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By Bob Sturm Mar 11, 2021
“These are unique and unprecedented times.” — everyone, 2020 and early 2021
Given that we have no idea how to handle the NFL with a shrinking and temporary salary cap, we are left to wildly speculate what lies ahead in the NFL silly season. Perfect.
Starting next week, we will see teams begin to navigate these uncertain waters. Here is the thing: It is probably uncertain only to us on the outside. The owners have been carefully looking over the projection spreadsheets that get locked in with the new TV and streaming deals that basically mean they will have their windfall of billions shortly, but it might be delayed enough for them to pass along the 2020 losses to the players in the form of a receding salary cap for 2021.
That sounds wonderful to owners who always love to pass on losses to someone else — the players are the familiar target — but at the same time, now the owners have to best sort out how to continue to compete in this climate of shrinking caps. In the Cowboys case, this is particularly uncomfortable.
Given that the Dak Prescott situation is finally in the rearview mirror as well as some hand-picked restructures that Dallas not only does with routine these days, but intentionally plans them into their total strategy like clockwork.
But here is where things get really complex and speculative. With the cap at $182.5 million, yet believing that the money is going to go up very quickly, it is impossible to predict how free agency will look this year.
Teams are still going to want to improve their teams, but the top-end deals may look very different. The good news here for Dallas is that they haven’t signed anyone to a top-end deal in free agency since Brandon Carr in 2012 (unless you wish to use the Amari Cooper deal last year as a “free-agency buy” which, I guess, technically is correct.)
So, here is where it could really help out Dallas. The safety market is wide open with great bargains that will have a real opportunity for the Cowboys to find a solution or two at very below-market prices.
I think.
This is the issue. We have no idea how this will play out. Will there be next to no activity in free agency this year or will there be a frenzy of the highest order as players snap up any offer so as not to miss out on a job for the fall? Will the players adjust their reasonable expectation levels and take one-year deals to get back to free agency for a 2022 season where the cap might be $225 million and everyone has big bucks? Or will teams have business-as-usual procedures underway and simply write their deals with much of the money built into future years rather than in this squeeze year of 2021?
We can only guess.
Let’s look at this safety free-agent pool and marvel at how full it is. Given that safety is not traditionally a premium position and given how many “starting-caliber” free agents are at this position, we can safely say that the top five will get their money, but after that, we can expect bargains to exist.
Free Agent Safeties - Top Tier
| PLAYER | CURRENT TEAM | AGE | ESTIMATED PRICES |
|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Simmons | Denver | 27 | Franchised |
 Anthony Harris | Minnesota | 29 | $12-$14 aav |
 Marcus Williams | New Orleans | 24 | Franchised |
 Marcus Maye | New York Jets | 27 | Franchised |
 John Johnson | Los Angeles Rams | 26 | $12-14 aav |
This is the top tier of safeties and it is a decent list. Several were tagged and I expect the others to find deals pretty quickly. It would be great to have the resources to make a play for Anthony Harris or John Johnson, but that just isn’t realistic for Dallas.
Now on to the very long list of “others” who check boxes for this defense.
The next player on our list — arguably the sixth-best available safety — is someone are all be familiar with and know pretty well. I assume the discussion on “would we rather keep Xavier or switch him out with fill-in-the-blank alternative” has been going on since Dan Quinn was hired.
Allow me to review what I wrote about this quandary in December.
Xavier Woods — 25 years old — 3,530 snaps in four seasons: As you can plainly see, they paid the least for this player and got the most from him among the 2017 draft class (Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis). He has been durable, dependable and he has been decent for much of his time at safety. I will tell you, though — we just haven’t seen much growth in the last few years. In fact, you could say he has gone the other direction. If we saw linear growth from 2017 to a peak in 2020, I would say go do this deal. Instead, I have been disappointed to see him running away from Antonio Gibson, jogging as Lamar Jackson takes off for the end zone and generally displaying a grumpy attitude when Dallas was daring to look at upgrades like Earl Thomas to fill his position. I wanted to see the player who some of my fellow draft nerds saw, but he just never seemed to grow much. Even worse, Donovan Wilson looked like a better — or, at the very least, comparable — player with a nearly identical profile almost immediately, and therefore you must ask yourself what that says when you look at what a free agent wants.
Luckily, Woods plays a position where teams pay for elite, but the rest are not generally locked down for mind-boggling money. In this case, I see a lot of comparables out there in the range of three years, $18 million: Tre Boston with Carolina, Vonn Bell with Cincinnati and Eric Murray with Cleveland all got that exact deal, with Chuck Clark signing with the Ravens at three for $15 million. Each of those players is in Woods’ age range, too. This shows us the monetary difference between corner and safety.
If I can keep Woods at Anthony Brown’s money, I have to do it, right? But I probably stay at the $5 million to $6 million-per-year range, and I obviously continue to look to pair him with an elite safety if I can find one. I don’t think Woods and Wilson are a good pairing, as they are too much alike. Maybe that answers my own question; if Wilson can play as well, why pay Woods? Well, remember, Woods plays almost every game while Wilson has never stayed healthy for long. That right there might be worth the three years for $16.5 million or so it would take to keep him. I would have no problem either way, so I can make this offer and put the ball in his court.
Verdict: Pass unless he takes the Anthony Brown contract.
Now, this is the question. Is Woods available for $5 million to $6 million AAV? And if he is, do you keep down this path? I can see a case to be made, but frankly, Rod Marinelli doesn’t live here anymore. Neither does Kris Richard or even Mike Nolan. You can see the new administration wanting a fresh start and a more accomplished player. I am tempted to look elsewhere and I believe the 2021 market says there are some very interesting options in Tier 2.
Here are those squarely on my radar:
Free Agent Safeties - Bargain Tier
| PLAYER | CURRENT TEAM | AGE | ESTIMATED PRICES |
|---|---|---|---|
 Malik Hooker | Indianapolis | 25 | $2-4m AAV |
 Keanu Neal | Atlanta | 25 | $4-6m AAV |
 Tre Boston | Carolina | 28 | $2-3m AAV |
 Tashaun Gipson | Chicago | 30 | $2-3m AAV |
 Ricardo Allen | Atlanta | 29 | $3-5m AAV |
 Earl Thomas | Free Agent | 32 | $2-3m AAV |
Yes, I did go there. But, before we discuss Earl, let’s give each of these six players a little look.
Malik Hooker — 25 years old — 2,246 snaps in four seasons: This was the best free safety in the 2017 draft out of Ohio State (LSU’s Jamal Adams was the best safety overall). He has been exceptional when he has been on the field, and really everything he was projected to be. The issue, of course, is what keeps him from being at the top of the top tier — health. ACL in 2017, foot injury in 2018, and the Achilles blowout in 2020 are the reasons the Colts didn’t activate his fifth year and the reason he will be on the market before his 25th birthday and expected to be offered numerous low-level deals to revive his career. There is every reason to believe he can be had at a huge bargain for a player of his caliber if you can stomach the possibility he might get hurt again, might not be fully fit for the spring, and almost certainly will want a one-year prove-it deal. I think Dallas would probably agree to those terms and be more than willing to pay him if he does prove it. But there will be all sorts of competition at this price point for his services. He has plenty of blemishes, but without them, he wouldn’t be available.
Keanu Neal — 26 years old (by Week 1) — 3,430 snaps in five seasons: Neal has those Quinn ties for sure and is best known as a box safety — more of the Kam Chancellor type — in those single-high defenses Quinn is known for. He also has the double of a 2018 ACL and a 2019 Achilles tendon that have taken him out of nearly two full years, but he played a full season in 2020 and was not the reason the Falcons struggled. He is a fine player, but he’s not the center field you’re looking for. That said, he would most likely be an upgrade and has plenty of knowledge of what is needed in the scheme.
Tre Boston — 29 years old — 5,724 snaps in seven seasons: If you want durable free safety play that is at least league average, this is your guy. Since he became a starter in the NFL about 2016, he is always on the field and his coverage grades are always pretty rock solid. But he also leaves something to be desired because he ends up changing addresses just about every season. He is always available, which provides a very similar view to someone like Woods. If he is not that expensive, why is his current team always looking for a better option? He can be had, but Panthers-Chargers-Cardinals-Panthers since 2016 might say that all that glitters is not gold. On the other hand, these are the types of players available at this price point.
Tashaun Gipson — 30 years old — 8,291 snaps in nine seasons: This is almost exactly like Boston in that Gipson is seemingly always available but also always sought after as a do-everything safety who never lacks a starting spot in the league. Teams are quick to sign him but also quick to look for an upgrade when the cap gets tight. Given price tag and skill set, Boston or Gipson might be the best fits and elicit the best results but also not draw the interest that others on this list will.
Ricardo Allen — 29 years old — 5,006 snaps in six seasons: This one was unexpected, but when the Falcons decided to cut the cord on a veteran player who is highly regarded as a room guy and a solid center-field option, my radar did go up. He was a cornerback who was converted to free safety and he has always been a part of defenses that never seemed good enough. Allen seemed to generally be well regarded until the talent around him kept dropping. He also had an Achilles tendon injury in 2018, like seemingly everyone on this list, and dealt with a concussion in 2020, but for the most part, he has been dependable and might instantly raise the IQ in the secondary. I am pretty interested in this possibility.
Earl Thomas — 32 years old — 9,710 snaps in 11 seasons: Oh, the apple of the eye of Cowboys football since that day in December of 2017 when he told Jason Garrett that the Cowboys should come get him. Trouble is, he has gone from the solution to, apparently, a big enough problem that the Ravens told him to pack his bags. He certainly seemed to have enough off-the-field issues that his allure has dropped so much that no team signed him after his release in 2020. Does Quinn know him well? Yes, but is the juice worth the squeeze anymore? And would the publicity of his signing be worth an upgrade in play that might be accomplished by others on this list without so many worn-down body parts? I know this, we should not take his name off the board when we are talking about this franchise.
Now, here is the funny thing about my list: I didn’t mention at least a half-dozen others who have solid resumes. Jaquiski Tartt, Rayshawn Jenkins, Bradley McDougald, Erik Harris, Duron Harmon, and yet another Falcons safety under Quinn in Damontae Kazee (another Achilles tendon recipient in 2020).
The facts are pretty clear: With almost 20 decent safeties on the market and only about five teams with cap space (and they might be chasing high-impact positions), there will be bargains to be had. Expect the Cowboys to dip their toes in these waters.
