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Cowboys 2023 Draft: Underwhelming at best
Dallas had a chance to make a difference last spring and the draft side whiffed.
BOB STURM
JAN 24, 2024
Several Dallas Cowboys topics are currently brewing, and we'll continue to stay on top of them. However, this presents a great opportunity to delve into a year-end evaluation of the 2023 rookie class.
Many of you have inquired whether this is the worst draft class I've witnessed in Dallas. Of course, it's not. Firstly, they've just begun, and it's way too early to make a definitive judgment. I won't reiterate my mention of the Bill Walsh book, but you've probably heard me refer to the entire chapter discussing the challenges rookies face in the NFL. It's not just about football – although that alone is enough to cause a significant adjustment period – but also the extreme life changes a young man and his circle undergo. Walsh essentially assumed that every rookie would struggle, and the true test comes after being in the city for 12 months, knowing one's spot and routine, and starting a facility routine right after the Super Bowl to make the sophomore year much better in nearly every respect. That's when you'll truly understand a player.
This isn't a guarantee that every young player will reach his ceiling because variables are everywhere. Is his body holding up? Was his college evaluation accurate and a good fit for what we want to do? Did the money and lifestyle change his entire motivation and drive to be the best he can be? For every player aiming to conquer the football world, there are probably a handful whose mission is simply to make the NFL. Once you make the league, is your mission accomplished, and can you now enjoy your new life without working as hard? These, along with a dozen more questions, are why evaluating young men and projecting the next eight years of their lives is both a fool's errand and an endlessly enjoyable challenge.
But, I digress.
Typically, I provide a comprehensive evaluation of the draft class from three years ago. So, this offseason, expect a thorough look at the 2021 draft class because those are the guys we need to discuss regarding contract extensions in April and May. However, we have time to wait for that.
Today is simply an examination of how little the 2023 Draft has accomplished so far. Unfortunately, there's nothing positive to report about this rookie draft class the Cowboys have just produced. With eight picks, not a single one had what we would call an excellent rookie year.
Dallas had five rookies who actually played snaps, marking an excellent first step. They accumulated a total of 1,199 snaps from their rookie class. We'll provide a comparison shortly, but first, let's examine these five players with a convenient visual. The color coding will present three colors: the first indicating the total snaps, the second denoting snaps from scrimmage (offense or defense), and the third representing special teams snaps:
So, employing a straightforward measurement of 100 snaps from scrimmage – an average of roughly six per game – reveals that the Cowboys had only two players surpass that threshold. Unfortunately, these two, the Michigan Wolverines from Rounds 1 and 2, Mazi Smith and Luke Schoonmaker, have had what we would unequivocally describe as underwhelming rookie years.
It's essential to recognize that snap counts serve as a pure measure of quantity, not quality. We have to keep that in mind. Simultaneously, snap counts are the only currency teams can utilize to reward or penalize the quality of previous plays. For instance, if a player performs poorly, there's a call to get him out of there and cease playing him. Conversely, if a player excels, we observe an increase in their workload. While it's not a perfect measure of quality, it certainly holds significance.
With that perspective, here's the five-year report card. For each season, the top row represents the total snaps (offense, defense, special teams) for all draft picks in a season. The subsequent two rows delineate offense and defense for each of the last five years.
Since I utilized the five-year rolling numbers, it's evident that the 2023 draft class is disappointing for now but not as dire as the situation in 2019. Interestingly, even 2019 doesn't compare to the challenges faced in 2009, and it might be worth examining the scenarios in 2000 and 2001 before succumbing to exaggerated "prisoner of the moment" hyperbole.
Another crucial factor to note is that draft classes for struggling teams often boast massive snap counts annually due to widespread needs. When the Cowboys consistently win 12 games each year, it implies that most of their roster is well-fortified. On draft day 2023, many of us discussed the notion that the Cowboys seemed to have 22 starters set on their depth charts, suggesting that this draft could primarily serve to provide depth and replacements for upcoming free agents.
In essence, strategic moves like re-signing Jonathan Hankins in March and drafting Mazi Smith to learn from him in 2023 and replace him in 2024 are common procedures in the NFL. A forward-thinking team isn't merely filling present holes but rather planning one year ahead, anticipating scenarios where they might not want to continue business with the incumbent.
It's essential to recognize that the rookie class extends beyond draft picks. The Cowboys secured Brandon Aubrey, TJ Bass, and Hunter Luepke to this roster, each showing promise for the future. Aubrey appears to be an above-average NFL kicker on a cost-effective contract, TJ Bass could potentially start at left guard next year, and Luepke might see more action in the upcoming season. All these players are valuable additions, and the Cowboys have a reputation for successfully integrating undrafted free agents who contribute as effectively as anyone in the league over the years.
Here is our current roster sheet. Purple denotes Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) who are currently without a contract and will hit the market in March, unless Dallas reaches a deal beforehand. Yellow signifies Restricted Free Agents (RFA), but there is some uncertainty regarding Rico Dowdle's status; it's suggested he may actually be a UFA, though I haven't confirmed this.
As you can see, the number of names on the roster who predate Mike McCarthy’s hire in January of 2020 will continue to shrink. By my count, there may be only three or four left by training camp: Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and I suspect Cooper Rush. That is tough for our heads to process, but on average, every team has about 15 new players every season. It is really a four-year league.
Let’s wrap this up with a thought or two for each of the 2023 Cowboys Draft Picks:
1st Round - Mazi Smith, DT
I'm considering featuring Mazi in a more comprehensive evaluation this spring, but for now, let's not sugarcoat it – his performance was subpar, and there were several disconcerting indicators along the way. Firstly, there was a quote suggesting he didn't have much passion for football (while I usually try to overlook interview clips, this one has been cited frequently since he made the statement). Secondly, there's the mysterious weight loss from a player listed at 337 pounds, and by the end of the year, there were suggestions that he was "well below 300." What's the story behind this? The notion that he was instructed to lose weight became popular, but based on my behind-the-scenes work, this seems more like a rumor than a confirmed fact. I'm not implying he did it entirely on his own, and the Cowboys noticed it after the fact (some weight loss for a man of his size is within the norm for someone in their first NFL season), but there's a lot of talk behind the scenes about what transpired. In short, individuals in influential positions within this front office were displeased with him being significantly smaller after drafting him for his size.
Regardless, he made almost no splash plays and was attacked in the run game and his grades were quite poor. Again, I think he may be fine in 2024, but he really made a poor first impression. There are several players they could have taken in his spot that would have made a difference in 2023, but that is spilled milk now.
2nd Round - Luke Schoonmaker, TE
He did play a role as a rookie and was a decent blocker and an occasional target. He has plenty of room to grow and I am not really worried about his future as he is already better than Peyton Hendershot for me. But, to spend a pick this valuable (top 60) on a blocking tight end is a very rough decision for me. Now, to be fair, they did not know Jake Ferguson would take off like this at the time. But, looking back, the 2023 tight end class is fantastic for the first three rounds and Schoonmaker looks ordinary so far. The shouts for offensive line at that spot went ignored and still look like the right direction.
3rd round - DeMarvion Overshown, LB
Depending on your level of optimism, Overshown's preseason ACL injury is either A) the reason the Cowboys' linebacker situation unraveled because the initial plan was Leighton Vander Esch and Overshown or B) he is another small linebacker in the Dan Quinn mold, putting them in a similar position for 2024.
Personally, I have a positive view of him, but it's prudent to wait and see what unfolds next year. When we discuss the Cowboys' size concerns and then observe them listing Overshown at 220 pounds, there's a question of whether he is the solution many of us hope for. Regardless, he was sidelined for the entire year starting in August, and hopefully, his redshirt season has provided him with numerous mental reps for the future.
4th round - Viliami Fehoko, DE
He was injured in training camp and then injured again in November and never played a single snap and I don’t believe was active for a single game. I have seen him in person, so I know he exists, but anytime you draft a guy in Round 4, you would certainly like to think he makes one impression on someone in Year 1. I don’t believe he did.
5th round - Asim Richards, T
He played about 40 snaps from scrimmage with some at tackle and some at guard. He looks the part and there seem to be positive vibes about his future. At the same time, when they needed a guard they went with TJ Bass and when they needed a tackle they went with Chuma Edoga. So, I will say that I have optimism, but I also have no idea.
6th round - Eric Scott, CB
The Cowboys traded a 2024 5th rounder to move up and get Eric Scott in Round 6 and despite some testing numbers that were problematic, were very excited to have him on the roster. He received all sorts of buzz from the practice attendees in the media in June, but had a rough preseason and then sort of vanished. Again, not crazy for Day 3 guys to mostly redshirt, but tough to know much about him, except that they used a nice pick to secure him.
6th round - Deuce Vaughn, RB
Ah, the people’s champ who had me convinced they would make sure they used him a fair amount this year. They decided that Kavontae Turpin would be their gadget guy and so when teams started attacking him with blitzes, the alarms went off a bit. Then, the Cowboys makeover in Week 6 seemed to not include him. Is he a failure? No. But, the rookie year impressions were pretty non existent.
7th round - Jalen Brooks, WR
Brooks did exactly what you want a 7th round pick to do. Compete in camp, make some impressions, make the team, and by the end of the year force your way on to the game day roster by playing special teams at a reasonable level. It is way too early to know what they have here, but I am more than excited to see what lies ahead.
As you can see, eight players were brought in and there were a few underwhelming contributors, but mostly guys we never really saw. Not a disaster for the future, but also not really a help at all in their rookie season. Aside from the kicker, the Cowboys did not really help their roster much this year from the draft side of things. We will need to see what 2024 tells us for this group, but the early signs are not good.
Dallas had a chance to make a difference last spring and the draft side whiffed.
BOB STURM
JAN 24, 2024
Several Dallas Cowboys topics are currently brewing, and we'll continue to stay on top of them. However, this presents a great opportunity to delve into a year-end evaluation of the 2023 rookie class.
Many of you have inquired whether this is the worst draft class I've witnessed in Dallas. Of course, it's not. Firstly, they've just begun, and it's way too early to make a definitive judgment. I won't reiterate my mention of the Bill Walsh book, but you've probably heard me refer to the entire chapter discussing the challenges rookies face in the NFL. It's not just about football – although that alone is enough to cause a significant adjustment period – but also the extreme life changes a young man and his circle undergo. Walsh essentially assumed that every rookie would struggle, and the true test comes after being in the city for 12 months, knowing one's spot and routine, and starting a facility routine right after the Super Bowl to make the sophomore year much better in nearly every respect. That's when you'll truly understand a player.
This isn't a guarantee that every young player will reach his ceiling because variables are everywhere. Is his body holding up? Was his college evaluation accurate and a good fit for what we want to do? Did the money and lifestyle change his entire motivation and drive to be the best he can be? For every player aiming to conquer the football world, there are probably a handful whose mission is simply to make the NFL. Once you make the league, is your mission accomplished, and can you now enjoy your new life without working as hard? These, along with a dozen more questions, are why evaluating young men and projecting the next eight years of their lives is both a fool's errand and an endlessly enjoyable challenge.
But, I digress.
Typically, I provide a comprehensive evaluation of the draft class from three years ago. So, this offseason, expect a thorough look at the 2021 draft class because those are the guys we need to discuss regarding contract extensions in April and May. However, we have time to wait for that.
Today is simply an examination of how little the 2023 Draft has accomplished so far. Unfortunately, there's nothing positive to report about this rookie draft class the Cowboys have just produced. With eight picks, not a single one had what we would call an excellent rookie year.
Dallas had five rookies who actually played snaps, marking an excellent first step. They accumulated a total of 1,199 snaps from their rookie class. We'll provide a comparison shortly, but first, let's examine these five players with a convenient visual. The color coding will present three colors: the first indicating the total snaps, the second denoting snaps from scrimmage (offense or defense), and the third representing special teams snaps:
So, employing a straightforward measurement of 100 snaps from scrimmage – an average of roughly six per game – reveals that the Cowboys had only two players surpass that threshold. Unfortunately, these two, the Michigan Wolverines from Rounds 1 and 2, Mazi Smith and Luke Schoonmaker, have had what we would unequivocally describe as underwhelming rookie years.
It's essential to recognize that snap counts serve as a pure measure of quantity, not quality. We have to keep that in mind. Simultaneously, snap counts are the only currency teams can utilize to reward or penalize the quality of previous plays. For instance, if a player performs poorly, there's a call to get him out of there and cease playing him. Conversely, if a player excels, we observe an increase in their workload. While it's not a perfect measure of quality, it certainly holds significance.
With that perspective, here's the five-year report card. For each season, the top row represents the total snaps (offense, defense, special teams) for all draft picks in a season. The subsequent two rows delineate offense and defense for each of the last five years.
Since I utilized the five-year rolling numbers, it's evident that the 2023 draft class is disappointing for now but not as dire as the situation in 2019. Interestingly, even 2019 doesn't compare to the challenges faced in 2009, and it might be worth examining the scenarios in 2000 and 2001 before succumbing to exaggerated "prisoner of the moment" hyperbole.
Another crucial factor to note is that draft classes for struggling teams often boast massive snap counts annually due to widespread needs. When the Cowboys consistently win 12 games each year, it implies that most of their roster is well-fortified. On draft day 2023, many of us discussed the notion that the Cowboys seemed to have 22 starters set on their depth charts, suggesting that this draft could primarily serve to provide depth and replacements for upcoming free agents.
In essence, strategic moves like re-signing Jonathan Hankins in March and drafting Mazi Smith to learn from him in 2023 and replace him in 2024 are common procedures in the NFL. A forward-thinking team isn't merely filling present holes but rather planning one year ahead, anticipating scenarios where they might not want to continue business with the incumbent.
It's essential to recognize that the rookie class extends beyond draft picks. The Cowboys secured Brandon Aubrey, TJ Bass, and Hunter Luepke to this roster, each showing promise for the future. Aubrey appears to be an above-average NFL kicker on a cost-effective contract, TJ Bass could potentially start at left guard next year, and Luepke might see more action in the upcoming season. All these players are valuable additions, and the Cowboys have a reputation for successfully integrating undrafted free agents who contribute as effectively as anyone in the league over the years.
Here is our current roster sheet. Purple denotes Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) who are currently without a contract and will hit the market in March, unless Dallas reaches a deal beforehand. Yellow signifies Restricted Free Agents (RFA), but there is some uncertainty regarding Rico Dowdle's status; it's suggested he may actually be a UFA, though I haven't confirmed this.
As you can see, the number of names on the roster who predate Mike McCarthy’s hire in January of 2020 will continue to shrink. By my count, there may be only three or four left by training camp: Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and I suspect Cooper Rush. That is tough for our heads to process, but on average, every team has about 15 new players every season. It is really a four-year league.
Let’s wrap this up with a thought or two for each of the 2023 Cowboys Draft Picks:
1st Round - Mazi Smith, DT
I'm considering featuring Mazi in a more comprehensive evaluation this spring, but for now, let's not sugarcoat it – his performance was subpar, and there were several disconcerting indicators along the way. Firstly, there was a quote suggesting he didn't have much passion for football (while I usually try to overlook interview clips, this one has been cited frequently since he made the statement). Secondly, there's the mysterious weight loss from a player listed at 337 pounds, and by the end of the year, there were suggestions that he was "well below 300." What's the story behind this? The notion that he was instructed to lose weight became popular, but based on my behind-the-scenes work, this seems more like a rumor than a confirmed fact. I'm not implying he did it entirely on his own, and the Cowboys noticed it after the fact (some weight loss for a man of his size is within the norm for someone in their first NFL season), but there's a lot of talk behind the scenes about what transpired. In short, individuals in influential positions within this front office were displeased with him being significantly smaller after drafting him for his size.
Regardless, he made almost no splash plays and was attacked in the run game and his grades were quite poor. Again, I think he may be fine in 2024, but he really made a poor first impression. There are several players they could have taken in his spot that would have made a difference in 2023, but that is spilled milk now.
2nd Round - Luke Schoonmaker, TE
He did play a role as a rookie and was a decent blocker and an occasional target. He has plenty of room to grow and I am not really worried about his future as he is already better than Peyton Hendershot for me. But, to spend a pick this valuable (top 60) on a blocking tight end is a very rough decision for me. Now, to be fair, they did not know Jake Ferguson would take off like this at the time. But, looking back, the 2023 tight end class is fantastic for the first three rounds and Schoonmaker looks ordinary so far. The shouts for offensive line at that spot went ignored and still look like the right direction.
3rd round - DeMarvion Overshown, LB
Depending on your level of optimism, Overshown's preseason ACL injury is either A) the reason the Cowboys' linebacker situation unraveled because the initial plan was Leighton Vander Esch and Overshown or B) he is another small linebacker in the Dan Quinn mold, putting them in a similar position for 2024.
Personally, I have a positive view of him, but it's prudent to wait and see what unfolds next year. When we discuss the Cowboys' size concerns and then observe them listing Overshown at 220 pounds, there's a question of whether he is the solution many of us hope for. Regardless, he was sidelined for the entire year starting in August, and hopefully, his redshirt season has provided him with numerous mental reps for the future.
4th round - Viliami Fehoko, DE
He was injured in training camp and then injured again in November and never played a single snap and I don’t believe was active for a single game. I have seen him in person, so I know he exists, but anytime you draft a guy in Round 4, you would certainly like to think he makes one impression on someone in Year 1. I don’t believe he did.
5th round - Asim Richards, T
He played about 40 snaps from scrimmage with some at tackle and some at guard. He looks the part and there seem to be positive vibes about his future. At the same time, when they needed a guard they went with TJ Bass and when they needed a tackle they went with Chuma Edoga. So, I will say that I have optimism, but I also have no idea.
6th round - Eric Scott, CB
The Cowboys traded a 2024 5th rounder to move up and get Eric Scott in Round 6 and despite some testing numbers that were problematic, were very excited to have him on the roster. He received all sorts of buzz from the practice attendees in the media in June, but had a rough preseason and then sort of vanished. Again, not crazy for Day 3 guys to mostly redshirt, but tough to know much about him, except that they used a nice pick to secure him.
6th round - Deuce Vaughn, RB
Ah, the people’s champ who had me convinced they would make sure they used him a fair amount this year. They decided that Kavontae Turpin would be their gadget guy and so when teams started attacking him with blitzes, the alarms went off a bit. Then, the Cowboys makeover in Week 6 seemed to not include him. Is he a failure? No. But, the rookie year impressions were pretty non existent.
7th round - Jalen Brooks, WR
Brooks did exactly what you want a 7th round pick to do. Compete in camp, make some impressions, make the team, and by the end of the year force your way on to the game day roster by playing special teams at a reasonable level. It is way too early to know what they have here, but I am more than excited to see what lies ahead.
As you can see, eight players were brought in and there were a few underwhelming contributors, but mostly guys we never really saw. Not a disaster for the future, but also not really a help at all in their rookie season. Aside from the kicker, the Cowboys did not really help their roster much this year from the draft side of things. We will need to see what 2024 tells us for this group, but the early signs are not good.
