Sturm: Dissecting the Cowboys - Understanding 4-year conveyor belt of NFL roster building

[Cowboysrock55]

I mean it is possible that Dak is just a choke artist.

 

[ZeroClub]

I'm glad that the Cowboys are doing their version of "going all in" for this season. Their version is conservative, but it does look like they've upgraded on both sides of the ball. I think it is worth a shot. I'm in favor of rolling the dice one more time with Dak. If it ends poorly and it's on him, I'd be ready for a reboot at both QB and head coach.

Jerry issues run through all of this. They waited on signing Dak and drove up his price. They hired an offensive-minded head coach but required him to sit on his hands while Kellen Moore ran the offense. So now Dak is paid more than what some think he's worth and no one really knows if McCarthy should or shouldn't be the head coach because he hasn't been allowed to demonstrate what he does or doesn't bring to the team. This season, McCarthy will show what he can do and he'll do it with a QB who is widely seen as one of the best in his conference. That approximates fairness.

 

[son of deadrise]

It's too easy to say the solution is to dump Dak and sell your soul to the Devil in the draft with the (probably) futile hope that you'll draft a savior. It rarely happens.

But what if when Dak comes up for his next renewal the front office says, sorry, you're topped out at . . . $40 million. And we're looking to the future. We want a QB who can take the team to the next level.

What are Dak and his agent going to do? Shop him around at $45 million-plus if he goes limp at the end of the 2023 season again? Fine. Go ahead. Frees up all kinds of cap space.

 

[boozeman]

I mean it is possible that Dak is just a choke artist.

Like Romo? Could be. It takes a Hall of Famer QB or nothing with this franchise.

 

[shoop]

Like Romo? Could be. It takes a Hall of Famer QB or nothing with this franchise.

Romo was good enough. Dak is as well but Romo was asked to do too much and Dak isn’t transcendent.

 

[son of deadrise]

Like Romo? Could be. It takes a Hall of Famer QB or nothing with this franchise.

30 years without a sniff at a NFCC game means they need someone who at least approaches that status. But a QB is only as good as the GM and front office who put the pieces together.

 

[ravidubey]

So this year the real simple recipe for success would have been to cut Dak and draft either Will Levis (instead of Mazi) or Hendon Hooker (instead of Schoonmaker) and then commit to giving Levis or Hooker the next 4-5 years to show if they are stars.

It may well have been.

I'm conflicted because it sets us back a year, but the cap increases enormously next year and gives us a chance to eat the amortization.

But how optimistic would you feel with Hooker behind center, Mazi and Micah beginning the basis of what might become Doomsday for the 2020's, and knowing in two years the cap space this team will have would be huge enough to go after a Superbowl run.

Right now I have 0 hope, barring 2022 Eagles-season luck, that Dak can win deep into the playoffs.

He's above average on his best day and can't run or take a hit anymore.

 

[boozeman]

It may well have been.

I'm conflicted because it sets us back a year, but the cap increases enormously next year and gives us a chance to eat the amortization.

But how optimistic would you feel with Hooker behind center, Mazi and Micah beginning the basis of what might become Doomsday for the 2020's, and knowing in two years the cap space this team will have would be huge enough to go after a Superbowl run.

Right now I have 0 hope, barring 2022 Eagles-season luck, that Dak can win deep into the playoffs.

He's above average on his best day and can't run or take a hit anymore.

So Hooker and Levis give you hope?

 

[ravidubey]

So Hooker and Levis give you hope?

Levi’s not so much.

With Dak, barring the team getting very lucky or landing on overwhelming talent at every position, we aren’t winning a Superbowl until he’s gone. He’s already in decline. Can’t run, gets hurt regularly.

With Hooker I honestly don’t know. He could be bad, good, or great, but at least I’ll have hope, because he can get better.

Dak has to get lucky

 

[Simpleton]

If Dak is somewhere around the 8th-12th highest paid QB in the league I think we could theoretically make that work in terms of building a team strong enough to win a championship.

Not sure what that AAV is exactly, maybe around $45M a year given the extensions that are about to drop with Burrow and Herbert in the next year or so.

This year will tell us a lot though now that Moore is gone, if we see a repeat performance in the playoffs in a game where the defense holds the opponent under 20 I'd be just as inclined to tell him to fuck off depending on what this upcoming QB class looks like outside of Williams and Maye who will both go top 5.

 

[Simpleton]

And Terrence Steele isn't getting 15/year, the Kaleb McGary deal is a perfect comp.and that came in at 11.5/year.

I'd also be fine giving Biadasz the same deal McGovern got, around 7-8/year.

 

[ravidubey]

If Dak is somewhere around the 8th-12th highest paid QB in the league I think we could theoretically make that work in terms of building a team strong enough to win a championship.

Why? Based on the evidence, it’s hard to see how this team is likely to do it. It’s possible, but in the way that anything is possible.

This isn’t the 80’s where you could keep building the defense with multiple HOF-level players and then ride Joe Morris to help Phil Simms win a Superbowl.

This era requires a QB to win Superbowls. Look no further than the 49ers who are stacked with unique talent. We have a Parsons, they have a Bosa, Deebo, Kittle, and McCaffery. Hell Fred Warner is awesome too, but a step back. Any of those prior four stars can take over an game, yet in the end they can’t win a Lombardi because their QB just isn’t enough.

 

[NoDak]

Then explain Stafford. Foles. Eli Manning. Flacco. All QBs that were said were to be not good enough. They won super bowls in this era.

They had good teams around them. And they were good enough to win. And so can Dak.

 

[ravidubey]

Then explain Stafford. Foles. Eli Manning. Flacco. All QBs that were said were to be not good enough. They won super bowls in this era.

They had good teams around them. And they were good enough to win. And so can Dak.

Manning kept improving until he won his first Superbowl, having just turned 27 before the game. I mean how many times did that guy kill us in the 4th quarter throwing last minute passes? Stafford always had the talent, airdropped onto a Super Bowl-caliber team with everything but a QB.

Foles and Flacco are in the ‘lucky’ category, Foles a flat out miracle. They got hot throwing perfect passes through their playoff runs. We are not lucky. Dak has never gotten hot like that, multiple games in a row, vs playoff competition

All but Foles had 1st round pedigree and very strong arms.

In fact, the Rams and Stafford are a great example of a team that knew when to cut bait on their own 1st overall pick in Goff.

Jerry would have stuck with Goff no matter what, like he’s doing now with Dak, imagining his ham sandwich is a six-foot sub.

Again, it’s possible.

 

[Simpleton]

Then explain Stafford. Foles. Eli Manning. Flacco. All QBs that were said were to be not good enough. They won super bowls in this era.

They had good teams around them. And they were good enough to win. And so can Dak.

I'd even throw Matt Ryan in there, he's about the same caliber of QB as Dak and more or less won a Super Bowl if not for a once in a lifetime fluke comeback/set of circumstances.

 

[Cotton]

He's above average on his best day

This is simply not true.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

This is simply not true.

Yeah that's just an extreme over exaggeration.

 

[son of deadrise]

Manning kept improving until he won his first Superbowl, having just turned 27 before the game. I mean how many times did that guy kill us in the 4th quarter throwing last minute passes? Stafford always had the talent, airdropped onto a Super Bowl-caliber team with everything but a QB.

Foles and Flacco are in the ‘lucky’ category, Foles a flat out miracle. They got hot throwing perfect passes through their playoff runs. We are not lucky. Dak has never gotten hot like that, multiple games in a row, vs playoff competition

All but Foles had 1st round pedigree and very strong arms.

In fact, the Rams and Stafford are a great example of a team that knew when to cut bait on their own 1st overall pick in Goff.

Jerry would have stuck with Goff no matter what, like he’s doing now with Dak, imagining his ham sandwich is a six-foot sub.

Again, it’s possible.

Flacco had a fearsome, smash mouth defense lining up on the other side of the ball. And Stafford is the perfect example of going all-in on QB when everything else -- including a good coach -- is in place.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Flacco had a fearsome, smash mouth defense lining up on the other side of the ball. And Stafford is the perfect example of going all-in on QB when everything else -- including a good coach -- is in place.

It's why we need to go all in. Everyone else is.

 

[Rev]

I would rather not have to worry about if we are going to get lucky but we are stuck with Dak. Maybe he can do it like those other examples but I don't think he will.

I do think he is above average in the regular season. He will almost always have us in the position to go to the playoffs so there is that. He is just going to have to show me more come playoff time and playoff like instances in the regular season.