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DQ Report, Week 13 - The Save Situation
Dallas defense is bruised and bloodied, but stood tall when it mattered most
BOB STURM
DEC 5, 2023
Thursday was easily the toughest night the Cowboys defense has experienced at home. They are used to dictating terms to their opponents and bullying their way to an easy night. The Seattle Seahawks were not having it. To their credit, they came to town as an underdog and decided to not respect the Cowboys defense to a point of fear and loathing.
Rather, they thought they would throw a few haymakers to see if they could buckle the home team a bit.
And, they did. Numerous times.
Below, please find the game-by-game statistics of this season so far. Yes, you will find a 421-yard mauling in San Francisco and an embarrassing 400-yard day of issues in Arizona. But, this one was a 334-yard passing day against Dallas and as you can see, there has been nothing close to that in 2023.
In fact, it is easily the worst passing day conceded since Gardner Minshew put up 355 against the Cowboys on Christmas Eve last year - also in a home Cowboys win. Before that, there were two dates in 2021 against Las Vegas and Derek Carr in a Thanksgiving Day debacle and that opening night shootout in Tampa Bay to start the season.
Given that we are talking four times in three seasons, I am not going to read too much into it. But, yes, this was a tough night for the secondary and it was mostly DaRon Bland and Jayron Kearse.
Bland, who was just featured last week in this space as we raved about his amazing story, was charged with 8 receptions allowed for 169 yards. But, I will credit him with this – much like the defense – he responded in time to help save the game and the win.
It just was a long, long night.
DK Metcalf is a difficult matchup for Bland. When the Cowboys switched to Gilmore things really quieted down. But, then they just switched to the rookie:
Here, as you will see in the film study, it was a spot where Jourdan Lewis fought his tail off late and might have saved the day.
And finally, Lockett was the right fit for Bland.
Remember, when the game began last Thursday, the Seahawks were not in the NFL’s Top 20 in either offensive points or offensive yards.
How???
Back in Week 6, I introduced one of my new “big ideas” as the defensive save stat. I invite you to head back there if you’d like to review, but here is my loose definition:
Not only did Dallas need to get a stop to end the game, but as you can see below, they actually needed to get three stops. I believe they only get one save, but they really had to work for this one after they dug themselves a very deep hole.
Sometimes, you have to draw a wall on your scorecard to stop the bleeding. In the final three possessions, they managed to allow zero points. Anything worse than that and they might have lost.
But, they got the save and for the second time this season, the defense took a lead and got the stop they needed.
So, yeah, it was a tale of two games.
Here are the Dan Quinn defense save opportunities from 2021-2023. 12 opportunities and this is their 7th save.
I am not sure if the stat has legs for league-wide consumption, but I kind of like it. And I guess that is what matters here at #SturmStack.
As you can see, plenty of red. Lots of issues because the Seahawks have three receivers who gave the Cowboys fits in this game and it really makes us wonder why Seattle is not a more dynamic offense every week. If Geno Smith is throwing it like that, it seems they would be in a much better spot in the standings. They have Dallas convinced of their upside and ceiling!
We know the Cowboys are the heaviest man-coverage team in the NFL, but I suspect they called more zone than usual because they didn’t think they could match up.
Well, as you can see above, they couldn’t match up in zones either, evidently, and maybe should have stayed in the zones.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 13
Dallas had 14 splashes on Thursday and seven of them were in that very important fourth quarter. We will cover both the good and the bad below in our expansive film study, but I choose to focus on how well they finished this game because it could have been a disaster unless this defense took a stand. They did, so I will try to sell you on the idea that they responded very well to adversity.
I saved extra time for extra film because, boy, do we need it today.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 7:37 - 3rd and 8 - SEA 27 - G.Smith pass deep middle to D.Metcalf for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the play that obviously got the game going. It is actually one of the more classic plays in NFL history as we have seen Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin do this countless times.
This translates through eras, right? This deep slant/post that measures the massive DK Metcalf against Bland in what appears to be Cover 4. I say appears, because the charting data says that. But many have suggested that this is actually rolling into Cover 3.
That, of course, would take Donovan Wilson out of blame for diving down into the middle, because in Cover 3, that is what he would do if Hooker is Deep middle. Either way, we probably should just analyze it like this – if a throw can hit a guy that big in stride that perfectly, you are probably not going to be able to stop it. He is a real matchup problem, as Bland is learning right here.
1Q - 2:44 - 2nd and 8 - SEA 43 - G.Smith pass deep left to D.Metcalf pushed ob at DAL 23 for 34 yards (D.Bland).
Now, this, is Cover 1. Man across the board with a single-high safety. This is a matter of the Seahawks being offended that the Cowboys think DaRon Bland is now a lockdown on Metcalf and they want to prove it. This is the next possession after the 73-yard touchdown and they are going to clear out half the field to let Metcalf run a go against Bland. The safety does not address this soon enough, so if Geno puts it where it needs to be, we will see this is a bad matchup.
I imagine now, Dan Quinn is understanding that we have probably found Metcalf’s ceiling.
2Q - 0:13 - 1st and 10 - DAL 30 G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to J.Smith-Njigba . PENALTY on DAL-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at DAL 30 - No Play.
Right before halftime, we see a good example of the Seahawks deciding to get really aggressive – almost feeling all night that if we are going to make this a game, we have to attack relentlessly. Really nice bunch concept and I cannot swear that they are attacking Bland on this But, a deep throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that looked like another deep touchdown on his account, but it was eventually converted over to a defensive pass interference.
2Q - 0:07 - 1st and Goal - DAL 1 - G.Smith pass short left to D.Metcalf for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
So, next play, are you guys still going to have Bland try to check Metcalf man-up? Ok, Geno is still going to go directly to him on an easy slant. Use the RB to clear out the flat defender and feast. Dallas will need to rethink everything at the half.
3Q - 3:02 - 3rd and 7 - SEA 28 - G.Smith pass short right intended for T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at SEA 38.
This is a big third down where the game started to turn back to the Dallas defense and you can see some of the new matchups in man coverage.
Bland and Gilmore have flipped and he is drawing much more Lockett, with Gilmore getting much more Metcalf (although on this man-coverage snap, it is Metcalf in the slot against Jourdan Lewis).
Here, Geno seems to cover the man who is least-open (I love Smith-Njigba up top on a mirrored route), but they keep challenging Bland. But, man, look at his stickiness and his anticipation. This is expert stuff for Bland and this is what makes him a top slot defender. I cannot understate how impressive it is that he is still playing with this level of ferocity after his rough night.
So, is Seattle done? They are not.
3Q - 1:04 - 1st and 10 - SEA 30 - G.Smith pass deep left to N.Fant to DAL 45 for 25 yards (J.Kearse).
Dallas would play a lot of zone this game, but they were very smart about who they attacked. Here is Cover 1 and Jayron Kearse is running with Noah Fant – yet another Iowa tight end who us draft nerds swooned about, but has not really lived up to it – and this is another wonderful throw from Geno. I am tempted to say that we saw Geno’s finest night of spinning the ball that he has ever had. Also, if you can catch Kearse on verticals, he seems much better at the short and physical assignments.
3Q - 0:01 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 45 - G.Smith pass short left to Z.Charbonnet to DAL 6 for 39 yards
This is that drive at the end of the third quarter and Seattle leading, 28-27. Seattle keeps attacking and just like at the end of the second quarter, they ended this one with a huge play. Watch how well they time up this screen and once the blockers get out front, it is out the gate.
Now, see if you can spot 14-Markquese Bell before the snap looking really confused. I think he is lined up incorrectly and 33-Damone Clark is trying to tell him. Too late, he is caught out of position and to his credit he sprints across the field to try to save the moment – but Charbonnet shakes him off.
Now, look at 92-Dorance Armstrong. This is so impressive from him. He never stops and actually saves a touchdown after being close to Geno when the ball was caught. You have to love the hustle.
4Q - 14:22 - 2nd and Goal - DAL 3 - G.Smith pass short left to D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one is interesting. Two plays after that big play, now we have the Cowboys playing Cover 1. The whole idea for the offense is to run defenders into eachother, of course. But, it is tough to see what Kearse is seeing here. He appears to be the deep safety in a Cover 1, but in the end-zone, deep is not very deep. He is trying to get back to the post, Metcalf is running Gilmore across and it looks like Bland is also there to double team. So, Kearse is really not involved and might even be trying to get back to 11-Smith-Njigba who is open at the back. Either way, they run right into eachother and Metcalf is wide open. And Gilmore is irate with Kearse for getting in his way. Such is life in the tight red zone. Seattle leads now, 35-27 and Dallas is frustrated.
Now, Dallas has to make a stand. Remember, I told you most of the splash plays were in the fourth quarter?
Here, down 35-30, Dallas must get stops.
4Q - 8:54 - 2nd and 7 - SEA 38 - G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to W.Dissly (D.Lawrence).
This is where Lawrence makes two plays on this drive that really make a difference. The first one he meets Parsons at the QB, but Geno was great at composure and getting the ball out rather than taking sacks. Still, Lawrence gets a pass batted down splash here.
4Q - 7:08 - 4th and 1 - DAL 46 - Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (D.Lawrence).
Next drive and now Dallas is up, 38-35. Closing time.
4Q - 3:20 - 3rd and 4 - SEA 49 - G.Smith pass incomplete short left to J.Smith-Njigba (J.Lewis).
This is where the heat is on. Dallas is bringing five and a sixth (Kearse) is right there as a green-dog blitzer. This is man-up and they are trying to make Geno make a very quick decision.
If I am his OC, I am reminding him that I have DK Metcalf, but he thinks his rookie slot can get after Jourdan Lewis. Now, I give Lewis a hard time for not being a great cover option, but I have to credit him. He makes two huge stops in the final moments of this game for his two splashes. This is one of them where he flirts with getting there too early. But, no flag so he did it perfectly.
4Q - 3:16 - 4th and 4 - SEA 49 - G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to J.Smith-Njigba.
Next snap and everything is the same. Six-man pressure, man across, and Geno has no time. If he did, Smith-Njigba has leverage on Bland, but Smith knows it is 4th down. He has to get the ball out, so he fires it in the general direction and hopes for the best. The rookie can’t find the ball and Bland almost gets another interception. Dante Fowler and Lawrence are both on Geno from the edges.
Below, the final drive. Up 41-35, this possession probably should not have had this amount of time, but we will call this the “bail out our head coach for his time management” drive.
4Q - 1:15 - 3rd and 2 - 50 Yard Line - G.Smith pass incomplete short right to J.Smith-Njigba (J.Lewis).
This is 2-man from the Cowboys. Man coverage with 2-high safeties and that is just a four-man pressure. Here, Smith-Njigba runs a crosser with Lewis and this should be a nice gain, but Lewis makes an incredible play. One of his finest coverage snaps as a Cowboy, because this is a critical moment. So good.
4Q - 1:11 - 4th and 2 - G.Smith pass incomplete short right to D.Dallas [M.Parsons].
And then the last, a 4th-and-2 from midfield and they needed the defense to make one more play. This was another 6-man pressure where Seattle had designed a slip out to their RB DeeJay Dallas into the flat behind Micah Parsons who they would let come free. Parsons is too fast for this play and Lawrence was behind him sensing the play to Dallas so he was there to stifle the plan, as well. Geno was dealing with Parsons in his lap as he tried to get the ball out, but it never had a chance. Parsons would not register a sack in this game, but he absolutely did his Josh Sborz tribute and got the final out for this save.
I hope you didn’t mind me digging into that film a bit deeper to get both the good and the bad properly represented. You don’t want to give an opponent that much and you know the Eagles are going to try to duplicate it with their guys, but you love the fourth quarter responses.
Dallas defense is bruised and bloodied, but stood tall when it mattered most
BOB STURM
DEC 5, 2023
Thursday was easily the toughest night the Cowboys defense has experienced at home. They are used to dictating terms to their opponents and bullying their way to an easy night. The Seattle Seahawks were not having it. To their credit, they came to town as an underdog and decided to not respect the Cowboys defense to a point of fear and loathing.
Rather, they thought they would throw a few haymakers to see if they could buckle the home team a bit.
And, they did. Numerous times.
Below, please find the game-by-game statistics of this season so far. Yes, you will find a 421-yard mauling in San Francisco and an embarrassing 400-yard day of issues in Arizona. But, this one was a 334-yard passing day against Dallas and as you can see, there has been nothing close to that in 2023.
In fact, it is easily the worst passing day conceded since Gardner Minshew put up 355 against the Cowboys on Christmas Eve last year - also in a home Cowboys win. Before that, there were two dates in 2021 against Las Vegas and Derek Carr in a Thanksgiving Day debacle and that opening night shootout in Tampa Bay to start the season.
Given that we are talking four times in three seasons, I am not going to read too much into it. But, yes, this was a tough night for the secondary and it was mostly DaRon Bland and Jayron Kearse.
Bland, who was just featured last week in this space as we raved about his amazing story, was charged with 8 receptions allowed for 169 yards. But, I will credit him with this – much like the defense – he responded in time to help save the game and the win.
It just was a long, long night.
DK Metcalf is a difficult matchup for Bland. When the Cowboys switched to Gilmore things really quieted down. But, then they just switched to the rookie:
Here, as you will see in the film study, it was a spot where Jourdan Lewis fought his tail off late and might have saved the day.
And finally, Lockett was the right fit for Bland.
Remember, when the game began last Thursday, the Seahawks were not in the NFL’s Top 20 in either offensive points or offensive yards.
How???
Back in Week 6, I introduced one of my new “big ideas” as the defensive save stat. I invite you to head back there if you’d like to review, but here is my loose definition:
Can you get that stop at that moment when you really, really need it?
Not only did Dallas need to get a stop to end the game, but as you can see below, they actually needed to get three stops. I believe they only get one save, but they really had to work for this one after they dug themselves a very deep hole.
Sometimes, you have to draw a wall on your scorecard to stop the bleeding. In the final three possessions, they managed to allow zero points. Anything worse than that and they might have lost.
But, they got the save and for the second time this season, the defense took a lead and got the stop they needed.
So, yeah, it was a tale of two games.
Here are the Dan Quinn defense save opportunities from 2021-2023. 12 opportunities and this is their 7th save.
I am not sure if the stat has legs for league-wide consumption, but I kind of like it. And I guess that is what matters here at #SturmStack.
As you can see, plenty of red. Lots of issues because the Seahawks have three receivers who gave the Cowboys fits in this game and it really makes us wonder why Seattle is not a more dynamic offense every week. If Geno Smith is throwing it like that, it seems they would be in a much better spot in the standings. They have Dallas convinced of their upside and ceiling!
We know the Cowboys are the heaviest man-coverage team in the NFL, but I suspect they called more zone than usual because they didn’t think they could match up.
Well, as you can see above, they couldn’t match up in zones either, evidently, and maybe should have stayed in the zones.
SPLASH PLAYS - WEEK 13
Dallas had 14 splashes on Thursday and seven of them were in that very important fourth quarter. We will cover both the good and the bad below in our expansive film study, but I choose to focus on how well they finished this game because it could have been a disaster unless this defense took a stand. They did, so I will try to sell you on the idea that they responded very well to adversity.
I saved extra time for extra film because, boy, do we need it today.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 7:37 - 3rd and 8 - SEA 27 - G.Smith pass deep middle to D.Metcalf for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is the play that obviously got the game going. It is actually one of the more classic plays in NFL history as we have seen Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin do this countless times.
This translates through eras, right? This deep slant/post that measures the massive DK Metcalf against Bland in what appears to be Cover 4. I say appears, because the charting data says that. But many have suggested that this is actually rolling into Cover 3.
That, of course, would take Donovan Wilson out of blame for diving down into the middle, because in Cover 3, that is what he would do if Hooker is Deep middle. Either way, we probably should just analyze it like this – if a throw can hit a guy that big in stride that perfectly, you are probably not going to be able to stop it. He is a real matchup problem, as Bland is learning right here.
1Q - 2:44 - 2nd and 8 - SEA 43 - G.Smith pass deep left to D.Metcalf pushed ob at DAL 23 for 34 yards (D.Bland).
Now, this, is Cover 1. Man across the board with a single-high safety. This is a matter of the Seahawks being offended that the Cowboys think DaRon Bland is now a lockdown on Metcalf and they want to prove it. This is the next possession after the 73-yard touchdown and they are going to clear out half the field to let Metcalf run a go against Bland. The safety does not address this soon enough, so if Geno puts it where it needs to be, we will see this is a bad matchup.
I imagine now, Dan Quinn is understanding that we have probably found Metcalf’s ceiling.
2Q - 0:13 - 1st and 10 - DAL 30 G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to J.Smith-Njigba . PENALTY on DAL-D.Bland, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at DAL 30 - No Play.
Right before halftime, we see a good example of the Seahawks deciding to get really aggressive – almost feeling all night that if we are going to make this a game, we have to attack relentlessly. Really nice bunch concept and I cannot swear that they are attacking Bland on this But, a deep throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that looked like another deep touchdown on his account, but it was eventually converted over to a defensive pass interference.
2Q - 0:07 - 1st and Goal - DAL 1 - G.Smith pass short left to D.Metcalf for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
So, next play, are you guys still going to have Bland try to check Metcalf man-up? Ok, Geno is still going to go directly to him on an easy slant. Use the RB to clear out the flat defender and feast. Dallas will need to rethink everything at the half.
3Q - 3:02 - 3rd and 7 - SEA 28 - G.Smith pass short right intended for T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by D.Bland at SEA 38.
This is a big third down where the game started to turn back to the Dallas defense and you can see some of the new matchups in man coverage.
Bland and Gilmore have flipped and he is drawing much more Lockett, with Gilmore getting much more Metcalf (although on this man-coverage snap, it is Metcalf in the slot against Jourdan Lewis).
Here, Geno seems to cover the man who is least-open (I love Smith-Njigba up top on a mirrored route), but they keep challenging Bland. But, man, look at his stickiness and his anticipation. This is expert stuff for Bland and this is what makes him a top slot defender. I cannot understate how impressive it is that he is still playing with this level of ferocity after his rough night.
So, is Seattle done? They are not.
3Q - 1:04 - 1st and 10 - SEA 30 - G.Smith pass deep left to N.Fant to DAL 45 for 25 yards (J.Kearse).
Dallas would play a lot of zone this game, but they were very smart about who they attacked. Here is Cover 1 and Jayron Kearse is running with Noah Fant – yet another Iowa tight end who us draft nerds swooned about, but has not really lived up to it – and this is another wonderful throw from Geno. I am tempted to say that we saw Geno’s finest night of spinning the ball that he has ever had. Also, if you can catch Kearse on verticals, he seems much better at the short and physical assignments.
3Q - 0:01 - 2nd and 10 - DAL 45 - G.Smith pass short left to Z.Charbonnet to DAL 6 for 39 yards
This is that drive at the end of the third quarter and Seattle leading, 28-27. Seattle keeps attacking and just like at the end of the second quarter, they ended this one with a huge play. Watch how well they time up this screen and once the blockers get out front, it is out the gate.
Now, see if you can spot 14-Markquese Bell before the snap looking really confused. I think he is lined up incorrectly and 33-Damone Clark is trying to tell him. Too late, he is caught out of position and to his credit he sprints across the field to try to save the moment – but Charbonnet shakes him off.
Now, look at 92-Dorance Armstrong. This is so impressive from him. He never stops and actually saves a touchdown after being close to Geno when the ball was caught. You have to love the hustle.
4Q - 14:22 - 2nd and Goal - DAL 3 - G.Smith pass short left to D.Metcalf for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one is interesting. Two plays after that big play, now we have the Cowboys playing Cover 1. The whole idea for the offense is to run defenders into eachother, of course. But, it is tough to see what Kearse is seeing here. He appears to be the deep safety in a Cover 1, but in the end-zone, deep is not very deep. He is trying to get back to the post, Metcalf is running Gilmore across and it looks like Bland is also there to double team. So, Kearse is really not involved and might even be trying to get back to 11-Smith-Njigba who is open at the back. Either way, they run right into eachother and Metcalf is wide open. And Gilmore is irate with Kearse for getting in his way. Such is life in the tight red zone. Seattle leads now, 35-27 and Dallas is frustrated.
Now, Dallas has to make a stand. Remember, I told you most of the splash plays were in the fourth quarter?
Here, down 35-30, Dallas must get stops.
4Q - 8:54 - 2nd and 7 - SEA 38 - G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to W.Dissly (D.Lawrence).
This is where Lawrence makes two plays on this drive that really make a difference. The first one he meets Parsons at the QB, but Geno was great at composure and getting the ball out rather than taking sacks. Still, Lawrence gets a pass batted down splash here.
4Q - 7:08 - 4th and 1 - DAL 46 - Z.Charbonnet left tackle to DAL 46 for no gain (D.Lawrence).
Obviously, they needed to make a stand and Lawrence getting two splashes on this drive was just what he is asked to do.
Next drive and now Dallas is up, 38-35. Closing time.
4Q - 3:20 - 3rd and 4 - SEA 49 - G.Smith pass incomplete short left to J.Smith-Njigba (J.Lewis).
This is where the heat is on. Dallas is bringing five and a sixth (Kearse) is right there as a green-dog blitzer. This is man-up and they are trying to make Geno make a very quick decision.
If I am his OC, I am reminding him that I have DK Metcalf, but he thinks his rookie slot can get after Jourdan Lewis. Now, I give Lewis a hard time for not being a great cover option, but I have to credit him. He makes two huge stops in the final moments of this game for his two splashes. This is one of them where he flirts with getting there too early. But, no flag so he did it perfectly.
4Q - 3:16 - 4th and 4 - SEA 49 - G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to J.Smith-Njigba.
Next snap and everything is the same. Six-man pressure, man across, and Geno has no time. If he did, Smith-Njigba has leverage on Bland, but Smith knows it is 4th down. He has to get the ball out, so he fires it in the general direction and hopes for the best. The rookie can’t find the ball and Bland almost gets another interception. Dante Fowler and Lawrence are both on Geno from the edges.
Below, the final drive. Up 41-35, this possession probably should not have had this amount of time, but we will call this the “bail out our head coach for his time management” drive.
4Q - 1:15 - 3rd and 2 - 50 Yard Line - G.Smith pass incomplete short right to J.Smith-Njigba (J.Lewis).
This is 2-man from the Cowboys. Man coverage with 2-high safeties and that is just a four-man pressure. Here, Smith-Njigba runs a crosser with Lewis and this should be a nice gain, but Lewis makes an incredible play. One of his finest coverage snaps as a Cowboy, because this is a critical moment. So good.
4Q - 1:11 - 4th and 2 - G.Smith pass incomplete short right to D.Dallas [M.Parsons].
And then the last, a 4th-and-2 from midfield and they needed the defense to make one more play. This was another 6-man pressure where Seattle had designed a slip out to their RB DeeJay Dallas into the flat behind Micah Parsons who they would let come free. Parsons is too fast for this play and Lawrence was behind him sensing the play to Dallas so he was there to stifle the plan, as well. Geno was dealing with Parsons in his lap as he tried to get the ball out, but it never had a chance. Parsons would not register a sack in this game, but he absolutely did his Josh Sborz tribute and got the final out for this save.
I hope you didn’t mind me digging into that film a bit deeper to get both the good and the bad properly represented. You don’t want to give an opponent that much and you know the Eagles are going to try to duplicate it with their guys, but you love the fourth quarter responses.