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By Bob Sturm 3h ago
Well, it is “go” time. In one week, we will be sitting here with a Morning After column from the first game of the season. That game is probably well-considered the toughest game on the NFL schedule in 2021. You can probably argue, but playing the defending champions at their place on “banner night” in front of the world, when they are fully healthy and fully rested and returning all 22 starters? I mean, if any game should be considered a difficult start to the season, this is it. On the other hand, if you have to play a game you are expected to lose in a situation like this, you might as well get it over with.
Now, there will be problems all over the field. Dak Prescott will be taking his first snaps since “the snap” and this offensive line hasn’t been together in full form since … well, these five have never played a game together. And talk about a defense that can smother you, the Buccaneers held the Chiefs to nine points in the last game they played — one you may recall occurred in this same stadium. Blake Jarwin will be taking his first snaps since Week 1 of last year and the stadium will be plenty loud. For those many reasons, the Cowboys should likely not plan on an offensive fireworks show to support the “new look” Dan Quinn defense.
Why do they have a new look defense? Because the last one has a notorious history of 2020 failure that will be tough to shake.
If you need to know why this is where the Cowboys need to focus all of their efforts, consider the following from the Mike Nolan legacy of silly defense in 2020:
• No Dallas Cowboys team in 61 seasons had allowed even close to the 473 points that defense conceded. Not even close.
• No Dallas team had allowed 34 passing touchdowns until 2020.
• No Dallas defense had allowed a passer rating of 100 for an entire year until 2020.
• Only one Dallas defense — the 2013 group — allowed more yards per game than this defense.
• Only one Dallas defense — the 1960 expansion team — allowed more points per game.
• Only two Dallas defenses — 1960 and 2000 — allowed more rushing yards per game.
• And only one Dallas defense — that same 1960 expansion team that went winless — allowed more yards per carry and that was only a fractional difference of the width from a thumb to a forefinger.
Yikes. I trust you have tried to forget about that mess, right?
The league did not. They saw Quinn’s task. And he will have more doubters than believers at this point. Why not? The Cowboys barely added a free agent for any sort of investment. Mostly one-year deals and mostly for very little. They have some interesting pieces, but you also must know that if they were offered bigger money elsewhere, it probably would have been taken. The Cowboys swooped in when the prices dropped and that generally tells you a bit about the purchases.
Then came the draft. I certainly have been complimentary of the Cowboys’ efforts on draft weekend where it appears they have added significant talent to this defensive unit. And that is the only way to rebuild — through significant talent additions. But those players are just NFL babies. It will take a while.
Let’s use some visual aid. Before we can ponder what is possible, let’s see how the two-deep looks different from 2020 to 2021.
First, last season. Check out the two-deep and examine the red cells as players who are not on this new roster. These players are listed by snaps taken in 2020. Therefore, I am not listing the starters as much as I am listing the guys who played the most in this historically silly season.
2020 Dallas Defense - 2 Deep
| POSITION | PLAYER | PLAYER |
|---|---|---|
| DE |  Demarcus Lawrence | Randy Gregory |
| DT-3 |  Tyrone Crawford | Neville Gallimore |
| DT-1 |  Antwaun Woods | Justin Hamilton |
| DE |  Aldon Smith | Everson Griffin |
| LB |  Jaylon Smith | Sean Lee |
| LB |  Leighton Vander Esch | Joe Thomas |
| CB |  Trevon Diggs | Chidobe Awuzie |
| CB |  Anthony Brown | Daryl Worley |
| Slot |  Jourdan Lewis | |
| SS |  Donovan Wilson | Steven Parker |
| FS |  Xavier Woods | Darian Thompson |
Quite a lot of red there.
Now, 2021. Here, notice in blue all of the new names added to the two-deep. That is more than just a few names and guys like Chauncey Golston are not even included. Let alone the return of Trysten Hill who I thought was rather effective before his ACL injury.
2021 Dallas Defense - 2-deep
| POSITION | PLAYER | PLAYER |
|---|---|---|
| DE | Demarcus Lawrence | Tarell Basham |
| DT-3 |  Osa Odighizuwa | Neville Gallimore |
| DT-1 |  Carlos Watkins | Quinton Bohanna |
| DE |  Randy Gregory | Dorance Armstrong |
| LB |  Micah Parsons | Azur Kamara |
| LB | Leighton Vander Esch | Jaylon Smith |
| LB |  Keanu Neal | Jabril Cox |
| CB | Trevon Diggs | Kelvin Joseph |
| CB | Anthony Brown | Nahshon Wright |
| Slot | Jourdan Lewis | Maurice Canady |
| SS | Donovan Wilson | Jayron Kearse |
| FS |  Damontae Kazee | Malik Hooker |
Anytime you add 14 new pieces to a lineup, you would have to concede that anyone saying they don’t see the changes, upgrades or the difference from last year must be watching some other team. These guys are clearly different and that is a huge step.
But, we should also readily admit that change is not hard. Proper change is. And that is what we want to ponder here.
You could argue that the evidence in the preseason is not terribly convincing that this thing is poised for a turnaround of significance on defense this year.
I would counter that by saying we have not seen this whole defensive personnel unleashed yet, nor have we seen much of the scheme. We are still speculating how much Cover 3 we will see and the underneath zones that go with it. We were conditioned to not expect blitzing, but we know the Cowboys have pass-rushing weapons at linebacker now and if they don’t exploit this, they are not doing a smart thing. They also have more speed than we have seen in a long time and that alone equips them for much of what ailed them last season — especially assuming now they can handle the runs between the tackles at least at a mediocre level.
And that is where you should want to get.
WHAT?
Yes, I said it. Average. Middle of the road. Just mediocre.
The definition of mediocre is plainly put: “of only moderate quality; not very good.”
For lack of that definition when it comes to stopping the run or the pass, let’s just call it this. The goal for 2021’s Cowboys defense must be “average” and for me, that will be 16th or 17th in the NFL rankings.
We look at 22 different defensive metrics on a week-by-week basis for Dallas.
Instead of 23rd for yards per game allowed, they need to get to 16th.
Instead of 31st at stopping the run, they need 16th.
28th in points against?
25th in explosives allowed?
19th in sacks per attempt?
22nd in yards per pass attempt?
26th in opposing passer rating?
Get to average. Get to the dead-bang middle of the NFL.
Of those 22 metrics, the Cowboys were above 15th in just two.
They were seventh in takeaways per game. That is horribly misleading because they got them all when they enjoyed playing backup QBs when the season was dead and gone. Mostly after Thanksgiving. I wrote about that this summer.
The other was passing yards per game allowed. They were 11th. We could argue that this was explained in that teams had such easy success running that they never were forced to try to throw a ton, but I am willing to concede that this one might be legit.
Fine. Give them one or two of the 22 metrics as “average or better.”
But that still leaves the other 90 percent and that 90 percent defines a defense that was horrendous. They need to flirt with 15th in most of them to get to being a contender. And I think that is very possible with some simple organization and effort in their play.
Is that the real goal? Of course not. In Year 2? We will want better than average. We will hope for a top-10 defense, but that will require even more talent and the maturation of all of the kids on this defense. It isn’t easy to jump to the NFL and right into the fray. But, that will be in 2022.
For now? What do we want to see? An average NFL defense. With a top-5 offense and an average defense, do you know what you might have?
A contender. It has happened. One side of the ball is near the top and the other is right in the middle. That must be the goal for 2021 and if it works out, double-digit wins will follow.
At least that is the plan.
Shoot for mediocre, DQ.
