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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
The time for talking has pretty much expired as Tuesday is the final day for tag designations in the NFL. By Tuesday at 3 p.m. CT, we will know which teams have decided to place tags on their potential free agents and which will risk them getting into the open marketplace.
There is no question that the Cowboys are right near the front of these discussions as they usually are. We have three names to discuss as it pertains to contract adjustments or tags, all of which could certainly justify their own written piece. We have Amari Cooper, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dalton Schultz to discuss and their futures in Dallas therein. But, given that each deserves his own space, we shall accommodate each situation as best we can. My very capable colleague, Jon Machota, has already written several thoughts on Cooper and a few additional offerings on Schultz.
I will try to tackle it from a different viewpoint. I will hire myself as a key decision-maker for the Cowboys. It has always been my tongue-in-cheek goal throughout, anyway. Let’s try this out.
What should the plan be with Amari Cooper?
Important information: Cooper turns 28 this summer and has three years left at a total of $60 million. Only $6 million of that is guaranteed right now, but in 13 days, it moves to the entirety of his 2022 money ($20 million) will get locked in. With that in mind, the Cowboys have been trying to get him to talk about pay cuts as well as hoping to see what his trade value is around the league.
Deliberation: This one is really difficult for me to talk through because I must concede that they probably have a true No. 1 receiver waiting in the wings with CeeDee Lamb and they also have seen that the trade market for a $20 million-a-year WR who is not producing like one is very weak. He is still the only receiver in NFL history to hit the $100 million mark and on a per/year basis, only DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones have exceeded his money.
But, since Cooper has signed his deal, he is 16th in receptions, 20th in targets, 18th in yardage, 43rd in YAC, 18th in receiving 1st downs, 18th in receiving touchdowns and 53rd in yards per reception.
We could argue that he is not used well enough in this offense, as I am sure he would. Teams with a player of this caliber make him one of the biggest priorities of the offense, usually, but for whatever reason, he is 20th in targets. When it comes to the real number that should matter here, it is probably receiving yards per game where he is 26th at 63.8 yards per contest. Three players are in the “over 90 yards per game” group for the past two seasons — Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp. Three more are “over 80 yards per game” in Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs and Calvin Ridley (with TE Travis Kelce). Three more are “over 75 yards per game” in Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel and Hopkins. By the time we get to Cooper at 26th on the list, we are below Corey Davis, Tee Higgins and Diontae Johnson. I am sorry, but there is no way that I can be down there for $20 million a season.
There are questions about other elements about his game that include his emotional flat-lining at times, but I don’t think that bothers me as much as others. I want a guy who dictates coverage and still produces at a very high level. Dallas probably will tell you that it has tried to feature him more, but it doesn’t believe he is an Adams, Kupp or Chase — or even a Diggs, Hill, Samuel or Hopkins. In other words, they are paying elite money for non-elite production and play.
Outcome: There is no way this is a better team without Cooper, but if you wish to diversify your portfolio and make this offense function more without forcing the ball to one guy — as it appears everyone has concluded — then it is time to build this around Lamb’s skill set and fill in with an entire group that makes less than Cooper’s annual money. I don’t love this, but this is the most defendable position to take. Release Cooper.
What should the plan be with DeMarcus Lawrence?
Important information: Lawrence turns 30 next month and his last season was not his best work as he broke his foot and only played in seven regular-season games. However, he was dominant in his eight games with the team, getting better grading than even Micah Parsons. He remains a very excellent player, but his money is an issue. The Cowboys owe him $40 million over the final two years of his massive deal, but because of restructures that have already occurred, you are hearing his cap number this year is $27 million. They have reportedly asked him to take a pay cut and it is reported he has refused to this point.
Deliberation: This one is complex for me and much more so than dealing with Cooper. With Cooper, you have a player who potentially has a better understudy in Lamb. There is no such thing with Lawrence at defensive end and to make matters more difficult, Randy Gregory is out of contract on the other side. Moving Parsons to edge would nullify a huge part of his value and I am not interested in that.
I think Lawrence plays at a very high level and although that is more difficult to quantify than Cooper because of the statistical evidence of a player without the ball, we should say this. Pro Football Focus graded him as the best run-stopping edge in the NFL in 2021. I would concur from my film study that he was tremendous. His pass rush win percentage — ability to beat his man — was higher than Khalil Mack, Shaq Barrett and Matthew Judon and was easily top 20 in the league.
Since signing his deal in 2019, he has led the Cowboys in splash plays, sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles and pressures that led to throwaways. He had not missed a game between 2016 and 2021 and had demonstrated the willingness to play hurt and to play through a lot. His cap number is high, but given the Cowboys’ desire to restructure, that is their problem.
Outcome: I do not blame the Cowboys for trying to get him to take a haircut. I also do not blame Lawrence for telling them to take a hike. If they can add a year to his deal and make the money more manageable, fine. But, I would be strongly against breaking up with Lawrence at this point of his career. He is not in decline and he is vital to this defense. He stays. I repeat, he stays.
Dalton Schultz (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
Should they franchise tag Dalton Schultz?
Important information: He turns 26 this summer and is an unrestricted free agent who has absolutely put up massive numbers at precisely the correct time. His 1,423 yards in the past two seasons have him seventh in the NFL among tight ends. Even more impressively during that time frame, he has the fourth most receptions among tight ends and the fourth-most receiving first downs. He has proven to be durable and stays on the field in an offense that uses him tremendously. There is only one offensive player who has played more snaps in the last two years.
Deliberation: The conversation about Schultz should never be one where we discuss if he can be an NFL starter. He clearly can do that and be an option in your offense who can move the chains, block some and be fine. He has proven to be worthy of a nice payday that will pay him more at signing than he has made in his NFL career ($3.9 million). The question becomes when we start talking about using the franchise tag on a player who is limited. I say that because he is not an excellent receiver, nor is he an excellent blocker. And before I am told about his numbers that made him an excellent fantasy football option, I think it is vital to understand that in real football, we are not looking for the raw numbers, but the proper context. And the proper context is that he never was a vertical threat, never was a coverage objective, and never was more than a proper third or fourth option on most plays. He was a very capable dual-threat tight end who could help balance the offense, but because of his size, blocking was never easy. Because of his skill set as a receiver, he has and always will be a checkdown guy or a bootleg TE who can run a bit. But, make no mistake, in a league where the best tight ends are coverage headaches and basically larger wide receivers with dynamic fluidity and catch skills, Schultz is not that.
I examined the projected tag number of $11 million for tight ends and any extension with Schultz would likely end up in that area on annual value. I certainly don’t believe Schultz is up in that range. Tyler Higbee signed a four-year, $29 million deal ($7.25 million AAV) in 2019 and that is probably adjusted for inflation closer to four years, $32 million in today’s money. I would likely go to $8 million a year on Schultz, but if we have learned something here with Dallas is that it has paid elite money for nice players too often. You have to reserve franchise-tag money for legitimate franchise-tag players and at TE, we know who they are. George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts have all had defenses deal with them first as the biggest threat to the attack. Schultz has never and likely will never be treated that way.
Outcome: If I cannot “draft for need”, then I sure can not franchise tag for need, either. There is no universe where Schultz is an $11 million to $12 million a year tight end in my view with almost no catches vertically down the field unless it was a busted coverage. If the idea in the war room is to let Cooper go to make sure we can pay Schultz, I will shed a tear for common sense. Is there a price where I do a deal with Schultz? Sure. But, it isn’t way up there. I don’t think I would prefer him to Higbee, but I am willing to do that deal. Otherwise, let someone else put $50 million on him. No to the franchise tag for sure.
There you have it. I submit this for your review and look forward to hearing your thoughts. Huge week and we will know about the franchise tags by Tuesday. This is about to get interesting.
