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DCC 4Life
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Morning After – Thursday Goes Quite Well
Now, they have the proper ammunition to make Friday's quest to find three key pieces.
BOB STURM
APR 26, 2024
Let’s acknowledge that much of our real-time draft analysis requires many assumptions moving forward. To call drafting, and even more so drafting analysis, an inexact science is to understand that we are discussing young men who can easily improve or derail their futures at any time. Money, fame, or just a momentary lapse in reason can cause a guy to take a wrong turn in life. Injuries also lurk, which could sabotage progress. Loss of drive comes in many forms, and an ascending player does not always continue to ascend.
Conversely, as I have learned, what we see on tape does not compel a guy to stay at that level. Instruction and a willingness to learn and improve can allow a prospect to transform along his path. Some guys make massive leaps in their development over time, especially during their formative years. These uncertainties in sports make draft analysis a challenging and sometimes futile exercise for both teams and media analysts alike.
And yet, many of us cannot get enough.
Because it is on the backs of these prospects that franchises move up and down in the standings against rivals and competitors. If a team hits a few home runs in April, narratives about the state of the franchise can quickly reverse. The thing about the draft is that—like a lottery ticket at the gas station—once in a while, the next pick changes everything.
With that preface written, let’s consider the current state of the Dallas Cowboys draft.
They have completed Day One and in doing so they have changed Day Two. For a team that lacked currency in this draft, they have increased their stack and their depth chart.
Let’s visit briefly this morning as we can dive into deeper discussions when this weekend is over, but here is where things currently seem to sit:
1) Tyler Smith is a better player at left guard than he is left tackle and we want our players stationed where they can be the very best version of themselves if we can accommodate that goal while we remain true to the best interest of the organization.
2) If Tyler Smith plays left guard, we allow him to flank the new left tackle with some superior play at the position to his immediate right.
If we put Tyler Smith at left tackle, then the Cowboys would have newcomers and potentially rookie newcomers at both left guard and center, so they would be shoulder to shoulder. This is hanging a raw steak around the neck of those rookies to opposing defensive coordinators as the best place to attack the Cowboys. This counter to that concept smooths the weak spots considerably.
There may still be two rookie starters on the line, but with Tyler Smith in the middle, he can repel many devious enemy plans by his mere presence as he grows in confidence here in year three.
Those numbers denote the 3rd and 4th rounds and where you want to be to try to get a 4th bite of the apple when you only have three picks in the first 173.
I promise, in even my most friendly projections, I did not imagine they would be able to get No. 9 in Round 3 as part of the process. You might recall I proposed a Buffalo trade for an additional 4th (128) and 5th (144) and a Kansas City trade for their 3rd (95 and 159) back last week in a piece.
This clearly is much better and a sign that Detroit was fine overpaying to move up.
This probably verifies the Cowboys story about having four teams on the phone while they were on the clock and they were able to work each against the other.
It was also handy that Detroit didn’t have two third-round picks. They only had Minnesota’s 3rd as part of the TJ Hockenson trade but sent their own 3rd to Tampa Bay to secure Carlton Davis this spring.
I promise if they had both 3rds, the Lions would have wanted to send you No. 92 which still would have been good. But desperation (or necessity) is the mother of invention, I suppose, and Dallas was opportunistic when Detroit saw corner Terrion Arnold slide down the board.
In short (as if anything is short at #SturmStack), I cannot believe they got pick No. 73 out of all of this and they probably couldn’t believe it, either.
If I may direct you to yesterday’s piece where you can see every snap of your new left tackle against the Texas Longhorns from October, I would also quote my summary from that:
And yes, those two are about to spend some time getting Tyler ready for camp:
No. 73rd is crazy good.
They sent out 740 points on the draft chart and received 845 points back from the Lions. The Lions drastically overpaid. To them, no problem. They got their guy.
But they also were kind enough to do Dallas a big-time solid. That is the equivalent of them just being handed a late 3rd round pick for nothing (105 point profit). And when we talked about “they had work to do” to figure out how to save the offseason in the draft, this is the type of free money they had to find on the ground.
I know I spend a lot of time driving myself crazy with Jerry doing silly things, but I have to hand it to the organization. They might have actually saved the offseason on this trade back.
Again, let me be clear: they still have to nail the picks. But, they have actually driven down the field and now just need to make the field goal. The heavy lifting part is over and now, can they convert?
Impressive work on the phones last night and the draft gods were smiling (for some reason).
Today: Picks 56, 73, and 87.
So, the Cowboys will pick 24th, 41st, and 55th today. They get three of the next 55 players on the board. We can live with this for sure.
They will be looking at:
Day 2 we still have 42 names left and by Day 3 there will be almost nobody on this list. But here we are right now:
I love where they are and I definitely think you can get out of Day 2 with all three of your objectives.
Allow me to explain the top three names a bit:
Either our center or LB makes it to No. 56. If Zach Frazier, Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson, or Cooper Beebe and possibly Dominick Puni are around, I am completely in. Frazier, Beebe or Puni would all be ideal center candidates.
I must concede that going back a few weeks I figured Jerry would grab Brooks at No. 56 and there is nothing I can do to stop him.
At least they added a high 3rd so that either they will wait or they probably can still get a decent center there.
And then, yes, RB. Trey Benson is probably too good to last. But, Brooks, Marshawn Lloyd, Jaylen Wright, or Audric Estime would be my short stack there.
I better get going, but will be checking back as big things happen. Today could not be more important if it tried.
Day 2 is where this team needs to get several base hits.
Now, they have the proper ammunition to make Friday's quest to find three key pieces.
BOB STURM
APR 26, 2024
Let’s acknowledge that much of our real-time draft analysis requires many assumptions moving forward. To call drafting, and even more so drafting analysis, an inexact science is to understand that we are discussing young men who can easily improve or derail their futures at any time. Money, fame, or just a momentary lapse in reason can cause a guy to take a wrong turn in life. Injuries also lurk, which could sabotage progress. Loss of drive comes in many forms, and an ascending player does not always continue to ascend.
Conversely, as I have learned, what we see on tape does not compel a guy to stay at that level. Instruction and a willingness to learn and improve can allow a prospect to transform along his path. Some guys make massive leaps in their development over time, especially during their formative years. These uncertainties in sports make draft analysis a challenging and sometimes futile exercise for both teams and media analysts alike.
And yet, many of us cannot get enough.
Because it is on the backs of these prospects that franchises move up and down in the standings against rivals and competitors. If a team hits a few home runs in April, narratives about the state of the franchise can quickly reverse. The thing about the draft is that—like a lottery ticket at the gas station—once in a while, the next pick changes everything.
With that preface written, let’s consider the current state of the Dallas Cowboys draft.
They have completed Day One and in doing so they have changed Day Two. For a team that lacked currency in this draft, they have increased their stack and their depth chart.
Let’s visit briefly this morning as we can dive into deeper discussions when this weekend is over, but here is where things currently seem to sit:
- They have secured one of the important OL pieces they needed to secure.
1) Tyler Smith is a better player at left guard than he is left tackle and we want our players stationed where they can be the very best version of themselves if we can accommodate that goal while we remain true to the best interest of the organization.
2) If Tyler Smith plays left guard, we allow him to flank the new left tackle with some superior play at the position to his immediate right.
If we put Tyler Smith at left tackle, then the Cowboys would have newcomers and potentially rookie newcomers at both left guard and center, so they would be shoulder to shoulder. This is hanging a raw steak around the neck of those rookies to opposing defensive coordinators as the best place to attack the Cowboys. This counter to that concept smooths the weak spots considerably.
There may still be two rookie starters on the line, but with Tyler Smith in the middle, he can repel many devious enemy plans by his mere presence as he grows in confidence here in year three.
- They have also secured a chance to fill another hole at pick No. 73 after the trade.
Those numbers denote the 3rd and 4th rounds and where you want to be to try to get a 4th bite of the apple when you only have three picks in the first 173.
I promise, in even my most friendly projections, I did not imagine they would be able to get No. 9 in Round 3 as part of the process. You might recall I proposed a Buffalo trade for an additional 4th (128) and 5th (144) and a Kansas City trade for their 3rd (95 and 159) back last week in a piece.
This clearly is much better and a sign that Detroit was fine overpaying to move up.
This probably verifies the Cowboys story about having four teams on the phone while they were on the clock and they were able to work each against the other.
It was also handy that Detroit didn’t have two third-round picks. They only had Minnesota’s 3rd as part of the TJ Hockenson trade but sent their own 3rd to Tampa Bay to secure Carlton Davis this spring.
I promise if they had both 3rds, the Lions would have wanted to send you No. 92 which still would have been good. But desperation (or necessity) is the mother of invention, I suppose, and Dallas was opportunistic when Detroit saw corner Terrion Arnold slide down the board.
In short (as if anything is short at #SturmStack), I cannot believe they got pick No. 73 out of all of this and they probably couldn’t believe it, either.
If I may direct you to yesterday’s piece where you can see every snap of your new left tackle against the Texas Longhorns from October, I would also quote my summary from that:
Small bonus here: Duke Manyweather gave us a quick scouting report on him for our draft coverage and I thought you might enjoy it.
And yes, those two are about to spend some time getting Tyler ready for camp:
No. 73rd is crazy good.
They sent out 740 points on the draft chart and received 845 points back from the Lions. The Lions drastically overpaid. To them, no problem. They got their guy.
But they also were kind enough to do Dallas a big-time solid. That is the equivalent of them just being handed a late 3rd round pick for nothing (105 point profit). And when we talked about “they had work to do” to figure out how to save the offseason in the draft, this is the type of free money they had to find on the ground.
I know I spend a lot of time driving myself crazy with Jerry doing silly things, but I have to hand it to the organization. They might have actually saved the offseason on this trade back.
Again, let me be clear: they still have to nail the picks. But, they have actually driven down the field and now just need to make the field goal. The heavy lifting part is over and now, can they convert?
Impressive work on the phones last night and the draft gods were smiling (for some reason).
Today: Picks 56, 73, and 87.
So, the Cowboys will pick 24th, 41st, and 55th today. They get three of the next 55 players on the board. We can live with this for sure.
They will be looking at:
- Running Back (and yes, they have told the world they are taking Johnathon Brooks if they get the chance because Jerry is still very much Jerry. I love people saying this is all a masterclass bluff. I assure you that it is not a bluff at all.
They LOVE Brooks and plan on taking him and he cannot help himself in a press conference and there are about a hundred examples of it. Now we see if his big mouth will motivate someone to sneak in front of them for a guy coming off an ACL. You cannot write these scripts if it was an HBO comedy). - Center
- Best Player Available that helps your team right here and now. We think LB, WR, or CB is most likely with LB probably being the very most likely. This might be “Mike Zimmer, pick your favorite guy on the board to help the defense” or it might be a big war-room free spin at the BPA. This might actually be the first pick of the three and I think center might be the last one.
Day 2 we still have 42 names left and by Day 3 there will be almost nobody on this list. But here we are right now:
I love where they are and I definitely think you can get out of Day 2 with all three of your objectives.
Allow me to explain the top three names a bit:
- Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton, DL, Illinois - He is my best player left. I must confess when I ranked him I did not know he is still recovering from the Jones fracture situation. That can really be a medical red flag for teams on draft day. I am a fan for sure, but I think that explains why he is still out there.
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon - there is at least rumors of a hip, but I also think this is not exactly a slide yet. He is not for everyone, but I bet he doesn’t last ten picks today.
- Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa - Coming off a broken leg, but we expect he isn’t here long today, either.
Either our center or LB makes it to No. 56. If Zach Frazier, Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson, or Cooper Beebe and possibly Dominick Puni are around, I am completely in. Frazier, Beebe or Puni would all be ideal center candidates.
I must concede that going back a few weeks I figured Jerry would grab Brooks at No. 56 and there is nothing I can do to stop him.
At least they added a high 3rd so that either they will wait or they probably can still get a decent center there.
And then, yes, RB. Trey Benson is probably too good to last. But, Brooks, Marshawn Lloyd, Jaylen Wright, or Audric Estime would be my short stack there.
I better get going, but will be checking back as big things happen. Today could not be more important if it tried.
Day 2 is where this team needs to get several base hits.
