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Ben Standig, Charlotte Carrolland more
Dec 15, 2022
When the NFL expanded the playoff field to 14 teams in 2020, it created the possibility of all four from one division reaching the postseason. With four games remaining, the NFC East is in position to accomplish that feat for the first time, with the Eagles (12-1) leading the division and the Cowboys (10-3), Commanders (7-5-1) and Giants (7-5-1) holding the three NFC wild-card spots.
Things will ramp up this week as Washington and New York meet again in prime time in the nation’s capital, just two weeks after tying at the Meadowlands. As we enter the final four weeks of the season, we asked The Athletic’s reporters from each team to share their thoughts on the playoff chase, Sunday night’s Giants-Commanders showdown and more.
Who wins Sunday night’s pivotal grudge match between the Commanders and Giants? Or should we expect another tie?
Jon Machota (Cowboys): Although they are only 3-3 at home this season, I think the Commanders will win Sunday night, 21-17. They’ve been the better team lately, losing only once in their last eight games. The Giants, who have only one win since Week 8, are trending in the wrong direction, still looking for their first division win (0-3-1). I don’t see both teams making the playoffs, so this could be what ultimately decides a playoff spot. Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders played well coming off their bye week last year, defeating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers 29-19 in Washington. Stats that jumped out from the game two weeks ago: Washington and New York were a combined 7-of-27 on third down. Washington had the ball for 12 more minutes and ran 17 more plays despite New York having one more possession.
Charlotte Carroll (Giants): Despite the Giants’ recent slump — they’re 1-3-1 since an early November bye week — I think they pull off the prime-time win. Or we get another tie, because that just feels appropriate for this matchup. Washington is coming off the bye and hasn’t had to think about anyone but New York since the last meeting, but the Giants are coming off their first real beatdown of the season. After keeping matchups close all year, I just don’t think they follow that up with a loss. The Giants had numerous opportunities to close out the tie with a win, and they hope to execute better on Sunday. But with the playoffs on the line, both teams know the stakes.
Ben Standig (Commanders): I’ll let Heinicke answer the second question: “Ties aren’t fun.” Resolution is a good thing. As for the game, Washington sports greater balance on both sides of the ball and has lost only one game since Week 5. The defense is particularly robust and ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) rush metric. Daniel Jones runs wild on this team no matter what, but limiting Saquon Barkley and jumping out to a quick lead would turn the Giants one-dimensional. Granted, the same applies to the Commanders’ offense, except there’s a deeper group of playmakers, led by Terry McLaurin. If Ron Rivera’s team avoids a post-bye hangover, it wins the game and clinches the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Bo Wulf (Eagles): If I’m judging by the way both teams looked last time they played the Eagles, well, the Commanders handed Philadelphia its only loss of the season, and the Giants were blown out 48-22 at home. But that’s obviously not how football works. I’m concerned about Barkley’s lack of explosiveness and the injuries on the Giants’ defense. The Commanders are at home and coming off their bye. I think they’re the better team and will pull it out at home.
Should the Cowboys’ near slip against the Texans be cause for concern?
Machota: I think the Cowboys overlooked the one-win Texans. There seemed to be a feeling that they could just turn it on whenever they wanted, which worked the week before when they exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Obviously, playing like that won’t get it done against the Eagles or any other playoff team. But I don’t take too much from either of their last two games. We’ll know what this Cowboys team really is when it hosts the Eagles on Christmas Eve. As long as it stays relatively healthy, Dallas is one of the top five teams in the league.
https://theathletic.com/3992339/2022/12/11/dallas-cowboys-win-texans/
Carroll: Maybe the coachspeak is finally getting to me, but a win is a win. It might not have been pretty, but Dallas at least escaped with no postseason hopes dashed. We’ll learn a lot more about this team come Christmas Eve. The Eagles just look leagues above anyone else lately, so that’s going to be a fun matchup.
Standig: Contenders look past cellar dwellers often, so I’ll view that near-upset as a blip more than a trend. That said, Dallas may look the part, especially with the Micah Parsons-led defense, but it’s been a long minute since the Cowboys thrived in the postseason. The great teams remain on point even against lesser competition. Win Sunday at Jacksonville and concerns fade. Stub their toe and the slip might start looking like a slide.
Wulf: In the grand scheme of things, it shouldn’t change our opinion much of the Cowboys. But they were definitely lucky to win the game given the Texans turned the ball over on downs from the 4-yard line. Dallas is still either the second- or third-best team in the conference. The Christmas Eve matchup with the Eagles is the most anticipated game of the rest of the season.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
If the playoffs began today, all four teams from the division would have a spot. Will this remain the case come Week 18?
Machota: I don’t see all four NFC East teams making it. I think it will be the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Commanders and Seahawks. I think Washington, Seattle and Detroit all get to nine wins, but Washington gets in at 9-7-1 and Seattle makes it at 9-8 because it has the tiebreaker over the Lions from defeating them in Week 4. That leaves the Giants on the outside at 8-8-1, with their only remaining win coming over the Colts in Week 17.
Carroll: That this is even still a discussion come Week 15 is impressive, given where the division predictions were ahead of the season. But as fun as it is to think about an NFC East playoff party, I think we’re looking at three rather than four teams. If my prediction holds that the Giants beat the Commanders, I’m looking at one more win for Washington (vs. Browns). I think the Giants pull out a Week 17 win against the Colts, and the Eagles rematch will depend on the personnel Philadelphia uses. The Eagles may have already clinched the bye, so it’s possible the Giants face off with Philadelphia’s second-stringers. That would likely mean a Giants playoff appearance rather than the Commanders.
https://theathletic.com/3991926/2022/12/11/nfl-playoff-picture-updates-week-14/
Standig: Sunday night’s loser faces a steep climb against the other. Both squads face stern challenges the following week — Washington travels to San Francisco, and New York visits Minnesota. The Commanders close with home games against the Browns and Cowboys. Charlotte mentioned the NFC East-leading Eagles might rest starters for Week 18, but the Cowboys might as well if they lock up the fifth seed. Seattle’s schedule is rough, while Detroit’s remaining slate includes three teams with losing records. Put me down for three NFC East teams, and since I see Washington winning this week …
Wulf: My friend Deniz has been chronicling the historic performance of the NFC East this season. It has a shot to be the best ever by at least one measure. But no, I think the loser of Sunday night’s game will be on the outside looking in at either the Seahawks or Lions.
Which starting QB in the division gives you the most confidence with a playoff game on the line? And which would you be least confident in?
Machota: Dak Prescott is the only quarterback in the division with a playoff win, so I’ll go with him. But I have no issue with anyone choosing Jalen Hurts. He’s played at an MVP level this season and can beat a defense in many ways. I don’t know if he’d have that same success on every roster, but he’s clearly an outstanding fit for what the Eagles are doing. Prescott hasn’t been great this season. He has thrown too many interceptions (nine in eight games), but he has the most playoff experience (four games) on his side. There’s a large gap between Prescott and Hurts and the other two QBs in the division. I’d take Heinicke third because he’s at least played in a playoff game and seems like the type of player whom teams can rally around. I’m least confident in Jones. He might not make the big mistake, but I don’t have much confidence in him making enough big plays to win a game in January.
Carroll: Watching Prescott and Hurts versus the Giants has given me a new appreciation for the quarterbacks. While Prescott impressed, Hurts just looked so poised in the pocket and on the run. With that recency bias, I’m going with Hurts as the QB I’d want in a playoff game. On the flip side of that, Jones is 0-9 in prime-time games. We’ll see if Sunday reverses the curse. But that’s a bad record when it comes to a nail-biting playoff finish.
Standig: Let me start with the least confident. Jones can scoot, but I’m not trusting his passing, and he’s no Heinicke in the clutch. As for the most confident, eh. I’ll go Prescott as the lone QB in the division with a playoff win, but that came over four starts. My concern with Hurts is inexperience, but also what happens when defensive coordinators with only one game on the docket have tunnel vision on keeping him hemmed in the pocket? But it’s not like I’m over the moon for Prescott, and therefore Hurts works for those riding that green-and-white wave.
Wulf: Jones for the latter. I won’t disparage Prescott, and his experience matters, but I’ve learned better by now than to doubt Hurts. He has answered every question along the way this season, with improved accuracy, timing and decision-making, while protecting the ball at an elite level. It’s hard to disentangle the effect of having A.J. Brown and an elite offensive line, but Hurts has all those things, and he’s been one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the league all year.
Dec 15, 2022
When the NFL expanded the playoff field to 14 teams in 2020, it created the possibility of all four from one division reaching the postseason. With four games remaining, the NFC East is in position to accomplish that feat for the first time, with the Eagles (12-1) leading the division and the Cowboys (10-3), Commanders (7-5-1) and Giants (7-5-1) holding the three NFC wild-card spots.
Things will ramp up this week as Washington and New York meet again in prime time in the nation’s capital, just two weeks after tying at the Meadowlands. As we enter the final four weeks of the season, we asked The Athletic’s reporters from each team to share their thoughts on the playoff chase, Sunday night’s Giants-Commanders showdown and more.
Who wins Sunday night’s pivotal grudge match between the Commanders and Giants? Or should we expect another tie?
Jon Machota (Cowboys): Although they are only 3-3 at home this season, I think the Commanders will win Sunday night, 21-17. They’ve been the better team lately, losing only once in their last eight games. The Giants, who have only one win since Week 8, are trending in the wrong direction, still looking for their first division win (0-3-1). I don’t see both teams making the playoffs, so this could be what ultimately decides a playoff spot. Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders played well coming off their bye week last year, defeating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers 29-19 in Washington. Stats that jumped out from the game two weeks ago: Washington and New York were a combined 7-of-27 on third down. Washington had the ball for 12 more minutes and ran 17 more plays despite New York having one more possession.
Charlotte Carroll (Giants): Despite the Giants’ recent slump — they’re 1-3-1 since an early November bye week — I think they pull off the prime-time win. Or we get another tie, because that just feels appropriate for this matchup. Washington is coming off the bye and hasn’t had to think about anyone but New York since the last meeting, but the Giants are coming off their first real beatdown of the season. After keeping matchups close all year, I just don’t think they follow that up with a loss. The Giants had numerous opportunities to close out the tie with a win, and they hope to execute better on Sunday. But with the playoffs on the line, both teams know the stakes.
Ben Standig (Commanders): I’ll let Heinicke answer the second question: “Ties aren’t fun.” Resolution is a good thing. As for the game, Washington sports greater balance on both sides of the ball and has lost only one game since Week 5. The defense is particularly robust and ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) rush metric. Daniel Jones runs wild on this team no matter what, but limiting Saquon Barkley and jumping out to a quick lead would turn the Giants one-dimensional. Granted, the same applies to the Commanders’ offense, except there’s a deeper group of playmakers, led by Terry McLaurin. If Ron Rivera’s team avoids a post-bye hangover, it wins the game and clinches the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Bo Wulf (Eagles): If I’m judging by the way both teams looked last time they played the Eagles, well, the Commanders handed Philadelphia its only loss of the season, and the Giants were blown out 48-22 at home. But that’s obviously not how football works. I’m concerned about Barkley’s lack of explosiveness and the injuries on the Giants’ defense. The Commanders are at home and coming off their bye. I think they’re the better team and will pull it out at home.
Should the Cowboys’ near slip against the Texans be cause for concern?
Machota: I think the Cowboys overlooked the one-win Texans. There seemed to be a feeling that they could just turn it on whenever they wanted, which worked the week before when they exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. Obviously, playing like that won’t get it done against the Eagles or any other playoff team. But I don’t take too much from either of their last two games. We’ll know what this Cowboys team really is when it hosts the Eagles on Christmas Eve. As long as it stays relatively healthy, Dallas is one of the top five teams in the league.
https://theathletic.com/3992339/2022/12/11/dallas-cowboys-win-texans/
Carroll: Maybe the coachspeak is finally getting to me, but a win is a win. It might not have been pretty, but Dallas at least escaped with no postseason hopes dashed. We’ll learn a lot more about this team come Christmas Eve. The Eagles just look leagues above anyone else lately, so that’s going to be a fun matchup.
Standig: Contenders look past cellar dwellers often, so I’ll view that near-upset as a blip more than a trend. That said, Dallas may look the part, especially with the Micah Parsons-led defense, but it’s been a long minute since the Cowboys thrived in the postseason. The great teams remain on point even against lesser competition. Win Sunday at Jacksonville and concerns fade. Stub their toe and the slip might start looking like a slide.
Wulf: In the grand scheme of things, it shouldn’t change our opinion much of the Cowboys. But they were definitely lucky to win the game given the Texans turned the ball over on downs from the 4-yard line. Dallas is still either the second- or third-best team in the conference. The Christmas Eve matchup with the Eagles is the most anticipated game of the rest of the season.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
If the playoffs began today, all four teams from the division would have a spot. Will this remain the case come Week 18?
Machota: I don’t see all four NFC East teams making it. I think it will be the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Commanders and Seahawks. I think Washington, Seattle and Detroit all get to nine wins, but Washington gets in at 9-7-1 and Seattle makes it at 9-8 because it has the tiebreaker over the Lions from defeating them in Week 4. That leaves the Giants on the outside at 8-8-1, with their only remaining win coming over the Colts in Week 17.
Carroll: That this is even still a discussion come Week 15 is impressive, given where the division predictions were ahead of the season. But as fun as it is to think about an NFC East playoff party, I think we’re looking at three rather than four teams. If my prediction holds that the Giants beat the Commanders, I’m looking at one more win for Washington (vs. Browns). I think the Giants pull out a Week 17 win against the Colts, and the Eagles rematch will depend on the personnel Philadelphia uses. The Eagles may have already clinched the bye, so it’s possible the Giants face off with Philadelphia’s second-stringers. That would likely mean a Giants playoff appearance rather than the Commanders.
https://theathletic.com/3991926/2022/12/11/nfl-playoff-picture-updates-week-14/
Standig: Sunday night’s loser faces a steep climb against the other. Both squads face stern challenges the following week — Washington travels to San Francisco, and New York visits Minnesota. The Commanders close with home games against the Browns and Cowboys. Charlotte mentioned the NFC East-leading Eagles might rest starters for Week 18, but the Cowboys might as well if they lock up the fifth seed. Seattle’s schedule is rough, while Detroit’s remaining slate includes three teams with losing records. Put me down for three NFC East teams, and since I see Washington winning this week …
Wulf: My friend Deniz has been chronicling the historic performance of the NFC East this season. It has a shot to be the best ever by at least one measure. But no, I think the loser of Sunday night’s game will be on the outside looking in at either the Seahawks or Lions.
Which starting QB in the division gives you the most confidence with a playoff game on the line? And which would you be least confident in?
Machota: Dak Prescott is the only quarterback in the division with a playoff win, so I’ll go with him. But I have no issue with anyone choosing Jalen Hurts. He’s played at an MVP level this season and can beat a defense in many ways. I don’t know if he’d have that same success on every roster, but he’s clearly an outstanding fit for what the Eagles are doing. Prescott hasn’t been great this season. He has thrown too many interceptions (nine in eight games), but he has the most playoff experience (four games) on his side. There’s a large gap between Prescott and Hurts and the other two QBs in the division. I’d take Heinicke third because he’s at least played in a playoff game and seems like the type of player whom teams can rally around. I’m least confident in Jones. He might not make the big mistake, but I don’t have much confidence in him making enough big plays to win a game in January.
Carroll: Watching Prescott and Hurts versus the Giants has given me a new appreciation for the quarterbacks. While Prescott impressed, Hurts just looked so poised in the pocket and on the run. With that recency bias, I’m going with Hurts as the QB I’d want in a playoff game. On the flip side of that, Jones is 0-9 in prime-time games. We’ll see if Sunday reverses the curse. But that’s a bad record when it comes to a nail-biting playoff finish.
Standig: Let me start with the least confident. Jones can scoot, but I’m not trusting his passing, and he’s no Heinicke in the clutch. As for the most confident, eh. I’ll go Prescott as the lone QB in the division with a playoff win, but that came over four starts. My concern with Hurts is inexperience, but also what happens when defensive coordinators with only one game on the docket have tunnel vision on keeping him hemmed in the pocket? But it’s not like I’m over the moon for Prescott, and therefore Hurts works for those riding that green-and-white wave.
Wulf: Jones for the latter. I won’t disparage Prescott, and his experience matters, but I’ve learned better by now than to doubt Hurts. He has answered every question along the way this season, with improved accuracy, timing and decision-making, while protecting the ball at an elite level. It’s hard to disentangle the effect of having A.J. Brown and an elite offensive line, but Hurts has all those things, and he’s been one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the league all year.