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Decoding McCarthy, Week 14 – NFL MVP Season?
After a big victory over Philly, the Cowboys have put themselves in a great position.
BOB STURM
DEC 12, 2023
The Dallas Cowboys offense is on a tremendous roll and this homestand has done nothing to slow it down. They are clicking on all cylinders in a way that we have seldom seen. After another fireworks show from the offense where they scored 33, rolled up 394 yard, seldom were stopped, and still did not look like they played their best vs the Philadelphia Eagles demonstrates what we are dealing with right now.
We are seeing an offense that is good at everything they do.
Now, I know people get nervous when we talk about high accolades as it pertains to the Cowboys and their offense. I can already see the responses where we are told to wait until the playoffs and “get back to you” on whether this will translate into a trophy. But, here are the latest numbers that are up to date:
They rank at the very top or darn close in nearly everything. They are above league average in everything. They are making this thing look easy and the NFL is not an easy league – just ask almost everyone.
To be this good on offense, you have to have a marrying of solid scheme and excellent personnel. We are beginning to think they have finally struck this balance well. Through 13 games, they appear to have hit a stride we have seldom seen.
The quickest way to explain this would be the obvious: they are getting an MVP-caliber year from their QB1. Dak Prescott has leveled up. There is simply no denying it (although I am sure the confirmation of priors will lead us to familiar territories).
I am happy to raise my hand to take accountability for my strongly-worded paragraph in the Morning After their crushing defeat at San Francisco in Week 5:
But, let’s not forget the last few words of that early-October phrasing:
“based on what we see in the remainder of this season.”
That right there was always my view and not some premise of launching him into the sun or throwing him to waivers. I have believed in this QB long before Mike McCarthy was hired, so I had no plans on bouncing after two consecutive 12-win seasons (soon to be three). But, we needed to see a response. A big one. And you may be holding out until January, but I am happy to report that since the Chargers game in Week 6 (the day of Game 2 of the ALCS in Houston, by the way), the Cowboys QB has been fantastic every week.
Below the blue line is his response. It is has been incredible and a real credit to his maturation process.
It is a sign that we have reached the point of his career where his mind has been educated about what defenses are trying to do against him and he has the answers to the test. We remember Tony Romo arriving here in 2014, but almost instantly having his body betray him. His intersection was about one season of peak mind and body. It is possible Dak, who just turned 30, could have many more seasons here. That is the most exciting part about what we are seeing right now.
I realize I might not be breaking down this Philadelphia game as much as I am writing about Dak right now, but allow me this latitude, if you don’t mind.
A few years ago, I became a convert of the PFF terms BTT (Big-time throws) and TWP (turnover-worthy plays) and moved away from the somewhat lazy QB/INT ratios. When the push pass still counts as a touchdown pass and a interception that is 100% on the receiver still counts as a pick on the QB’s ledger, we needed better.
So, from that piece in 2021 at my old place, here was the definition of BTT and TWP:
In 2023, Dak Prescott currently has a career high in BTT’s and a career low in TWPs.
But, wait, it gets even better.
Dak Prescott leads the NFL in 2023 in most Big Time Throws with 32.
Dak Prescott leads the NFL in 2023 in fewest Turnover Worthy Plays with 8.
I swear, the only people who have ever done this sort of thing win MVPs. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady have all done this sort of magic, but now Dak Prescott is doing it.
If you are curious, amongst those with their names in the 2023 MVP mix:
Dak Prescott: 32 BTT/8 TWP
Jalen Hurts: 25/12
Brock Purdy: 23/15
Lamar Jackson: 19/14
Patrick Mahomes: 21/15
So, yes, we still need to see this 2023 play out and he needs to keep up the good work. But this week was the first time where I really thought that he might actually become the first Dallas Cowboys QB to ever win the NFL MVP if he can win two of his next three high-profile games coming up against playoff teams.
Incredible turnaround. And, yes, it has been enough to realize that we should probably zoom past the off-ramp and hit the gas.
Ok, back to the big Sunday Night win vs Philadelphia. Let’s get through some data and some tape:
The drive chart tells quite a story. The Cowboys were able to score 24 points on their first four drives with the best field position being their own 25-yard line. It doesn’t matter. In that first half, they put up 42 plays and 247 yards and were 3-for-3 in the red zone.
People want to act like the Eagles turnovers made things easy on Dallas, but as you can see, the turnovers had very little to do with the 33 points scored. Dallas took the ball on their own end of the field each time and only had two unsuccessful drives the entire game – both to start the 3rd Quarter. They are a force right now and the Eagles had no chance to slow it down.
Again, notice all the green. If teams have an idea how to slow down this train, they are saving it for a day in the future. I know all roads lead to San Francisco, but this Cowboys offense is a different animal right now. The way they are proving they can even run the ball when they want is potentially changing things around. Because as we have seen all season – and for most of Prescott’s career – they already have had third downs figured out.
NEXT GEN - DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
The variance in depth and direction continues. The Cowboys still attack the sidelines, but now the deep middle is frequent where Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks are opening things up.
Soon, I need to look at the season long trends with personnel groupings. For whatever reason, the Cowboys multiple tight end groupings have not performed well. The good news is that 11 personnel is rising to the top of the NFL, but I know they didn’t invest in all these young tight ends to never have two on at the same time. They just can’t get near their goals there over large samples.
FILM STUDY
Ok, in today’s film room, let’s hit on 3 things.
1Q - 13:42 - 3rd and 1 - DAL 34 - Turpin right end pushed ob at Phil 44 for 22 yards.
This continues to show how Dallas game plans. First, they are in empty for this run. You are setting an expectation for the defense and then crossing them up on third and short. Then, we have pre-snap motion. The design here is excellent and even though you needed one, he almost breaks this for a touchdown because Turpin has some serious wheels. Watch 78-Steele, 70-Martin, and 63-Biadasz out on the run. Then Jalen Tolbert, Michael Gallup, and Tony Pollard are all doing work themselves. This set a real tone on this first drive and is part of the pre-game script.
1Q - 13:07 - 1st and 10 - PHI 44 - Pollard right guard to PHI 33 for 11 yards.
Love this run so much. Maybe my favorite run of the night. Cowboys run DUO right at Philadelphia and takes the physicality right at them. 11 personnel, under center, here comes a big run and Pollard knives in there wonderfully. Powerful job by all. It sets a tremendous tone.
1Q - 11:47 - 2nd and 8 - PHI 31 - Dowdle left guard to PHI 24 for 7 yards
Two plays later, here comes Rico Dowdle. The play is to follow 73-Tyler Smith on a pull to the right, but 93-Milton Williams cuts it off. That leaves Dowdle to adjust in mid-stride and to alter his path right through the LB 52-Cunningham and back in for a great gain. Physical play from the Cowboys running game in the first drive.
1Q - 10:09 - 3rd and 2 - PHI 13 - Prescott pass short left to C. Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is beautiful. Put it in slow motion and watch the stripe on Prescott’s helmet as he goes through his reads. Then watch him navigate the pocket and keep his eyes up. Then, watch him leave the pocket and find Lamb and throw on the run to hit him in stride. This, my friends, is a man who is feeling it all. He is playing great football.
Now, to Jake Ferguson. There are few emerging pieces who seem to be making a difference quite like the second-year tight end.
2Q - 11:56 - 2nd and 7 - DAL 28 - Prescott deep middle to Ferguson to PHI 45 for 27 yards.
Here is the Cowboys attacking offense. 11 personnel and 4 verts with pre-snap motion. When you see Cover 2, you know that Ferguson down the seam is there all day once he clears the linebackers and we also know that this is Dak’s favorite throw. He puts it right on Ferguson in stride and now 87 is looking for something to put a shoulder on and finds 32-Reed Blankenship who is playing his last snap of the game. This is tremendous play from the Cowboys young seam threat. I am starting to think he is already better than Dalton Schultz.
3Q - 8:58 - 3rd and 6 - Prescott pass short middle to Ferguson to PHI 28 for 32 yards
From yesterday’s piece:
Lamb is definitely open, but the blitz coming from this side says Dak throws into the free blitzer’s side as his first read and made a great throw with Ferguson. But, yes, if he had time to scan the field, he would have chosen Lamb. Philadelphia was desperate here, but should definitely not be trying Cover 0 with their cover guys at all.
4Q - 12:02 - Prescott short to Ferguson to PHI 34 for 8 yards.
And lastly, we need to show you this one, right? 22-Kelee Ringo is learning that cutting NFL TE’s is no way to live. Ferguson is ready for him and goes right over. He also gets up and tells his opponent's about what just happened at a very high level. This dude is a player.
Finally, let’s look at Dak’s three Big Time Throws from Sunday and get out of here.
2Q - 0:37 - 2nd and 6 - PHI 31 - Prescott deep right to Cooks to PHI 1 for 30 yards.
You have to love this concept. Eagles roll into Cover 3 and when you see middle field closed (MFC), then Dak knows that the deep safety is in a massive conflict. Lamb in the slot will run an over right in front of 31-Byard (that deep safety), so what is Byard going to do? Of course, he is going to step to Lamb. The moment he shifts his weight in that direction, Dak knows he has Cooks on the deep post vs 24-Bradberry with inside leverage. This is high level passing concept stuff that is a perfect MFC beater. Well done.
3Q - 12:58 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 38 - Prescott pass incomplete deep left to Lamb (S Brown).
This is Dak looking for a kill shot and sees Lamb vs Bradberry. Lucky for the Eagles, this is Cover 4, so Bradberry has some help in the safety to this side, 21-Brown. Lamb does the double-move and absolutely blows by Bradberry. Brown gets over and distracts Lamb enough to cause a drop, but Prescott put the throw perfectly on him and it was an inch from 31-6 early in the third quarter. Perfect throw.
4Q - 5:13 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 17 - Prescott deep left to Gallup ran ob at PHI 44 for 39 yards.
Finally, another signature moment late in the game. Its third-and-5 from your own 17-yard line, but you are up big. Here, because he can, Dak decides to keep throwing and finds Michael Gallup deep in a “drop-it-in-the-bucket” throw vs Ringo. Again, ball placement, timing, and confidence is all at maximum levels and he gets another third down conversion and Gallup is starting to feel good again.
There you have it. The defense will be fun tomorrow, too. Love to hear your thoughts below on this offensive roll as they head to Buffalo next.
After a big victory over Philly, the Cowboys have put themselves in a great position.
BOB STURM
DEC 12, 2023
The Dallas Cowboys offense is on a tremendous roll and this homestand has done nothing to slow it down. They are clicking on all cylinders in a way that we have seldom seen. After another fireworks show from the offense where they scored 33, rolled up 394 yard, seldom were stopped, and still did not look like they played their best vs the Philadelphia Eagles demonstrates what we are dealing with right now.
We are seeing an offense that is good at everything they do.
Now, I know people get nervous when we talk about high accolades as it pertains to the Cowboys and their offense. I can already see the responses where we are told to wait until the playoffs and “get back to you” on whether this will translate into a trophy. But, here are the latest numbers that are up to date:
They rank at the very top or darn close in nearly everything. They are above league average in everything. They are making this thing look easy and the NFL is not an easy league – just ask almost everyone.
To be this good on offense, you have to have a marrying of solid scheme and excellent personnel. We are beginning to think they have finally struck this balance well. Through 13 games, they appear to have hit a stride we have seldom seen.
The quickest way to explain this would be the obvious: they are getting an MVP-caliber year from their QB1. Dak Prescott has leveled up. There is simply no denying it (although I am sure the confirmation of priors will lead us to familiar territories).
I am happy to raise my hand to take accountability for my strongly-worded paragraph in the Morning After their crushing defeat at San Francisco in Week 5:
Now, a few people have asked me to update them on how I feel about Prescott and where I am on this “off ramp” business, so that is a good place to start right now.
But, let’s not forget the last few words of that early-October phrasing:
“based on what we see in the remainder of this season.”
That right there was always my view and not some premise of launching him into the sun or throwing him to waivers. I have believed in this QB long before Mike McCarthy was hired, so I had no plans on bouncing after two consecutive 12-win seasons (soon to be three). But, we needed to see a response. A big one. And you may be holding out until January, but I am happy to report that since the Chargers game in Week 6 (the day of Game 2 of the ALCS in Houston, by the way), the Cowboys QB has been fantastic every week.
Below the blue line is his response. It is has been incredible and a real credit to his maturation process.
It is a sign that we have reached the point of his career where his mind has been educated about what defenses are trying to do against him and he has the answers to the test. We remember Tony Romo arriving here in 2014, but almost instantly having his body betray him. His intersection was about one season of peak mind and body. It is possible Dak, who just turned 30, could have many more seasons here. That is the most exciting part about what we are seeing right now.
I realize I might not be breaking down this Philadelphia game as much as I am writing about Dak right now, but allow me this latitude, if you don’t mind.
A few years ago, I became a convert of the PFF terms BTT (Big-time throws) and TWP (turnover-worthy plays) and moved away from the somewhat lazy QB/INT ratios. When the push pass still counts as a touchdown pass and a interception that is 100% on the receiver still counts as a pick on the QB’s ledger, we needed better.
So, from that piece in 2021 at my old place, here was the definition of BTT and TWP:
Now, why am I bringing this up in December of 2023? I bet you can guess.
In 2023, Dak Prescott currently has a career high in BTT’s and a career low in TWPs.
But, wait, it gets even better.
Dak Prescott leads the NFL in 2023 in most Big Time Throws with 32.
Dak Prescott leads the NFL in 2023 in fewest Turnover Worthy Plays with 8.
I swear, the only people who have ever done this sort of thing win MVPs. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady have all done this sort of magic, but now Dak Prescott is doing it.
If you are curious, amongst those with their names in the 2023 MVP mix:
Dak Prescott: 32 BTT/8 TWP
Jalen Hurts: 25/12
Brock Purdy: 23/15
Lamar Jackson: 19/14
Patrick Mahomes: 21/15
So, yes, we still need to see this 2023 play out and he needs to keep up the good work. But this week was the first time where I really thought that he might actually become the first Dallas Cowboys QB to ever win the NFL MVP if he can win two of his next three high-profile games coming up against playoff teams.
Incredible turnaround. And, yes, it has been enough to realize that we should probably zoom past the off-ramp and hit the gas.
Ok, back to the big Sunday Night win vs Philadelphia. Let’s get through some data and some tape:
The drive chart tells quite a story. The Cowboys were able to score 24 points on their first four drives with the best field position being their own 25-yard line. It doesn’t matter. In that first half, they put up 42 plays and 247 yards and were 3-for-3 in the red zone.
People want to act like the Eagles turnovers made things easy on Dallas, but as you can see, the turnovers had very little to do with the 33 points scored. Dallas took the ball on their own end of the field each time and only had two unsuccessful drives the entire game – both to start the 3rd Quarter. They are a force right now and the Eagles had no chance to slow it down.
Again, notice all the green. If teams have an idea how to slow down this train, they are saving it for a day in the future. I know all roads lead to San Francisco, but this Cowboys offense is a different animal right now. The way they are proving they can even run the ball when they want is potentially changing things around. Because as we have seen all season – and for most of Prescott’s career – they already have had third downs figured out.
NEXT GEN - DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
The variance in depth and direction continues. The Cowboys still attack the sidelines, but now the deep middle is frequent where Jake Ferguson and Brandin Cooks are opening things up.
Soon, I need to look at the season long trends with personnel groupings. For whatever reason, the Cowboys multiple tight end groupings have not performed well. The good news is that 11 personnel is rising to the top of the NFL, but I know they didn’t invest in all these young tight ends to never have two on at the same time. They just can’t get near their goals there over large samples.
FILM STUDY
Ok, in today’s film room, let’s hit on 3 things.
- The Cowboys early run game that established dominance against a defense that is running on fumes.
- Jake Ferguson’s breakout season.
- Dak Prescott’s big time throws from Sunday Night.
1Q - 13:42 - 3rd and 1 - DAL 34 - Turpin right end pushed ob at Phil 44 for 22 yards.
This continues to show how Dallas game plans. First, they are in empty for this run. You are setting an expectation for the defense and then crossing them up on third and short. Then, we have pre-snap motion. The design here is excellent and even though you needed one, he almost breaks this for a touchdown because Turpin has some serious wheels. Watch 78-Steele, 70-Martin, and 63-Biadasz out on the run. Then Jalen Tolbert, Michael Gallup, and Tony Pollard are all doing work themselves. This set a real tone on this first drive and is part of the pre-game script.
1Q - 13:07 - 1st and 10 - PHI 44 - Pollard right guard to PHI 33 for 11 yards.
Love this run so much. Maybe my favorite run of the night. Cowboys run DUO right at Philadelphia and takes the physicality right at them. 11 personnel, under center, here comes a big run and Pollard knives in there wonderfully. Powerful job by all. It sets a tremendous tone.
1Q - 11:47 - 2nd and 8 - PHI 31 - Dowdle left guard to PHI 24 for 7 yards
Two plays later, here comes Rico Dowdle. The play is to follow 73-Tyler Smith on a pull to the right, but 93-Milton Williams cuts it off. That leaves Dowdle to adjust in mid-stride and to alter his path right through the LB 52-Cunningham and back in for a great gain. Physical play from the Cowboys running game in the first drive.
1Q - 10:09 - 3rd and 2 - PHI 13 - Prescott pass short left to C. Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This is beautiful. Put it in slow motion and watch the stripe on Prescott’s helmet as he goes through his reads. Then watch him navigate the pocket and keep his eyes up. Then, watch him leave the pocket and find Lamb and throw on the run to hit him in stride. This, my friends, is a man who is feeling it all. He is playing great football.
Now, to Jake Ferguson. There are few emerging pieces who seem to be making a difference quite like the second-year tight end.
2Q - 11:56 - 2nd and 7 - DAL 28 - Prescott deep middle to Ferguson to PHI 45 for 27 yards.
Here is the Cowboys attacking offense. 11 personnel and 4 verts with pre-snap motion. When you see Cover 2, you know that Ferguson down the seam is there all day once he clears the linebackers and we also know that this is Dak’s favorite throw. He puts it right on Ferguson in stride and now 87 is looking for something to put a shoulder on and finds 32-Reed Blankenship who is playing his last snap of the game. This is tremendous play from the Cowboys young seam threat. I am starting to think he is already better than Dalton Schultz.
3Q - 8:58 - 3rd and 6 - Prescott pass short middle to Ferguson to PHI 28 for 32 yards
From yesterday’s piece:
Here is the sideline view of the same play. Robb asked me to add it in the comment section so here you go. He said it looks like Lamb is open, too.
Lamb is definitely open, but the blitz coming from this side says Dak throws into the free blitzer’s side as his first read and made a great throw with Ferguson. But, yes, if he had time to scan the field, he would have chosen Lamb. Philadelphia was desperate here, but should definitely not be trying Cover 0 with their cover guys at all.
4Q - 12:02 - Prescott short to Ferguson to PHI 34 for 8 yards.
And lastly, we need to show you this one, right? 22-Kelee Ringo is learning that cutting NFL TE’s is no way to live. Ferguson is ready for him and goes right over. He also gets up and tells his opponent's about what just happened at a very high level. This dude is a player.
Finally, let’s look at Dak’s three Big Time Throws from Sunday and get out of here.
2Q - 0:37 - 2nd and 6 - PHI 31 - Prescott deep right to Cooks to PHI 1 for 30 yards.
You have to love this concept. Eagles roll into Cover 3 and when you see middle field closed (MFC), then Dak knows that the deep safety is in a massive conflict. Lamb in the slot will run an over right in front of 31-Byard (that deep safety), so what is Byard going to do? Of course, he is going to step to Lamb. The moment he shifts his weight in that direction, Dak knows he has Cooks on the deep post vs 24-Bradberry with inside leverage. This is high level passing concept stuff that is a perfect MFC beater. Well done.
3Q - 12:58 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 38 - Prescott pass incomplete deep left to Lamb (S Brown).
This is Dak looking for a kill shot and sees Lamb vs Bradberry. Lucky for the Eagles, this is Cover 4, so Bradberry has some help in the safety to this side, 21-Brown. Lamb does the double-move and absolutely blows by Bradberry. Brown gets over and distracts Lamb enough to cause a drop, but Prescott put the throw perfectly on him and it was an inch from 31-6 early in the third quarter. Perfect throw.
4Q - 5:13 - 3rd and 5 - DAL 17 - Prescott deep left to Gallup ran ob at PHI 44 for 39 yards.
Finally, another signature moment late in the game. Its third-and-5 from your own 17-yard line, but you are up big. Here, because he can, Dak decides to keep throwing and finds Michael Gallup deep in a “drop-it-in-the-bucket” throw vs Ringo. Again, ball placement, timing, and confidence is all at maximum levels and he gets another third down conversion and Gallup is starting to feel good again.
There you have it. The defense will be fun tomorrow, too. Love to hear your thoughts below on this offensive roll as they head to Buffalo next.