Sturm: DQ Report, Wildcard - Beaten same way again

dpf1123

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DQ Report, Wildcard - Beaten same way again
Dallas and DQ is unable to match the size and strength of bigger personnel groupings.

BOB STURM
JAN 17, 2024


As we wrap up the defensive season today, questions arise about the thought process behind the Dallas Cowboys' strategies. Specifically, Dan Quinn is under scrutiny, but it's also pertinent to inquire about the perspectives of Mike McCarthy, Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, and Will McClay, along with the entire defensive staff. The fundamental and glaring question is:

How did you find yourselves so unprepared for what was seemingly destined to be your downfall?

If we adhere to the football wisdom that "styles make fights," it's perplexing that the Cowboys' defensive structure was tailored to counter one offensive style but proved inadequate against the more prevalent one. The team appeared ill-equipped to handle what should be considered basic, and the most damning aspect is that it occurred repeatedly throughout the season.

Allow me to elaborate.

In the modern game, organizing your 11 defenders to thwart various threats begins with selecting the types of players to field—step one. Subsequently, the focus shifts to where to position them, their intended roles, and the disposition with which they play. While often overlooked, the composition of the team, from the heaviest 330-pound nose tackle to the lightest 180-pound slot corner, allows for an extreme lean in either direction. A defensive coach might opt for eleven slot corners, creating the smallest defense ever, or eleven nose tackles for the largest one.

The NFL has undergone significant changes from the era when 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, and 2 WR) was considered "regular" in the 1980s and 1990s. Back then, it was the default setting for almost every NFL offense, with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WR) viewed as a change-up, not the norm.

Times have evolved considerably. In 2024, 11 personnel is not just the new "regular"; it is the default personnel by a substantial margin. Out of 34,331 plays in the NFL this season, 21,351 (62.2%) featured 3 WRs. Additionally, of the 180,382 yards gained this season, 114,639 (64%) came from plays in 11 personnel.

Dallas strategically geared its defense to counter this trend. They possess an ideal defense for 11 personnel and execute it proficiently, ranking among the league's best at handling smaller groupings. If that was the opposition's strategy, there were no issues. The Cowboys excel with small pass rushers, numerous defensive backs, and lead in playing dime defense (6 DBs) by a significant margin. To put it in perspective, they played dime 60.8% of the time, with the next highest, Pittsburgh, at 23.2%.
In a nutshell, if you knew the Cowboys were employing a diminutive defense at an extraordinary rate, wouldn't the most logical approach be for an opposing coaching staff to exploit that weakness? The Cowboys' reluctance to adapt to bigger offensive formations, such as multiple tight ends (12 or 13 personnel) or the resurgence of the fullback (21), becomes evident. The fundamental principle, akin to weight classes in combat sports, is that size matters in displays of strength. When a 205-lb linebacker contends with a 245-lb tight end or a 315-lb guard, sustaining the challenge for three hours becomes unlikely.

This predicament forces Dan Quinn to concede and switch to a more robust defensive personnel to counter 12 or 21 personnel. Most defenses swiftly transition from dime to a base (7 bigs, either DL or LB) when facing such formations. However, Dallas resisted this shift. Throughout 18 games this season, they ran a base defense (4-3) on only 38 snaps (3.7%). Their defensive approach consistently favored nickel, with 5+ DBs on the field for nearly 90% of all snaps, often 6 DBs, irrespective of the opposing offenses' size.

The question now is, how did this strategy fare? Let's examine the evidence:

San Francisco was in “big” offense for 43 snaps and rolled up 228 yards for 5.3 yards per snap (103 yards was the average total of 12, 13, 21, 22 personnel yardage in any NFL game by an offense).

Buffalo copied them and was in “big” offense for 42 snaps and rolled up 229 yards and 5.5 per snap.

Miami saw that and was in “big” for 33 snaps and 187 yards for 5.66 yards per snap.

And then Green Bay predictably did the same thing, 26 snaps for 224 yards for 8.62 yards per snap.

Other teams were either not aware, interested, equipped, or committed to do this. They played into Dallas’ strengths. But, these four teams leaned into where they thought Dallas could be bullied in the run and then deploy too much to stop it. When they do, you hit them with play-action behind them.

I would like to tell you that this is some advanced pro football minds that figured this out, but I will remind you again, we said this would happen on Friday when it was obvious how Green Bay would try to make this a rumble inside:
But, you must know this. Green Bay’s entire play on Sunday is going to be to get into 12 personnel and run Aaron Jones repeatedly to test the Cowboys defensive run defense. Then, they will be pairing that with play-action passing and try to stay ahead of the chains. So, if you are wondering, yes, this comes down to the familiar test for this defense. Can the Cowboys stop the run? Because if they cannot, the passing game will get going in a hurry.
Let me ask it again: How could you be so unprepared for what was surely always going to be your undoing?

Not only was Dallas unable to slow down Aaron Jones with the base Green Bay runs, but they also had no answer for the play-action behind it. But, there Dallas stayed in its familiar personnel groupings.

Why? Because the men who built this roster had no better options on the sideline. When Leighton Vander Esch was injured in San Francisco in Week 5, the Cowboys were left with youngsters from the class of ‘22, Damone Clark and Markquese Bell. Clark is listed at 240 and Bell at 205. There are almost no other linebackers on the roster at all and definitely none that play any real amount.

Was it stubbornness? Were they determined to innovate? San Francisco, Miami, and Green Bay all run a variation of the exact same offense and have been running 12 and 21 personnel for years. Buffalo and Joe Brady could not wait to run right at these guys.

What adjustments were made? What common sense was used?

Green Bay never deviated.

It was a simple and basic plan. They might have had to deviate if Dallas could get a stop or get a lead. But, if not, until 48-16, why change a thing?
  1. Run Aaron Jones all day and see if Dallas could get a stop (green lines are very bad and red lines are very good for the defense).

  1. Then, once they are tired of dealing with Aaron Jones, play-action from Jordan Love to wide open players in the middle of the field. He was 8 for 11 for 168 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a ridiculous 15.3 yards an attempt.
  2. Rinse and Repeat.
This was the issue in Week 5 in San Francisco and Week 15 in Buffalo and Week 16 in Miami.

It had not really been done in Dallas in the regular season, but this might be why the Rams would have been a better draw than Green Bay. Once Green Bay got its tight ends healthy again, we thought this might be big trouble for Dan Quinn unless he could figure out a way to put Green Bay in “must-pass” situations with either score or down and distance.

On those rare occasions, Jordan Love made some nice throws, but overall, Green Bay held the steering wheel to the game all day long. And we know what happens when Dallas is behind.

When they are behind, their best (and only) massive defensive weapon is proven to be useless. They can not rush the passer because they are defending the run constantly.

Back to Monday’s piece:
Dallas lives off getting pressure on a QB and on Sunday they had the least amount of pressure they had all season. Just four times were they credited with putting Love in a bind.
Four pressures all day long from the team that gets more QB pressures than anyone. Zero sacks and zero takeaways.

Do you know the Cowboys record under Mike McCarthy and Dan Quinn when they get zero sacks and zero takeaways?

0-1. Sunday.

They have literally not been shutout in both categories a single time until Green Bay did it on Sunday.

In fact, my guy Alex tells me: Week 7 of 2014 Seahawks @ Rams, is the only other time a Dan Quinn defense had 0 takeaways and 0 sacks in a single game.
Holy heck.
The aftermath of these playoff losses are similar from year to year. We want someone to blame and can’t believe we are back here again. I will say, though, the defensive structure is flawed and word is spreading. I wouldn’t be shocked to see division rivals experiment with 12 and 21 personnel groupings even if they don’t want to, just because they play Dallas twice. This league is too smart to be this flawed.

As we prepare for the draft, I suspect linebacker is high on the list. As someone who thinks Dan Quinn has been an excellent hire and has produced some great defenses, this one particular blind spot is a real mystery for me to understand.

JORDAN LOVE NEXT GEN CHART



Jordan Love had quite a day. He didn’t need to make many big time throws, but he did make two and we will show them below. But, honestly, quite a few of his targeted throws were to guys who were wide open. Dallas did not make things tough enough on him.

SPLASH PLAYS - WILDCARD ROUND



FILM STUDY


1Q - 15:00 - 1st and 10 - GB 25 - A.Jones left guard to GB 25 for no gain (D.Lawrence, D.Wilson).
The first play of the game was a stuffed run. DeMarcus Lawrence is remarkable on these first few plays, but it was also showing us the Green Bay running plan. Watch the TE come across the formation and attack Micah Parsons. They often call that a sniffer and it slows down a backside player in the run game. This was the Packers plan. Keep an eye on it.

1Q - 13:57 - 1st and 10 - GB 30 - A.Jones right guard to GB 27 for -3 yards (D.Clark).
The next run for the Packers is again shut down. DeMarcus Lawrence again blows this up and pushes the left tackle right into Jones. I am reminded here where we often see two negative runs and give up because we say “it isn’t working”, but Green Bay was determined to keep doing it, partly because it is the only way they could get the offense going. Big tackle for loss that sets up a 2nd and 13. They have Green Bay off schedule.

1Q - 13:22 - 2nd and 13 - GB 27 - J.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to GB 49 for 22 yards
So here is that next play. Play-action pass for the first time and the Cowboys put on a 4-man rush and get a little pressure on, but Love side steps and then Romeo Doubs opens up in front of the safeties on a Cover 2. Love did not have to fit balls into tight spaces much, but he made five throws or so that unlocked everything and this dagger concept (vertical from Watson and then Doubs runs a dig behind it) from the right shows Doubs wide open in the middle of the field. It is a very common split-safety beater.

1Q - 10:41 - 2nd and 6 - DAL 37 - A.Jones right guard to DAL 24 for 13 yards (M.Bell).
Green Bay’s first big run followed that completion and this was Jones getting 13 and this is when you looked at the linebackers here not really anywhere close to shutting this type of play down. It would foreshadow plenty.

1Q - 10:02 - 1st and 10 - DAL 24 - A.Jones right tackle to DAL 19 for 5 yards (J.Kearse).
Ok, watch 85 heading for Micah Parsons thighs. I cannot tell you how many times they ran this zone away from Micah and cutback where he should be if he can navigate around the sniffer. Green Bay had Tight Ends off-set on both sides in 12 personnel and the idea was to leave uncertainty which side they were going, but it was almost always away from Parsons. They were trying to slow him down and frustrate him which wasn’t hard since he wasn’t able to really rush the passer all day.

1Q - 3:02 - 3rd and 9 - GB 25 - J.Love pass deep middle to R.Doubs to DAL 49 for 26 yards
Here is a rare chance to put Love in a 3rd and long. Dallas is sending a 5-man pressure with Micah Parsons dropping into coverage. Green Bay is in empty with trips left. Love has to buy time, but when he does, Doubs - the No. 1 WR to the top left – runs that same deep-in that is in front of the split-safety Cover 2 deep men and is wide open on the same logo at midfield he was on last time. Nothing is more frustrating and if you pause it right before Love fires the ball, you will see Parsons looking uncomfortable as one of three zone defenders at about the 35 yard line as Doubs is wide open at the 45.

2Q - 15:00 - 1st and 16 - DAL 16 - J.Love pass short middle to R.Doubs to DAL 1 for 15 yards (D.Bland).
We are still at 7-0 here and now Green Bay has benefited from the 1st interception with beautiful field position. Green Bay is called for holding on Parsons, so perhaps they can hold it to a field goal. Instead, Green Bay isolates Doubs on DaRon Bland for a post/slant and they push it right down to the 1-yard line with another nice throw from Love. The pass protection is holding up well as they are throwing on schedule.

2Q - 7:02 - 1st and 10 - GB 26 - J.Love pass deep right to R.Doubs to DAL 35 for 39 yards (D.Clark).
Here is one of several occasions where Parsons beat his man but Aaron Jones stepped up and slowed him just long enough for Love to find Doubs shaking free of Jourdan Lewis (I won’t say it). 11-Jayden Reed did very little in this game statistically, but you keep seeing him and Christian Watson clearing out zones with their routes and Doubs heads to the vacated area. This looks like Cover 3 and Doubs loses Lewis and another huge gain. The 3rd time from their 25-yard line that Doubs gets them to midfield or better. He had not had a big year, but this game might be his career day.

2Q - 3:28 - 3rd and 7 - DAL 20 - J.Love pass deep middle to D.Wicks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd and 7. The game is at 14-0 and it is nearly halftime. Matt LaFleur calling an empty pass into the end zone is enormous trust of a QB and then for the Cowboys to bring a 6-man blitz and for Love to casually find Wicks off his back-foot throw is ridiculous. Also, notice Jayden Reed 5-yards clear of Lewis as another option for Love. You don’t want to call Cover 0 blitzes very often because there is no help for a cover man. Green Bay had two guys open and Love threw it to the more difficult one and he hit it vs Gilmore. Now, it is 20-0.

Aaron Jones vs Cowboys 3Q/4Q
The reel above is six 3rd Quarter runs (one is the 1st play of the 4th Quarter) where some of us saw a massive drop in “fight” from the Cowboys defense. They just look demoralized as the Packers ran the same back into the same concepts with the same traps and pitfalls for the Cowboys best defenders. Within two drives, Dallas’ defense appeared to tap out. It is a very depressing way to end a season, so I put it all into one supercut so you can ignore it if you wish. If you don’t wish, look at the sniffer vs Parsons concept over and over and how he looks around for help a few times.

3Q - 1:36 - 1st and 10 - DAL 38 - J.Love pass deep right to L.Musgrave for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Now, they have so many players dedicated to stopping the wide zone with Aaron Jones that Luke Musgrave goes in motion and then slips out against the grain and is as wide open as you will ever be in the NFL. This is Cover 1 and I think the motion makes Lewis and Wilson switch so Donovan Wilson appears to now have Musgrave. But, he is sure that this is a run blocker, so he plays the run with Lewis and Musgrave can make a fair catch and wander into for another touchdown. The dam has broken.

4Q - 10:28 - 4th and 2 - DAL 3 - J.Love pass short middle to R.Doubs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
And then this play which appeared to be a talking point for “running up the score” until Dallas rallied and proved the Packers sort of needed this one. It is a high danger throw as Micah takes 85-Kraft well and Love takes a chance to fit a ball into a very tiny gap in the defense and somehow gets away with it on 4th down.
It was just one of those days.

Well, that is it for the 2023 season. We will do some more clean up and I have a few essays planned about the state of affairs, but as far as our Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday-Saturday weekly in-season Cowboys content cadence, that is all she (he) wrote.

We are now in the Dallas Cowboys offseason, whether we like it or not.

Thud.
 

Smitty

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I think the Cowboys need to sign an impact FA linebacker. Like spend real money on it.

I couldn’t possibly hate more the idea going into the draft that we need to come away with a LB who will be ready to start year 1 in the first or second round.
 

Genghis Khan

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I think the Cowboys need to sign an impact FA linebacker. Like spend real money on it.

I couldn’t possibly hate more the idea going into the draft that we need to come away with a LB who will be ready to start year 1 in the first or second round.

I don't know about impact or big money guys, but a legitimate, competent 2 or 3 linebackers is very needed.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I don’t mean they need a Pro Bowler, but like an LVE or better type.
LBers are cheap too. Not a very valued position in the NFL financially. Plus the draft isn't exactly packed with high end LBer talent. Maybe 2 second rounders? Three if you want to stretch it? Not exactly a draft to go, I need 2 starting LBers. Outside of Clark and Overshown, do we have another LBer on the roster worth shit for next year (Not even saying those two are necessarily worth a shit)
 

Cowboysrock55

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Not going to get anyone.....all you'll hear is how they have to pay 3 people.
That's the real problem. If Dallas really wants to rebuild the defense they are going to need to do more then just draft some guys. And we can't just ignore the offense either. We have a massive need at RB and we need to attack that need with the same desire that we attack TE in the second round.

The only way to really fix this team is to add some dudes in free agency. We can't just sit back and add no one yet again.
 

Chocolate Lab

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That's the real problem. If Dallas really wants to rebuild the defense they are going to need to do more then just draft some guys. And we can't just ignore the offense either. We have a massive need at RB and we need to attack that need with the same desire that we attack TE in the second round.
They need to do something they never do, which is make a couple of smart trades of current players for draft picks. Jerry never wants to do that because we're always "close" and in his mind you never subtract from that.

I'm not saying blockbusters, but players you can afford to lose for mid round picks.
 

Cujo

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The only way to really fix this team is to add some dudes in free agency. We can't just sit back and add no one yet again.

They'll add a couple out of the bargain bin the 3rd week of free agency like they always do. You can Brady bottle lock that shit.
 

Rev

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They'll add a couple out of the bargain bin the 3rd week of free agency like they always do. You can Brady bottle lock that shit.
Welcome to Dallas. Deejay Dallas and Eno Benjamin
 

p1_

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The good thing about this game (from a Jerry Jones is a horrible GM/Owner perspective)
is that the fanbase has the long offseason to think about how bad this loss was.

Theres no masking or deception with false positives the organization could put forward to try to soothe the anger. Its there, raw and painful for everyone to have to see. For months and months.

Jerry cant spin or talk his way around the stank. Not that he wont try, especially once the draft rolls around and he thinks people have forgotten the loss.
 
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