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By Bob Sturm
Jan 12, 2023
Dan Quinn has a few things on his plate.
Hopefully, his coaching future can wait because the Cowboys defense will determine plenty in the next week or so. If this defense can do what it has done all year, odds are decent that there is more football ahead. But, if it looks the part of an average defense in Florida on Monday, we will have to turn our attention to another offseason of change and frustration.
Let’s start with the thing that has been on my mind plenty as we look at this side of the ball.
Dallas is a top-10 team in the league at not allowing vertical passes down the sideline in 2022. It’s true! They have only allowed 19 big passes like that in 17 games and that puts them at the bottom of the top 10. That’s the good news. The bad news: Since Thanksgiving, they have conceded 13 of those 19.
So, yes, 10th for 2022, but 27th in the past seven games.
I went through them all and found that it is a pretty interesting situation. The evidence is here for you in the familiar banana stand, but the biggest takeaway was how many were happening in such a short amount of time and how many were down the deep right sideline. They appear to be hunting whoever is opposite Trevon Diggs. And by “they” I mean any NFL team with a film room.
It is on tape and it is repeated week after week since late November. Daniel Jones and then Matt Ryan. Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. Gardner Minshew, Josh Dobbs and Sam Howell. These are not the best of the best. These are every single quarterback the Cowboys have faced.
In talking with many of you about this team, it is clear that we have turned Anthony Brown into Deion Sanders a bit. The truth is that Brown got this party started by conceding to the Giants and Colts to get this train rolling down the track. Much like Terence Steele, when any Cowboy gets hurt, we then find a way to prop up his abilities in his absence to an unreasonable level to justify what has happened since. It is really overboard to argue that Brown was anything better than his normal level of “decent”, but only two corners have above-average coverage grades this season and they are easy to identify. Diggs is probably having his best year and DaRon Bland has been remarkable for a rookie thrown in at midseason.
Everyone else has been an adventure, including Brown. What makes us miss him is that most of his work is solid. He has a little Brandon Carr in his game in that he grades well 95 percent of the time, but we tend to focus on the other 5 percent. He was replaced by Kelvin Joseph and that didn’t go well (or long). From there, it has been Nahshon Wright, Trayvon Mullen and now we wonder if Xavier Rhodes is going to waltz in and get a turn opposite Diggs.
Rhodes, 32, is an interesting player in that he was excellent in Minnesota for many years. He went to the Pro Bowl year after year (2016, 2017, 2019) and also was a first-team All-Pro in 2017. He lost his swagger near the end and had a big contract so he spent a few years in Indianapolis for Frank Reich and was really solid in 2020 but mostly banged up in 2021. This year, he had a limited market — like so many over-30 veterans — and finally joined the Bills in November for a few games, but the return of Tre’Davious White rendered him less of a priority and they released him Jan. 4.
https://theathletic.com/4080532/2023/01/11/cowboys-wild-card-playoffs-offense/
The Cowboy snapped him up. We can only wonder if T.Y. Hilton was asked an opinion as they both were Colts and Miami guys born within a year of each other. We do know this about Rhodes: He has played a lot of football and played it well. He also was known for his wheels and ball skills for many years. He has played mostly as a zone corner and right now he is worth a look. Would the Cowboys dare to put him right in knowing that Brady and Evans will go right at him to see where he is at physically?
At the moment, it has to be a strong consideration. How much? Who can say? But, we have seen the corners they have “in front of him” and that ability to try a guy with a proven track record should not be considered a crazy plan, given the alternatives.
Remember, two weeks ago, Brady hit Evans over and over down the right sideline (banana stand) against Carolina in an aerial show that proved they still have that performance available on occasion.
The Cowboys have to consider the danger of Brady — but I doubt anyone would let them forget who he is and what wing of Canton is all his. He has credentials that go on for days. Sleeping on him is impossible.
That said, it is best we don’t make him or his offense into something they are not. I have listed for you a number of important metrics from our friends at TruMedia on how Quinn’s boys and the Bucs match up with league ranks on both sides. I cannot emphasize this enough: The Cowboys have to assume that Tampa Bay’s defense will be a problem in a loud stadium. It is up to the defense to pull its weight and maybe some of the offense’s weight for the team to advance.
If there is something for you to feel good about, it has to be this matchup in particular. Dallas has a defense that matches up tremendously well with Tampa Bay. The Cowboys have lots of green where the Bucs have lots of red. This is how mismatches look on paper. We don’t play the game on paper, but these are all good signs.
You can see, Tampa Bay seldom has success running the ball and its offense — despite Brady to Evans three times in Week 17 — has very few explosive plays. Their 1.58 points per drive is absolutely brutal and should tell you what they are usually about. Assuming you get 10 to 12 drives a game, that puts the Bucs at their normal 16 to 20 points per game.
This Cowboys defense has to do what it is capable of doing — make plays and make stops. Unlike previous Buccaneers teams, this offense has generally been compliant. They have familiar names, but at some point, we must be aware that they aren’t what they once were. They are now capable, but nowhere close to consistent.
The Cowboys should respect them, but feel confident in what they have done for four consecutive months as a defense.
Leighton Vander Esch (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
One more thing that might help on Monday is the return of at least three starters. Tyler Biadasz is said to be ready to rejoin the offense, and Johnathan Hankins and Leighton Vander Esch will be back for the defense. That is significant and should assist in the hopes of having more troops to deploy more split-field safety looks behind the run defense. Vander Esch has demonstrated his value this year as a steady hand at the helm and has regained his career path. I would like to see his impact Monday be a positive one and I am sure it will be, but I would also like him back. The alternatives at linebacker have been more athletic, but there is something to be said about being a vocal player who helps coordinate the defense from the field as well as a guy who makes physical plays on the ball.
Hankins provides 350 pounds of beef in the middle. We haven’t seen a ton of him, but he wasn’t brought here for the regular season. He was brought here for playoff battles on slow and muddy fields to clog up running lanes and to allow the pass rushers to feel comfortable focusing on that. Those are two important additions. Rhodes might make it three and although I haven’t written about this at length, I think it is worth noting how the Cowboys have added quite a few short-term, stop-gap veterans this year. This organization has done plenty of home-growing of their players recently and has resisted outside assistance. But, if they go anywhere this postseason, perhaps we will look at five guys they have added since August who may play significant roles down the stretch. None were big expenditures, but if they get you one or two playoff contributions to wins, they validate the entire operation:
Johnathan Hankins, T.Y. Hilton, Anthony Barr, Jason Peters and Xavier Rhodes. They may all be Pro-Bowlers from five years ago, but you don’t need them for the heavy lifting. You just need them to give you a few games here and there. We shall see how many contribute, but I like the front office’s willingness to not insist on living or dying with inexperienced draftees unless you believe in them.
The final regular-season splash play totals are in and I assume I will get some pushback here. Let me just say, these are not subjective stats. They are objective and the computer spits them out as it sees fit.
I am setting you up because DeMarcus Lawrence has done it again. After trailing Micah Parsons the whole season, he beat him at the finish line with a performance in Washington.
2022 final leaderboard: Cowboys splash plays
| PLAYER | SNAPS | TOTAL SPLASH PLAYS |
|---|---|---|
 DeMarcus Lawrence | 671 | 49 |
 Micah Parsons | 880 | 48 |
 Donovan Wilson | 919 | 31 |
 Dorance Armstrong | 514 | 25 |
 Osa Odighizuwa | 588 | 25 |
 Jayron Kearse | 782 | 25 |
 Trevon Diggs | 1070 | 24 |
 Sam Williams | 265 | 22 |
 Leighton Vander Esch | 710 | 22 |
 Dante Fowler | 329 | 19 |
 Anthony Barr | 588 | 19 |
 DaRon Bland | 573 | 16 |
 Malik Hooker | 831 | 14 |
 Anthony Brown | 695 | 13 |
 Carlos Watkins | 270 | 11 |
 Nahshon Wright | 126 | 9 |
 Neville Gallimore | 384 | 9 |
This is Tank’s sixth title in his nine seasons in Dallas (2015, 2017-20, 2022). He is seldom appreciated for what he does because of our obsession with sack totals, but he is quickly making a case as one of the best Cowboys’ defensive players in decades.
On the other hand, Parsons finished just behind him and will feel like he slowed down late in the season. He also will want to take out a lot of things on Tampa Bay on Monday night because he was also left off the player-voted All-Pro team this year. The players voted Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa ahead of him and I would not disagree with that, but Parsons is this team’s best player. You know what they say: Your best players have to be your best players in the biggest games.
This is a big game, Micah. Show the football world what time it is.
