Sturm: Decoding McCarthy, Week 16-Good wasn't enough

dpf1123

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Decoding McCarthy, Week 16-Good wasn't enough
Cowboys offense left too many points and chances on the cutting room floor to win

BOB STURM
DEC 27, 2023


You can probably draw a line in the fanbase between the hardcore enthusiasts and the casuals based on a simple topic:

How worked up do you get about the Dallas Cowboys decisions when they make cuts in late August and early September?

There is no wrong answer, I suppose. But, on Sunday, we saw a good example of every decision mattering throughout the season.

Because in this game at Miami, where the Cowboys big-time players seemed to have pretty big-time games in a big-time spot, they were shown that two of the guys that were least secured in their roster spots seemed to decide the outcome.

Now, perhaps I am rationalizing things a bit, but my memory of this Christmas Eve clash with the upstart and electric Miami Dolphins will come down to two names, in particular.

And unlike the national media, it won’t be Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons here at #SturmStack.

Chuma Edoga and Hunter Luepke.

Edoga, the Cowboys swing tackle, has been watching games from the sideline since the first month of the season. He started the first four games and the Week 8 game against the Rams, but otherwise has played the blocking TE position on short yardage situations. I’m about to say something here that might cause some of you to be aghast, but I am going for it: he hasn’t been a bad option in 2023 and until the fourth quarter Sunday, he hasn’t been a major problem.

Would I rather have him on the field than Tyler Smith, Tyron Smith, or Terence Steele? Of course not, but this is not Chaz Green. This is pretty much what a NFL swing tackle looks like in today’s league. Probably not a starter, but also a guy who can start 3-4 games for you and hold up OK.

Luepke, the undrafted rookie fullback from North Dakota State, has been a core member of the Cowboys special teams outfit every game this season and has played the fourth most special teams snaps for the team (Juanyeh Thomas, Sam Williams, and Jalen Tolbert have the most).

Luepke has also had some looks in the offense, but had his playing time diminished when the Cowboys reimagined their offensive scheme after Week 5. But, ironically, there was a time this year where he appeared to be the answer to their short-yardage back situation.

Let me say this: I think he will be a very nice player for this offense in time. This rookie season is just scratching the surface, but I have zero issues with the guy.
That said, Luepke’s first-down fumble on the goal-line and Edoga’s two mental busts with the game hanging in the balance probably lost the game. Those three moments stick out to me as the difference between the idea that the offense played pretty well when the game was on the line and nearly won one of their grittiest games in years.

In reality, they needed the defense to save the day (which they couldn’t) and the offense went quiet for large swaths of the game. They left too many points on the field and needed to make sure they scored four touchdowns. Instead, they scored just two. That is not enough against a quality opponent on the road in December.

Above, you will notice the drive chart and see how frustrating this game was from a CeeDee Lamb standpoint. If we are to always “feed the studs,” then the fact that Lamb had five touches in the first quarter and three touches in the fourth quarter seems to magically coincide with the Cowboys’ most successful drives.

But, when he had zero touches in the second and third quarters, the Cowboys seemed unable to do anything. They had essentially four drives during this time – admittedly, two were inside their own 6-yard line – and only a long pass to Jalen Tolbert to show for those 18 offensive snaps is definitely something Dak will need to put together. I highly doubt he reads this piece, but I also highly doubt he isn’t aware of those two hot/cold situations in his offense and far and away his best play-maker.
Also, in this world where the Cowboys defense cannot get takeaways in road showdowns, Dallas is playing uphill all day. It may not sound like much, but 5 yards of real estate every single drive takes a toll on an offense. Dallas never gets short fields in these games and it is not something to ignore.


So, as we look above, we must conclude the following: the offense was not bad on Sunday – especially when it mattered.

Even the best Cowboys teams of all-time would have uneven and poor performances until late in the game. Then our heroes would pull out the result with a few fourth quarter scores.

This offense fought hard and 20 points and 339 yards, it’s not lousy.

But, it also isn’t good enough. Especially with a loss in the turnover battle because of the Luepke fumble that left seven points on the board there in a 2-point loss. Meanwhile, those third downs killed the Cowboys and Vic Fangio is still Vic Fangio.


Here is Miami on third down with their pass rush. Dallas tried nine pass plays on third down and had the Dolphins register pressure on eight of them! You don’t have to be an NFL expert to know that 89% pressure rates are a massive problem.

And we will look at that in the film study, but they got pressures with 4-man rushes, 5-man rushes, and their only 6-man rush. You simply cannot get your QB hit that many times on those crucial downs and expect to win.

Yet, they almost did!
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART



I thought he battled hard on Sunday and those throws late could have and should have been his best moments of 2023. Unfortunately, as football works, once Jason Sanders makes that kick, that touchdown to Brandin Cooks just becomes a footnote in a loss.

Dak played well when it mattered, but perhaps not well enough for the entire game. The bar is high, but it should be if your name is in MVP conversations. This isn’t about “trying hard,” this is about getting it done. Getting away from CeeDee Lamb too much is something McCarthy and Prescott will want to sort out. I know Jalen Ramsey is on the other side, but the Dolphins were sitting in zone all day.

Let me prove it. Below are the coverages used against the Cowboys on all first and second downs this season (third-down coverages muddy these numbers, so I took them out).

Above, you can see the seven highest zone defense games the Cowboys have played. They are 3-4 in those games. Also, see the six highest split-safety defenses (many are the same thing, of course) and they are 3-3 in those games. Now, look at the last month.

The schedule makers have put a lot of 2-high defenses on the Cowboys schedule. You can even see that the Eagles adjusted from their first game to the second to try to slow down the Dallas onslaught. We obviously would be speculating about Matt Patricia’s influence, but this is a smart league. They want you to do things you don’t like to do.

Detroit is a heavy-man and single-high team, so it will be interesting to see what they decide to do. Regardless, this is what defense are doing to shove down scoring and big plays round the league. This is why Dallas needed a change in their offense. But, this is also the test to see how much progress they have made.

FILM STUDY

Ok, I grabbed 12 plays from Sunday and I could have grabbed 40. But, let’s stick to the highlights and lowlights. Here we go:

1Q - 8:06 - 2nd and 1 - MIA 2 - T.Pollard left end to MIA 1 for 1 yard (D.Elliott).
This one has to be a touchdown. In fact, when the Cowboys replace Tony Pollard next spring, this will be the play that will motivate them to do it. Dak sets a nice option pitch and he has a 20-yard sprint to the pylon against a safety. He has a step on him and still tries to turn it inside. Maybe he thought it was no big deal at the time, but how you don’t sprint to the pylon and then dive to break the plane is beyond me. Heck of a job by Miami and great hustle, but this isn’t good work by Pollard.

1Q - 7:22 - 1st and Goal - Miami 1 - D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 2, RECOVERED by MIA-B.Jones at MIA 2.
Next play. Now, look, I really like Hunter Luepke but this hand-off was perfect. I couldn’t believe some people were trying to blame Dak Prescott for this.

Actually, yes I could. Because he gets blamed for just about everything with the Cowboys these days.

But, folks, this is an inexperienced player doing what inexperienced players do. It is blocked, it is a touchdown, and the ball hit the ground. Sometimes, to quote the noted wise-man Josh Howard, “you can’t control what the ball do.”

But, this feels ominous and the Cowboys were chasing this moment the rest of the day and never actually caught it. Rough scene all around. This is why this simple exchange is practiced so many times.

1Q - 2:50 - 1st and 10 - DAL 25 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb to DAL 47 for 22 yards (K.Kohou).
Second drive, first play. Dolphins actually open the game with a little man coverage and CeeDee terrified them so bad that they immediately stopped. But, this is man coverage and he abuses the slot 4-Kader Kohou and gets a quick 22 yards.

1Q - 1:41 - 2nd and 6 - MIA 49 - D.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is not man, but Kohou is still dispatched across from Lamb in a Cover 3. DeShon Elliott will attempt to provide vertical coverage behind Kohou, but the same basic concept show why Lamb is forcing opponents into split-field coverages and zones. He is almost impossible to cover this season. What a player. Touchdown.

2Q - 8:26 - 3rd and 12 - DAL 18 - D.Prescott scrambles up the middle to DAL 20 for 2 yards (Z.Sieler).
Here is where the third down issues really bogged down the second and third quarters. Four-man rush here and the Dolphins in split-safety, Cover 6 (Quarter, quarter, half to the high side) and Lamb is wide open when Dowdle to the flat widens out the flat defender Jalen Ramsey. Easy for me to see it, but this is a big miss from Prescott on a 3rd down situation. It looks like he is reading the other side of the field, but Lamb is wide open and this should not have been this difficult.

2Q - 3:12 - 3rd and 6 - DAL 29 - D.Prescott sacked at DAL 27 for -2 yards (Z.Sieler).
Ok, this is what Vic Fangio does so well. He just ran a Cover 6 on third down, so I am sure the Cowboys have made adjustments. Well, now he is going to screw with you by backing that up with Cover 0 and a 6-man pressure. There are no safeties on this one as the deep man has a man (9-Turpin) underneath. Sometimes the defense fools you and Terence Steele let his man go, so Dak has a free-runner and no chance. This play doesn’t get off the ground because they sent more than you have to protect and Dallas was in empty with no real options. I also like Ramsey moving to Ferguson here as that is where Dak would like to go, but he has nothing. Then he tries to escape, but Andrew Van Ginkel has some wheels off that edge.

Nice win for Fangio.

3Q - 12:06 - 3rd and 9 - DAL 3 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to J.Ferguson [A.Van Ginkel].
Second half now and your first possession starts at the 1-yard line. Big fun. What will Miami do here? Cover 6 with just a 4-man pressure. They are not going to let you get comfortable and they are also going to roll coverage to Lamb. This one never has a chance as your protection is taking “L”s all over Biadasz losses on the stunt and so does Edoga.

Bless Pollard’s heart, but he is just getting in the way back there. The Cowboys are definitely going to draft a RB next year. You watch.

4Q - 12:40 - 3rd and 3 - MIA 15 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to R.Dowdle [B.Chubb].
Fourth Quarter and now things are turning, but this play will make you crazy. This is 3rd and 3 and the Dolphins are back in Cover 4 (split safety coverage and count on their pass rush to get home). Jake Ferguson is wide-arce open in the back of the end zone and this is a touchdown 95% of the time. But, this time, Dallas doesn’t get it protected and it looks like the dreaded mental bust. Let’s look from the back.

So, Edoga short circuits here. There is no universe where he is to leave Bradley Chubb because the slide is still 3 vs 3. Tyler Smith will always have 51-Long on a LB blitz. The Dolphins certainly deserve some credit for. Van Ginkel is taking Dowdle and so you basically end up (at the 0:10 mark of the video) with four blockers on two rushers.
That leaves Chubb – one of the best and most athletic edges in the sport unblocked versus Dak. Dak cannot out-run him and he sure cannot wait for Ferguson to run 15 yards. There is no time and down two scores you cannot just YOLO that throw and hope for the best. If Edoga stays put, this is a touchdown. There is no doubt. He does not and it is a field goal.

Last drive, down 19-13. Touchdown or bust.

4Q - 4:23 - 4th and 4 - MIA 4 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to K.Turpin.
PENALTY on MIA-D.Elliott, Defensive Pass Interference, 3 yards, enforced at MIA 4 - No Play. X18 Penalty on MIA-X.Howard, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The safety will not allow Lamb anything, so Dak has to go to the 2v2 side with Turpin and Gallup and they both pick up penalties, so a fresh set of downs. Proper read and proper result.

4Q - 4:19 - 1st and Goal - MIA 1 - D.Prescott sacked at MIA 8 for -7 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Chubb).
Here is the other Edoga bust. I show you this angle to see that two guys are completely wide open. Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot are both open and the play is a very good one. I do take issue with the claim that you should just pound it in, but perhaps I am stubborn. I simply don’t know what play-call would be better than one where two guys are wide open.
Now, the problem is below.
Again, Edoga appears to be helping Tyler Smith on 92-Sieler. Why? And why is Chubb on Prescott again, untouched? Chuma, my man, what is happening here? Again, everyone throws furniture and blames the QB and Coach, but guys, this is a touchdown. Does he think he is playing left guard? These are professionals.
4Q - 3:38 - 2nd and Goal - MIA 8 - D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to C.Lamb (X.Howard).
And then, in a heroic moment of pulling a loss from the fire, Dak puts two dimes where they need to be. This one, is thwarted by Baylor’s Xavien Howard as he pushes Lamb’s feet out at the last moment.

4Q - 3:32 - 3rd and Goal - MIA 8 - D.Prescott pass short left to B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Van Ginkel].
But not this one. This one, on 3rd-and-goal, is Dak Prescott standing tall and making a fantastic throw where the reliable Brandin Cooks reels it in. Brilliant stuff, especially because Dak had to take another shot from protection breaking down below.
Van Ginkel again loses Steele with a spin, but Prescott got the ball off in time. The pass protection has been pretty decent this year, but this game was not impressive at all. It certainly didn’t help the cause on Sunday, but this touchdown put the Cowboys up 20-19 and they would stay there until the final play of the game.
Which we will visit about tomorrow.
 

Chocolate Lab

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And I stick by it. When I played, it was the QB's job to put the ball in the pocket, not the RB's job to adjust to where the QB put the ball. It's hard to tell if that happened.

I've seen the theory that maybe Luepke missed the call. Maybe he somehow thought it was a play action and that's why he kept running like he still had the ball. If that happened, it's his fault.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I'd bet Leupke thought it was a PA pass. Nothing else makes sense. Like he didn't even try to grab it.
That's what it looks like to me as well. Maybe it was some sort of check and he thought Dak did one way and Dak did another. The guy has barely played offense, I wouldn't be shocked by a fuckup like that. It just doesn't look normal. Otherwise you'd think he would immediately be going for the ball when he didn't get the handoff.
 
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