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Decoding McCarthy, Week 17 - Dak and CeeDee
McCarthy has done it again. Rodgers to Davante is here with Prescott and Lamb.
BOB STURM
JAN 1, 2024
The are many similarities between the Week 16 loss in Miami and the Week 17 win vs Detroit.
Both games were decided by the slimmest of margins. Both games had a winner that felt relieved and a loser that felt like they deserved better.
Welcome to an early taste of playoff football. For the Cowboys to go 1-1 in that stretch is probably as fair an outcome as you can muster, despite the realities that 2-0 was possible and that 0-2 was, too.
This is what happens when two teams who are both capable of winning a dozen games a season go toe-to-toe.
Miami and Detroit may both be upstarts in this league, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have plenty of quality. They also have a head coach and staff that are not going to play you with extreme caution. Mike McDaniel and Dan Campbell both put together game-plans to test the Cowboys in all sorts of uncomfortable ways and they did just that. I believe that tells us a lot of good things about how the Cowboys responded. Dallas punched back over and over again and like we said, were in range of securing wins in both games.
But, 1-1 will have to do for now.
By now, you have started 2024 with the delightful news that the opposite is true in Philadelphia. They have been in free-fall mode since December began and have managed to turn 10-1 into 11-5 in five short weeks.
Philly’s Dec. 31 loss at home to Arizona is a poetic way to end a year where their fan base mentioned Dallas’ loss at Arizona in Week 3 as their principle point of comedic relief for three months. So, to lose the division title (week 18 pending) on a loss to the exact same team – but at home in front of horrified Eagles fans – was too delicious to even imagine.
When combined with the Dallas escape of Saturday Night against Detroit in which Dallas survived by the skin of their teeth, we do wonder if this year is a much different position where the Cowboys might be allowed two home games in the playoffs as well as a chance to host a NFC Championship Game if San Francisco were to falter before a proposed meeting in Santa Clara.
But, let’s not get ahead of our skis.
Dallas won on Saturday for the same reason it almost lost. Because of CeeDee Lamb and the brilliant relationship that he has forged with Dak Prescott that has allowed them both to use eachother to reach previously unvisited levels of excellence.
Lamb has improved every year of his career, but 14 months ago, when he was being analyzed for puzzling decisions down the field that were turning into interceptions, because the wide receiver seemed to be freelancing rather than helping his QB, we wondered where his path was taking him and whether Dallas bet on the wrong horse when they moved Amari Cooper out to build around Lamb.
Instead, Lamb has made them right by basically breaking all of Michael Irvin’s 1995 records. And since he did it in the 16th game, we can feel good about Lamb not requiring the bonus 17th game that Irvin never was offered.
Michael Irvin had many great years, primarily between age 25 (1991) and 29 (1995) when he was unstoppable as part of the Dallas dynasty. But, 1995 was his finest season statistically and that is why it was fun to see Lamb work by the receptions and the yardage in the same evening where Irvin and much of that dynasty team was in attendance to honor that coach, Jimmy Johnson.
Irvin has him still on first downs converted that year, but it was even something to see that Lamb has a five percent advantage on catch percentage. That was something I did not anticipate as the Aikman-to-Irvin slant felt like an automatic play in my memories.
Not only did Lamb take all of the single-season marks, but he also made a bid for the largest yardage night a Cowboy receiver has ever had in a single game. He settled for fourth highest and in doing so knocked Irvin completely out of the Top 10 of this list, too. Miles Austin’s big afternoon at Arrowhead against the Chiefs in 2009 survived by 23 yards (courtesy StatMuse).
Of all those players, only one appears on that list twice — Amari Cooper had a nice run while in Dallas, for sure.
Two things can be true.
1) CeeDee Lamb had the best receiving game we have seen in years around here with both a signature touchdown moment and countless third-down catches that tortured the Lions secondary.
And, 2) he nearly lost the game with his casual goal-line fumble.
First, the great with his Next Gen Chart:
This chart above shows you how Lamb is used. This is a credit to Mike McCarthy and the design of this offense (yes, you are allowed to notice the good parts, too!) as we describe this picture as: “Lamb lines up literally everywhere and runs literally every route there is.”
After the 2022 season, I had a conversation with The Athletic’s Diante Lee and we were discussing the last level of Dak’s development and how he can get there. We both agreed that the idea would be for Dak and CeeDee to find that level where they nearly become one in thought and wreck the league with an unstoppable chemistry. Here is Lee’s partial answer:
Yes, Mike McCarthy has faults, but if you cannot see that he has duplicated the unstoppable Rodgers-Adams connection with Prescott-Lamb this very season, I am not sure we are watching the same thing.
But, obviously, all of the greatness was nearly cancelled out with a moment where Lamb did not have the ball secured at the goal. This fumble could have cost everything.
The particular thing that is upsetting would be that the ball was knocked free by the defender. Instead, you can see that Lamb is looking to extend the ball and the impact jars it free. Easy for guy with laptop to say that is inexcusable, but it is.
The drive chart above shows that the unstoppable Cowboys connection of Dak to Lamb accounted for two giveaways in a game where multiple giveaways will almost always cost you the entire game. A series of amazing events secured the win, but our two heroes also put the game in jeopardy.
Again, both can be true.
So, again, Dallas sits at precisely 20 points for the second consecutive week and has scored 50 points over the last three games. It is a good way to prepare for January, because teams won’t let you score 40 very often in the playoffs.
But, otherwise, for the Cowboys to run the ball so badly and still be at 6.2 yards per play and nearly 384 overall is all the effects of a 92-yard touchdown. It was not their best offensive showing and we know the mistakes should not be ignored:
Dak had a wonderful game and continues to play at a very high level. He will not win the MVP as Lamar Jackson is taking that thing, but he has legitimately belonged in the conversation and has leveled up again.
We will see in the film review that his work all night was strong, but look at the splits where the Lions blitzed him 23 times:
Obviously they got three sacks, but when he got the ball off, it was 11.3 yards per attempt! He stands tall and now for the season, you can see that blitzing Prescott is a losing proposition.
Look at every number up there. Across the board, Prescott destroys blitzes. I know we do this too much, but let’s do it again:
In 2023, Dak Prescott has easily been a Top 5 QB in this league and probably in the Top 3. He has been wonderful and again, that doesn’t mean perfect. But, it does mean that Mike McCarthy has done it yet again. He has raised an already good QB to a higher level. Head Coach/QB/WR1. It is happening just like we had hoped.
Ok, Film Review and let’s get out of here.
FILM REVIEW:
1Q - 9:32 - 3rd and 4 - DAL 31 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to DET 38 for 31 yards (C.Sutton).
You like creativity and motion in your offense? Here is Michael Gallup in snap-motion where he weaves between Cook and Lamb and this certainly frees up some man coverage space where Lamb can make one man miss – 1-Sutton – and then he is off to the races. If Detroit wants to play man coverage against your best receiver, then it is your job to take a toll from them. Lamb did this all night and this is a great third-and-medium conversion.
1Q - 8:10 - 3rd and 4 - DET 32 - D.Prescott pass short right intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by I.Melifonwu at DET 19.
Now, same drive and same situation, except the Lions switch to Cover 2 here and Dak gets greedy. In fairness, Lamb is giving him the mailbox the whole time and Dak is trying to navigate the pressure, but you cannot be late on this throw to this guy. You have to know that the deep players in a zone are magnets to Lamb, especially if he is calling for it like this. May I suggest one more scan of the middle of the field to find a wide-open Michael Gallup? Easy spot for guy at his kitchen table, of course. But, look at 13 when this play breaks down.
1Q - 3:40 - 3rd and 13 - DAL 8 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play is why you pay someone like Dak Prescott the big bucks. This is third-and-13 and he is in his end zone. He has a free runner to come get a safety and he makes him miss. Not only does he make him miss, but then he puts a touchdown on the board by hitting Lamb for 92 yards. If Dallas plays two home games in the playoffs instead of zero, think back to this play as the reason. This play is one of Dak’s single best in his career — 6-man pressure, Cover zero. You either die in your own end-zone or you celebrate in theirs. Detroit wanted to test Prescott on Saturday and this is what happened.
End Zone
Again, you are in empty so if they bring six, you only have five to block them. A free rusher means no safety. If Dak can just hit Lamb….and Lamb can just bring it in…It is artwork!
What a moment.
2Q - 2:47 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (A.Hutchinson).
There were some sacks on Saturday and all of them seemed to happen the same way as that Aidan Hutchinson proved to be a real handful. Tyron Smith had given up zero sacks in 2023 and almost made it to the new year, but Hutchinson got him. He then tried a hip drop on Dak and thankfully Dak is strong enough. It would not be the last time that Hutchinson tries that maneuver. Not much your QB can do here on play-action. Tyron takes a loss.
2Q - 0:18 - 2nd and 4 - DAL 15 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -6 yards (A.Hutchinson).
Right before halftime, Hutchinson is on the inside and goes between Biadasz and Martin. Zack would love to help, but got there late. Dak would like to get the ball out, but you can see him hesitate because the Lions were converging on his pass target and rather than risk the ball from deep in his own territory before halftime, he smartly takes the sack and goes to the room. Hutchinson is no joke. He just needs help and I bet Detroit is going to effort to fix that soon.
We move ahead to the fourth quarter due to time constraints….
4Q - 10:25 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 41 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks pushed ob at DET 38 for 21 yards (B.Branch) [A.Hutchinson].
Big third down here and the Cowboys down, 13-10. Detroit is bringing a 5-man pressure and have multiple players on CeeDee Lamb. Dak, what is your plan?
Oh, stand tall and deliver a perfect lob to Brandin Cooks? I like it. What a throw and a great catch. Cooks seems to catch everything, by the way. He is so money.
END ZONE
Here is the end zone and again, Cooks is an amazing No. 2 WR in this offense and since Week 10 has been the truth. Eight games since he has 453 yards and 5 touchdowns. He won’t get his 1,000 yards this year, but he has really come on strong.
4Q - 2:45 - 3rd and 5 - DET 42 - D.Prescott sacked at 50 for -8 yards (A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (A.Hutchinson) [A.Hutchinson], recovered by DAL-T.Steele at 50.
Dallas did not kill off the game well on Saturday and it probably came down to situations like this. 3rd and 5 and watch what they do to Lamb here. Not sure the route combo at the top of the screen because it looks like someone messed up. They nearly collide and Dak realizes at that point that the situation is dead. It was Ferguson and Cooks, but the damage is done.
End Zone
Meanwhile, as this is happening, Hutchinson destroys Terence Steele with a spin and then again seems intent on trying to break Dak in half with another hip drop. I am not saying he has an intent to injure, but this is a few cases of him trying to take Dak down violently. I realize it is football, but this is some old school stuff from Hutchinson.
4Q - 1:55 - 2nd and 14 - DET 33 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to B.Cooks.
Here is the clock management play and I don’t really want to spend much time here, but this one is where Dak claimed he went off on his own a bit. People were mad at McCarthy for play-calling here and I guess ultimately it is his offense so he maybe should demand a run play. But, with the running game in distress, he schemes up Jake Ferguson wide open in the flat to keep the clock rolling and Dak wants a kill shot. We are empowering Dak to take the offense as his own and part of that is McCarthy trusting his QB. This decision could have cost them the division, we now know. But, Dak said this “on him” to take the sure thing instead of the dagger.
Ok, Washington is next in a must win. We will do DQ on Wednesday so that I may write about the Sugar Bowl in the morning. Happy New Year!
McCarthy has done it again. Rodgers to Davante is here with Prescott and Lamb.
BOB STURM
JAN 1, 2024
The are many similarities between the Week 16 loss in Miami and the Week 17 win vs Detroit.
Both games were decided by the slimmest of margins. Both games had a winner that felt relieved and a loser that felt like they deserved better.
Welcome to an early taste of playoff football. For the Cowboys to go 1-1 in that stretch is probably as fair an outcome as you can muster, despite the realities that 2-0 was possible and that 0-2 was, too.
This is what happens when two teams who are both capable of winning a dozen games a season go toe-to-toe.
Miami and Detroit may both be upstarts in this league, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have plenty of quality. They also have a head coach and staff that are not going to play you with extreme caution. Mike McDaniel and Dan Campbell both put together game-plans to test the Cowboys in all sorts of uncomfortable ways and they did just that. I believe that tells us a lot of good things about how the Cowboys responded. Dallas punched back over and over again and like we said, were in range of securing wins in both games.
But, 1-1 will have to do for now.
By now, you have started 2024 with the delightful news that the opposite is true in Philadelphia. They have been in free-fall mode since December began and have managed to turn 10-1 into 11-5 in five short weeks.
Philly’s Dec. 31 loss at home to Arizona is a poetic way to end a year where their fan base mentioned Dallas’ loss at Arizona in Week 3 as their principle point of comedic relief for three months. So, to lose the division title (week 18 pending) on a loss to the exact same team – but at home in front of horrified Eagles fans – was too delicious to even imagine.
When combined with the Dallas escape of Saturday Night against Detroit in which Dallas survived by the skin of their teeth, we do wonder if this year is a much different position where the Cowboys might be allowed two home games in the playoffs as well as a chance to host a NFC Championship Game if San Francisco were to falter before a proposed meeting in Santa Clara.
But, let’s not get ahead of our skis.
Dallas won on Saturday for the same reason it almost lost. Because of CeeDee Lamb and the brilliant relationship that he has forged with Dak Prescott that has allowed them both to use eachother to reach previously unvisited levels of excellence.
Lamb has improved every year of his career, but 14 months ago, when he was being analyzed for puzzling decisions down the field that were turning into interceptions, because the wide receiver seemed to be freelancing rather than helping his QB, we wondered where his path was taking him and whether Dallas bet on the wrong horse when they moved Amari Cooper out to build around Lamb.
Instead, Lamb has made them right by basically breaking all of Michael Irvin’s 1995 records. And since he did it in the 16th game, we can feel good about Lamb not requiring the bonus 17th game that Irvin never was offered.
Michael Irvin had many great years, primarily between age 25 (1991) and 29 (1995) when he was unstoppable as part of the Dallas dynasty. But, 1995 was his finest season statistically and that is why it was fun to see Lamb work by the receptions and the yardage in the same evening where Irvin and much of that dynasty team was in attendance to honor that coach, Jimmy Johnson.
Irvin has him still on first downs converted that year, but it was even something to see that Lamb has a five percent advantage on catch percentage. That was something I did not anticipate as the Aikman-to-Irvin slant felt like an automatic play in my memories.
Not only did Lamb take all of the single-season marks, but he also made a bid for the largest yardage night a Cowboy receiver has ever had in a single game. He settled for fourth highest and in doing so knocked Irvin completely out of the Top 10 of this list, too. Miles Austin’s big afternoon at Arrowhead against the Chiefs in 2009 survived by 23 yards (courtesy StatMuse).
Of all those players, only one appears on that list twice — Amari Cooper had a nice run while in Dallas, for sure.
Two things can be true.
1) CeeDee Lamb had the best receiving game we have seen in years around here with both a signature touchdown moment and countless third-down catches that tortured the Lions secondary.
And, 2) he nearly lost the game with his casual goal-line fumble.
First, the great with his Next Gen Chart:
This chart above shows you how Lamb is used. This is a credit to Mike McCarthy and the design of this offense (yes, you are allowed to notice the good parts, too!) as we describe this picture as: “Lamb lines up literally everywhere and runs literally every route there is.”
After the 2022 season, I had a conversation with The Athletic’s Diante Lee and we were discussing the last level of Dak’s development and how he can get there. We both agreed that the idea would be for Dak and CeeDee to find that level where they nearly become one in thought and wreck the league with an unstoppable chemistry. Here is Lee’s partial answer:
Guess what happened in 2023?
Yes, Mike McCarthy has faults, but if you cannot see that he has duplicated the unstoppable Rodgers-Adams connection with Prescott-Lamb this very season, I am not sure we are watching the same thing.
But, obviously, all of the greatness was nearly cancelled out with a moment where Lamb did not have the ball secured at the goal. This fumble could have cost everything.
The particular thing that is upsetting would be that the ball was knocked free by the defender. Instead, you can see that Lamb is looking to extend the ball and the impact jars it free. Easy for guy with laptop to say that is inexcusable, but it is.
The drive chart above shows that the unstoppable Cowboys connection of Dak to Lamb accounted for two giveaways in a game where multiple giveaways will almost always cost you the entire game. A series of amazing events secured the win, but our two heroes also put the game in jeopardy.
Again, both can be true.
So, again, Dallas sits at precisely 20 points for the second consecutive week and has scored 50 points over the last three games. It is a good way to prepare for January, because teams won’t let you score 40 very often in the playoffs.
But, otherwise, for the Cowboys to run the ball so badly and still be at 6.2 yards per play and nearly 384 overall is all the effects of a 92-yard touchdown. It was not their best offensive showing and we know the mistakes should not be ignored:
- The running game was poor. Dallas had 21 carries for 61 yards (2.9 per) and 15 carries for 30 yards on 1st down (2 per). They thought they had to stick with it, but they were pretty bullied up front, especially with Tyler Smith exiting the game in the third quarter. They stayed stubborn on first down, despite the poor results.
- Aidan Hutchinson was a very large issue to deal with and the Lions’ disposition of crowding the box gave Dallas plenty to deal with.
- The Lions employed aggressiveness on defense, too, trying to blitz Dak into mistakes.
- And yes, the Cowboys made things difficult on themselves (again) by not bleeding the clock better inside the 2-minute warning.
Dak had a wonderful game and continues to play at a very high level. He will not win the MVP as Lamar Jackson is taking that thing, but he has legitimately belonged in the conversation and has leveled up again.
We will see in the film review that his work all night was strong, but look at the splits where the Lions blitzed him 23 times:
Obviously they got three sacks, but when he got the ball off, it was 11.3 yards per attempt! He stands tall and now for the season, you can see that blitzing Prescott is a losing proposition.
Look at every number up there. Across the board, Prescott destroys blitzes. I know we do this too much, but let’s do it again:
In 2023, Dak Prescott has easily been a Top 5 QB in this league and probably in the Top 3. He has been wonderful and again, that doesn’t mean perfect. But, it does mean that Mike McCarthy has done it yet again. He has raised an already good QB to a higher level. Head Coach/QB/WR1. It is happening just like we had hoped.
Ok, Film Review and let’s get out of here.
FILM REVIEW:
1Q - 9:32 - 3rd and 4 - DAL 31 - D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to DET 38 for 31 yards (C.Sutton).
You like creativity and motion in your offense? Here is Michael Gallup in snap-motion where he weaves between Cook and Lamb and this certainly frees up some man coverage space where Lamb can make one man miss – 1-Sutton – and then he is off to the races. If Detroit wants to play man coverage against your best receiver, then it is your job to take a toll from them. Lamb did this all night and this is a great third-and-medium conversion.
1Q - 8:10 - 3rd and 4 - DET 32 - D.Prescott pass short right intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by I.Melifonwu at DET 19.
Now, same drive and same situation, except the Lions switch to Cover 2 here and Dak gets greedy. In fairness, Lamb is giving him the mailbox the whole time and Dak is trying to navigate the pressure, but you cannot be late on this throw to this guy. You have to know that the deep players in a zone are magnets to Lamb, especially if he is calling for it like this. May I suggest one more scan of the middle of the field to find a wide-open Michael Gallup? Easy spot for guy at his kitchen table, of course. But, look at 13 when this play breaks down.
1Q - 3:40 - 3rd and 13 - DAL 8 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This play is why you pay someone like Dak Prescott the big bucks. This is third-and-13 and he is in his end zone. He has a free runner to come get a safety and he makes him miss. Not only does he make him miss, but then he puts a touchdown on the board by hitting Lamb for 92 yards. If Dallas plays two home games in the playoffs instead of zero, think back to this play as the reason. This play is one of Dak’s single best in his career — 6-man pressure, Cover zero. You either die in your own end-zone or you celebrate in theirs. Detroit wanted to test Prescott on Saturday and this is what happened.
End Zone
Again, you are in empty so if they bring six, you only have five to block them. A free rusher means no safety. If Dak can just hit Lamb….and Lamb can just bring it in…It is artwork!
What a moment.
2Q - 2:47 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 32 for -8 yards (A.Hutchinson).
There were some sacks on Saturday and all of them seemed to happen the same way as that Aidan Hutchinson proved to be a real handful. Tyron Smith had given up zero sacks in 2023 and almost made it to the new year, but Hutchinson got him. He then tried a hip drop on Dak and thankfully Dak is strong enough. It would not be the last time that Hutchinson tries that maneuver. Not much your QB can do here on play-action. Tyron takes a loss.
2Q - 0:18 - 2nd and 4 - DAL 15 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -6 yards (A.Hutchinson).
Right before halftime, Hutchinson is on the inside and goes between Biadasz and Martin. Zack would love to help, but got there late. Dak would like to get the ball out, but you can see him hesitate because the Lions were converging on his pass target and rather than risk the ball from deep in his own territory before halftime, he smartly takes the sack and goes to the room. Hutchinson is no joke. He just needs help and I bet Detroit is going to effort to fix that soon.
We move ahead to the fourth quarter due to time constraints….
4Q - 10:25 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 41 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks pushed ob at DET 38 for 21 yards (B.Branch) [A.Hutchinson].
Big third down here and the Cowboys down, 13-10. Detroit is bringing a 5-man pressure and have multiple players on CeeDee Lamb. Dak, what is your plan?
Oh, stand tall and deliver a perfect lob to Brandin Cooks? I like it. What a throw and a great catch. Cooks seems to catch everything, by the way. He is so money.
END ZONE
Here is the end zone and again, Cooks is an amazing No. 2 WR in this offense and since Week 10 has been the truth. Eight games since he has 453 yards and 5 touchdowns. He won’t get his 1,000 yards this year, but he has really come on strong.
4Q - 2:45 - 3rd and 5 - DET 42 - D.Prescott sacked at 50 for -8 yards (A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (A.Hutchinson) [A.Hutchinson], recovered by DAL-T.Steele at 50.
Dallas did not kill off the game well on Saturday and it probably came down to situations like this. 3rd and 5 and watch what they do to Lamb here. Not sure the route combo at the top of the screen because it looks like someone messed up. They nearly collide and Dak realizes at that point that the situation is dead. It was Ferguson and Cooks, but the damage is done.
End Zone
Meanwhile, as this is happening, Hutchinson destroys Terence Steele with a spin and then again seems intent on trying to break Dak in half with another hip drop. I am not saying he has an intent to injure, but this is a few cases of him trying to take Dak down violently. I realize it is football, but this is some old school stuff from Hutchinson.
4Q - 1:55 - 2nd and 14 - DET 33 - D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to B.Cooks.
Here is the clock management play and I don’t really want to spend much time here, but this one is where Dak claimed he went off on his own a bit. People were mad at McCarthy for play-calling here and I guess ultimately it is his offense so he maybe should demand a run play. But, with the running game in distress, he schemes up Jake Ferguson wide open in the flat to keep the clock rolling and Dak wants a kill shot. We are empowering Dak to take the offense as his own and part of that is McCarthy trusting his QB. This decision could have cost them the division, we now know. But, Dak said this “on him” to take the sure thing instead of the dagger.
Ok, Washington is next in a must win. We will do DQ on Wednesday so that I may write about the Sugar Bowl in the morning. Happy New Year!
