- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 120,189
By Bob Sturm Feb 27, 2020
Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, as has been our tradition since 2012, we will take a look at five of the key prospects at a given positional group. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from giving each player a couple of hours and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.
Today we begin sifting through 2020’s edge rushers by starting at the very top. And when you do start at the top, you quickly see that almost no position has been better evaluated in the last several years than this very spot.
Are we saying that pass-rushers are bust-proof? There is no way to reliably avoid catastrophic mistakes in the draft world. But if you look at the top edge rusher in each draft over the last decade or so, they usually deliver on their promises.
Since 2014, when Jadeveon Clowney went No. 1 overall to Houston, there have been seven different defensive ends taken in the top five picks of the draft. If you allow the 2019 players to have a bit more time in the oven (not that Nick Bosa needs it), we can safely say that almost every single top prospect edge rusher has delivered.
Clowney started slow but has been very good over the last several years and would be judged a star player by any measure.
Joey Bosa is one of the very best players in the sport already.
Myles Garrett has 30.5 sacks in 37 games and is out of this world – exactly what Cleveland dreamed he would be (until he clubbed Mason Rudolph with a helmet, of course).
Bradley Chubb was sensational as a rookie and appears to be a star in the making.
And, yes, Nick Bosa is Nick Bosa.
Leonard Williams and Solomon Thomas both have been disappointments, but neither was actually an edge rusher. Both were DEs in a 3-4 or DT’s in a 4-3. And DeForest Buckner is a beast by any and all measures.
TOP 10 DEFENSIVE END PICKS SINCE 2014
| Year | Rnd | Pick | Player | Pos | DrAge | Tm | PB | St | G | Int | Sk | College/Univ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | 1 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | 21 | HOU | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 32 | South Carolina |
| 2015 | 1 | 6 | Leonard Williams | DE | 21 | NYJ | 1 | 4 | 79 | 1 | 17.5 | USC |
| 2016 | 1 | 3 | Joey Bosa | DE | 21 | SDG | 2 | 3 | 51 | 40 | Ohio St. | |
| 2016 | 1 | 7 | DeForest Buckner | DE | 22 | SFO | 1 | 4 | 63 | 28.5 | Oregon | |
| 2017 | 1 | 1 | Myles Garrett | DE | 21 | CLE | 1 | 3 | 37 | 30.5 | Texas A&M | |
| 2017 | 1 | 3 | Solomon Thomas | DE | 22 | SFO | 0 | 2 | 46 | 6 | Stanford | |
| 2018 | 1 | 5 | Bradley Chubb | DE | 22 | DEN | 0 | 1 | 20 | 13 | North Carolina St. | |
| 2019 | 1 | 2 | Nick Bosa | DE | 21 | SFO | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 9 | Ohio St. |
| 2019 | 1 | 4 | Clelin Ferrell | DE | 22 | OAK | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4.5 | Clemson |
If you want to go back through the whole decade, there are even more examples.
Khalil Mack was selected fifth in 2014 but was listed as a linebacker. We know better, as he was still an “edge” and his 61.5 sacks would lead this list if we start there.
Dante Fowler, also listed at linebacker, went No. 3 and has just 27.5 career sacks. But he still has made quite an impact.
Ezekiel Ansah was picked fifth in 2013, and while it would be difficult to call him a star, it would also be difficult to call him a bust when we are talking about another player who has amassed 50 sacks in the NFL.
And, of course, the greatest of them all, Von Miller, was picked second overall in 2011 and has 106 sacks to date.
Find me another position where pretty much every single edge rusher taken in the top five has turned into something special. The lone exception is Dion Jordan, who went third to Miami in 2013 and did not accomplish much – but, still, can any other spot on the field hold a candle to that?
And among top-10 players? Vic Beasley, Aldon Smith and Leonard Floyd are complex studies, but all have shown their quality – just not for long enough.
I guess the overall point here is that this position has the most translatable information that makes logical sense on Sundays. If a player is good enough to work his way into the elite of the elite in his draft year, our findings are telling us this position – primarily the ability to get sacks – has definitely found that success on Saturdays plus elite testing at the combine equals success on Sundays in the NFL.
And between Clowney in ’14, Mack in ’15, Bosa in ’16, Garrett in ’17, Chubb in ’18 and Bosa in ’19, we frequently come in contact with a sack master whom we think might be “the greatest prospect we have seen in years.” The good news is that each time, aside from Clowney in his early years, they almost instantly deliver results that are usually only found high in the draft.
Elite edge rushers don’t grow on trees, though. If you want one, you probably need to lose 13 games the year before. But if he emerges as the best the college ranks can offer going into a draft season – well, you tell me: Would you rather bank on the top quarterback or the top edge actually delivering on their promise? Let’s ask Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston and Sam Bradford.
I rest my case.
This year’s top prospect, Chase Young of Ohio State, might be the greatest of this entire group since Miller. Time will tell. But we are pretty sure he won’t last beyond the second pick in April.
What about the rest of these top prospects who specialize at wrecking plays, setting the edge and destroying QBs in a passing league? Are there more stars in this group beyond just Young?
We have a total of five to examine this week, so let’s find out.
In alphabetical order, they are:
K’Lavon Chaisson — LSU — 6’4 — 254
Chaisson is a very young prospect in more ways than one. He is just 20 years old and will not turn 21 until just before training camp. He also only played two years of high school football, and in three years at LSU, he only played 24 games due to a torn ACL in 2018 that caused him to miss nearly his entire sophomore season. However, he returned in 2019, and the longer the season went along, the more explosive he became. Chaisson made the first-team All-SEC in 2019 and was also the defensive MVP of the national semifinal against Oklahoma. He is the lightest edge of this group but has put on another five pounds since the bowl games.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: When you pop on the tape, Chiasson shows up as a stand-up edge who can turn the corner with a blur and also seems to have some dominance about him in his ability to convert speed into power as so many top edges can. He moves in every direction pretty well and seems to relish taking on his man at the point of attack with physicality. He has a very useful spin move and can flip his hips in space anytime he needs. He is fast and seems capable of putting on more weight as players in his range often do. Remember DeMarcus Lawrence’s weight when he was 20 years old (251) versus where he is today (270?). Chaisson looks like he will only get better with age, and while he does raise a few concerns, you have to rank him very highly when you look at outlier ability and potential. He is also thought of as a very solid character player in addition to one who has all of the twitch and bend in his body and frame you seek for this position.
Concerns: The concerns are based mostly on how little football he has played and how he emerged from nowhere this season after not having much of a resume as recently as this past summer. He does have some injury history, and he also is probably limited to the edge position. I am concerned about his ability to fully read what offenses are doing to him, as he appears to be the target of play-action fakes and using his aggressiveness against him with plays that target his get-off, but these are rather normal developmental hurdles that must be jumped. He will need to continue to grow his arsenal so he doesn’t get locked up on unsuccessful rushes so often. The biggest present concern might be his size and his utility at the next level. If you lined him up as a traditional 4-3 DE right away, teams would challenge him with the running game. He is more of a stand-up rusher for now, but I suspect he will be fine as he matures.
Overall: You certainly should be skeptical of a player with only 9.5 college sacks in his career, but you also should understand there are exceptions to the rule. We know Chaisson has played at the highest level, and was one of the most dominant players on a national championship roster from November onward this year. He still looks to have another level or two he can reach. These players make you think about Von Miller-types and the rarity of having one of them. There are questions to answer, for sure, but his ceiling is very high. I have no problem suggesting him as a FIRST-ROUND grade and also believing he should be a real consideration at No. 17 for Dallas.
AJ Epenesa — Iowa — 6’6 — 280
It sure seems that Iowa is turning into another NFL factory in the trenches, with offensive and defensive linemen continuing to emerge into the top ranks of each year’s draft classes (as well as tight ends, of course). Epenesa is another very impressive power-forward type who has immense height/weight and a frame that carries it easily. He was All Big-10 in 2018 and 2019 and basically put two monster seasons back to back as a sophomore and junior. He is of Samoan descent and has startling power.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: This is a very easy player to fall in love with because he flashes the total package at a size that demonstrates the ability to bully an offensive line. He has very impressive hands as well as a fluid frame and body that starts that alarming power, but he also flashes quickness. He has very impressive run-stopping ability, but his true value is found in his consistent numbers behind the line of scrimmage, as he destroys runs and passes for loss. He is a huge man with long arms, and left tackles at the Big 10 level had very little answer for him. Uncommon quickness and can really be a beast if you are just going to try to block him with one man. Don’t do it. I think he can play either defensive end spot for me.
Concerns: In looking at a number of different games, I did see a difference in disposition from game to game. When Epenesa really cranks it up, he appears to be unstoppable. But, of course, you want to be certain that he will be that guy every Sunday if you’re taking him in the first round. He does not have an elite burst, but all of the rest of his traits give you very little cause for concern. I don’t see much to worry about in this category.
Overall: I realize all evaluators have a type, and it is really possible that this player just appeals to what I look for in a defensive end. I think he can cause all sorts of problems with his height and weight when combined with his explosiveness, but he will also be doing most of it as a 4-3 mauler rather than a cheetah around the edge. As long as you know what type of player he is, he can be both a power rusher and a real run-stopping force. I like him plenty and would be happy to stick a FIRST-ROUND grade on him. I’d also suggest this should be a consideration in Dallas at no. 17.
Yetur Gross-Matos — Penn State — 6’5 — 265
Yet another edge rusher from the Big 10 on our plate. This Penn State product put up 34.5 tackles for loss with 17 sacks in the last two seasons on his way to All Big-10 First Team spots in both 2018 and 2019. He is another quick study in the developmental stages and has a backstory that is worth learning about as he dealt with considerable tragedy along the way. Now he arrives at the NFL Draft as a very interesting study with tremendous traits.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: Gross-Matos is another lanky edge with very long arms and power in his hands that allow him to use the straight-arm technique and get space to control his adversary in a number of ways. He has traits that can really be a problem and has a super-impressive body. There are games when he looks so quick and really just bursts past the line, then has a reasonable array of moves and counters that make you think he can really be something. He also has a solid pursuit and on third downs, you like to move him inside and watch him chase down issues with impressive closing speed. Running at him would not appear to be a fruitful endeavor.
Concerns: Honestly, it seems the biggest issue for him is his processing speed. Some players – Epenesa is one – seem to be scanning the offense as the play is going on and seeing things happen in front of them, whereas Gross-Matos seems to slow down when he surveys rather than just trying to beat the man in front of him. This instinctive processing skill can develop, of course, but in the meantime, it causes a player to often take himself out of plays by not seeing the bigger picture of what the offense is doing. This is vital for an edge player. Also, a classic case of inconsistency and playing way too high. If a taller player has too high a pad level, he can be thrown off balance too easily. Gross-Matos could use some technique to play lower and thus have a more sturdy base.
Overall: Again, I listed plenty of concerns, but I would also suggest this will remain a case where there aren’t many athletes on the planet built like this, and most of them sure weren’t racking up this many explosive plays at the level Penn State plays at these days. I would have some reluctance to go too high here, but if you want a player like this, it will probably have to be in the late FIRST-SECOND range. If he falls to No. 51, you run to the podium, but I don’t think he would get that far.
Julian Okwara — Notre Dame — 6’5 — 240
Okwara is the younger brother of Romeo, another Notre Dame product who has been in the NFL for a while now. Born in England and raised in Nigeria before moving the U.S., Okwara will miss the combine workouts due to a broken fibula he suffered back in November and is currently on the mend. Injuries, unfortunately, have been a theme over his four seasons at Notre Dame.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: There are some real positives to Okwara’s game that are easy to see, as he is a classic lanky and undersized edge, which means his chase ability and traits will jump off the screen at times. He is a stand-up edge, for sure, and he moves really well. He seems capable of capturing the corner against offensive linemen and that also seems like his one consistent route to the QBs. He repeatedly uses the swat move and has really long arms. There are a few games where he is simply dominant off the edge (Virginia).
Concerns: Unfortunately, I have quite a few. I saw an undersized edge with limited versatility that makes me believe he would start as a situational pass rusher or a 3-4 outside linebacker. He seemed to miss a few too many tackles for me and also gets driven way out on direct run plays. He can get bullied in the trenches; while that happens, you better have an overwhelming motor to compensate, and it did not appear to me that his was extraordinary. Very little sand or ballast to speak of, and while there are some very fine traits, I didn’t see enough to bet heavily on.
Overall: You can never have too many athletic edge candidates, but if you are going to take one in the first round, he had better be a complete player. If you take him in the second round, you had better believe he can develop into one. I am not sure there is enough here for my confidence levels, but I also am willing to keep an open mind for his future if he gets in the right situation. I don’t think that is Dallas, at all, but I think someone will like him in the late SECOND-THIRD round range.
Chase Young — Ohio State — 6’5 — 265
At some point, we should probably figure that Ohio State’s best edge rusher is pretty special, as this seems like an annual tradition here. But even after the Bosa brothers, we wonder if this is the new gold standard. Young won pretty much all the important awards a defensive player can win at the college level and is still just 20 years old as he heads to the NFL with as much promise as one could have. He needs no real introduction, as we will assume everyone reading this has a television. He is Chase Young.
(Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com)
Positives: So what makes him so dominant? Well, it is the rare combination of absurd physical talent and highly developed use of both feet and hands in such a way that he overwhelms opponents with a full toolbox of skills to pair with uncommon quickness and sudden traits. He makes everyone’s assignments easier on his defense because he attracts all of the bodies and still can get home. He takes over games and is relentless. He arrives with intent and can absolutely beat most opponents without even digging deep into his arsenal. He is every bit the player Myles Garrett was, and that is the ultimate compliment. He changes gameplans, and quarterbacks just get the ball out to avoid his trouble.
Concerns: There aren’t really any. Still, let’s nitpick here. He seems to really just keep using his swipe move when it looks like he underutilizes a very effective bullrush. I think everything comes easy to him so at times he might simplify when that helps his opponents. There isn’t much else to work with here. He is not full of excitement against the run, but he is fine.
Overall: Again, after seeing Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett and Nick Bosa all dominate at the college level, then step right in and look like a top-five edge in the NFL on Day 1, let’s not overthink this. Chase Young is in their class – and perhaps at the head of it. The way he destroyed everything in his path tells us that he might possibly be the very best player in this draft. QBs always get pushed up, but if you want the most special player in this entire thing, give me Young. I give him the maximum HIGH FIRST-ROUND grade and dust my hands off. Washington would be foolish not to grab him.
My Week 5 Edge Rusher stack looks like this:
