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Decoding McCarthy, Week 13 - Fireworks Continue
The Cowboys offense continues its surge and sprints into December with confidence.
BOB STURM
DEC 4, 2023
Dallas and their offensive build in 2023 have done a wonderful job growing this season. We have tried to make sure that the readers of this space were aware of the developments incrementally, but perhaps it would be best if we could show you with results.
After another 41-point performance where the offense produced points on eight of their nine actual drives on Thursday – the one exception being the CeeDee Lamb fourth-down drop – the end product from this offense has worked its way up the statistical ladder with impressive ease.
Here is our “big 10 (the first two columns are the same stat for offensive point scored) metrics” for the full season of 2023 to date:
Now, here is where we need to have a divide. So, this is that same chart for Weeks 1-5. We know these as “until they left San Francisco”, but could also be termed with getting your offensive line back or deciding that everything should go through CeeDee Lamb or letting Dak cook.
Weeks 1-5:
And since Week 6:
Pretty impressive, right? Obviously, three stats are flat or slightly backwards. Rushing per game, 3rd downs (the stat has dropped but the league rank has gone up), and sacks. I believe they are all products of the design that we keep hammering here every week in this series.
They have reduced the designed runs to make sure they are leaning into what their primary objective is. The third downs are still excellent by every measure. The sack percentage has become mostly trying to walk the fine line of giving receivers more time to uncover and occasionally Dak will allow it to go a little too long and get caught. He took four on Thursday, but those were the first sacks he has had since Philadelphia in Week 9. To go a month between sacks is plenty impressive.
Dallas is a machine on offense. They are averaging over a touchdown per quarter and on Thursday had three quarters of double-digit points which included a fourth quarter of 14 to win the game. And they did all of this without explosives where they produced just two 20-plus yard plays. They average about triple that.
Of course, what we saw on Thursday was not like most of these games from this stretch. This is a game where the Cowboys needed every point to ward off a challenge from a desperate team playing its best. Against, Seattle, they needed to produce those points because they were down 8 points when they first touched the ball in the fourth quarter.
And that is when we saw some excellent work from the Cowboys on three consecutive drives. We saw Dak Prescott nearly in the zone, firing a beautiful dart into a tiny window downfield that Lamb surely catches if they try it again. It was a 3rd-and-12 play where Kirk Herbstreit seemed to think it was far too risky. I submit the QB put it in exactly the perfect spot that you would expect from a guy having a MVP-caliber season.
Tell me this wasn’t one of the best throws of his career.
Slow it down if you have to, but that is 3rd and 12 in the fourth quarter of a game they are trailing by 8. An interception there is deadly, but he is seeing the field so well and is so confident in Lamb that he put it right on his face-mask from a tremendous distance. Don’t tell me he isn’t accurate. That is a world-class seed from any QB in this league.
Regardless, they settle for a field goal and then needed to put two more drives up there. They did it. And Dak was flexing the whole time. He is feeling it heading into yet another big matchup with the Eagles on Sunday Night.
Now, I should explain the red ink this week – which represents those categories that need improvement.
First, on 20-plus yard plays. The “explosive play” statistic is actually one that gets a lot of conversation in the NFL. Why? Because 20 yards is arbitrary and the one I like. In some corners of the NFL, they use 12-plus for runs and 16-plus for receptions. Troy Aikman likes 10-plus runs and 20-plus passes, so I should probably just give in to my boss. I will tell you that I am a strong believer that a yard is a yard, so I don’t really believe in separating a run from a catch as if those running yards are actually worth more. They aren’t, in my estimation. They are both 36 inches in length.
I say all of that to say that 20-plus is not a binding gospel. So, when I say they only had two such plays Thursday, it is factually true. But, look at how many were in that basic range:
So, sure. they didn’t totally hit that magic number, but they had seven more between 15 and 20 yard.
Then to the red “Red Zone TD%” numbers where Dallas was 4 of 8. The league average in the red zone is just below 55%, so 50% is not horrendous. At the same time, Dallas has the personnel to get up significantly higher as their are nine teams over 60% this year and they should be in that group. Heck, Miami is at 75%. On the other hand, four red zone touchdowns is the 2nd highest total of the season, so it wasn’t a bad night. They just left meat on the bone, despite also scoring 41 points. In other words, they are a very impressive group right now.
NEXT GEN - DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
It was another weekly fireworks show from Prescott. They didn’t make us a pretty one this week, so here is the raw data. Green means complete, white is incomplete, blue are touchdowns, and red don’t exist on this chart but would be interceptions.
It required a lot of patience as Seattle played its normal zones. They are very solid at covering for each-other in the San Francisco sort of way defensively. I like what they do out there, as they also play with tremendous effort and physical play. But you may remember how certain zone defenses would befuddle the Cowboys offenses. Is this yet another sign that they have solutions this year?
Yes, it will require more patience and precision and fewer huge plays, but those numbers are exciting. We know what Dak does against man, so one small sample does not worry anyone, but look at the production vs a stingy zone defense.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
One last item above. Here are the production numbers from each personnel grouping. I wanted to show you something that I found interesting. Below, I sorted it all out by just the rushing plays. There you will see that they are running the ball much better in 11 personnel than with multiple tight ends. In fact, if you simply sort it as 10 or 11 personnel, they ran 25 times for 126 yards – over 5 yards per carry. Very good stuff. But, that means the other 9 carries in “heavy” groupings (2 more more TE’s or FB) they had 10 yards total.
And then passing went the other way. Passing out of 11 personnel was at just 5.5 per play, but when you look at the “heavy” options, they were 13 pass plays for 123 yards or 9.5 per play.
So, basically run from pass packages and pass from run packages. We should keep an eye on that, but this is generally where we can find success. Keep the defense way off balance.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 12:52 - 3rd and 2 - SEA 42 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks to SEA 23 for 19 yards
I always love short motion which will mess up a zone coverage. Cooks just shifts to the inside of Lamb and becomes the number 2 to the left against a Single-High Cover 3. We attack single high in that gap between the linebackers and the safety and if we can get to the spot vacated by the opposite corner. This leaves a giant hole for Cooks to navigate and a lovely conversion.
1Q - 11:04 - 3rd and 10 - SEA 12 - D.Prescott pass short left to K.Turpin to SEA 2 for 10 yards
Here, they line up 2x2 and things appear rather stagnant. Prescott tries to buy time and there is very little here. Sometimes you don’t get the look you are expecting and it appears you called the wrong play for the situation. Finally, he fires a dart to Turpin at the sticks and they convert, but that one wasn’t easy at all. It all looked out of sorts.
1Q - 9:50 - 3rd and Goal - SEA 3 - D.Prescott sacked at SEA 12 for -9 yards (J.Brooks).
Same drive and third-and-goal. Really tight splits and Seattle now sends Jordyn Brooks on a blitz. Tony Pollard doesn’t get him blocked – tough assignment there – and therefore Dak cannot buy an extra moment because Brandin Cooks is about to be wide open on the over route to the left corner. One more tick and this is a touchdown, but that is red zone offense for you. One mistake and you are in trouble.
Same play, different view. Pollard drops his head a bit and Brooks is a 240-pound freight train. If he can stand him up with his best Emmitt Smith impression, this is a touchdown. Instead it is a sack and Dallas kicks a field goal to open the game.
2Q - 13:46 - 1st and 10 - SEA 36 - D.Prescott pass short right to T.Pollard to SEA 24 for 12 yards (B.Wagner; D.Witherspoon) [B.Mafe].
There were a couple plays on Thursday that would show you what Prescott has become as a QB. Comfortable in being “the guy” and making plays when things go wrong. Here, Tony Pollard has to pick up Jamal Adams and that doesn’t go great, but he gets him to the ground. But, Dak is going to use him as an outlet – as I am sure is the design in a clean situation – and Pollard does a great job of creating, too. To win big in this league, you have to be great “out of structure” and this would qualify.
3Q - 3:46 - 2nd and Goal - SEA 6 - T.Pollard right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Now, the designed runs still are a part of the offense, but they are far more outside the tackles. Here in the red zone, it is a solution to get the center and right guard out in space and if Steele and Ferguson can get the down blocks, this can be a touchdown. Pollard really navigates this tight space well and gets it over the line. Very nice scheme and nicer execution.
4Q - 13:38 - 1st and 10 - SEA 34 - D.Prescott pass deep right to J.Tolbert ran ob at SEA 17 for 17 yards.
12 Personnel with motion to Tolbert. Not a good pass set from Steele as Darrell Taylor blows right by him (as Haason Reddick jots down notes) and has Dak dead to rights. But, Prescott shakes him off like he is Cam Newton and hits an open Jalen Tolbert on the sideline for 17. Wow. This is one of those plays that you don’t want to see again because bad things happen, but look at how Dak’s eyes are up and he is looking to hurt you after escaping. Best football of his career.
4Q - 4:48 - 1st and 10 - SEA 15 - D.Prescott left end pushed ob at SEA 7 for 8 yards (T.Woolen).
I really just want to show you Dak flexing at the end of this run. And even that might not be worth highlighting except to show you that he has now taken everything personally and wants the opponents to know that he is not at all worried about these tests. Again, when a player levels up, it is fun to see him acknowledge it. I think we are seeing this here.
Finally, one play later after a delay of game…
4Q - 4:41 - 2nd and 7 - SEA 12 - D.Prescott pass short left to J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Here are mirrored concepts where the outside receivers are running slant/in routes to take the Cover 3 corners with them and that leaves the two slot tight ends squared up against flat defenders and you will run out and ups against both of them. Dak probably sees that 21-Witherspoon is up against Schoonmaker so he opts for 33-Adams against Ferguson. I know that I would make that choice. Then, once Ferguson has him bodied at the goal-line, Dak leads him to the inside and Ferguson just snags it beautifully with his impressive hands. Touchdown and Dallas is now up 38-35 after the 2-point conversion. What a drive from Prescott and a potential perception-turning moment in his career.
We could have a long conversation about the time management blunders in the final drive from. But we covered that in the Morning After back on Friday, so we will let it slide today.
They now get Philadelphia at home after the Eagles have played a lot of tough games in a row. They will certainly be up for it, but I suspect that Dallas will want to get into a physical war so that with the extra rest and a battered Eagles team, you wear them down over four quarters. This is not a playoff game, but I would certainly like them to treat it like one.
They have put themselves into a wonderful position now. Yes, they still won’t own the tiebreakers, but there is plenty of value in beating your biggest rival in front of all the football world to see.
I cannot wait.
The Cowboys offense continues its surge and sprints into December with confidence.
BOB STURM
DEC 4, 2023
Dallas and their offensive build in 2023 have done a wonderful job growing this season. We have tried to make sure that the readers of this space were aware of the developments incrementally, but perhaps it would be best if we could show you with results.
After another 41-point performance where the offense produced points on eight of their nine actual drives on Thursday – the one exception being the CeeDee Lamb fourth-down drop – the end product from this offense has worked its way up the statistical ladder with impressive ease.
Here is our “big 10 (the first two columns are the same stat for offensive point scored) metrics” for the full season of 2023 to date:
Now, here is where we need to have a divide. So, this is that same chart for Weeks 1-5. We know these as “until they left San Francisco”, but could also be termed with getting your offensive line back or deciding that everything should go through CeeDee Lamb or letting Dak cook.
Weeks 1-5:
And since Week 6:
Pretty impressive, right? Obviously, three stats are flat or slightly backwards. Rushing per game, 3rd downs (the stat has dropped but the league rank has gone up), and sacks. I believe they are all products of the design that we keep hammering here every week in this series.
They have reduced the designed runs to make sure they are leaning into what their primary objective is. The third downs are still excellent by every measure. The sack percentage has become mostly trying to walk the fine line of giving receivers more time to uncover and occasionally Dak will allow it to go a little too long and get caught. He took four on Thursday, but those were the first sacks he has had since Philadelphia in Week 9. To go a month between sacks is plenty impressive.
Dallas is a machine on offense. They are averaging over a touchdown per quarter and on Thursday had three quarters of double-digit points which included a fourth quarter of 14 to win the game. And they did all of this without explosives where they produced just two 20-plus yard plays. They average about triple that.
Of course, what we saw on Thursday was not like most of these games from this stretch. This is a game where the Cowboys needed every point to ward off a challenge from a desperate team playing its best. Against, Seattle, they needed to produce those points because they were down 8 points when they first touched the ball in the fourth quarter.
And that is when we saw some excellent work from the Cowboys on three consecutive drives. We saw Dak Prescott nearly in the zone, firing a beautiful dart into a tiny window downfield that Lamb surely catches if they try it again. It was a 3rd-and-12 play where Kirk Herbstreit seemed to think it was far too risky. I submit the QB put it in exactly the perfect spot that you would expect from a guy having a MVP-caliber season.
Tell me this wasn’t one of the best throws of his career.
Slow it down if you have to, but that is 3rd and 12 in the fourth quarter of a game they are trailing by 8. An interception there is deadly, but he is seeing the field so well and is so confident in Lamb that he put it right on his face-mask from a tremendous distance. Don’t tell me he isn’t accurate. That is a world-class seed from any QB in this league.
Regardless, they settle for a field goal and then needed to put two more drives up there. They did it. And Dak was flexing the whole time. He is feeling it heading into yet another big matchup with the Eagles on Sunday Night.
Now, I should explain the red ink this week – which represents those categories that need improvement.
First, on 20-plus yard plays. The “explosive play” statistic is actually one that gets a lot of conversation in the NFL. Why? Because 20 yards is arbitrary and the one I like. In some corners of the NFL, they use 12-plus for runs and 16-plus for receptions. Troy Aikman likes 10-plus runs and 20-plus passes, so I should probably just give in to my boss. I will tell you that I am a strong believer that a yard is a yard, so I don’t really believe in separating a run from a catch as if those running yards are actually worth more. They aren’t, in my estimation. They are both 36 inches in length.
I say all of that to say that 20-plus is not a binding gospel. So, when I say they only had two such plays Thursday, it is factually true. But, look at how many were in that basic range:
So, sure. they didn’t totally hit that magic number, but they had seven more between 15 and 20 yard.
Then to the red “Red Zone TD%” numbers where Dallas was 4 of 8. The league average in the red zone is just below 55%, so 50% is not horrendous. At the same time, Dallas has the personnel to get up significantly higher as their are nine teams over 60% this year and they should be in that group. Heck, Miami is at 75%. On the other hand, four red zone touchdowns is the 2nd highest total of the season, so it wasn’t a bad night. They just left meat on the bone, despite also scoring 41 points. In other words, they are a very impressive group right now.
NEXT GEN - DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART
It was another weekly fireworks show from Prescott. They didn’t make us a pretty one this week, so here is the raw data. Green means complete, white is incomplete, blue are touchdowns, and red don’t exist on this chart but would be interceptions.
It required a lot of patience as Seattle played its normal zones. They are very solid at covering for each-other in the San Francisco sort of way defensively. I like what they do out there, as they also play with tremendous effort and physical play. But you may remember how certain zone defenses would befuddle the Cowboys offenses. Is this yet another sign that they have solutions this year?
Yes, it will require more patience and precision and fewer huge plays, but those numbers are exciting. We know what Dak does against man, so one small sample does not worry anyone, but look at the production vs a stingy zone defense.
PERSONNEL GROUPINGS
One last item above. Here are the production numbers from each personnel grouping. I wanted to show you something that I found interesting. Below, I sorted it all out by just the rushing plays. There you will see that they are running the ball much better in 11 personnel than with multiple tight ends. In fact, if you simply sort it as 10 or 11 personnel, they ran 25 times for 126 yards – over 5 yards per carry. Very good stuff. But, that means the other 9 carries in “heavy” groupings (2 more more TE’s or FB) they had 10 yards total.
And then passing went the other way. Passing out of 11 personnel was at just 5.5 per play, but when you look at the “heavy” options, they were 13 pass plays for 123 yards or 9.5 per play.
So, basically run from pass packages and pass from run packages. We should keep an eye on that, but this is generally where we can find success. Keep the defense way off balance.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 12:52 - 3rd and 2 - SEA 42 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks to SEA 23 for 19 yards
I always love short motion which will mess up a zone coverage. Cooks just shifts to the inside of Lamb and becomes the number 2 to the left against a Single-High Cover 3. We attack single high in that gap between the linebackers and the safety and if we can get to the spot vacated by the opposite corner. This leaves a giant hole for Cooks to navigate and a lovely conversion.
1Q - 11:04 - 3rd and 10 - SEA 12 - D.Prescott pass short left to K.Turpin to SEA 2 for 10 yards
Here, they line up 2x2 and things appear rather stagnant. Prescott tries to buy time and there is very little here. Sometimes you don’t get the look you are expecting and it appears you called the wrong play for the situation. Finally, he fires a dart to Turpin at the sticks and they convert, but that one wasn’t easy at all. It all looked out of sorts.
1Q - 9:50 - 3rd and Goal - SEA 3 - D.Prescott sacked at SEA 12 for -9 yards (J.Brooks).
Same drive and third-and-goal. Really tight splits and Seattle now sends Jordyn Brooks on a blitz. Tony Pollard doesn’t get him blocked – tough assignment there – and therefore Dak cannot buy an extra moment because Brandin Cooks is about to be wide open on the over route to the left corner. One more tick and this is a touchdown, but that is red zone offense for you. One mistake and you are in trouble.
Same play, different view. Pollard drops his head a bit and Brooks is a 240-pound freight train. If he can stand him up with his best Emmitt Smith impression, this is a touchdown. Instead it is a sack and Dallas kicks a field goal to open the game.
2Q - 13:46 - 1st and 10 - SEA 36 - D.Prescott pass short right to T.Pollard to SEA 24 for 12 yards (B.Wagner; D.Witherspoon) [B.Mafe].
There were a couple plays on Thursday that would show you what Prescott has become as a QB. Comfortable in being “the guy” and making plays when things go wrong. Here, Tony Pollard has to pick up Jamal Adams and that doesn’t go great, but he gets him to the ground. But, Dak is going to use him as an outlet – as I am sure is the design in a clean situation – and Pollard does a great job of creating, too. To win big in this league, you have to be great “out of structure” and this would qualify.
3Q - 3:46 - 2nd and Goal - SEA 6 - T.Pollard right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Now, the designed runs still are a part of the offense, but they are far more outside the tackles. Here in the red zone, it is a solution to get the center and right guard out in space and if Steele and Ferguson can get the down blocks, this can be a touchdown. Pollard really navigates this tight space well and gets it over the line. Very nice scheme and nicer execution.
4Q - 13:38 - 1st and 10 - SEA 34 - D.Prescott pass deep right to J.Tolbert ran ob at SEA 17 for 17 yards.
12 Personnel with motion to Tolbert. Not a good pass set from Steele as Darrell Taylor blows right by him (as Haason Reddick jots down notes) and has Dak dead to rights. But, Prescott shakes him off like he is Cam Newton and hits an open Jalen Tolbert on the sideline for 17. Wow. This is one of those plays that you don’t want to see again because bad things happen, but look at how Dak’s eyes are up and he is looking to hurt you after escaping. Best football of his career.
4Q - 4:48 - 1st and 10 - SEA 15 - D.Prescott left end pushed ob at SEA 7 for 8 yards (T.Woolen).
I really just want to show you Dak flexing at the end of this run. And even that might not be worth highlighting except to show you that he has now taken everything personally and wants the opponents to know that he is not at all worried about these tests. Again, when a player levels up, it is fun to see him acknowledge it. I think we are seeing this here.
Finally, one play later after a delay of game…
4Q - 4:41 - 2nd and 7 - SEA 12 - D.Prescott pass short left to J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Here are mirrored concepts where the outside receivers are running slant/in routes to take the Cover 3 corners with them and that leaves the two slot tight ends squared up against flat defenders and you will run out and ups against both of them. Dak probably sees that 21-Witherspoon is up against Schoonmaker so he opts for 33-Adams against Ferguson. I know that I would make that choice. Then, once Ferguson has him bodied at the goal-line, Dak leads him to the inside and Ferguson just snags it beautifully with his impressive hands. Touchdown and Dallas is now up 38-35 after the 2-point conversion. What a drive from Prescott and a potential perception-turning moment in his career.
We could have a long conversation about the time management blunders in the final drive from. But we covered that in the Morning After back on Friday, so we will let it slide today.
They now get Philadelphia at home after the Eagles have played a lot of tough games in a row. They will certainly be up for it, but I suspect that Dallas will want to get into a physical war so that with the extra rest and a battered Eagles team, you wear them down over four quarters. This is not a playoff game, but I would certainly like them to treat it like one.
They have put themselves into a wonderful position now. Yes, they still won’t own the tiebreakers, but there is plenty of value in beating your biggest rival in front of all the football world to see.
I cannot wait.
