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By Bob Sturm Jun 29, 2021
One of the biggest cap values on the 2021 Dallas Cowboys is also one of the most fascinating stories. Yet, for very understandable reasons, there are more than a few fans of this organization who will get angry because this story is being discussed publicly.
That is how polarizing the case of Randy Gregory will always be around here. Some fans are sick and tired about being sick and tired of his entire career. Too much time and energy has been dedicated to a player who has violated that trust too often, they will say. Even when he is on the field, he seems to get people’s blood boiling with an offsides penalty or some other flag.
But, I cannot help to find his career so filled with the highs and lows that he will always be interesting to me and certainly has been the topic of many pieces I have written over the years.
My colleague Jon Machota recently wrote about him during mini-camp week and had some worthwhile discussion points.
“It’s in the past,” he said. “I’ve done a great job the last few years with the team on and off the field, and I’m looking forward to the future, if that’s three years, five years, whatever it is. I’m having fun. I’m doing what I need to do. The coaches love me, the players love me, at least I think they do, and I’m not worried about all the other stuff. I’m doing a good job.”
After being suspended for the first six games last season, Gregory finished with 3.5 sacks and 12 quarterback hits in the final 10 games. He wanted more playing time. With veteran edge rusher Aldon Smith, who started all 16 games in 2020, no longer on the roster, Gregory is expected to get significant time rushing off the right edge.
“He’d better want to play more, because I plan on playing him more,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said. “I think the most important thing for him is he’s been here every day. … He’s doing great, looks great and we’re expecting big things from him.”
I recommend reviewing the entire piece if you missed any part of it, but there is plenty in those few paragraphs as well as another quote about his very odd and unique contract situation:
“Same way I have always gone about it,” Gregory responded. “I should have already had a new contract. I was still on my rookie contract last year. That is kind of crazy to think about, but I understand it’s a contract year. It’s all about earning everything now. I’m going to do that on the field. Barring injury, I think I will be all right. I love it here. I love the owners. I love the staff. I love the players. When that time comes, we will talk about it. But from where I came from I am not thinking about a damn contract right now before the season starts. I still got a lot to do.”
He may not be thinking about it, but I sure am.
Randy is starting what should be his seventh season. He was picked 60th overall — much to the visible dismay of head coach Jason Garrett on that night in 2015 — and we can simply look at those taken around him who remain mainstays in the league to get an idea of how much money has been left on the table by Gregory to this point. We know that these have been pretty serious issues that he has been dealing with, but the NFL drug policies have softened during this time and we have reason to believe that the regulations are in the rearview mirror.
Pick No. 57 – Rams: Rob Havenstein, tackle: Havenstein immediately became a huge part of the Rams offensive line as an 84-game starter and signed a very large extension before the 2018 season when (he was 26 years old) of four years/$32 million which will expire in 2022. He has already made $22.7 million in his career and has two more years remaining that will add an additional $14 million in the next 18 months.
Pick No. 60 – Cowboys: Randy Gregory, defensive end: Gregory has had his rookie contract stuck in neutral because of his service time issues and suspensions over the course of his career. So, his entry deal — which would have been done in 2018 under normal circumstances, was pushed ahead two full years and then tacked on a one-year extension in 2021 for $1.9 million which takes the career earnings to $4.7 million with a chance to get to $6.8 million by the end of this season when he will finally find free agency at the age of 29.
Pick No. 61 – Buccaneers: Ali Marpet, guard: Marpet has been a mainstay for the Buccaneers up front with 85 starts since 2015 and was quickly secured to an early extension (like Havenstein) before the 2018 season began (five years, $54 million) that took him through his 30th birthday. Marpet has already banked more than $27 million and will grab an additional $31 million before his extension expires in 2023 if he keeps up his good work.
Pick No. 63 – Seahawks: Frank Clark, defensive end: If we may leave the gun charges of last week to the side, we would list the 91 games and 49 regular-season sacks Clark has accumulated and the 11 additional playoff sacks to get him to 60. He did not reach an extension in Seattle after his first four years and the franchise tag — his last game there was the playoff game in Dallas that Seattle lost in 2018 — and was signed quickly by the Chiefs to a staggering five-year, $104 million deal after a trade was worked out. He has pocketed $50 million and played in two Super Bowls, but we can ask several questions about how much of the remaining $58 million he will see. Still, despite his personal conduct issues at Michigan and in present day, he has reaped a huge amount of cash through it all.
We only looked at those right around Gregory who have become dependable starters. A few picks later, Seattle also took Tyler Lockett and his impact is as significant as anyone on this list. But there are also several players who are long since out of football.
None of this is meant to do anything but give everyone an idea of what the last several years have cost the team and the player. Gregory has to know that he has left about $25 million on the table as an impact edge rusher — minimum. When he plays, he has a significant effect on things and I will believe that will come into focus again in camp. If he has a year in 2021 that is significant in impact — as in something like his final eight games in 2020 — he will be able to gain an extension that will help him feel better about the road behind him.
For the Cowboys, they have not reaped the benefits of having a Frank Clark-type on an edge opposite DeMarcus Lawrence — the front office’s design in the first place. If Gregory was what they thought he would be, so many of the other machinations over the years would likely have never happened. Taco Charlton, Robert Quinn and Aldon Smith were all basically brought in because Gregory was not in his place doing his thing. So, if you are looking for the answer to “Which party was more hurt by all of this mess?” the answer might be a push.
Both sides have taken a significant hit from the situation, but also both sides still need each other.
From the Dallas standpoint, they have to know that, like Smith last year, if this works there is a real chance that an extension could be one where they don’t experience a ton of competition for his services. There are many front offices that would likely not even consider someone who has been suspended that many times. If Gregory has found a comfort zone, he may want to stay in it.
But, here is where today’s piece might be most valuable: to remind anyone who needs reminding how good Gregory has been — as recently as the last time the Cowboys played football this past season.
Below are the “Top 5” splash play leaders for Dallas and in the far column, note the total snaps played. If you want to see why Gregory is where the Cowboys have wisely put their chips rather than another season of Smith, there you go. Smith had a nice start, but fizzled as you would think someone might after five years away from pro football. He averaged a splash play every 28.3 snaps. But Gregory was able make a play of significance every 12.5 snaps in his far more limited action (since he did not play in a game until Week 7 and played only more than 35 snaps three times). Lawrence averaged a splash once every 20.3 snaps and is probably a really good target number when snaps increase.
Cowboys splash play leaders
| PLAYER | TOTAL SPLASHES | SNAPS |
|---|---|---|
 DeMarcus Lawrence | 31 | 631 |
 Aldon Smith | 27 | 764 |
 Randy Gregory | 20 | 250 |
 Trevon Diggs | 18.5 | 702 |
 Jaylon Smith | 16.5 | 1,025 |
But, as I indicated in December when writing about Gregory, the 2020 developments of his play and maturity and probably most importantly, the NFL progressing along the lines of its substance policies, he has arrived.
As it stands, he is looking like an absolute monster. He had 15 splash plays over his last six games, which is basically Lawrence production playing opposite Lawrence. He had been every bit the player Quinn or Smith have been in the advantageous situations that Lawrence presents them because teams are constantly helping against Tank.
Gregory destroyed many plays and got to the quarterback repeatedly. He was excellent against the run and probably been the team’s best pass-rusher in the second half of the season.
The Cowboys could not afford to pay Yannick Ngakoue (2 years, $26 million), Shaq Barrett (4 years, $68 million), Matthew Judon (4 years, $54 million) or Bud Dupree (5 years, $82 million) to come help this defense for 2021 and beyond. Imagine the impact you would expect from those players who are all roughly his age.
What if I told you Gregory can do much of what they can do and he will count $2 million in 2021?
I know that there is a large part of the fan base that has no patience for anything positive said about Gregory, but I am here to tell you that this was a huge development. And while I am annoyed he has only played in 38 of 96 games in his career, that is the past.
Gregory’s future has shown that the Cowboys have a potential star player at a key position who is entering his age 28 season — one of the most key spots on any defense — and nobody is talking about it because of his baggage.
I think there is every reason to believe that is the past, and while Gregory will never be praised much by the public, that doesn’t mean teams can block him and deal with him for three hours every Sunday. It took a long time to get here, but I believe that you can now believe in the future of Randy Gregory — one which could be very bright.
What might that cost Dallas to keep him beyond 2021 around if he truly becomes his best version of himself?
It would be a great problem to have.
