Sturm: Decoding Schotty Week 18 - Closing the Books

dpf1123

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Decoding Schotty Week 18 - Closing the Books
For the 11th time in 20 years, the Cowboys missed the playoffs – even with a strong QB1.
Bob Sturm
Jan 06, 2026




Here we go. Our objectives for today:
  • Overall Offensive Evaluation vs Giants in Week 18
  • Looking at 2025 from a season-wide view
  • The Offseason Depth Chart Look Ahead
  • Jaydon Blue has emerged
  • Look at plenty of All-22 film and see what we can see.


OVERALL OFFENSIVE EVALUATION


It was an ugly end to the Cowboys offensive campaign and I might argue a bit of a thud in December from this group. We rightfully spend time talking about how good this offense is at its very best, but to be fair, it spent most of December not being at its very best.

Had they strung together a December of great efficiency and production, then perhaps they would have been in the playoffs. Instead, partially due to the offense sputtering when it mattered most, they finished the year 1-4 and therefore will spend another season on-the-outside-looking-in.

The efficiency we speak of is that on third downs and in the red zone. The Cowboys have a cheat code, as we suggest, in these situations with a QB who is amongst the best in the league at finding the answers and getting the ball where it needs to be and two franchise WRs. Still, in these situations, they went from a dominant offense for most of the year to a very poor one down the stretch.

In December, Dallas was 25th in the league on third downs at 34.4% after spending the entire season at 5th in the league until then. Similarly, they were 13th in the NFL in red zone efficiency (touchdown percentage for drives in the red zone) through Thanksgiving at 60.4% and then hit the wall in December with an incredibly disappointing stretch over five games of “must-win” football where they dropped to 47%.

Even worse, from the Detroit Lions through the Los Angeles Chargers – when they were still alive in the playoff race – they rolled out a 4-for-11 stretch (36%) which is a primary reason why you lose football game as the worst red zone offense in the NFL this year was New Orleans and they were still 44.4%.

In other words, I would prefer that we don’t put this all on the defense. The offense gets all the resources, all the cap space, all the best draft picks, and all the adoration. In my opinion, we must use some nuance here and judge each side of the ball appropriately.

The offense had a very good season, but to act like they are blameless in this disappointing year is not correct. “To whom much is given, much is expected” as we pull from Luke 12:48 to make our football point. The offense was given everything and therefore converting a key third down or red zone opportunity definitely swings those games in December that you had to win but went 0-3.



I think it is more than appropriate to gather here today – on the day Matt Eberflus lost his job – to suggest that the offense should probably not feel like they did everything they could do. They were tasked with carrying this thing and specifically in those three games between Weeks 14 to 16, I believe you can blame the offense just as much as the defense.
Meanwhile, onto Sunday’s “nothing burger” of a game, the results were brutal as all the red below will indicate:


You won’t believe this, but the Cowboys tried “half-measures” on a decision again.

They make decisions and decide to go half-way. This is sort of where I am right now with Brian Schottenheimer. He makes decisions, but never all the way in. Either you play Dak Prescott and try to win the game or you sit him and don’t. But, the Cowboys chose the third option. Which is play him, but don’t really risk anything in the passing game. Play a very careful and conservative game and then pull him at halftime.

You didn’t accomplish anything. You didn’t win, you didn’t look good, and you also didn’t go the other way and give Joe Milton a full game. You were stuck in the middle with your decision appearing to be indecision.

I really hope Schotty decides next year to commit to his instincts and go all-in either way. Too many times this year he seemed like he was trying to decide what his bosses wanted and ended up dancing in the middle ground way too much for my tastes and way too similar to Jason Garrett.
So, you finish 7-9-1 and you lose four games in which your offense doesn’t get to 20 points. They are in yellow, below:


Chicago, Arizona, the LA Chargers, and now the New York Giants. In these four games they never scored more than 17 points and went 0-4. Dallas was favored in all four of these games and that is the difference between a seven-win season and eleven wins.

In fact, they were favored 11 times this year out of 17 games. They went 5-6.


Looking at 2025 from a season-wide view


OK, for both sides of the ball this week, I just want to look at those 10 key stats that I watch carefully all year. This time, it is to size up the 2025 offense and compare it some to the 2024 offense. Of course, 2024 had its own issues and one was that Dak Prescott was gone for half the season. So, you will see improvement, but we will also be looking from a league-wide context.


Points – Dallas finished 7th this year in points scored and join Detroit as teams with that fiery an offense who still missed the playoffs. But, yes, 28 points per game should be good enough to win a lot of football games if your defense has a clue.

Total Yards – The league averaged 326 yards per game and Dallas finished at 391 which is a very impressive number. Raw production numbers are not a problem with this team as it looks ahead. They will get those numbers.

Rushing Yards – This is a huge one for me and it speaks well of Schottenheimer and Klayton Adams to have Dallas Top 10 in both rushing yards per game and rushing yards per play. I would not call it dominant, but after years of not really feeling like Dallas could run the ball, they took major strides forward this year and to have Tyler Booker and Tyler Smith up front is exciting for the future of bullying teams at the line of scrimmage. This was a very good season in this category.

Passing Yards – 2nd in total yards per game and 7th in total yards per pass are both very nice numbers. The bar is very, very high if you are going to pay Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens what they will need to be paid, so we are going to complain if they go cold on the money downs and clutch drives. But, overall, there are plenty of teams that are both terrified and jealous of dealing with this trio in the next few seasons.

Turnovers – League average or so in giveaways which is fine. Its not elite and its not terrible at all. The issue is that your defense never got the ball, but this isn’t their day. Still, Dallas had the 3rd-worst turnover differential and of the 10 worst teams in this stat, nine of the teams missed the playoffs. San Francisco dodged the bullet, but also played the league’s easiest schedule.

3rd Down – We covered this one above. They were fantastic all year through Thanksgiving and then fizzled horribly. They finished 12th in the league, but 25th in December and I will tell you the league adjusted to the Cowboys plans and now it is up to them to dial in some solutions before next year. 12th is not good enough for the resources dedicated.

Red Zone – Finishing 18th in this stat is more of what I am talking about. Huge improvement from 31st, of course, but you cannot be below league average in cutting teams open near the goal-line. Pickens was supposed to fix most of this, but they clearly have more work to be done. You cannot kick field goals in 2025 and win enough games. This is now a touchdown league.

Explosives – 20 yard plays were back for Dallas and that is a good thing. Again, the well went dry some down the stretch, but overall, this must be up near the top of the league and we saw great strides here for most of the year.

Sacks/Attempt – Pass protection was good, but can get better. Dak gets the ball out to save his own skin and we even saw play-calling adjusted to protect, but if there was an issue as the season went along, it was dealing with pressure pick-ups which made us think the Cowboys need a 3rd down RB solution for 2026.

Time of Possession – Not nearly as important a stat as we are led to believe, but you do like to see the Cowboys in better control of the game situations and they were this year for the most part. That is no small job given the lack of defensive stops.

The Offseason Depth Chart Look Ahead

I will keep this brief because we have months and months to do this, but here is my depth chart for the offense and it gives you a peek at “work to be done.” Red names are UFA’s and yellow names are RFA’s.


Obviously, George Pickens and Javonte Williams are the questions and I will write about both of them in the weeks to come. I am 99% sure I am keeping Pickens and I would like to see Javonte return, too, but he is a bit more disposable in terms of finding a replacement. He was very good, but you can find a RB. You cannot find a George Pickens very often. He is not a perfect player, but he is an absurdly good WR2.

Otherwise, the offense has very few questions beyond the one about where Tyler Smith needs to play – LG, for me and I believe for him – and then how you handle the rest of your OL around that including Terence Steele’s future and Tyler Guyton/Nate Thomas.

But, let’s be honest, this offense is very good and very stable into 2026. Not a ton to get too concerned about, to be fair.

Jaydon Blue has emerged

Behold, the Jaydon Blue game log from his rookie season.


That is right, until Sunday, he was barely used. We aren’t even sure Sunday happens if not for Malik Davis getting banged up and put on the IR, but on Sunday, we finally got to see Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah get a chance to be a big part of the running game as we felt teased about since April when they were both drafted on Day 3.
If you don’t mind, let’s show you a reel of his most fun runs from Sunday:

We won’t probably ever know why he was avoided all season and I am sure those stories from Austin about his immaturity and maintenance levels will follow him, but the tape is the tape. And his tape on Sunday suggests that you can feel a bit better about the RB group after seeing that lateral shift with the turbo boost button fully engaged. He has the juice. Now, we need to know they trust him and will get him on the field. I know it is frustrating, but the more I cover this league, the less I get concerned about rookie seasons for 21 year-olds. They are usually redshirting and Day 3 guys just need to figure out the league. Let’s hope he did this year and will be a new man in 2026.

FILM STUDY

Now, eight plays from Sunday and the first several will focus on those bright moments from young Jaydon, since that is roughly my only bright spot from the offense in Week 18. It was a rough watch.

1Q - 7:15 - 1-10-NYG 42 - J.Blue up the middle to NYG 31 for 11 yards (D.Belton).

This is an inside zone call with a split zone action from the tight end as Spann-Ford is tasked with picking off the backside (unblocked, otherwise) defender 51-Carter. As you can see, without that block from Spann-Ford, this play is doomed (and we saw some unblocked assaults on Blue later in the game). Here Blue has a moment to dart into the secondary and looks very convincing in traffic. I really liked what I saw here and evidently, so did Schottenheimer because he came right back to him on the next play.

1Q - 6:31 - 1-10-NYG 31 - J.Blue left tackle to NYG 4 for 27 yards (D.Belton).

They come right back with a huge counter with 52-Booker as the lead to the edge and the 87-Ferguson will be blocker going north. This is not exactly how you draw it up because the Giants are trying to cause some issues here, but I really like how Ferguson and Booker figure it out on the fly and Ferguson is extra impressive. Then, Blue in space is a problem. The ability to move laterally is really what sets Jaydon apart. We need much more of this in 2026.

1Q - 0:32 - 2-13-NYG 14 - J.Blue up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Then this one is the ‘ol trap play that ends up as a touchdown as the Giants 94-Chatman is momentarily confused as Booker runs right by him to the LB and for a moment Chatman thinks they forgot to block him, before he runs right into 67-Hoffman with a head of steam. Everyone else wins at the 2nd level and Blue trots in almost untouched. You may remember this home run touchdown on a trap with Javonte Williams at the Jets (same field!) back in Week 5.

2Q - 5:49 - 1-10-NYG 34 - D.Prescott pass deep middle to B.Spann-Ford to NYG 11 for 23 yards (R.Payton).

When we talk about this football team, it is important we don’t wallow in failure constantly without acknowledging some promising success stories. Now, nobody is saying that guys like Jaydon Blue, Ryan Flournoy, and Brevyn Spann-Ford are world beaters, but we are saying they are all Day 3 or later prospects that look like NFL quality players who can continue to take steps forward and establish careers. This is another seam route to the 2024 UDFA and I think this can easily be your TE2 behind Jake Ferguson very soon. We should also say he did just have his 26th birthday, so he is a bit of an older prospect.

2Q - 2:54 - 4-2-NYG 3 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to G.Pickens (R.Payton).
Penalty on DAL-T.Steele, Offensive Holding, declined.


Big member of the George Pickens fan club, but I also say that he has to go get the ball more often than we have seen this month. In Detroit, there was an interception because he did not step to the QB and allowed the DB to get over him and make a deflection. On this play, I know he is trying to stay on the goal-line and past the sticks, but in doing so, again, he allows a smaller player to get on the ball before him. Now, it wouldn’t have counted because of a Terence Steele hold, but you would at least have been given another down with the penalty. Pickens needs to attack the ball. Michael Irvin should have a brief chat with George, imo.

3Q - 8:45 - 3-5-DAL 26 - J.Milton pass deep left to R.Flournoy pushed ob at NYG 41 for 33 yards (D.Belton). Penalty on NYG-D.Banks, Illegal Contact, declined.

Boy, Ryan Flournoy has had a nice year. Look at his stats below and tell me you expected him to get almost to 500 yards this season. I didn’t. I wasn’t even sure he was a definite to make this roster as he was ranked 58th on our August rankings. But, we knew he was an explosive athlete and here he runs a great route and Joe Milton hits him in the secondary for 33 yards and a penalty. Great stuff from another old kid.


3Q - 1:52 - 4-1-NYG 47 - J.Milton left end pushed ob at NYG 24 for 23 yards (R.Payton).

As for Joe Milton, I am fine with another year of him in the system. I am also fine with bringing in competition for QB2 in 2026, but Milton can still do things that normal QBs cannot do. Unfortunately, he also can still not do things that normal QBs can do, so there is some plus-minus to consider. But, on 4th-and-1, this is always a great idea. Zone read with a lead blocker is great here.

4Q - 9:16 - 1-10-DAL 27 - J.Milton pass short middle intended for B.Spann-Ford INTERCEPTED by B.Okereke at DAL 40. B.Okereke to DAL 33 for 7 yards (R.Flournoy).

But, here is that seam to Spann-Ford that Dak hit, but the Giants are sitting on it. You can see it is the exact same concept, but Dak knows where 58-Okereke is and Milton does not. The defenders in this league are too good to just guess. But, this is what is happening here and Milton needs to learn from this or he won’t be in the league very long.
Well, that closes the book on the Decoding series for 2025. The bottom line is the bottom line – not good enough. The offense is clearly the stronger side of the ball, but plenty of room to do better.

Another year of QB1 play that is top tier and missing the playoffs. It has happened way too much with Tony Romo and Dak Prescott since 2006. 20 years of having a far-better-than average QB1 and only nine playoff years to show for it. That is maybe the most damning stat of the Jerry Jones last two decades. In a league where 14 teams make the playoffs each year, it is pretty disappointing to be living in a world where you don’t even make the playoffs half the time with these two QB1 at the helm.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Yeah it’s weird how many weapons we have and we have an elite short yardage power back in Javonte… yet can’t improve on 18th in the red zone.
On top of that we have two big receiver that are great at contested catches. You'd think that would make for a pretty easy redzone offense.
 
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Too many predictable play action bootlegs to the right that worked maybe twice all year but were ran usually once a game or so.
The best is the play action bootleg to a pass to the TE who’s running a route literally across the line of scrimmage for no gain … just lose that fuckin play along with the CeeDee jet sweeps …..and can we please figure out how to run a screen play? For god sakes …
 

Stars

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We need to run more layered plays from bunch in the red zone where we are picking off defenders with other receivers. I see other teams capable of doing it, but it's not something we've ever done much as a team.
 
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