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Sorting Through the Cowboys Draft Plans
With a little over a week to go, what I hear, think, and believe about their draft strategy.
BOB STURM
APR 17, 2024
There are times when I completely understand how our school kids feel when spring hits. They cannot wait until they don’t have to go to science class anymore and can do something else with their days.
I imagine those in the war-rooms of the 32 teams are feeling the same way. The draft looms as a massive part of team building and now it is, finally, almost here. Can we just get to drafting? I think with so many things on this sports plate right now, watching yet another Washington Huskies film from November might be my version of science class. I enjoy learning new things, but this semester has taken forever.
Regardless, I have five players to evaluate and then I will feel like I have a good handle on where the Cowboys are going to be looking on Days 1 and 2. That is all us normal men should attempt, in my opinion.
Day 3 should primarily be teams taking the best players, regardless of position. Add quality players to your roster and be willing to let them continue their development. Effectively let them help on special teams and with organizational depth.
But, today is about a few things and how I feel the wind is blowing on each of them, so let’s whip through some Frequently Asked Questions about this draft:
Will the Cowboys look to trade up, trade down, or stick at No. 24?
This one is easy for me. I list it at about a 1% chance they trade up, maybe a 19% chance they stick, and 80% chance they trade down. I have believed this all along and it fits with their entire offseason.
Dallas will pick at No. 24 in a draft where they will not have close to 24 1st round evaluations. I believe they will be around 15 or so.
Now, you probably have heard me goof on these grades in the past because you can have 1 or 1,000 first-round grades and the fact is there are 32 picks in the 1st round every year. History will prove that this means there will be 32 players who are first-round picks and that is the only thing that matters.
Having said that, they have too many glaring holes and not enough picks. Also, the chasm between pick 87 and 173 is going to drive them (Jerry, in particular) crazy as they watch the names disappearing and the holes remaining.
So, as you look above, the best way to add picks here is to trade back from No. 24 and to pick up something to bridge the gap between their 3rd rounder and their compensatory 5th rounder.
This is their hope a dream world.
A website known as Drafttek made this handy guide to the Dallas draft from a points standpoint:
So, to make this easy to see, Dallas has 1,263 points available in this draft and would probably not want to dip into their 2025 draft to fix this issue. They have these seven picks:
Pick No. 24 - 740 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
That alone is 1,235 of their 1,263 points. In other words, 97.8% of their entire haul is right here.
Then, they wait for these last four picks on Day 3.
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
Those last four picks are exactly 28.8 points out of 1,263 which is just 2.2% of their weekend.
So, when we talk about dropping back in the 1st round to see what that might be worth, this is what we are trying to accomplish.
What are a few ideas to drop back and pick up picks?
Ok, this is where we can waste a lot of time.
Say Buffalo wants to jump up to No. 24 to get that wide receiver of their dreams. They have pick No. 28 and multiple fourth and fifth-round selections.
Could the Cowboys trade No. 24 (740) for the Buffalo 1st - No. 28 (660), their best 4th - No. 128 (44), and their best 5th - No. 144 (34).
Dallas is trading 740 points and receiving 738 points.
I would probably do that without any hesitation.
What if the Chiefs call?
The Chiefs offer their 1st - No. 32 (590), their 3rd - No. 95 (120), and their 5th - No. 159 (27.8) puts you at 740 points out and 737.8 back.
I actually like this one slightly better, depending on whether you think your center can get to pick 32, because the 3rd I get back puts me in a great spot to be able to tick off many more of my needs.
Regardless, these are both cases of exchanging out my best pick to add two more picks before I would pick again at No. 174.
If I do the Buffalo trade, the weekend turns into this:
Pick No. 28 - 660 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
Pick No. 128 - 44 points
Pick No. 144 - 34 points
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
I kind of like this possibility.
Now, here is what it would look like with the trade back with the Chiefs:
Pick No. 32 - 590 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
Pick No. 95 - 120 points
Pick No. 159 - 27.8 points
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
I love this one. I get four picks in the top 95 and add another Day 3 guy.
Let’s call one of these two in.
What is the best news about this Cowboys draft?
Easy one. That the Cowboys draft needs are actually fitting well with supply. I think this is completely dumb luck, but we can also consider that this reality informed some of their spring decisions.
They need tackle, center, running back, and linebacker help.
I think that they can use their Day 1 and 2 resources and probably address all four of those with a trade back or stay in there and knock out three of the top four needs and hope for the best.
There are years where the supply-and-demand situation will not work out, but this year is actually perfect. They have needs and the draft has the guys.
At tackle, there are probably 12 different guys I think have a chance to be strong. Interior OL has a good supply, too. Running back? There might be 9 to 10 guys I like between picks 60 and 100. I just think this is possible to pull off. I am an eternal optimist, but I think I dig how this is falling right now.
What are the names to watch at Pick No. 24?
Below, I have listed my grades that I have done so far. I have yet to rank inside a grade. So, to define, I have 13 “first-Round” grades. The order of them will be ranked soon, but so far, I have not done it. Right now, the order of the stack is based on what order I evaluated them. I know, it might not make sense.
So, at pick No. 24, the most likely names for the Cowboys to stand in and pick are:
The insiders seem to be sliding him back a bit and I don’t know what’s going on. Based on his film, I would take him at No. 24, but the draft intelligencia is moving in a different direction.
Fautanu is likely gone before you pick or he would be very tough to pass on.
2024 NFL Draft Profile: Duke OL Graham Barton
I do have tentative plans to compare Mims vs Guyton vs Suamataia one more time before draft day because I now have more film than I had when I made my first pass and I want to freshen up my views on Monday if possible.
What are the names to watch if they trade back to around picks 28-32?
I think it is the same group, but they might not be comfortable with a guy like Guyton at No. 24, but if they can add a 3rd, they would feel great later. So, I would say any remainders from above and then three more names that work for me.
2024 Draft Profile: BYU's Kingsley Suamataia
In both cases, I am not saying it is impossible they don’t throw us a curve ball by taking a DT or a LB, but I don’t see a match there and I am pretty committed to OL help and I believe they are, too.
We know I have been wrong before, but this is where my head is at.
Ok, then what do you figure the plan is on Day 2?
Well, of course, so much of the plan on Day 2 is going to be based on variables that the Cowboys have zero control over. Watching 31 picks disappear between your pick at No. 24 and being back on the clock at No. 56 is a rather unpleasant waiting game. But, that is how this whole thing works.
This is a very high “curveball” area where we should widen our net to what Dallas might be looking at here. It does seem the Cowboys media world has agreed as a consensus group that the idea is to use those three picks – four if that trade down can happen – on the best options at the following spots:
In fact, I would be willing to bet that they have Brooks from Texas as their highest RB and would probably be willing to pull the trigger on him at No. 56. That seems rich for me as he heals from an ACL, but again, it doesn’t matter what I think. The Cowboys are going to do what they think and since Dr. Dan Cooper did his surgery, they will have some intimate knowledge of his medicals.
Let’s just say if they take him at No. 56, you are not allowed to be surprised – even if he is the first RB off the board.
NFL Draft Profile - Texas' RB Jonathon Brooks
The other thing I will say about this is as a general rule, I think they want their RB to be a bigger guy this time around. Not huge, necessarily, but I would be surprised if they drop below a weight of 210 or 215 this time. That probably only eliminates Bucky Irving and maybe Blake Corum, but Jaylen Wright and Ray Davis may be borderline, too.
The more I try to figure out what the Cowboys are thinking, the more we look at Brooks, Benson, Estime, and Lloyd as the four most likely options.
I would also pound the table for linebacker. Yes, DeMarvion Overshown is back and I am not willing to give up on Damone Clark, yet. But, with Mike Zimmer and Erik Kendricks are in, I suspect tiny Markquese Bell is back to safety. Leighton Vander Esch is retired, so if one of my three attractive linebacker options is there in Round 2, I am totally in:
I think there is a good chance they are all gone, but in my vision, that is where I am looking right now.
I would wait on RB in Round 2, but I bet they will look there first and LB next unless some particular player is hitting them in the face.
If you get those two rounds how you want them, what about pick No. 87?
Ok, the third-round pick is going to be a precious commodity. I want to reiterate; they need to trade back in the 1st round so that this isn’t their only pick between No. 56 and No. 174. You cannot have just one pick over 118 selections without going a bit insane given the numerous holes on your roster.
But, let’s just assume they have one pick at No. 87. What is the plan?
I would first like to direct you back to a piece from last month. I think the Cowboys might look at center like they have a few reasonable internal options to start at a certain point.
What that means is that if they don’t get one of those top three centers: Barton, Powers-Johnson, or Frazier, they might roll with TJ Bass or Brock Hoffman and see what is on the unsigned list these days. Connor Williams is still on the streets, for instance. Wouldn’t that be something?
FILM STUDY: Internal Offensive Line Options
On the other hand, if we get to the 3rd round, we should know the net will be much wider. For instance, this is where an upgrade at slot corner, wide receiver, or edge rusher would be tough to pass on.
Yes, No. 87 is where you would grab a QB if one was there. Two things on that wild idea, you already spent your 4th on a QB so this would hurt and the odds of Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt being there at No. 87 are roughly slim and none.
But, the driver of any business late on Friday night is simply the reality that we have no idea what will be available. In a perfect world, I would love one of my OL guys to fall to me, so I will list the non-1st round OL and you can start praying:
So, in short, No. 87 is a place where you would like to sweep up your RB because you took a more pressing need at No. 56. Because unless you are looking at RB, I think most of the buffet table will be pretty picked over by that time of night.
I hope this all helps sort it out a bit in your head. Please feel free to review any and all profiles you wish as we put the final touches on the Sturm 60 and it will be time to draft.
With a little over a week to go, what I hear, think, and believe about their draft strategy.
BOB STURM
APR 17, 2024
There are times when I completely understand how our school kids feel when spring hits. They cannot wait until they don’t have to go to science class anymore and can do something else with their days.
I imagine those in the war-rooms of the 32 teams are feeling the same way. The draft looms as a massive part of team building and now it is, finally, almost here. Can we just get to drafting? I think with so many things on this sports plate right now, watching yet another Washington Huskies film from November might be my version of science class. I enjoy learning new things, but this semester has taken forever.
Regardless, I have five players to evaluate and then I will feel like I have a good handle on where the Cowboys are going to be looking on Days 1 and 2. That is all us normal men should attempt, in my opinion.
Day 3 should primarily be teams taking the best players, regardless of position. Add quality players to your roster and be willing to let them continue their development. Effectively let them help on special teams and with organizational depth.
But, today is about a few things and how I feel the wind is blowing on each of them, so let’s whip through some Frequently Asked Questions about this draft:
Will the Cowboys look to trade up, trade down, or stick at No. 24?
This one is easy for me. I list it at about a 1% chance they trade up, maybe a 19% chance they stick, and 80% chance they trade down. I have believed this all along and it fits with their entire offseason.
Dallas will pick at No. 24 in a draft where they will not have close to 24 1st round evaluations. I believe they will be around 15 or so.
Now, you probably have heard me goof on these grades in the past because you can have 1 or 1,000 first-round grades and the fact is there are 32 picks in the 1st round every year. History will prove that this means there will be 32 players who are first-round picks and that is the only thing that matters.
Having said that, they have too many glaring holes and not enough picks. Also, the chasm between pick 87 and 173 is going to drive them (Jerry, in particular) crazy as they watch the names disappearing and the holes remaining.
So, as you look above, the best way to add picks here is to trade back from No. 24 and to pick up something to bridge the gap between their 3rd rounder and their compensatory 5th rounder.
This is their hope a dream world.
A website known as Drafttek made this handy guide to the Dallas draft from a points standpoint:
So, to make this easy to see, Dallas has 1,263 points available in this draft and would probably not want to dip into their 2025 draft to fix this issue. They have these seven picks:
Pick No. 24 - 740 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
That alone is 1,235 of their 1,263 points. In other words, 97.8% of their entire haul is right here.
Then, they wait for these last four picks on Day 3.
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
Those last four picks are exactly 28.8 points out of 1,263 which is just 2.2% of their weekend.
So, when we talk about dropping back in the 1st round to see what that might be worth, this is what we are trying to accomplish.
What are a few ideas to drop back and pick up picks?
Ok, this is where we can waste a lot of time.
Say Buffalo wants to jump up to No. 24 to get that wide receiver of their dreams. They have pick No. 28 and multiple fourth and fifth-round selections.
Could the Cowboys trade No. 24 (740) for the Buffalo 1st - No. 28 (660), their best 4th - No. 128 (44), and their best 5th - No. 144 (34).
Dallas is trading 740 points and receiving 738 points.
I would probably do that without any hesitation.
What if the Chiefs call?
The Chiefs offer their 1st - No. 32 (590), their 3rd - No. 95 (120), and their 5th - No. 159 (27.8) puts you at 740 points out and 737.8 back.
I actually like this one slightly better, depending on whether you think your center can get to pick 32, because the 3rd I get back puts me in a great spot to be able to tick off many more of my needs.
Regardless, these are both cases of exchanging out my best pick to add two more picks before I would pick again at No. 174.
If I do the Buffalo trade, the weekend turns into this:
Pick No. 28 - 660 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
Pick No. 128 - 44 points
Pick No. 144 - 34 points
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
I kind of like this possibility.
Now, here is what it would look like with the trade back with the Chiefs:
Pick No. 32 - 590 points
Pick No. 56 - 340 points
Pick No. 87 - 155 points
Pick No. 95 - 120 points
Pick No. 159 - 27.8 points
Pick No. 174 - 21.8 points
Pick No. 216 - 5 points
Pick No. 233 - 1 point
Pick No. 244 - 1 point
I love this one. I get four picks in the top 95 and add another Day 3 guy.
Let’s call one of these two in.
What is the best news about this Cowboys draft?
Easy one. That the Cowboys draft needs are actually fitting well with supply. I think this is completely dumb luck, but we can also consider that this reality informed some of their spring decisions.
They need tackle, center, running back, and linebacker help.
I think that they can use their Day 1 and 2 resources and probably address all four of those with a trade back or stay in there and knock out three of the top four needs and hope for the best.
There are years where the supply-and-demand situation will not work out, but this year is actually perfect. They have needs and the draft has the guys.
At tackle, there are probably 12 different guys I think have a chance to be strong. Interior OL has a good supply, too. Running back? There might be 9 to 10 guys I like between picks 60 and 100. I just think this is possible to pull off. I am an eternal optimist, but I think I dig how this is falling right now.
What are the names to watch at Pick No. 24?
Below, I have listed my grades that I have done so far. I have yet to rank inside a grade. So, to define, I have 13 “first-Round” grades. The order of them will be ranked soon, but so far, I have not done it. Right now, the order of the stack is based on what order I evaluated them. I know, it might not make sense.
So, at pick No. 24, the most likely names for the Cowboys to stand in and pick are:
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, Center, Oregon
- Troy Fautanu, Tackle, Washington
- Graham Barton, Center, Duke
- Amarius Mims, Tackle, Georgia
- Tyler Guyton, Tackle, Oregon
The insiders seem to be sliding him back a bit and I don’t know what’s going on. Based on his film, I would take him at No. 24, but the draft intelligencia is moving in a different direction.
Fautanu is likely gone before you pick or he would be very tough to pass on.
2024 NFL Draft Profile: Duke OL Graham Barton
I do have tentative plans to compare Mims vs Guyton vs Suamataia one more time before draft day because I now have more film than I had when I made my first pass and I want to freshen up my views on Monday if possible.
What are the names to watch if they trade back to around picks 28-32?
I think it is the same group, but they might not be comfortable with a guy like Guyton at No. 24, but if they can add a 3rd, they would feel great later. So, I would say any remainders from above and then three more names that work for me.
- Jordan Morgan, Guard, Arizona
- Kingsley Suamataia, Tackle, BYU
- Zach Frazier, Center, West Virginia
2024 Draft Profile: BYU's Kingsley Suamataia
In both cases, I am not saying it is impossible they don’t throw us a curve ball by taking a DT or a LB, but I don’t see a match there and I am pretty committed to OL help and I believe they are, too.
We know I have been wrong before, but this is where my head is at.
Ok, then what do you figure the plan is on Day 2?
Well, of course, so much of the plan on Day 2 is going to be based on variables that the Cowboys have zero control over. Watching 31 picks disappear between your pick at No. 24 and being back on the clock at No. 56 is a rather unpleasant waiting game. But, that is how this whole thing works.
This is a very high “curveball” area where we should widen our net to what Dallas might be looking at here. It does seem the Cowboys media world has agreed as a consensus group that the idea is to use those three picks – four if that trade down can happen – on the best options at the following spots:
- Tackle
- Center
- Running Back
- Linebacker
- Defensive Tackle
- Jaylen Wright, Tennessee – 2nd-3rd Round
- Trey Benson, Florida State – 2nd-3rd Round
- Jonathon Brooks, Texas – 3rd Round
- Blake Corum, Michigan – 3rd Round
- Audric Estime, Notre Dame – 3rd Round
- MarShawn Lloyd, USC – 3rd Round
- Ray Davis, Kentucky – 3rd-4th Round
In fact, I would be willing to bet that they have Brooks from Texas as their highest RB and would probably be willing to pull the trigger on him at No. 56. That seems rich for me as he heals from an ACL, but again, it doesn’t matter what I think. The Cowboys are going to do what they think and since Dr. Dan Cooper did his surgery, they will have some intimate knowledge of his medicals.
Let’s just say if they take him at No. 56, you are not allowed to be surprised – even if he is the first RB off the board.
NFL Draft Profile - Texas' RB Jonathon Brooks
The other thing I will say about this is as a general rule, I think they want their RB to be a bigger guy this time around. Not huge, necessarily, but I would be surprised if they drop below a weight of 210 or 215 this time. That probably only eliminates Bucky Irving and maybe Blake Corum, but Jaylen Wright and Ray Davis may be borderline, too.
The more I try to figure out what the Cowboys are thinking, the more we look at Brooks, Benson, Estime, and Lloyd as the four most likely options.
I would also pound the table for linebacker. Yes, DeMarvion Overshown is back and I am not willing to give up on Damone Clark, yet. But, with Mike Zimmer and Erik Kendricks are in, I suspect tiny Markquese Bell is back to safety. Leighton Vander Esch is retired, so if one of my three attractive linebacker options is there in Round 2, I am totally in:
- Edgerrin Cooper, Texas A&M – 1st-2nd Round
- Junior Colson, Michigan – 2nd Round
- Payton Wilson, NC State – 2nd Round
I think there is a good chance they are all gone, but in my vision, that is where I am looking right now.
I would wait on RB in Round 2, but I bet they will look there first and LB next unless some particular player is hitting them in the face.
If you get those two rounds how you want them, what about pick No. 87?
Ok, the third-round pick is going to be a precious commodity. I want to reiterate; they need to trade back in the 1st round so that this isn’t their only pick between No. 56 and No. 174. You cannot have just one pick over 118 selections without going a bit insane given the numerous holes on your roster.
But, let’s just assume they have one pick at No. 87. What is the plan?
I would first like to direct you back to a piece from last month. I think the Cowboys might look at center like they have a few reasonable internal options to start at a certain point.
What that means is that if they don’t get one of those top three centers: Barton, Powers-Johnson, or Frazier, they might roll with TJ Bass or Brock Hoffman and see what is on the unsigned list these days. Connor Williams is still on the streets, for instance. Wouldn’t that be something?
FILM STUDY: Internal Offensive Line Options
On the other hand, if we get to the 3rd round, we should know the net will be much wider. For instance, this is where an upgrade at slot corner, wide receiver, or edge rusher would be tough to pass on.
Yes, No. 87 is where you would grab a QB if one was there. Two things on that wild idea, you already spent your 4th on a QB so this would hurt and the odds of Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt being there at No. 87 are roughly slim and none.
But, the driver of any business late on Friday night is simply the reality that we have no idea what will be available. In a perfect world, I would love one of my OL guys to fall to me, so I will list the non-1st round OL and you can start praying:
- Cooper Beebe, OL - G, Kansas State
- Blake Fisher, OT, Notre Dame
- Roger Rosengarten, OL - T, Washington
- Patrick Paul, OL - T, Houston
- Dominick Puni, OL - G, Kansas
- Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale
So, in short, No. 87 is a place where you would like to sweep up your RB because you took a more pressing need at No. 56. Because unless you are looking at RB, I think most of the buffet table will be pretty picked over by that time of night.
I hope this all helps sort it out a bit in your head. Please feel free to review any and all profiles you wish as we put the final touches on the Sturm 60 and it will be time to draft.
