Sturm on Cowboys FA

[GShock]

Could go in the FA thread, but thought it merited a stand-alone reminder for this year and years to come...

Welcome To The Dallas Cowboys in Free Agency
This is what they do and if anyone is surprised by this, it might be our own fault.


One of the outside perceptions of the Dallas Cowboys, from those who do not actually follow the team, is that the Jones family has endless amounts of money. Jerry and family are here to use those untold riches to push the limits and outspend your favorite team.
Don’t get me wrong. They do have endless amounts of money. And they do pocket more and more in sheer profit every single season owning the most profitable franchise in professional sports.
It’s just that they don’t seem to actually spend it on the team that they own. Not anymore, at least.
Why?
I cannot begin to guess. But, if you examine the amount of cash spending that the Cowboys have engaged in, and the lack of interest they have shown in free agency for at least the last decade, you notice an obvious trend.
You might tell me it’s because of that darned salary cap. That’s what keeps restricting the Cowboys financial advantages from being the New York Yankees or Los Angeles Dodgers of the NFL.
Why can’t they find loopholes and make sure that the product on the field is pushing the limits? Compliance to the league structure, shouldn’t limit them from outwitting others. Deeper pockets, are deeper pockets, and money always finds a way.
Again, I am not here to offer particular substance as to why the franchise does not participate in big spending. But it is worth noting that any “big spender” reputation is misleading.
They profit more than any other franchise and they seem to operate as if they are cash-strapped when it comes to aggressive team building.
The Cowboys meet all of the minimum requirements laid out by the NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement, but so do the Arizona Cardinals. In terms of elective spending, we should know that the Cowboys do not push the limits in things like free agency and even “before market” extensions to their own players, as we have seen countless times over across the league.
So, today, to help explain the lack of activity from the Cowboys in free agency, I would like to offer you an 11-year review of the Cowboys in free agency.
Why 11 years? Because 12 years ago, in 2012, they signed the No. 1 corner on the market and the No. 3 free agent overall when they signed corner Brandon Carr to a five-year, $50 million deal.
It was a bold and aggressive play that at the time was praised because “the Cowboys hardly ever did anything in free agency” back then. Those who said that were right and it did seem to offer some intent to change that.
But, they have not done a single thing of note in the 11 years since in free agency and I am willing to offer proof:
11 years of doing next to nothing in NFL Free Agency

2013

LB Justin Durant signed from Detroit - two years, $2.4 million.
He was a reasonable player on the Cowboys defense for two years and then brought back later in his career for another short stint.

2014

DT Henry Melton signed from Chicago - four years, $27 million
Dallas actually signed him to a 1-year deal with three additional option years. They paid Melton for just the one year (2014) and about $3 millions before they declined his options. It was a very poor signing and he played about 400 snaps.
Also, DE Jeremy Mincey signed from Denver - two years, $3 million.
He actually was a decent foot soldier near the league minimum.

2015

DT Greg Hardy signed from the Carolina - one year, $11.3 million.
There was only one franchise in the NFL that was willing to touch Greg Hardy at this point, and he had been effectively benched by the rest of the league in 2014.
The Cowboys brought him back and to be fair, he had a few games that I can recall where he moved the needle. But it was cancelled out by the poor publicity of it all. Regardless, he got into the sideline battle with Rich Bisaccia and Dez Bryant and that is when Dallas sort of realized it was all a bad idea. 2015 wasn’t a fun year.
Hardy would never play another NFL snap.

2016

DT Cedric Thornton signed from Philadelphia - four years, $17 million.
You may not remember the four years of Thornton. It was only 291 snaps, all in 2016. The Cowboys paid out about $8 million to witness it and then told him to go away during training camp in 2017. He was release, and much like Melton, there is really no question this one was a disaster . You start to notice a trend as they sign someone who is not considered a major signing and they get next to nothing from it.
EDGE Benson Mayowa signed to offer sheet from Oakland - three years, $8.25 million.
The Cowboys entered the restricted free agency game in 2016 and it actually was a nice little piece of business. Mayowa gave them a decent 2016. By 2017, though, they were over it and he dealt with a back injury before being released in March of 2018.

2017

Cowboys signed CB Nolan Carroll from Philadelphia - three years, $10 million.
This one is particularly amazing. He was signed to replace Brandon Carr and Mo Claiborne at corner that year and had a DUI before he got to training camp. Then, amazingly, the Cowboys started him at corner to begin 2017, only for him to play awfully in the first two weeks, suffer a concussion, and was released in October!
They signed a player to a three-year deal and he lasted 82 snaps and never played another down in the NFL.

2018

Cowboys signed WR Allen Hurns from Jacksonville - two years, $12 million.
Hurns was part of that 2018 season when the Cowboys attempted to play without any wide receivers after they released Dez Bryant and before they traded for Amari Cooper. So, they signed Hurns to come in and start due to a 2015 where he had 1,000 yards.
In Dallas, he did not get to 300 yards and suffered a gruesome broken leg in the playoff game against Seattle. They would release him in 2019 after he healed.

2019

WR Randall Cobb from Green Bay - one year, $5 million.
You could argue that this is the biggest win on the entire list as Cobb had one of the best seasons of his playing with Dak Prescott and had the highest yards per reception for more than 800 yards on a Cowboys team that fizzled down the stretch. The team finished 8-8 and Jason Garrett was fired. They also had Robert Quinn that year, but he was acquired via trade. Again, decent business done on the margins, to be fair.

2020

Cowboys get headlines by signing DT Gerald McCoy from Carolina - three years, $18 million.
I do remember being fired up that the Cowboys had signed big McCoy after his long career in Tampa Bay and his one year with the Panthers. It was an amazingly short time in Dallas. He tore his quad in what passed for the training camp, was released the next day in a very tense dismissal that suggested medical anger from the team, and never played a single snap with the franchise. Not one.
Signed EDGE Everson Griffen from Minnesota - one year, $6 million.
Again, on paper, this looked like a decent gamble, but Griffen proved to not be a very good fit. After a few sacks he was traded to Detroit at the deadline after the 2020 season had taken a wrong turn.

2021

Cowboys sign Edge Tarell Basham from the Jets - two years, $5.5 million.
He was brought in to add some pass-rush value to the team and didn’t bring too much at all. He was a spot player in 2021 and then in 2022 was hurt and released. I wish I had more to offer you on his run here, since he was the biggest free agent signing of the year, but I don’t.

2022

Team signs EDGE Dante Fowler from Atlanta - one year, $3 million.
Also signs WR James Washington from Pittsburgh - one year, $1.8 million.
I have no issues with Dante Fowler as a bargain signing where he pitched in for two years. James Washington allegedly played 15 snaps as a Cowboy, but if he really did, I don’t remember them.
2023

Cowboys sign OT Chuma Edoga from the Jets - one year, $1.2 million.
Edoga was here in 2023, I can confirm. I don’t believe they want to retain him, but they did need him and he was what you might expect. They also traded for Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks, but by definition, those are not signings in free agency.

2024

Nada, zilch, none.
As you can see, we probably should have known what to expect from the Cowboys when it comes to free agency.
Maybe it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy at this point. Bad signings have begot bad signings. So maybe in 2024, they’ve simply decided to not give anyone a chance to let us down.

 

[boozeman]

This one from Sturm was a little weak.

 

[p1_]

This one from Sturm was a little weak.

Life outside the Atlantic mothership.

 

[boozeman]

Life outside the Atlantic mothership.

Don’t get me wrong, he had a good premise but really did not nail the landing. That first class under Fat Mike really solidified the stance we have firmly adopted.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I think Sturm is missing the point here.

The point isn't whether we should be surprised by this. We all know they don't spend in free agency.

The point is whether we should be complacent about it this year in particular.

And we shouldn't.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Don’t get me wrong, he had a good premise but really did not nail the landing. That first class under Fat Mike really solidified the stance we have firmly adopted.

I firmly believe this "draft and develop" program that Mike had to coach under in publicly-owned Green Bay was a big key in Stephen wanting to hire him.

 

[Cujo]

My neighbor across the street is related to James Washington. He was over there a couple of weeks ago.

 

[boozeman]

My neighbor across the street is related to James Washington. He was over there a couple of weeks ago.

Well…bless his heart.

 

[Cujo]

Well…bless his heart.

Yeah, ok.

 

[dpf1123]

There is a follow up from Sturm today to the original post. I will add below this.

 

[dpf1123]

Responding to your Responses: Free Agency
The Dallas Cowboys philosophical approach has generated plenty of chatter.

BOB STURM
MAR 15, 2024


A few days back, I wrote a piece about free agency and how the Dallas Cowboys kind of do the exact same each year. At least dating back to 2012 when they last participated in high-end free agency with Brandon Carr in 2012.

(Here is that whole piece.)
Since then, the best way to summarize the Cowboys approach to free agency would be:

• Low-end bargain basement signings of third-tier options
• Plugging holes with a pro so they can draft without huge pressing needs.
• Players that last about a season, so they do it again with someone else next spring.

That piece generated a number of responses that I want to react to. But rather than making the comments section an even a more confusing place, I thought it would be best to give it a platform in a post.

So, here are some general responses to some frequently-offered reactions I hear from Cowboys fans. I figured we should all have them in a somewhat central that I can reference when we do this again next year:

Response: Participating in the high-end of free agency never works
I am willing to concede that it is not a place to live.
I am willing to make you a list of top free agent signings that are comically disastrous for the teams that gave Albert Haynesworth (Washington, seven years, $100 million in 2009), Nnamdi Asomugha (Philadelphia, five years, $60 million in 2011), and even Kenny Golladay (New York Giants, four years, $72 million in 2021) that type of money.

I find it pretty interesting that the three NFC East teams that are always active and aggressive in free agency are being lauded for being active and aggressive in free agency in 2024.

If history is our guide, the Cowboys division mates would, in theory, swear off free agency. But the Eagles and Commanders are probably right there at the top of the NFL as historical contenders for the most active franchise in NFL history in this aisle. And also burned the most with very bad ideas. Heck, I didn’t even mention the Eagles big contract on DeMarco Murray (five years, $40 million in 2015), Washington on Dana Stubblefield (six years, $36 million in 1997), and the Giants with Nate Solder (four years, $62 million in 2019).

Honestly, the best way not to make a massive mistake in free agency is to not participate in any area of free agency where massive mistakes can be made.

If you are never the team that signs the top free agent, you cannot be laughed at. Take the Texas Rangers, who signed Jacob DeGrom to a massive contract (five years, $185 million) and within a month of pitching, his arm fell off and he needed Tommy John.

Obviously, that was a tremendous risk and unlikely to work, right! Why did they act so foolishly? How you can you win big if you are going to be so foolish?

Well, we should ask the Rangers and the Eagles how their parades went, even with a few bad signings along the way.

If you want to tell anyone that free agency never works, I wish to offer you an easy five rebuttals:

1. Reggie White to the Packers - Completely transformed the Packers from a the worst era in franchise history into a perennial contender nearly ever since and also made Green Bay a place guys would consider playing in again.
2. Drew Brees to the Saints - Pretty much the same thing for the New Orleans Saints franchise.
3. Peyton Manning to the Broncos - See Super Bowl 50
4. Tom Brady to the Buccaneers - See Super Bowl 55
5. Deion Sanders to the Cowboys - There was a time where Jerry Jones was compared to George Steinbrenner with his unlimited resources and his unquenchable thirst to dominate the sport. This was that time.

I feel there are pictures of every player on that list holding a Lombardi Trophy in their new uniform.

But, Bob, those are three QBs and two guys who signed about 30 years ago! Give us some more relevant free agent signings.

Ok, let me try some from recent history:

1. Shaq Barrett from Denver to Tampa Bay in 2019 - Went from being a backup in Denver to a guy with almost 40 sacks in three seasons. He was the biggest pass rush threat on the Buccaneers as they were one of the best teams in the NFL during that time. Oh, and Tom Brady.
2. DeMario Davis from the NY Jets to the Saints in 2018 - Fantastic linebacker signing by the Saints that helped their defense push up several levels due to his play and contribution.
3. Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo to New England in 2017 - Instantly allowed the Patriots to have the best corner in football and would be a first-team All Pro and Defensive Player of the Year while winning a Super Bowl.
4. Julius Peppers from Carolina to Chicago in 2010 - signed a huge deal (six years, $91 million) but the Bears would not complain a bit as he was dominant and they were quickly in the NFC Championship Game at home.
5. Charles Woodson from Oakland to Green Bay in 2006 - signed a seven-year, $53 million deal and would play all seven years there, win a Super Bowl and a NFL Defensive Player of the Year award there, too.

All I am saying is I refute the premise that you cannot hit it big at the top of free agency, because you can. It’s like drafting a QB No. 1 overall. It may fail badly and may not be the guarantee that we all want, but you cannot convince me it isn’t a good place to start.

1. The Cowboys cannot participate in free agency because they have no cap room.

I do not want to spend time on this because I think most people know that this is categorically false. The Cowboys technically do not have much cap room right now, but they have the ability to create a ton by turning in a few forms to the league office to move money around.
You have been told they have $2.2 million in cap space, right? So, could they find $10 million?

Yes.

How about $20 million? Could they create $20 million before lunch?

Yes.

$40 million?

Yes.
$50 million?
Yes, again.
C’mon, $60 million?
Yes.
I think the number we all agree on is about $65 million could be created which is enough to sign quite a few players if they wished.
Sure, Bob, but I don’t want to extend Dak Prescott to do that.
Good! Because you don’t have to. You can create about $65 million without extending Prescott at all.
How? I will leave this link to my colleague’s work - Cowboys can create $65 million cap space without extending Dak Prescott, but KD Drummond did all of this math and definitely understands the cap on a level you can trust.
Why do we play this game and tell the public that times are tough and the cap is killing us?
I don’t know, human instincts? It seems people in power are always doing this sort of thing. It’s like how the budget always feels tighter when my kids ask for me to pay for the trip they want to take with the college buddies. Is it true or am I exaggerating?
I think people with plenty of money have been telling other people they don’t have much for a long time.
I am not sitting here telling you that creating $65 million and pushing money back to other years is a great strategy. I am just telling you it is an actual strategy that other teams choose to do frequently. Dallas does not seem inclined to do it this way in free agency.
Let’s wrap this piece up with responding to many of your thoughts from the comments section of Wednesday’s piece:

From Wess - I'd love to get your thoughts on the actual correlation between top-tier UFA signings and post-season success. Also - it's amusing to me how everyone is googly eyed over the Eagles (seemingly every season). If I'm not mistaken, they signed an aging, often injured running back to $13+ million AAV. In what world is that a smart move?

OK, well, to correlate the signing of a free agent to post-season success is a bit mindless. I realize we all know this but how many times do we watch a game on a Sunday and say, gee, our left guard won us that game. Never? How about our safety or the linebacker?
This is a team sport where the contributions are impossible to individualize in almost every case.

It is a collective of talent and cohesion that makes it difficult to say that so-and-so gave us 20% of this win and therefore 20% of this division title. This idea that you have to correlate acquiring one of your best five players to whether or not you were able to play in a conference championship game is tough to nail down.

I realize I made you a few lists above, but how do you measure how much Tom Brady did vs. how much Shaq Barrett did for that Tampa title? What about Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, and Ndamukong Suh? It just doesn’t really work that day. But, I will say the Bucs were largely built on other team’s players and they won the Super Bowl almost overnight.
Would Cowboys fans accept a similar story if it was in their uniform?

From Erich Robinson Bob, hey! Great content as usual. I was wondering if the Cowboys have done anything to lower their salary cap yet (don't recall seeing any news on that even since signing Kendrick). Also, I was wondering why Tyron hasn't signed anywhere yet. Does that mean there's a chance he remains a Cowboy? Thanks!

The cap adjustments are so easy to do that teams often don’t turn in the paper work until a player is signed. Watch, they will definitely announce something in June when they are getting their rookie class signed. Right now, the cap is only for your top 51 earners. Well, that number will go to 53 and that costs more than $2.2 million right there.

Then you need to pay a practice squad, a rookie class, and any injured players being replaced has to be accounted for. In other words, Dallas will need to raise over $10 million in space before they play football this fall to just cover annual expenses and they know it. So, the most likely adjustments will be those moves we referenced above and that will happen on a slow-news day and go largely unnoticed because it is procedural.

What about the Tyron Market?

You can argue this is going exactly as the Cowboys hoped. Tyron probably had a number he wanted and Dallas said they cannot do that.
So, they challenged him to go find that offer in reality and there are many similar cases right now (maybe not legendary players, but teams allowing a player to go find his worth) and often there is a number for a compromise back home. I hope they find that number quickly.

Daniel M What I don’t understand is - why keep McCarthy for another year if you’re going to let several starters walk in free agency and not replace them? There’s no way they’re counting on the draft to plug all these holes, right? Seems like McCarthy is setup to fail now with a lame duck season and depleted roster from last year and a presumable directive to go deep into the playoffs or be fired.

I agree it is certainly unlikely you can find solutions for these holes, but I also would push back on their losses right now being insurmountable. They have allowed their RB and their Center to walk and did not regard either as a big deal. They might allow their left tackle to walk, but have been planning on replacing him for some time. Otherwise, we are talking about depth players that they aren’t worried about.

In total, they aren’t too deep and there is a pathway to contending next year based on how good this roster has been for three straight 12-win seasons (which I refuse to discount as easy or unimportant). They also expect rookies and sophomores to take major steps forward to help, because they always do.

From Blake I'm sick of the trope that 'There's no owner in the league that wants to win more than Jerry's. It's absolutely false. We do spend to the cap floor at least, but in cash spending every year we are at the bottom. I don't understand what else you would do with literally billions of dollars? It makes no sense to me but then I'm not a billionaire.

This comment caused some arguments in the comments and I wanted to weigh in on a few things here that I think are worth talking about.
I think Jerry wants to win. But, I think his win is defined as a business win which is measured in profits and valuations.

I have heard him reference these things enough times to wonder about the following hypothetical:

Jerry Jones has two choices. He may A) retain the top spot on the Forbes list and on the balance sheets as the most profitable NFL Franchise (by a mile) and merely be a relevant NFL participant each year in the title race. Or B) gets to win the Super Bowl in 2024, but magically become the 20th most valuable NFL Franchise, the 20th most profitable franchise, and the 20th most relevant franchise moving forward.

Which would he choose?

That is how you determine how badly someone wants to win. And anyone that thinks he would choose B is probably fooling themself. He has never shown any indication that this is a priority. What he has shown is that if Mike Tyson and Kid Rock would like to use his stadium for a nice fee….

Now, to the cash spending discussion. The NFLPA tracks the actual money spent inside a 12-month period of time. Here are their findings for 2021:

And here is 2022:

And finally, 2023:

I could not help but notice that over a three year period, the Cowboys appear to be one of the least-spending franchises in the entire league. I have about $535 million spent by the Cowboys on players where a team like Philadelphia is at $655 million and the 49ers are at $664 million. Surely, that suggests that Dallas has some explaining to do on some level?

Why are they not being more aggressive in their spending? They will say to save it for when they need it, but 36 months is a lifetime in this league. Are they about to do Prescott, Parsons, and Lamb and fix that whole structure?

From David Hodges Is there any chance Chicago would trade their 2 1st rounders (1,9) for Dak and Dallas gets a complete reset?

No. In fact, I think you could argue that even Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence would not get the Bears to do a deal that expensive. Having a QB of high levels of talent on a rookie contract is an amazing advantage that no team in their right mind would consider in a year with elite prospects at the position. We have never seen it for a reason and especially for a QB who is 30 years old.
Oh, and Dak has a no-trade clause.

From Sandy With the possible exception of Carr, Thornton and Melton (I'm being generous) none of these guys listed were considered true needle movers. The Eagles sign big time guys every single year. It's worked out for them. It's not just bad luck that this team has not made it to a conference championship game since 1995. They're lazy, arrogant and stubborn.

I agree that judging the Cowboys players on that list as an example of free agency not working is wrong. Sandy has correctly identified that none of the players the Cowboys signed after Brandon Carr were amongst the best free agents of their class. In fact, they might not have signed a single Top-50 Free agent since Carr.

Not one.

So, I don’t want anyone to think that the list from Wednesday proves that free agency doesn’t work. It is like going to a junkyard to grab the best car and when you find out they are all junk, you swear off cars forever. No! But, you have to shop where the cars actually function!

The Eagles have made it part of their recipe to aggressively get players who are young and talented to join them. They have been to multiple Super Bowls in the last decade, too. I think they have a better front office than Dallas and have proved it on any rolling 10-year evaluation. I cannot stand the Eagles but I am not sure how anyone could come to any other conclusion.

Brooks W. Klein I for one agree with how the Cowboys approach FA. Once Garrett was gone they’ve had (3) consecutive 12-5 seasons. What frustrates me is if the draft is going to be your primary avenue to build and replace talent; then they should be looking for ways to accumulate more draft picks! See Bill Belichick and New England. Belichick would always identify a player still in his prime and trade him for draft capital.

I think Brooks raises a fantastic point. Part of the draft recipe is flipping your first-contract guys before they need a contract. Belichick did that quite well with several players - Chandler Jones is one but there are many – where he decided we aren’t going to pay this guy, so let’s flip him for a second-round pick now.

I think Dallas should consider that forward thinking with guys they are “not sure” about right now. Would you extend Osa Odighizuwa? Would you extend both Micah Parsons and Cee Dee Lamb or would you sign one and try to flip the other for a first and a second-round pick?

It makes you think!
Last thing - The Cowboys signed Eric Kendricks on Wednesday Night and I put a reel of his work together. I think this is a very nice piece of business, but I haven’t seen any numbers, so I want to wait a bit on a full evaluation.
That said, I pulled his splash plays from the last few weeks of 2023 and felt very good about how he still looks:

I think he can really help here and I wrote this about him before his Monday Night game last year in Week 9:

I will be interested in what else they can add here and what other events the front office can bring to the stadium featuring soccer, monster trucks, and Jake Paul.

Anyway, I better get back to the draft. Have a great weekend.

 

[Genghis Khan]

My neighbor across the street is related to James Washington. He was over there a couple of weeks ago.

The Real James Washington or Fake James Washington?

 

[Cujo]

The Real James Washington or Fake James Washington?

The fake one.