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Decoding McCarthy, Week 18 - The 2023 Evolution
Cowboys think they are a different offense and now get opportunity to prove it
BOB STURM
JAN 9, 2024
We have arrived at the finish line.
Or is it the starting line?
Either way, it is a distinctive divider in the study that must tell us that they have taken the 18-week journey of testing that the league offers for the right to participate in the four-week journey that will determine historical significance for 14 teams that remain.
Some will not survive Saturday and will be sent home on Jan. 13th. They will have technically made the playoffs, but only barely.
This Cowboys franchise cannot bear to exit the playoffs that way. It would easily destroy any progress that we thought they might have made in 2023. But before we reckon with the ramifications of what lies ahead, let’s briefly view the year-over-year progress for this offense.
We have talked enough about why the changes were made to this offense that necessitated the changes at the top of the offense. Kellen Moore would exit and Mike McCarthy would slide over to his specialty. Then, he would seem to hand a large part of the offense’s direction, architecture, and decisions over to his veteran QB. This empowerment of Dak Prescott would finally deputize him in a way where he takes true ownership and — if done correctly — could prove to be what has been missing the last few Januarys around here: an ability to diagnose in real time and get to the solutions to problems presented when the opportunities present themselves.
I believe we have seen that happen as Prescott has played his best football of his career. I believe that Sunday was yet another example of Prescott showing real growth and the ability to play excellent games at a higher rate than ever before. Thus, the offense joins him.
Here are the 10 big metrics we keep on the offense (you will see 11, but the first two are different ways to show the same thing – offensive points and offensive points per game). Here are the final numbers for 2022:
Good stuff, but passing yards and explosive plays are too low. Turnovers are too high.
Here is 2023:
Passing yards much higher, explosive plays higher, turnovers much lower. Rushing yards are also lower, red zone efficiency was the biggest drop off.
Now, 2023 since the Week 5 debacle that inspired change:
This is the one that confirms the evolution has been positive. If you compare the first and the third, I believe this is the one to believe in as it consists of the final 12 games of 2023 and shows the growth.
In other words, the year over year progress is obvious. They have been able to say they are a significantly better offense heading into the playoffs. And that is something that many thought would not happen. Remember those who were sure that letting Kellen go would be a major mistake and that it would surely result in Justin Herbert having a career season in Los Angeles.
That has been proven to be a silly discussion.
But, now, a far more serious discussion. Does any of this growth move the needle in the playoffs? Because that was what this was all about. The most basic demonstrating of growth is to bust through the divisional round glass ceiling on the strength in part of the offensive production. Because the last several playoff exits (2018, 2021, and 2022) all seemed to be because the offense betrayed them.
That cannot happen again.
Dallas made Sunday interesting for most of the first half. As we discussed in the Morning After piece, they were hit with some resistance until they took control with the most beautiful thing a drive chart can show: back-to-back-to-back-to-back touchdown drives to surround halftime with 14 going in and 14 coming out.
That is the ultimate way to suffocate any sort of chaos Washington was attempting to generate and a gorgeous “check, please” way to finish off a division title.
There was a spot in this game where Washington took a 10-7 lead and it was more than halfway through the second quarter. From there what Dallas did on that next drive would determine much of the final outcome.
Here it is from the gamebook and it is drive No. 4 above:
The first two plays were passes and it was aided by a roughing penalty on Cody Barton for his jump on CeeDee Lamb. I would rather focus on those five plays to end the drive and I want to do this because I know this is where Mike McCarthy is most pleased.
See, that Arizona loss was because the Cowboys offense allowed the offensive line personnel to alter their disposition. In that game, like this one, key members were missing up front and Dallas stopped doing what they want to do.
On Sunday, without both starting guards, Dallas kept running their offense and in this game, they sought to take control back by running right behind backups No. 66-TJ Bass and No. 67-Brock Hoffman with five straight interior runs. I made the reel below. Check it out:
Tell me that reel wasn’t beautiful work up front. Slow down the play speed and watch guard-center-guard fire off the ball and right into the teeth of Washington. This sequence should give them confidence in their backup guards and, to a lesser extent, their ability to run inside.
This is not San Francisco, but to do this on the road and recapture the game on Sunday was a wonderful thing to see on the eve of the playoffs.
Remember, Dallas has flunked this test in the past.
The beat-down will yield nothing but green ink. It was a thorough work-over that was impressive to behold.
The 31 first downs and 60% on third downs in particular are noteworthy of praise and any time you cash in five times in the red zone, you are not going to be disappointed.
It was a great performance. I would say much of the last three weeks has been a nice offensive reaction to the Buffalo stinker.
NEXT GEN DAK PRESCOTT WEEK 18
You never want to see that red dot and the 20-plus yard throws were incomplete. But from zero-to-20 yards, in a game where you needed Dak to take the game by the scruff of the neck, it looks like he nearly threw a perfect game. The green dot laser show combined with those four touchdowns seems to indicate he was feeling it.
And why not? When he plays the NFC East, he feeds at a rate that would make you think those three fan bases would talk the least trash about him. Instead, they seem to talk the most. It seems pretty weird, to be honest.
He is now 32-8 in his career against this division.
Before we get to the film study, I do want to address the “pull your starters” discussion briefly. Again, if you know how I feel about these things, this may be repetitive.
Bear with me.
For those who don’t, I will tell you that I am the media guy that does not usually have a huge issue with playing your football players in games that fans have decided are over.
This popped up Sunday where I guess the discussion evolved quickly at 35-10 with 4:06 left in the third quarter to getting Prescott, Lamb, Tyron Smith, and others out of the game. Surely the cases of Bradley Chubb and Sam LaPorta helped push fans to this feeling, where every play represents a chance at an ACL injury and that ACL injury would destroy all hopes and dreams.
I get the argument and much like Micah Parsons holding calls, I guess I am guilty of not being quite as obsessed with it as everyone else. I recognize that football is dangerous and risks are around every corner. But, I also talk to enough of these coaches to know they don’t manage games out of fear. They know injuries are horrible, but given they lose players in Wednesday practices, they also know that you cannot play football without occasional injuries as part of the life.
So, I wanted to write this to simply let you know how I feel. The Cowboys allowed the starters to play under a very normal NFL policy: If we are up big, you are not starting any new drives in the fourth quarter. Since the Cowboys got the ball back in the third quarter, they remained in the game until that drive ended with 8:57 to go.
Then they were all pulled. And I am 100% fine with that decision. Could they have been pulled earlier? Sure. But, any coach who has been around as long as Mike McCarthy has lost some very painful big leads late in games and he will always make sure the win probability is at 100% before he pulls the plug. I am not asking anyone else to change their mind, but I think fans are far more worried about what might happen than coaches. Coaches just don’t think that way and I am ok with that.
FILM STUDY
Let’s not go too deep here, but along with the running plays above, I thought I would focus on the five passes that were most noteworthy. Four touchdowns and a tipped interception.
1Q - 6:30 - 1st and Goal - WAS 3 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Tolbert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play is great fun because Dallas is running the same play-action bootleg they love to run. The issue here is that the Cowboys do not block No. 94-Daron Payne and No. 96-James Smith-Williams is right behind him. Washington has Dak dead to rights and he can simply back-pedal to keep the play alive. Meanwhile, Cover 0-man which means there is no help for young No. 13-Emmanuel Forbes who is taking Jalen Tolbert.
All Dak has to do here is throw a back-shoulder pass when Forbes shows his name-plate to the QB. Of course, Dak doesn’t really have time to see much with Payne screaming at him. But, Dak’s throw is perfectly done and Dallas turns a potential bad moment into a touchdown which is how you know your guy is going to have a day.
Now, it is not uncommon to leave No. 96 unblocked here. But, No. 94-Payne? He is supposed to be blocked by Steele. This is a whiff, I bet you agree. Let’s not whiff on guys this big and talented, but Dak figured it out and hopefully Steele bought him a Coke, because that could have been a very bad moment and instead, on comes the kicker for the PAT.
2Q - 11:36 - 2nd and 6 - WAS 39 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by J.Martin (J.Harris) at WAS 38.
This was an ominous moment in real time as Dallas had to stay away from the turnovers to keep this game from getting tight. Obviously, this wasn’t in the plans as they want a short route to Michael Gallup and instead, the ball gets tipped, Gallup stumbles, and the interception is served on a platter.
But, look what happened as we see it from the end zone view:
Watch the DT lineup against No. 66-TJ Bass. That is No. 91-John Ridgeway, who you may recall, is the Arkansas kid the Cowboys drafted in the 2022 draft. Watch Ridgeway who is running a T/E stunt, but also he is going to hold Bass and therefore when the edge No. 56-Jalen Harris (who had just blocked the FG) came around the edge and was unblocked and got a piece of the ball.
You can see Bass wondering how the ref could miss that call. Very big miss there by the refs, which keeps with a theme.
2Q - 0:29 - 1st and Goal - WAS 4 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Here is that underneath touchdown to Lamb where he is the No. 3 after motion and has the inside to work against his man, No. 36-Kyu Blu Kelly. But Kelly has help because No. 48-Sean Chandler is waiting to fire down on Lamb if he crosses the center line. He does, but his downhill hit barely moves Lamb. Continuously very impressed with Lamb’s functional strength. He is stronger than he looks.
3Q - 8:37 - 2nd and Goal - WAS 6 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one is so much fun. Dak is feeling it now and in the zone. He holds the ball for 7.3 seconds on this play, I believe. It is Tony Romo’s finest work. Stand back there, direct traffic, stay alive, and then fire a strike into a brief hole in the zone.
Dak Prescott has reached the next level.
END ZONE
This end zone view will really show you what is happening. It is so beautiful on every level. This is how to see an offense with confidence killing off the divisional race.
3Q - 4:11 - 3rd and Goal - WAS 5 - D.Prescott pass short right to B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
And now, the final of his four touchdown throws. Six man pressure and Cover 0 behind it. This is also one of McCarthy’s favorite route combinations (scored a touchdown on it in Super Bowl 45) with two slant/ins from the outside two and a corner from the No. 3. This is stealing money versus Cover 0 or even Cover 1 if the throw is right the defense has no chance. The throw was right.
END ZONE
Just feather it and drop it in the bucket. Brandin Cooks and Dak have become quite familiar with eachother down the stretch with these red zone throws. Eight touchdowns since Week 6 between the two.
So there you have it. Playoff preview is coming, but for now, heck of a way to end the season from this offense. They have to feel good about returning home for two games to a building that has featured all sorts of success for them.
BONUS CONTENT
Today, I appeared on Locked on Packers to preview the game and to talk about both teams (I have a niche!) and wanted you to either enjoy it or silently rage that I am a cheesehead.
Either way, I wanted you to know about it.
Cowboys think they are a different offense and now get opportunity to prove it
BOB STURM
JAN 9, 2024
We have arrived at the finish line.
Or is it the starting line?
Either way, it is a distinctive divider in the study that must tell us that they have taken the 18-week journey of testing that the league offers for the right to participate in the four-week journey that will determine historical significance for 14 teams that remain.
Some will not survive Saturday and will be sent home on Jan. 13th. They will have technically made the playoffs, but only barely.
This Cowboys franchise cannot bear to exit the playoffs that way. It would easily destroy any progress that we thought they might have made in 2023. But before we reckon with the ramifications of what lies ahead, let’s briefly view the year-over-year progress for this offense.
We have talked enough about why the changes were made to this offense that necessitated the changes at the top of the offense. Kellen Moore would exit and Mike McCarthy would slide over to his specialty. Then, he would seem to hand a large part of the offense’s direction, architecture, and decisions over to his veteran QB. This empowerment of Dak Prescott would finally deputize him in a way where he takes true ownership and — if done correctly — could prove to be what has been missing the last few Januarys around here: an ability to diagnose in real time and get to the solutions to problems presented when the opportunities present themselves.
I believe we have seen that happen as Prescott has played his best football of his career. I believe that Sunday was yet another example of Prescott showing real growth and the ability to play excellent games at a higher rate than ever before. Thus, the offense joins him.
Here are the 10 big metrics we keep on the offense (you will see 11, but the first two are different ways to show the same thing – offensive points and offensive points per game). Here are the final numbers for 2022:
Good stuff, but passing yards and explosive plays are too low. Turnovers are too high.
Here is 2023:
Passing yards much higher, explosive plays higher, turnovers much lower. Rushing yards are also lower, red zone efficiency was the biggest drop off.
Now, 2023 since the Week 5 debacle that inspired change:
This is the one that confirms the evolution has been positive. If you compare the first and the third, I believe this is the one to believe in as it consists of the final 12 games of 2023 and shows the growth.
- Team scoring up from 26.4 to 29.4 - (up 11%)
- Team yardage up from 355 per game to 390 - (up 10%)
- Passing yards per game up from 220 to 282 - (up 28%)
- Third downs up from 45.5% to 47.8%
- Explosive plays up from 10.7% (19th in NFL) to 11.9% (6th)
- Points per drive up from 2.3 to 2.99 - (up 30%)
- Turnovers way down from 10.8% to 8.5% - (down 27%)
In other words, the year over year progress is obvious. They have been able to say they are a significantly better offense heading into the playoffs. And that is something that many thought would not happen. Remember those who were sure that letting Kellen go would be a major mistake and that it would surely result in Justin Herbert having a career season in Los Angeles.
That has been proven to be a silly discussion.
But, now, a far more serious discussion. Does any of this growth move the needle in the playoffs? Because that was what this was all about. The most basic demonstrating of growth is to bust through the divisional round glass ceiling on the strength in part of the offensive production. Because the last several playoff exits (2018, 2021, and 2022) all seemed to be because the offense betrayed them.
That cannot happen again.
Dallas made Sunday interesting for most of the first half. As we discussed in the Morning After piece, they were hit with some resistance until they took control with the most beautiful thing a drive chart can show: back-to-back-to-back-to-back touchdown drives to surround halftime with 14 going in and 14 coming out.
That is the ultimate way to suffocate any sort of chaos Washington was attempting to generate and a gorgeous “check, please” way to finish off a division title.
There was a spot in this game where Washington took a 10-7 lead and it was more than halfway through the second quarter. From there what Dallas did on that next drive would determine much of the final outcome.
Here it is from the gamebook and it is drive No. 4 above:
The first two plays were passes and it was aided by a roughing penalty on Cody Barton for his jump on CeeDee Lamb. I would rather focus on those five plays to end the drive and I want to do this because I know this is where Mike McCarthy is most pleased.
See, that Arizona loss was because the Cowboys offense allowed the offensive line personnel to alter their disposition. In that game, like this one, key members were missing up front and Dallas stopped doing what they want to do.
On Sunday, without both starting guards, Dallas kept running their offense and in this game, they sought to take control back by running right behind backups No. 66-TJ Bass and No. 67-Brock Hoffman with five straight interior runs. I made the reel below. Check it out:
Tell me that reel wasn’t beautiful work up front. Slow down the play speed and watch guard-center-guard fire off the ball and right into the teeth of Washington. This sequence should give them confidence in their backup guards and, to a lesser extent, their ability to run inside.
This is not San Francisco, but to do this on the road and recapture the game on Sunday was a wonderful thing to see on the eve of the playoffs.
Remember, Dallas has flunked this test in the past.
The beat-down will yield nothing but green ink. It was a thorough work-over that was impressive to behold.
The 31 first downs and 60% on third downs in particular are noteworthy of praise and any time you cash in five times in the red zone, you are not going to be disappointed.
It was a great performance. I would say much of the last three weeks has been a nice offensive reaction to the Buffalo stinker.
NEXT GEN DAK PRESCOTT WEEK 18
You never want to see that red dot and the 20-plus yard throws were incomplete. But from zero-to-20 yards, in a game where you needed Dak to take the game by the scruff of the neck, it looks like he nearly threw a perfect game. The green dot laser show combined with those four touchdowns seems to indicate he was feeling it.
And why not? When he plays the NFC East, he feeds at a rate that would make you think those three fan bases would talk the least trash about him. Instead, they seem to talk the most. It seems pretty weird, to be honest.
He is now 32-8 in his career against this division.
Before we get to the film study, I do want to address the “pull your starters” discussion briefly. Again, if you know how I feel about these things, this may be repetitive.
Bear with me.
For those who don’t, I will tell you that I am the media guy that does not usually have a huge issue with playing your football players in games that fans have decided are over.
This popped up Sunday where I guess the discussion evolved quickly at 35-10 with 4:06 left in the third quarter to getting Prescott, Lamb, Tyron Smith, and others out of the game. Surely the cases of Bradley Chubb and Sam LaPorta helped push fans to this feeling, where every play represents a chance at an ACL injury and that ACL injury would destroy all hopes and dreams.
I get the argument and much like Micah Parsons holding calls, I guess I am guilty of not being quite as obsessed with it as everyone else. I recognize that football is dangerous and risks are around every corner. But, I also talk to enough of these coaches to know they don’t manage games out of fear. They know injuries are horrible, but given they lose players in Wednesday practices, they also know that you cannot play football without occasional injuries as part of the life.
So, I wanted to write this to simply let you know how I feel. The Cowboys allowed the starters to play under a very normal NFL policy: If we are up big, you are not starting any new drives in the fourth quarter. Since the Cowboys got the ball back in the third quarter, they remained in the game until that drive ended with 8:57 to go.
Then they were all pulled. And I am 100% fine with that decision. Could they have been pulled earlier? Sure. But, any coach who has been around as long as Mike McCarthy has lost some very painful big leads late in games and he will always make sure the win probability is at 100% before he pulls the plug. I am not asking anyone else to change their mind, but I think fans are far more worried about what might happen than coaches. Coaches just don’t think that way and I am ok with that.
FILM STUDY
Let’s not go too deep here, but along with the running plays above, I thought I would focus on the five passes that were most noteworthy. Four touchdowns and a tipped interception.
1Q - 6:30 - 1st and Goal - WAS 3 - D.Prescott pass short middle to J.Tolbert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play is great fun because Dallas is running the same play-action bootleg they love to run. The issue here is that the Cowboys do not block No. 94-Daron Payne and No. 96-James Smith-Williams is right behind him. Washington has Dak dead to rights and he can simply back-pedal to keep the play alive. Meanwhile, Cover 0-man which means there is no help for young No. 13-Emmanuel Forbes who is taking Jalen Tolbert.
All Dak has to do here is throw a back-shoulder pass when Forbes shows his name-plate to the QB. Of course, Dak doesn’t really have time to see much with Payne screaming at him. But, Dak’s throw is perfectly done and Dallas turns a potential bad moment into a touchdown which is how you know your guy is going to have a day.
Now, it is not uncommon to leave No. 96 unblocked here. But, No. 94-Payne? He is supposed to be blocked by Steele. This is a whiff, I bet you agree. Let’s not whiff on guys this big and talented, but Dak figured it out and hopefully Steele bought him a Coke, because that could have been a very bad moment and instead, on comes the kicker for the PAT.
2Q - 11:36 - 2nd and 6 - WAS 39 - D.Prescott pass short middle intended for M.Gallup INTERCEPTED by J.Martin (J.Harris) at WAS 38.
This was an ominous moment in real time as Dallas had to stay away from the turnovers to keep this game from getting tight. Obviously, this wasn’t in the plans as they want a short route to Michael Gallup and instead, the ball gets tipped, Gallup stumbles, and the interception is served on a platter.
But, look what happened as we see it from the end zone view:
Watch the DT lineup against No. 66-TJ Bass. That is No. 91-John Ridgeway, who you may recall, is the Arkansas kid the Cowboys drafted in the 2022 draft. Watch Ridgeway who is running a T/E stunt, but also he is going to hold Bass and therefore when the edge No. 56-Jalen Harris (who had just blocked the FG) came around the edge and was unblocked and got a piece of the ball.
You can see Bass wondering how the ref could miss that call. Very big miss there by the refs, which keeps with a theme.
2Q - 0:29 - 1st and Goal - WAS 4 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Here is that underneath touchdown to Lamb where he is the No. 3 after motion and has the inside to work against his man, No. 36-Kyu Blu Kelly. But Kelly has help because No. 48-Sean Chandler is waiting to fire down on Lamb if he crosses the center line. He does, but his downhill hit barely moves Lamb. Continuously very impressed with Lamb’s functional strength. He is stronger than he looks.
3Q - 8:37 - 2nd and Goal - WAS 6 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one is so much fun. Dak is feeling it now and in the zone. He holds the ball for 7.3 seconds on this play, I believe. It is Tony Romo’s finest work. Stand back there, direct traffic, stay alive, and then fire a strike into a brief hole in the zone.
Dak Prescott has reached the next level.
END ZONE
This end zone view will really show you what is happening. It is so beautiful on every level. This is how to see an offense with confidence killing off the divisional race.
3Q - 4:11 - 3rd and Goal - WAS 5 - D.Prescott pass short right to B.Cooks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
And now, the final of his four touchdown throws. Six man pressure and Cover 0 behind it. This is also one of McCarthy’s favorite route combinations (scored a touchdown on it in Super Bowl 45) with two slant/ins from the outside two and a corner from the No. 3. This is stealing money versus Cover 0 or even Cover 1 if the throw is right the defense has no chance. The throw was right.
END ZONE
Just feather it and drop it in the bucket. Brandin Cooks and Dak have become quite familiar with eachother down the stretch with these red zone throws. Eight touchdowns since Week 6 between the two.
So there you have it. Playoff preview is coming, but for now, heck of a way to end the season from this offense. They have to feel good about returning home for two games to a building that has featured all sorts of success for them.
BONUS CONTENT
Today, I appeared on Locked on Packers to preview the game and to talk about both teams (I have a niche!) and wanted you to either enjoy it or silently rage that I am a cheesehead.
Either way, I wanted you to know about it.
