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By Bob Sturm 11m ago
On one hand, there are plenty of folks who have enjoyed all of the media draft work that has been done for 100 days only to see the Cowboys show us that we can read the tea leaves all we want and still not see the train coming right at us.
On the other hand, perhaps they were the ones hit by the train and are now spinning the story to appear as if they were playing chess while the rest of us were stuck on checkers all along.
Either way, the Cowboys telegraphing cornerback on the build-up to the NFL Draft and then leaving with the best linebacker on the board is another chapter of trying to figure out and understand a Dallas’ war room that doesn’t want to be figured out.
A few days after the Cowboys retired a Penn State linebacker who they were proud to have drafted, they now hope Sean Lee can be quickly replaced by another Penn State linebacker in young Micah Parsons. The 21-year-old has had a bit of a winding road to arrive in Dallas with a reputation that precedes him in both playmaking and trouble-making.
I suppose neither should be a foreign concept around here, but let us hope it is far more of the former than the latter now that he is being chosen and paid to transform the Cowboys defense as much as one player can since they drafted Morris Claiborne in 2012.
That Claiborne idea failed badly, of course. But three other times the Cowboys drafted a defensive player higher than pick No. 12 with Parsons last night, and DeMarcus Ware (No. 11 in 2005), Terence Newman (No. 5 in 2003), and Roy Williams (No. 8 in 2002) complete that list. Two of those were fantastic players who did everything that was asked of them and Williams fizzled way too fast after Darren Woodson left his side.
Can one player fix this defense? And can that one player have been their third idea behind Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain?
It can happen. This is the NFL draft and the uncertainty of every move you want to make, tried to make but failed, and even had another team pull your guy right before you wanted to grab him is the way this works. Best intentions fail miserably and mistaken plans turn into gold. You just won’t know in real-time.
So, let’s check this one out before we turn to Day 2.
We had our theories about projecting this draft in a way that put Dallas at No. 10 in a position to take the best defensive player on the board, even though 1957 was the last time that has happened (no defensive player in the top nine picks). Well, we absolutely whiffed on that projection.
The first seven picks went about as normal as possible, with nothing but good news for Dallas. In fact, with two QBs still on the board, they now needed someone to talk Carolina and/or Denver out of their spots in a trade to get those guys, or maybe even Denver getting on top of the QB situation themselves — instead of picking both corners. This is where we cannot crawl into their heads and see if Chicago was calling before going to No. 11 to get Justin Fields. New England had to know that if Mac Jones was in their sights, there was probably no incentive to rush up since he would probably fall to them once we saw the San Francisco bluff for what it was all along.
Instead, their fears became clear that when Horn went off to Carolina (as had been feared for quite a while), now they had to hope that Denver was going in a different direction than Surtain. This made sense, especially given the rumors that they were hot on the Aaron Rodgers trail. But to walk away from Fields seems like something Denver will regret if that other trade never materializes.
But, what the Broncos do is up to them. Once upon a time, they stole Paxton Lynch from the Cowboys’ grasp and Dallas had to settle for Dak Prescott. Who can honestly say? Alas, they took Surtain and the Cowboys then seemed disappointed.
Now, they would tell us after the fact that Parsons was the guy all along. And yes, sources confirm what was said publicly that Parsons was a higher grade on their draft board than either Horn or Surtain. They are not making that up at all.
However, those same whispers suggest that when push comes to shove, the Horn/Surtain vs Parsons (with the higher grade) would have been a problem they wrestled with until the final bell. There is no such thing as “following your board” when the stakes are that high in this room. If you have a 9.5 over here, but this 9.4 is a plug-and-play no-brain corner who fits your current situation better, things get thorny. But, Denver took that off the table.
Next, if you love Parsons so much at 10 and we believe that New York is at least considering him at 11, do you just stay there and take him and let the Eagles twist on DeVonta Smith? Apparently not. When you can add pick No. 84 to step back and let the Eagles hit the Giants with a flying elbow, the Cowboys took that trade of No. 10 for No. 12 and No. 84. Profit was made according to the charts and Dallas still got Parsons at No. 12.
What about Chicago trying to get up for Fields and ultimately giving the Giants next year’s first-rounder to fall back to No. 20? I am told Dallas wasn’t offered quite as much and didn’t have great interest in falling back 10 spots instead of getting a top 5 guy on their board in Parsons. If the Cowboys fall back to No. 20, they would be settling for a player without the same impact level Parsons can provide.
What is that, exactly?
In the weeks to come, I will put Parsons under the microscope plenty. But, for now, allow me to go back to what I wrote about him in February. I think this is particularly helpful to analyze a player before you know what team he will be joining to not allow your mind to twist the answer to something we all like. There is no question in re-reading my report that I found him to be a top prospect.
Positives: This is a robust category for Parsons. He is absolutely a physical freak with a crazy wingspan, size and speed that tell us he is your guy if you just want a banger of a linebacker who will patrol things for a long time at a high level. He is a physical, downhill player who is a real bull in a china shop. He picks through traffic with expert precision and finds his target. He is mobile and finds multiple gaps and plays at high speeds. He wants to take on blocks, play soundly and do all the things you expect of a top linebacker. He usually reads the play and beats the blocks to the ball. He is a real force of nature and his close-down speed is elite.
Concerns: The Ohio State offensive game plan used a lot of misdirection to target him and that gave me some pause, but again, this tape was a true sophomore probably trying to do too much and then having a team feeding him the cheese he liked to eat. That game made me question some processing speed and mental acuity, but the rareness of that tape suggests it was a bad day and a kid trying to do more than he should. The other concern is more of an issue for 2021 and beyond — he doesn’t really cover players from what I can tell, aside from some basic zone drops and while I think you can scheme out quite a bit of it (and also maybe he is capable of it), it should be noted that there is almost no real tape that I can find of Parsons doing much coverage. There are also plenty of whispers that he might have some character concerns off the field that will make teams nervous. While I will acknowledge I know about them, I don’t wish to do more than that since it is merely wild speculation to those of us on the outside.
Overall: I want to resist the urge to use “High First Round” grades on players who do not play premium positions and also players who do not play coverage from a run-and-hit linebacker spot, so I won’t, but I do think when you get past those 7-8 guys who will get them, this is exactly the type of player someone in Dallas’ spot would have a hard time ignoring if they wanted to really take the best player available. He looks freakish and, yes, a difference-maker. FIRST-ROUND grade and probably should have gone higher than that, to be honest.
He is a superb athlete and a freakish talent. I was told by one NFL scout that he may well be the biggest competitor in the draft. Here is how he tested and you will see some significant scores in the 90-plus percent range which show a blinding speed LB that wrecks things.
To compare, Zaven Collins and Jamin Davis are also first-round linebackers from Thursday who ran a 4.65 and a 4.47. There is much more to it than that, but if you want to talk about athletic comps, Bobby Wagner comes quickly to mind. Sprinkle in the competitive spirit and if that football IQ can be harnessed and he has learned from his off-field concerns (the Cowboys said they did their homework), then we are in business.
Again, more on Parsons in the next few weeks — I promise.
Here is Wagner — Wagner and Ryan Shazier are both pretty similar and are often compared to what this league seeks at the position.
And here are the numbers for Devin White out of LSU who made Tampa Bay very happy to have a destroyer like this at the second level.
Both Wagner and White have better shuttle times, but Parsons seems that type of freak. The mind will decide if he can measure up — but if he can at that size? Wow.
So, this is where we have the talk about why I didn’t think they would pick a linebacker in Round 1 and why today it makes more sense.
It has to do with me dabbling in the economics principle about the “sunk cost” fallacy. You can find much better minds than mine, but according to this definition, the sunk cost fallacy looks like this:
Only prospective (future) costs are relevant to a rational decision. At any moment in time, the best thing to do depends only on current alternatives. The only things that matter are the future consequences. Past mistakes are irrelevant. Any costs incurred prior to making the decision have already been incurred no matter what decision is made. They may be described as “water under the bridge”, and making decisions on their basis may be described as “crying over spilt milk”. In other words, people should not let sunk costs influence their decisions; sunk costs are irrelevant to rational decisions.
I believe the minds in the Cowboys war room are better at this — ignoring sunk costs — than I am. I did not give Parsons much thought because I have been frustrated about the amount of investment Dallas has put in Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. I wanted Dan Quinn to “fix them” so the future decisions would not be at this spot and they can fix corner or the defensive line.
I think that makes me a victim of worrying about these sunk costs, right? They don’t matter, though. The costs were already paid. It is, in fact, water under the bridge.
The best thing to do Thursday night was to take the player who most affects your future. And the case is easily made that for the prices, grabbing Parsons and a nice third-rounder is a great idea. I wish Smith and Vander Esch could be fixed. In the end, the only question worth our time is: Are the Cowboys better than they were 24 hours ago?
The only answer to that seems to be a clear affirmative.
Below is my Sturm 60 with the names already taken in red. Dallas has four picks Friday (44, 75, 84 and 99) and it can move up easily to the top of Round 2 by using the 44th and 99th picks if a dance partner is willing. This is the day that will determine the Cowboys’ success or failure in the 2021 draft.
They really need to make this day count. They have the ammunition to do exactly that. Expect two big swings at the defensive backs, in particular. I predict a safety and a corner being the main hauls on Day 2. Defensive line should also be close by. Four new names to digest Saturday morning — I will see you then.
