how their system works or the history of it. But if you ask 50 people their opinions every year about NFL players my guess is those 50 people's opinions won't change much. For example they have Dak in the same spot as the prior year. But most would say Dak looked a lot better in 2018 than he did in 2017. So why didn't he change at all? Probably because the same people's opinions aren't likely to change drastically.

 

[Smitty]

Are they polling the same people? Not really sure how their system works or the history of it. But if you ask 50 people their opinions every year about NFL players my guess is those 50 people's opinions won't change much. For example they have Dak in the same spot as the prior year. But most would say Dak looked a lot better in 2018 than he did in 2017. So why didn't he change at all? Probably because the same people's opinions aren't likely to change drastically.

I'm sure inherent bias is part of it. But don't expect me to buy that Prescott is rated too low by anonymously polled NFL execs, but not too high by a message board of Cowboys fans.

I think he's about 2 spots too low. I know we just went around and around about this, but his most recent season is one of below-replacement performance for half a season followed by what I'd call, per this survey, solid Tier 2 performance, or even high Tier 2. And that followed a prior season that was eerily similar but inverted in order. In fact, you can kind of compartmentalize Dak's performance stretches as follows, into what I'll label

"Super Rookie Plus" - Games 1-24 of his career.

He averages 229 ypg his rookie year, which is not enough for modern NFL offenses, but in 16 games, he throws 23 INTs and he throws only 4 INTs. His rating is 104. He completes 67% of his passes. His YPA is nearly 8, which is excellent. His team wins 13 games. There are signs that Prescott cannot carry the team, as he is riding behind an all-timer OL and a RB who looks like a Hall of Famer, and he still puts up the occasional performance where the offense seems to go stagnant mostly on his arm. He puts up clunkers against the Giants and Eagles twice each. He has a stretch of sub-200 yard passing days including an outing where the team has to eek out a low-offensive output victory. But for a young QB who was thrust into this role, he's exceeding all expectations, while you can admit he has work to do.

He follows up his rookie year with a first half of the 2017 season, his sophomore year, that is very similar. His completion percentage falls to 63% in this first half of 2017, and his YPA falls to only 7.0, in an alarming signal, but he replicates his passing performance with 227 ypg, almost identical to 2016. He throws 16 TDs to only 4 INTs in this 8 game span, coming close to the 23:4 ratio he achieved in a full year of 2016 (so his usage is up, but the ratio is similar, which is good). His rating is down a bit to 97.9, but still great for a second year QB. He goes 5-3, but two of those losses (a 30-35 loss to the Rams and a 31-35 loss to the Packers) are squarely on the defense. His performance should have been good for 7-1, and that's including just a let down day at Denver where everyone sucked. This portion of his career ends with the Elliott suspension and the breakdown of the elite OL.

"The Skids" - Games 25-39 of his career.

A very bad 15 game stretch - almost an entire season - where he looks lost. Not because of the coaching entirely, but Prescott himself. Yes, there was OL breakdown, and missing key players (Elliott, Bryant), but conceding that he cannot perform better than this without these players is basically an admission that he's a "low tier 3" -- a guy that cannot function when things aren't perfect around him, that cannot carry the team. This stretch remains a very concerning period because we have not seen him excel in the face of similar adversity yet, but he will eventually have to.

The numbers are abysmal. I'm not kidding when I say they compare to Quincy Carter and Colin Kaepernick. To close 2017, he throws for 188 ypg. He throws 6 TDs vs 9 INTs (this is 0.8 TDs to 1.1 INTs per game). His rating is 74. His yards per attempt is 6.5. He goes 4-4 down the stretch but is awful against Washington, awful against Oakland, and is awful against Philadelphia, in three of those wins.

For reference, Quincy Carter's "great" 2003 season was 206 ypg, a 10-6 record (like 5-3 extrapolated, or a bounce away from 4-4), 1.1 TDs per game to 1.3 INTs per game, 6.5 ypa, and a 71.5 rating.

To resume 2018, Prescott is better, but not good. In games 33-39, he goes 3-4. He throws for only 202 ypg. He throws 8 TDs (not enough in a half season), though again his INTs are low, only 4. The TD ratio is 1.1 per game, but the INT ratio is back down to only 0.6 per game. His completion percentage remains low-ish at 62%. His YPA climbs, but only to a still low-ish 6.88. His rating is remains low-ish, but at least respectful, at 87.4. He's doing this without a really competent option at all in the passing game, but again, this is defining him. Tier 1 QBs excel and make their catchers look great. Romo did this with Laurent Robinson. Prescott is bottoming out. Obviously the play calling is not helping, but this arrow remains pointed in the wrong direction for Prescott through Game 39, at the Amari trade. This horrific stretch at just the time he should be rounding into whatever form his career is going to take, is EXCEEDINGLY worrsime (it also makes the argument that the rookie numbers are worth equal amounts quite stupid.... QBs develop, and you want to see where they are developing to at this exact stage.... year two/year three).

"The Rebound of Hope"- Games 40-48 of his career.

Cooper arrives and a light switch seems to flip.

Prescott goes 7-2. He immediately sees a spike in his completion percentage. After not having completed more than 64% completion all year, and not more than 62% in a month, Prescott goes on a run of 68%, 72%, 69%, 71%, 86% and 78%, before he has a clunker in Indy. His overall completion percentage in this 9 game stretch (excluding playoffs) is 71%. He averages 274 ypg passing. He throws 14 TDs to 4 INTs (man, he's gotta get his touchdowns up, but this could be largely scheming). The INT ratio is again acceptably low at 0.4 per game. His rating is 103 during this stretch. He is at 7.71 ypa during this stretch -- nearly the 8 of his rookie season. He does have a little bit of an outlier game to finish the season against the Giants with 387 yards passing and 4 TDs which is inflating his totals a bit.

This is the stretch we are basing his future success on, as well as his new contract. These numbers compare favorably with the top QBs numbering about 6-10. He would be right there in rating with (from last year, if he could do it all year) DeShaun Watson, Carson Wentz, and Jared Goff (he would be ranked about 6th-7th overall). In YPA, he would be on par with Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger (would be ranked about 11th). In completion percent, he would be ranked second in the league behind Drew Brees. In yards, he'd be ranked 7th, right near Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, and Manning. He'd be on pace for 25 passing TDs and 7 INTs.... the INTs are good, the TDs would be a little low, putting him about with Newton, Trubisky, Watson, and (outlier) Rodgers, but his running game presumably cannibalizes a lot of his TDs. Presumably, their red zone performance also increases dramatically, if he takes a step forward.

7th in rating. 11th in YPA. 2nd in completion percentage. 7th in yards per game. 12th in TDs.

That's a tier 2 QB capable of winning every year.

We'll see.

A side note... again, all the numbers we want Prescott to put up, Wentz has already been there for the past two seasons, minus his injuries. There's just no logic to say Prescott has been better, he has not at all, since his rookie year.

But anyway, that's the argument for Prescott going forward. Let's hope he can replicate it. I think there's a chance he can, even if, subjectively, you rarely see "Tier 3" guys ascend to Tier 2 or Tier 1.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I'm sure inherent bias is part of it. But don't expect me to buy that Prescott is rated too low by anonymously polled NFL execs, but not too high by a message board of Cowboys fans.

Shit that was a lot of words for a simple question. Just like you're stubborn as hell of your opinion on players most other people are as well. So it stands to reason if you poll the same 50 people year after year their opinions won't change much. Because everyone can justify their opinion in their own minds. But maybe they don't. Maybe the group of coaches and executives that they poll every year are different. I have no idea. It's why I was asking. But if your opinion is that Dak needs help around him to be good, that opinion isn't going to change. You'll just assume that his better year is a result of better players around him (Which is true and true of just about any QB).

 

[Smitty]

Shit that was a lot of words for a simple question.

It was more of a tangent than just an answer to your question. I wanted to break down the stats that really justify where he is and why he's a Tier 3 at the moment, but also why there's hope that he's a Tier 2.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

It was more of a tangent than just an answer to your question. I wanted to break down the stats that really justify where he is and why he's a Tier 3 at the moment, but also why there's hope that he's a Tier 2.

Matthew Stafford has consistently been a tier 2 QB in their eyes. But why? The guy can't win shit. He is super erratic. He should be dropped into the tier 3 category at worst. But they continually hold him in high regard. I'm not talking about bias. Just that people who really like a guy are going to continue to really like a guy even if his performance doesn't match it on the field.

 

[Smitty]

Matthew Stafford has consistently been a tier 2 QB in their eyes. But why? The guy can't win shit. He is super erratic. He should be dropped into the tier 3 category at worst. But they continually hold him in high regard. I'm not talking about bias. Just that people who really like a guy are going to continue to really like a guy even if his performance doesn't match it on the field.

The guy can't win but his teams are also ass and have been forever.

Wins are never gonna be that valid in determining rankings like this.

Tony Romo never won shit either but he's a high-end Tier 2 in my book every day of the week, with a good chunk of his career spent in Tier 1, going by how it has these guys. If the criteria is mastery of the offense and the ability to carry your team week-in and week-out, then he has a handful of years where he met that criteria. The other years, he was "carrying his team sometime but not consistently" putting him solidly in Tier 2, ie, the 8-8 non-playoff seasons, he was the only reason those teams were 8-8, for example. They had ass defenses and ass offensive lines.

If Tier 3 is "needs help to succeed" then Dak has certainly been that so far. But again, the hope is there that he soon joins Tier 2.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The guy can't win but his teams are also ass and have been forever.

Wins are never gonna be that valid in determining rankings like this.

Tony Romo never won shit either but he's a high-end Tier 2 in my book every day of the week, with a good chunk of his career spent in Tier 1, going by how it has these guys. If the criteria is mastery of the offense and the ability to carry your team week-in and week-out, then he has a handful of years where he met that criteria. The other years, he was "carrying his team sometime but not consistently" putting him solidly in Tier 2, ie, the 8-8 non-playoff seasons, he was the only reason those teams were 8-8, for example. They had ass defenses and ass offensive lines.

If Tier 3 is "needs help to succeed" then Dak has certainly been that so far. But again, the hope is there that he soon joins Tier 2.

All that sounds great but Matthew Stafford is in no way a tier 2 QB. The guy puts up the most meaningless stats if you watch his games. He will suck out loud, fall way behind and then amass a bunch of garbage stats. He's just not that good of a QB. It's ridiculous how high they rank him year in amd year out. Their list clearly doesn't have the ability to react and adjust based on how he is really playing.

 

[Smitty]

All that sounds great but Matthew Stafford is in no way a tier 2 QB. The guy puts up the most meaningless stats if you watch his games. He will suck out loud, fall way behind and then amass a bunch of garbage stats. He's just not that good of a QB. It's ridiculous how high they rank him year in amd year out. Their list clearly doesn't have the ability to react and adjust based on how he is really playing.

Maybe. Or maybe he’s slightly overrated, and you are just as far off by claiming he sucks as the 55 NFL execs whose consensus is that he’s pretty good.

 

[L.T. Fan]

I think that currently Dak is rated about right. As I said a while back he doesn’t deserve top tier money yet and jones would be crazy to do so. Good to see some others are finally getting the message.

 

[L.T. Fan]

All that sounds great but Matthew Stafford is in no way a tier 2 QB. The guy puts up the most meaningless stats if you watch his games. He will suck out loud, fall way behind and then amass a bunch of garbage stats. He's just not that good of a QB. It's ridiculous how high they rank him year in amd year out. Their list clearly doesn't have the ability to react and adjust based on how he is really playing.

Stafford getting top tier money is no reason that Dak should do the same. Stafford is the beneficiary of some stupid people.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Stafford getting top tier money is no reason that Dak should do the same. Stafford is the beneficiary of some stupid people.

With or without the contract Stafford has always been ridiculously overrated. Guy can't hit the broad side of the barn half the time. Hell neither can Cam Newton but he can at least run really well.

 

[Rev]

I think that currently Dak is rated about right. As I said a while back he doesn’t deserve top tier money yet and jones would be crazy to do so. Good to see some others are finally getting the message.

The debate wasnt whether we thought he deserved it. It was whether he was going to or not.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Maybe. Or maybe he’s slightly overrated, and you are just as far off by claiming he sucks as the 55 NFL execs whose consensus is that he’s pretty good.

It's not really a consensus though. Consensus assumes everyone agrees. But they clearly don't. This is more akin to the average. Because some execs love some guys and some don't.

Most of the people who participated in that list wouldn't agree with the list.

 

[Smitty]

It's not really a consensus though. Consensus assumes everyone agrees. But they clearly don't. This is more akin to the average. Because some execs love some guys and some don't.

Most of the people who participated in that list wouldn't agree with the list.

Consensus doesn’t mean unanimous. 38 votes for Tier 3 for Prescott versus 16 for Tier 2. Better than two to one.

We are splitting hairs over the definition of a word maybe. The pretty vast majority believe he’s Tier 3.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Consensus doesn’t mean unanimous. 38 votes for Tier 3 for Prescott versus 16 for Tier 2. Better than two to one.

We are splitting hairs over the definition of a word maybe. The pretty vast majority believe he’s Tier 3.

We were talking about Stafford.

So the 1/3rd of execs and coaches opinions are wrong? That's far from a vast majority or consensus.

 

[data]

Eagles got the best of us in 2016 NFL Draft and it's going to haunt us for another 5 years.

 

[Smitty]

We were talking about Stafford.

So the 1/3rd of execs and coaches opinions are wrong? That's far from a vast majority or consensus.

Oh, I was thinking we were on Prescott again. 29% think he's Tier 2. 71% think he's worse than that. Pretty clear cut.

I forget what the votes were on Stafford.